Why Trump Will Win in 2020

[SLD]

Forget polls. It’s all about money. Repugs have it Dems don’t. With the economy continuing to do great, a lack of Dem resources and relatively uninspiring candidates they don’t stand a chance.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/21/opinions/dnc-uphill-battle-against-trump-isgur/index.html

New FEC reports were filed last night and the gulf continues to widen. The DNC raised under $7 million, with $8.6 million on hand and more than $7 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, raised more than $27 million and has over $59 million on hand with no debt. This means the Trump campaign and the RNC combined in the third quarter to raise over $125 million.
Add that to the multiple staff shakeups at various Democratic party committees and, well, yikes.
Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don't equal turnout.

Warren, the likely nominee, is despised by Wall Street. They will pour money into the RNC to defeat her. She won’t inspire sufficient African-American turnout. She won’t be able to afford the necessary ground game to get them moving.

We have a romantic and incompetent left and a brutal and elitist right. Guess who wins that match up. Trump.

On the bright side, the economy may go into a severe recession in the early 2020’s and maybe voters will wake up for 2024. Maybe.

SLD

 

[Elixir]

Forget polls. It’s all about money. Repugs have it Dems don’t. With the economy continuing to do great, a lack of Dem resources and relatively uninspiring candidates they don’t stand a chance.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/21/opinions/dnc-uphill-battle-against-trump-isgur/index.html

New FEC reports were filed last night and the gulf continues to widen. The DNC raised under $7 million, with $8.6 million on hand and more than $7 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, raised more than $27 million and has over $59 million on hand with no debt. This means the Trump campaign and the RNC combined in the third quarter to raise over $125 million.
Add that to the multiple staff shakeups at various Democratic party committees and, well, yikes.
Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don't equal turnout.

Warren, the likely nominee, is despised by Wall Street. They will pour money into the RNC to defeat her. She won’t inspire sufficient African-American turnout. She won’t be able to afford the necessary ground game to get them moving.

We have a romantic and incompetent left and a brutal and elitist right. Guess who wins that match up. Trump.

On the bright side, the economy may go into a severe recession in the early 2020’s and maybe voters will wake up for 2024. Maybe.

SLD

That's a pretty gloomy outlook... is there no possibility that the electorate will be collectively disgusted with attempts to purchase their credulity?
I mean, yeah, they can probably buy the WH for an asshole, but ... for an actual piece of shit? I'm not so sure.
What I am sure of, is that there will be no election in 2020 if Trump is re-installed (he was never elected in the first place).

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Forget polls. It’s all about money. Repugs have it Dems don’t. With the economy continuing to do great, a lack of Dem resources and relatively uninspiring candidates they don’t stand a chance.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/21/opinions/dnc-uphill-battle-against-trump-isgur/index.html

New FEC reports were filed last night and the gulf continues to widen. The DNC raised under $7 million, with $8.6 million on hand and more than $7 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, raised more than $27 million and has over $59 million on hand with no debt. This means the Trump campaign and the RNC combined in the third quarter to raise over $125 million.
Add that to the multiple staff shakeups at various Democratic party committees and, well, yikes.
Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don't equal turnout.

Warren, the likely nominee, is despised by Wall Street. They will pour money into the RNC to defeat her. She won’t inspire sufficient African-American turnout. She won’t be able to afford the necessary ground game to get them moving.

We have a romantic and incompetent left and a brutal and elitist right. Guess who wins that match up. Trump.

On the bright side, the economy may go into a severe recession in the early 2020’s and maybe voters will wake up for 2024. Maybe.

SLD

That's a pretty gloomy outlook... is there no possibility that the electorate will be collectively disgusted with attempts to purchase their credulity?
I mean, yeah, they can probably buy the WH for an asshole, but ... for an actual piece of shit? I'm not so sure.
What I am sure of, is that there will be no election in 2020 if Trump is re-installed (he was never elected in the first place).

