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Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

Jimmy Higgins said:
Tom Sawyer said:
Dude, this is real life, not a horror movie. When monsters and Republicans pass by your house, you hide until they're gone. You don't start taking videos and risking their noticing you.
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Kind of like the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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Ya, the Toronto Maple Leafs don't need to worry about anybody noticing them.
 
Could you imagine a brokered republican convention, with this crowd? Could you especially imagine it if Trump has the most votes, but not a majority, and three or more other candidates combine to block him? Holy shit.

And being republicans, what if they bring guns to their convention?
 
In addition to appealing to white racists and Christian fundies (the overlap is uuuuge), he also has the fame appeal and the GOP has proven it represents millions of morons willing to let fame greatly impact their choice of political leaders, no matter how frighteningly unqualified for the job. Plus, he is rich and the GOP base is dumb enough to view wealth as strong indicator of moral goodness and intellect (God's blessing for such traits has been a pervasive view in American Protestantism since the colonies). Then their are the free-market faithers whose sole concern is protecting the wealth of the 1% (even when they themselves are not in it). They don't value anything else enough to be bothered by Trump's grotesque immorality and near certain negative impact on international relations and peace. As long as they think he will gut corporate regulations and taxes on the rich (and he will), he is their man.

IOW, yes he can very well win the GOP, unless he makes some extreme moral fuck-up that even the above groups can't overlook. As a man sensitive to probabilities, its hard to pick him against the whole rest of the field, but his odds are better than any other individual candidate at this point.
 
Some analysts think there may be a threat that the moderate Republicans may start a third party effort if Trumps wins the nomination. The thinking is, he'd lose to Hilary, but by breaking away, moderate republicans can pick up the pieces of the broken party later and regain control. If they don't repudiate Trumpism, they may doom the GOP as a repulsive extremist party.
 
ronburgundy said:
IOW, yes he can very well win the GOP, unless he makes some extreme moral fuck-up that even the above groups can't overlook. As a man sensitive to probabilities, its hard to pick him against the whole rest of the field, but his odds are better than any other individual candidate at this point.
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But the GOP backroomers know that a Trump nomination could make the landslide in '10 for the Republicans look like nothing. They have 20 or so seats up in the Senate, and as things stand now, they will lose the Senate again. With Trump running, they could lose the Senate by a notable margin.

They know Trump is poison to the party, but they aren't certain how to deal with it. I think they probably know they can steal the nomination from him and not worry about too much backlash. '16 is probably less about the White House to them than trying to keep the Senate and holding the House.

Regarding the moderate Republicans breaking, what moderate Republicans? There are no William Welds in the party any more. I suppose you could say Suzanne Collins, but really, you are talking about a literal handful of representatives.
 
SLD said:
Just the nomination. Not the election.

<deleted photo>

This is the GOP. It is at its core, white and racist. Saying that Muslims will be thrown out of the country and made to wear an identification badge is exactly what they want to hear. Trump will be the nominee.
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The core of the GOP is still $$$. The racist red lemmings are akin to rats..and trump is tooting the right tune. It is still extremely unlikely that Trump will win the nomination, as he has no political/military background. The polls are one of the least useful indicators even now just 50 or so days left until the first state caucus/vote. He is still only grabbing 30% at the most in some polls.

He probably won't win Iowa. He may win New Hampshire. Once the Repug primary shoots into super Tuesday, Trump will be crashing. He may spend his own money to pretend to be in the race, but this is a far more probable outcome than 'bigots for Trump' analysis.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
Sarpedon said:
Not only are there no non-whites, I can see only a few dark-haired people. Christ!
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I thought I saw a hispanic, but it was just a guy with a tan.

I think that the GOP is finally beginning to realize that they've created Frankenstein's Monster here and are getting ready to chase it up to the Arctic. Hopefully, it will work out just as well as it did in the book.
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They won't chase it anywhere. It's who votes for them.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
As seen in the last couple of days, Trump will not be the nominee, the Republican Establishment will prevent it. You'll notice how quickly the candidates raced to somewhat call out Trumps statement as kind of wrong! At this point the Republicans have finally picked up on why the Democrats wouldn't mind a Trump nomination. Some of his supporters were / are deluded enough because we are scared he'd beat Clinton. The truth is, he is starting to "tarnish" the Republican brand among the indie's and moderates. Those that don't pay much attention to politics will see Republican nominee leader making these statements on the front cover of the newspaper. They'll dismiss it as ludicrous and think the Republican party is nuts (which really isn't too inaccurate).

So the Republican Establishment is already making waves.

The trouble becomes the delegate issue. Right now, no one is winning the nomination unless Trump finally deflates. The competition is too broken up. It seems impossible for Trump to ride the primaries to an all out nomination. But what apparently seems also unlikely is Trump going away, as his support apparently is from right-wingers who don't normally vote. Which means he can't out crazy himself out of the polls. The delegates may be split and split and split amongst the Cruzers (idiot evangelicals), Trumps (idiot racists), and Rubios (establishment Republicans who crapped on inexperienced Obama but swallowing pride and voting Rubio who is of somewhat similar experience).

Which then causes more trouble, a brokered convention and a very likely Trump speech at the Republican Convention, where Trump may say "You'd be better off voting for Hillary Clinton over the douche the Republicans have nominated here."

