Who will be inaugurated Jan. 20, 2025?

[Swammerdami]

I don't see a thread to actually predict the winner of the Pres. election. I'll just report now on odds implied by the punters at Betfair.

Last summer, Trump and DeSantis had the #1 and #2 slots. In August DeSantis was ahead: 22% / 20% / 16%, with Biden as #3.

November it was 27% / 17% / 15% for DeSantis/Trump/Biden! Punters (and talking-heads) had not yet noticed that DeSantis was totally lacking in charm. (I have applied a slight Rothschild adjustment to the raw Betfair data.)

But by the recent 4th of July it was 33% / 27% / 9% Biden/Trump/DeSantis.

On August 2 it was 35% / 29% for Biden/Trump, with RFK, DeSantis, Newsom as also-rans, in that order.
I checked just now and it is 37% / 27% with (in order) Vivek Ramaswamy, DeSantis, RFK, Obama, Newsom as the top also-rans. (Trump is about 65% to win the GOP nomination, Vivek is about 9%, DeSantis is #3 for the nod, with Tim Scott a distant #4. Biden is 72% to get the Dem nod with Newsom a very distant #2.)

Kamala Harris is strongly favored to repeat as the Veep nominee for the Ds. Among Rs, Ramaswamy, Kari Lake, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley are contending for the Veep slot.

Every American who follows the news and is above moron-grade knows by now that Trump is a blatant criminal. That he still has a 27% chance of becoming POTUS #47 teaches us that America is gravely sick. It makes one sad to recall Leonard Cohen's 1992 hope.

(Betfair pays out in 2024 based on electoral-vote projections. In the (not-unlikely?) event that the GOP steals a Biden election and installs Trump, Betfair will pay the Biden tickets not the Trumps.)

 

[laughing dog]

Whomever it is, they won't be my first or second choice.

 

[Elixir]

Every American who follows the news and is above moron-grade knows by now that Trump is a blatant criminal. That he still has a 27% chance of becoming POTUS #47 teaches us that America is gravely sick.

Don’t sign our death certificate yet. Last polls I had seen before today had Joe&Don tied. Today’s polls asked “would you vote for Trump if he is nominated?” And 64% say no. I can’t retrieve my Predictit account, but wanted to load up on Trump:No before the bottom falls out of the market.

 

[Tigers!]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

 

[ZiprHead]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

There is one that happens to be all three. His name rhymes with Grump.

 

[TomC]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

One would think.

Unfortunately, it's the >320 millions part that kinda causes the problem. Coupled with our antiquated systems, honed by a couple centuries, to serve the purposes of their originators.
Wealthy, WASP, males in rural places.
And of course, heterosexual.
Tom

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

There's no one louder, more opinionated, more moronic and hypocritical than Trump. So, no one can possibly win in a Republican primary against Trump. All this talk about GOP contenders is lesser evil optimism. So, it's Trump on the GOP side, unless he becomes gravely ill.

For the race, I believe perception about the economy and how to fix inflation will be the major overlooked factor in who wins. If GOP plays that economic hand in marketing Trump and keeps pressure up on Hunter Biden conspiracies leading into Biden's impeachment...and other dirty tricks, Trump will win.

 

[Elixir]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

How elderly is elderly, Tigers!?
Biden is neither criminal nor stupid. Neither is his running mate, so I’m not too concerned that he is elderly.
That said… yeah. You’d think, right?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

Candidates aren't the problem. Getting people to vote for decency is. Evangelicals voted for the "grab them by the pussy" guy.

 

[Politesse]

Every American who follows the news

I suspect that most undecided voters haven't so much as started to think about who they are going to vote for, let alone assiduously follow the election news.

 

[TV and credit cards]

If Trump it must be and I don't take this particular path then hopefully someone from the right will run as an independent. Christie is likely to be the only one with the balls to do it. The rest of them just seem to be running a "if not him, then me" campaign. Christie/Cheney would be awesome.
I'd like to see Christie and Trump on the same debate stage just so Christie can make a fool of him.
If Republican big donors are sitting on the sidelines, they might break Christie's way leaving Trump with nothing but his his comically dressed faithful.

 

[jonatha]

If Trump it must be and I don't take this particular path then hopefully someone from the right will run as an independent. Christie is likely to be the only one with the balls to do it. The rest of them just seem to be running a "if not him, then me" campaign. Christie/Cheney would be awesome.
I'd like to see Christie and Trump on the same debate stage just so Christie can make a fool of him.
If Republican big donors are sitting on the sidelines, they might break Christie's way leaving Trump with nothing but his his comically dressed faithful.

Anyone who participates in the Republican primary and loses cannot run an effective third party campaign in the general because "sore loser" laws will keep them off the ballot in many states.

I hear Larry Hogan (former Republican governor of Maryland) dropped out of the GOP primary to preserve the ability to run against trump as a spoiler in November..

 

[TSwizzle]

Hard to say who it will be. But I will say with 100% certainty, it won't be Brandon.

 

[bilby]

Hard to say who it will be. But I will say with 100% certainty, it won't be Brandon.

Well obviously. He never wanted to be involved in politics, he just enjoys driving race cars.

 

[Elixir]

Hard to say who it will be. But I will say with 100% certainty, it won't be Brandon.

Funny … Predictit has Sleepy Joe at 45% and your boy in the mid/low 20s. I’d like to save your declaration, but I’ll leave this bit of wisdom instead:
”It’s not what we know, … it’s things we know that just ain't so.”

 

[Harry Bosch]

Hard to say who it will be. But I will say with 100% certainty, it won't be Brandon.

Well obviously. He never wanted to be involved in politics, he just enjoys driving race cars.

Yea, I'm puzzled over Swizzle's statement. Why would Brandon Brown run to run for president? It would be a huge drop in pay and half the country would hate your guts.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

As things stand, nearing re-election time, the US has been feeling shitty about their President since 2001. W, Obama, and Trump all had not so good ratings come the mid-term. W had a weak economy and Iraq, Obama was a Democrat who signed off on health care reform and the economy was slowly coming out of a massive global recession, and Trump... well... he polled better than Biden... and Biden is polling poorly because he got a couple major things passed in Congress with barely a majority is either chamber, tried to reduce college debt, fulfilled getting the US out of Afghanistan (in a messy, but ultimately better than average outcome) and the economy is growing... so again... he is a Democrat.

Hard to say who it will be. But I will say with 100% certainty, it won't be Brandon.

Well obviously. He never wanted to be involved in politics, he just enjoys driving race cars.

Yea, I'm puzzled over Swizzle's statement. Why would Brandon Brown run to run for president? It would be a huge drop in pay and half the country would hate your guts.

Well, then we are all in agreement with TSwizzle. Brandon Brown isn't going to be inaugurated in 2025. Nor will Chase Elliot, Alex Palou (not even American!), or Michael Andretti be inaugurated as well. Now Dark Brandon on the other hand....

 

[TSwizzle]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

Maybe it will be Kamala Harris !!

 

[TomC]

With > 320 million people you should be able to find some candidate(s) who are not criminal, elderly or just plain stupid.

Maybe it will be Kamala Harris !!

Could be.
Despite your slangy insults,
There's a strong likelihood that Biden will win the next election, with Kamala by his side.
If he kicks the bucket, Harris will be The Leader of the Free World.

Suck it.
Tom

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The word is the Rupert Murdoch has soured on Trump and DeSantis as losers. He is trying to get Governor Youngkin to run. Gonna piss Trump and DeSantis off big time.