There is no "the electorate." There are people, lots of whom vote and lots of whom do not. My instincts also point to a trump victory. It isn't the end of the world for me anymore than Obama was the end of all things for repugs.

I do wish lots of things were different but enough people will vote for trump. In my neighborhood there are two houses with Trump 2020 banners. Both have a history of problems with police, loud dogs in the yard, not much on education but play their right wing radio real loud in their yards. This is why Trumpo will win. It isn't undemocratic, it's just the state of things presently. It just reinforces for me the belief that until enough people are desperate for change, change does not happen.

There are plenty of jobs out there but all those new, low paying jobs are the norm, the people don't know any better. How could they? They're content. Trillion dollar deficits and billionaires don't matter to them. They don't care about shell companies or environmental change or extinct species, they don't even think about these things. They identify with being successful like Trump and hating liberals. They love it because they're not hungry enough, the government borrows to keep them fed and housed and keeps their taxes lower.

Get the idea?

 

[TSwizzle]

Forget polls. It’s all about money. Repugs have it Dems don’t. With the economy continuing to do great, a lack of Dem resources and relatively uninspiring candidates they don’t stand a chance.

New FEC reports were filed last night and the gulf continues to widen. The DNC raised under $7 million, with $8.6 million on hand and more than $7 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, raised more than $27 million and has over $59 million on hand with no debt. This means the Trump campaign and the RNC combined in the third quarter to raise over $125 million.
Add that to the multiple staff shakeups at various Democratic party committees and, well, yikes.
Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don't equal turnout.

Warren, the likely nominee, is despised by Wall Street. They will pour money into the RNC to defeat her. She won’t inspire sufficient African-American turnout. She won’t be able to afford the necessary ground game to get them moving.

We have a romantic and incompetent left and a brutal and elitist right. Guess who wins that match up. Trump.

On the bright side, the economy may go into a severe recession in the early 2020’s and maybe voters will wake up for 2024. Maybe.

SLD

I think you have to take into consideration who wrote this piece.

But it is incredible that a corrupt, possibly impeached buffoon such as Trump may be preferred to whatever the Dems offer up.

 

[Gun Nut]

What does money do for a candidate? I undestand that it costs money to travel around the country, promote events, post ads, etc...
But what else is it for? I mean... if it costs 20 million for all that.. what does another 20 million do for anyone? Spam even more ads?
Is that it? whomever has the most expensive / prevalent ads gets the votes? really?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Forget polls. It’s all about money. Repugs have it Dems don’t. With the economy continuing to do great, a lack of Dem resources and relatively uninspiring candidates they don’t stand a chance.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/21/opinions/dnc-uphill-battle-against-trump-isgur/index.html

New FEC reports were filed last night and the gulf continues to widen. The DNC raised under $7 million, with $8.6 million on hand and more than $7 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, raised more than $27 million and has over $59 million on hand with no debt. This means the Trump campaign and the RNC combined in the third quarter to raise over $125 million.
Add that to the multiple staff shakeups at various Democratic party committees and, well, yikes.
Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don't equal turnout.

Warren, the likely nominee, is despised by Wall Street. They will pour money into the RNC to defeat her. She won’t inspire sufficient African-American turnout. She won’t be able to afford the necessary ground game to get them moving.

We have a romantic and incompetent left and a brutal and elitist right. Guess who wins that match up. Trump.

On the bright side, the economy may go into a severe recession in the early 2020’s and maybe voters will wake up for 2024. Maybe.

SLD

There is no "the electorate." There are people, lots of whom vote and lots of whom do not. My instincts also point to a trump victory. It isn't the end of the world for me anymore than Obama was the end of all things for repugs.

I do wish lots of things were different but enough people will vote for trump. In my neighborhood there are two houses with Trump 2020 banners. Both have a history of problems with police, loud dogs in the yard, not much on education but play their right wing radio real loud in their yards. This is why Trumpo will win. It isn't undemocratic, it's just the state of things presently. It just reinforces for me the belief that until enough people are desperate for change, change does not happen.