In order to run as an Independent, Trump actually has deadlines to meet to get on the ballot. Depending on how IA, NH, and SC turnout, it may be too late to make an Indy run if he is accumulating too many Republican delegates. After SC, it may likely be Trump and Cruz running head and head, Rubio back in third trying to scratch through. What is funny is that the Republicans want a Cruz nomination only slightly more than a Trump nomination.
Nice Squirrel said:
I thought she was photoshopped in from another photo. Is she looking behind Trump?

Like there is something behind the Donald she is afraid of...
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I think that is a high quality photoshop if it is. Lighting is perfect, shadows are good and the woman behind her reaching out is spot on.
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How can the establishment stop him? Granted they want to. But if he wins the votes, he wins the delegates. He wins the delegates, he wins the nomination. Of course if they own the ballot counting machines, then maybe they could make a difference.

SLD
 
SLD said:
How can the establishment stop him? Granted they want to. But if he wins the votes, he wins the delegates. He wins the delegates, he wins the nomination. Of course if they own the ballot counting machines, then maybe they could make a difference.

SLD
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Super Delegates mainly.
 
I would like a debate between Jesus and Trump, just to see how these people would totally freak out.

fG
 
A lot of faith is being put in the GOP Establishment.

What evidence does anyone have that this Establishment has not been co-opted by the fundies, fanatics, and would-be fascists that populated the rank and file? g

What evidence does anyone have that elements within this Establishment don't hold the views of Trump all on their own?
 
And why a Trump Presidency would be a disaster: 3000,000 here (already) petitioning Parliament to keep the hater-speaker from coming into this Country again.
 
faded_Glory said:
I would like a debate between Jesus and Trump, just to see how these people would totally freak out.

fG
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A person can construct any image of Jesus they want.

Sure in the stories he preached non-violence and not caring for material possessions.

But you have to be able to read to know that.
 
AthenaAwakened said:
A lot of faith is being put in the GOP Establishment.

What evidence does anyone have that this Establishment has not been co-opted by the fundies, fanatics, and would-be fascists that populated the rank and file? g

What evidence does anyone have that elements within this Establishment don't hold the views of Trump all on their own?
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The GOP establishment wants one thing, most of all. Money. Trump threatens that by putting into motion a massive landslide loss in 2016 (in the House and Senate). None of the big donor names are going for Trump, they are edging to Rubio and Cruz (for some reason).
 
untermensche said:
faded_Glory said:
I would like a debate between Jesus and Trump, just to see how these people would totally freak out.

fG
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A person can construct any image of Jesus they want.

Sure in the stories he preached non-violence and not caring for material possessions.

But you have to be able to read to know that.
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The holy buggers who started colonialism in America went there to make money, which was supposed to prove they were holy. Reading the New Testament would have confused even further their heretical Judaism.
 
untermensche said:
faded_Glory said:
I would like a debate between Jesus and Trump, just to see how these people would totally freak out.

fG
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A person can construct any image of Jesus they want.

Sure in the stories he preached non-violence and not caring for material possessions.

But you have to be able to read to know that.
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He is also quoted as saying to pray in a closet, not out in the open.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
AthenaAwakened said:
A lot of faith is being put in the GOP Establishment.

What evidence does anyone have that this Establishment has not been co-opted by the fundies, fanatics, and would-be fascists that populated the rank and file? g

What evidence does anyone have that elements within this Establishment don't hold the views of Trump all on their own?
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The GOP establishment wants one thing, most of all. Money. Trump threatens that by putting into motion a massive landslide loss in 2016 (in the House and Senate). None of the big donor names are going for Trump, they are edging to Rubio and Cruz (for some reason).
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That doesn't answer the questions. The party has been and continues to move to the right and you think what? That the Establishment is somehow fighting this move, or are they orchestrating it? How many true believers are in the GOP Establishment? It has been nearly 35 years since the Reagan revolution, more than enough time to have zealots move up in the ranks of the elite within the party, more than enough time to convert more traditional republicans to the cause. Believers in Dominionism count among their number billionaires, national politicians, and legions in the clergy. These are people who still frequent restricted clubs, not because of the money, but because they believe spearchuckers and Christkillers are beneath them.

The events of life are seldom if ever just about the money. And more people in this 'Establishment' agree with Trump than most people realize.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
AthenaAwakened said:
A lot of faith is being put in the GOP Establishment.

What evidence does anyone have that this Establishment has not been co-opted by the fundies, fanatics, and would-be fascists that populated the rank and file? g

What evidence does anyone have that elements within this Establishment don't hold the views of Trump all on their own?
Click to expand...
The GOP establishment wants one thing, most of all. Money. Trump threatens that by putting into motion a massive landslide loss in 2016 (in the House and Senate). None of the big donor names are going for Trump, they are edging to Rubio and Cruz (for some reason).
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It is not just that establishment money will "stop" Trump from winning. A better way to say it IMPOV, is to ask why anyone thinks Trump will win the nomination at this point. Are the polls the evidence? Or just what is the evidence that Trump will win the nomination? If the polls are the reason, than one really needs to take a hard look at the value of past polls. Either that, or I can sell the person some really good ocean beach front property in Arizona at a great deal...
 
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