There are plenty of jobs out there but all those new, low paying jobs are the norm, the people don't know any better. How could they? They're content. Trillion dollar deficits and billionaires don't matter to them. They don't care about shell companies or environmental change or extinct species, they don't even think about these things. They identify with being successful like Trump and hating liberals. They love it because they're not hungry enough, the government borrows to keep them fed and housed and keeps their taxes lower.

Get the idea?

B1Really? Strong feelings don't equal turnout? What a boneheaded statement. So people will get there dander up and stay home. Okay. Got it.

We'll see money flow once a nominee is picked. It will be enough and doesn't need to be all the money in the world.

B2No they're not. You don't need a high (the way it was) point of reference to know that trying to support a family off two fifteen dollar an hour jobs sucks.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

In Wisconsin, Trump won by a mere 11K votes. This is a state that went for Obama. Obama got 300,000 more votes than Clinton. Clinton ran a poor campaign. She took some states like Wisconsin for granted and made little effort, thinking these states were in the bag based on how well Obama did there. Trump was full of braggadocio and slogans and support from far right media. And that worked.

You can be sure that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will not make that mistake again. And now, Trump has a track record. And not an attractive one. This time around it will be Trump, not Clinton who is despised by many. Polls now show the swing states Trump won in 2016 are now sliding out of his reach.

Of course maybe he could do us all a favor and become so outrageous even the far right can no longer stomach him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUxSZeYJlhI

...
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have plunged in every key 2020 battleground state since he took office, including Republican strongholds like Texas and Georgia.
Trump’s approval rating fell from net-positive, meaning more people approve than disapprove, to net negative in nearly every battleground state, according to a Morning Consult tracking poll. His approval fell in Wisconsin from +3 to -14, in Michigan from +7 to -11, in Pennsylvania from +10 to -8, and in Florida from +22 to -1.
...


Poke him with a stick. Trump is roadkill.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Forget polls. It’s all about money. Repugs have it Dems don’t. With the economy continuing to do great, a lack of Dem resources and relatively uninspiring candidates they don’t stand a chance.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/21/opinions/dnc-uphill-battle-against-trump-isgur/index.html

New FEC reports were filed last night and the gulf continues to widen. The DNC raised under $7 million, with $8.6 million on hand and more than $7 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, raised more than $27 million and has over $59 million on hand with no debt. This means the Trump campaign and the RNC combined in the third quarter to raise over $125 million.
Add that to the multiple staff shakeups at various Democratic party committees and, well, yikes.
Voters have strong feelings about the President and about the direction of the Democratic Party. But feelings don't equal turnout.

Warren, the likely nominee, is despised by Wall Street. They will pour money into the RNC to defeat her. She won’t inspire sufficient African-American turnout. She won’t be able to afford the necessary ground game to get them moving.

We have a romantic and incompetent left and a brutal and elitist right. Guess who wins that match up. Trump.

On the bright side, the economy may go into a severe recession in the early 2020’s and maybe voters will wake up for 2024. Maybe.

SLD

I agree with your analysis. I think that the house will remain with the dems. We've got a shot in the senate. But I think that Trump will get reelected. I will vote for Warren. But she isn't business friendly in the least. There is a huge swath of left leaning moderates who are pro business that will have a difficult time voting for her. The Wall Street vote is huge. A democrat can't win the white house if they can't carry New York.

 

[Politesse]

What does money do for a candidate? I undestand that it costs money to travel around the country, promote events, post ads, etc...
But what else is it for? I mean... if it costs 20 million for all that.. what does another 20 million do for anyone? Spam even more ads?
Is that it? whomever has the most expensive / prevalent ads gets the votes? really?

Money is pretty good predictor of who will win elections

Can’t buy you love, but can buy you a duplex on Capitol Hill: We already know that the $4 billion spent on this midterm election was more than any other midterm in history. It was the most on congressional elections ever, including during a presidential year. What do the numbers really tell us? These two stats jumped out at us from a post-analysis done by the Center for Responsive Politics:
– 94 percent of biggest spenders in House races won, up slightly from 2012
– 82 percent of biggest spenders in Senate races won, up from 76 percent in 2012

Though this is at least partly the other way around, I think; candidates who are popular draw in money.

 

[PyramidHead]

Let's talk about money shall we

 

[Toni]

Can one win an election from prison?



JK: I'm (almost 100%) sure he won't be in prison but I am pretty sure he will be impeached and convicted.

I'm 100% sure that he only pulled his own hotel from the G7 conference because someone actually convinced him that was an impeachable offense. No matter, he commits so many. The truth is that after his openly and publicly calling on Russia to investigate his opponent with zero negative consequences for himself following, I can see why he thinks his behavior is a big nothing sandwich and why so many Republicans do as well. The first thing I thought when he said that was that it was a treasonous statement and he should immediately be removed from the ballot. He wasn't and I still don't understand why but perhaps that's just because I hate to think of the Republican party as a party of traitors. Oh, how one clings to hope!

 

[SLD]

As to the question of what money does, it buys you a ground game. A ground game gets you turn out. You can’t just rely on volunteers for that. But you need organizers and planners in every swing state. You need ads in there as well.

Trump's so called unpopularity will not be enough to defeat him. Polls are largely irrelevant as we learned in 2016.

I’m not saying the election is already decided, but it’s going to be very difficult to unseat Trump, especially during an economic boom. And the economy is going nowhere for the next year. The money plus the strong economy simply don’t bode well for any challenger.

 

[PyramidHead]

As to the question of what money does, it buys you a ground game. A ground game gets you turn out. You can’t just rely on volunteers for that. But you need organizers and planners in every swing state. You need ads in there as well.

Trump's so called unpopularity will not be enough to defeat him. Polls are largely irrelevant as we learned in 2016.

I’m not saying the election is already decided, but it’s going to be very difficult to unseat Trump, especially during an economic boom. And the economy is going nowhere for the next year. The money plus the strong economy simply don’t bode well for any challenger.

So, you talk about a "strong economy" as if that's a true fact that is experienced that way for everyone. In actuality, the majority of people have seen little to no improvement in their economic situation for decades, and are unable to save money for themselves and their families. This population has rightfully abandoned electoral politics, either because they don't have time to follow it, or because they rightfully believe that their vote won't change anything about their situation. Instead of trying to out-money the Republican death machine, the Democratic party should try to tap into this latent political force that has increasingly been duped into voting for populist Republicans.

 

[Gun Nut]

I am still not understanding how 10 billion dollars wins an election over 1 billion dollars... I mean, seeing a political ad once a day is one thing.. but seeing it every 10 minutes will make me want to go out and shoot that person to make all the damn ads stop already.

 

[PyramidHead]

I am still not understanding how 10 billion dollars wins an election over 1 billion dollars... I mean, seeing a political ad once a day is one thing.. but seeing it every 10 minutes will make me want to go out and shoot that person to make all the damn ads stop already.

It's not just ads, it's dinners with corporate and industry leaders, celebrity appearances on the campaign trail, kickbacks to media conglomerates who cover them favorably, internet campaigns to 'correct the record' whenever someone says something bad about their candidate... all that stuff is big money.

 

[repoman]

Trump should be impeached because of Ukraine even though I thinl that that CIA was illegally spying on him and the "whistleblower" is part of a parallel construction backwards justification. The CIA already spied on the senate with no punishment.

Parallel construction is a law enforcement process of building a parallel—or separate—evidentiary basis for a criminal investigation in order to conceal how an investigation actually began.

In the US, a particular form is evidence laundering, where one police officer obtains evidence via means that are in violation of the Fourth Amendment's protection against unreasonable searches and seizures, and then passes it on to another officer, who builds on it and gets it accepted by the court under the good-faith exception as applied to the second officer. This practice gained support after the Supreme Court's 2009 Herring v. United States decision.

It will be good to finally use impeachment and get a removal vote from the senate and have president who is laid low with no recourse.

Also Warren is a stealth partial sellout (still better than most) who will get lots of corporate money.

But Mayor Pete will do very well in a Trump matchup. The guy is unflappable.

ETA, after my post attempt was screwed up I forgot to reinclude that a Trump removal will leave a charisma lacking Pence with a hard campaign.

 

[PyramidHead]

Trump should be impeached because of Ukraine even though I thinl that that CIA was illegally spying on him and the "whistleblower" is part of a parallel construction backwards justification. The CIA already spied on the senate with no punishment.

Parallel construction is a law enforcement process of building a parallel—or separate—evidentiary basis for a criminal investigation in order to conceal how an investigation actually began.

In the US, a particular form is evidence laundering, where one police officer obtains evidence via means that are in violation of the Fourth Amendment's protection against unreasonable searches and seizures, and then passes it on to another officer, who builds on it and gets it accepted by the court under the good-faith exception as applied to the second officer. This practice gained support after the Supreme Court's 2009 Herring v. United States decision.

It will be good to finally use impeachment and get a removal vote from the senate and have president who is laid low with no recourse.

Also Warren is a stealth partial sellout (still better than most) who will get lots of corporate money.

But Mayor Pete will do very well in a Trump matchup. The guy is unflappable.

That's because he has no principles and stands for nothing, but go on

 

[Elixir]

There is no "the electorate." There are people, lots of whom vote and lots of whom do not.

Point taken.

My instincts also point to a trump victory.

My instincts warn of a Dem loss. they will need to totally fumble the ball to lose this one. I know they are more than capable of that...

In my neighborhood there are two houses with Trump 2020 banners. Both have a history of problems with police, loud dogs in the yard, not much on education but play their right wing radio real loud in their yards.

TO reiterate YOUR point, neighborhoods don't vote, people do.

As a purple State resident I know a lot of Trumpsters and a lot of progressives. It's hard not to notice that the progressives are fired up, angry and sad. The Trumpsters don't want to talk about it, and look at their shoes when pressed on character and supplication to dictators...
I am not entirely sure what that portends, but it is a far cry from their ebullient enthusiasm of 2016.

 

[Gun Nut]

I am still not understanding how 10 billion dollars wins an election over 1 billion dollars... I mean, seeing a political ad once a day is one thing.. but seeing it every 10 minutes will make me want to go out and shoot that person to make all the damn ads stop already.

It's not just ads, it's dinners with corporate and industry leaders, celebrity appearances on the campaign trail, kickbacks to media conglomerates who cover them favorably, internet campaigns to 'correct the record' whenever someone says something bad about their candidate... all that stuff is big money.

All that shit should be fucking illegal... not just foreign interests... corporate interests... Corporations are just as "foreign" in their goals as any non-American individual entity.

Since when is a "Servant" (as in "Public Servant") supposed to be either rich or powerful? Public servants should have as much material interest as a Monk.

 

[Elixir]

I am still not understanding how 10 billion dollars wins an election over 1 billion dollars... I mean, seeing a political ad once a day is one thing.. but seeing it every 10 minutes will make me want to go out and shoot that person to make all the damn ads stop already.

It's not just ads, it's dinners with corporate and industry leaders, celebrity appearances on the campaign trail, kickbacks to media conglomerates who cover them favorably, internet campaigns to 'correct the record' whenever someone says something bad about their candidate... all that stuff is big money.

All that shit should be fucking illegal... not just foreign interests... corporate interests... Corporations are just as "foreign" in their goals as any non-American individual entity.

Since when is a "Servant" (as in "Public Servant") supposed to be either rich or powerful? Public servants should have as much material interest as a Monk.

Can you say "Citizens United"?