Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

[Jimmy Higgins]

The GOP establishment wants one thing, most of all. Money. Trump threatens that by putting into motion a massive landslide loss in 2016 (in the House and Senate). None of the big donor names are going for Trump, they are edging to Rubio and Cruz (for some reason).

That doesn't answer the questions. The party has been and continues to move to the right and you think what? That the Establishment is somehow fighting this move, or are they orchestrating it? How many true believers are in the GOP Establishment? It has been nearly 35 years since the Reagan revolution, more than enough time to have zealots move up in the ranks of the elite within the party, more than enough time to convert more traditional republicans to the cause. Believers in Dominionism count among their number billionaires, national politicians, and legions in the clergy. These are people who still frequent restricted clubs, not because of the money, but because they believe spearchuckers and Christkillers are beneath them.

The events of life are seldom if ever just about the money. And more people in this 'Establishment' agree with Trump than most people realize.

I started a detailed response, but then was thinking maybe I giving some people too much credit. The right-wing does want to kill Griswold v Connecticut. The right-wing does want to kill the Federal Government. Some of the right-wing does want to criminalize gay sex.

Does the right-wing establishment hate blacks? I try not to go there because the conversation usually goes to hell. We know that the right-winger attack dogs have used race and religion against Obama to rile up the base. But how much is to use racism and bigotry for turnout and how much for propagating hate?

 

[faded_Glory]

I would like a debate between Jesus and Trump, just to see how these people would totally freak out.

fG

A person can construct any image of Jesus they want.

Sure in the stories he preached non-violence and not caring for material possessions.

But you have to be able to read to know that.

That's why a debate would freak them out. Jesus would wipe the floor with Trump on national television, and these nutters would be totally lost on whom to support.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The GOP establishment wants one thing, most of all. Money. Trump threatens that by putting into motion a massive landslide loss in 2016 (in the House and Senate). None of the big donor names are going for Trump, they are edging to Rubio and Cruz (for some reason).

It is not just that establishment money will "stop" Trump from winning. A better way to say it IMPOV, is to ask why anyone thinks Trump will win the nomination at this point. Are the polls the evidence? Or just what is the evidence that Trump will win the nomination? If the polls are the reason, than one really needs to take a hard look at the value of past polls. Either that, or I can sell the person some really good ocean beach front property in Arizona at a great deal...

Trump is polling well enough to indicate he can win delegates. Three of the first four primaries are proportional states. South Carolina (a possible Cruz victory) is a win all state. Super Tuesday are almost all proportional. This means if Trump finishes top three in a close races, he is siphoning delegates and preventing others from winning.

Trump wouldn't win the nomination, but I think it is possible that if he does well enough, he can prevent another from getting the nomination outright as well. Which is where the Super Delegates come into play, in an attempt to stack the deck for a candidate. But the GOP doesn't want Cruz either.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Are you indicating a convention battle?

Cleveland 2016: The Rumble of the Bung Hole?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are you indicating a convention battle?

The GOP don't want it to end in the Convention. They don't want Trump within 100 miles of Cleveland... neither do we.

But the question remains, who is the leading candidate whose name isn't Trump. Does the GOP want him to be the candidate. And how in the fucking heck did the Republicans manage to get so many people in the primary they don't want to be the candidate?!

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Are you indicating a convention battle?

The GOP don't want it to end in the Convention. They don't want Trump within 100 miles of Cleveland... neither do we.

But the question remains, who is the leading candidate whose name isn't Trump. Does the GOP want him to be the candidate. And how in the fucking heck did the Republicans manage to get so many people in the primary they don't want to be the candidate?!

That is the most interesting thing. The Dems have Clinton and Sanders, both of whom have a large contingent in the party who actually want to see them become President because they like them. The GOP have a large group of people whom they're mostly ambivalent about and they're trying to figure out who doesn't suck quite as much as the others. That's why you see things like one guy becoming popular until the voters get a look at him and then he drops off the radar until someone else becomes popular for a while before dropping away. It's because they're largely interchangable due to nobody giving a particular shit about any of them.

 

[braces_for_impact]

The GOP is trying to plan for a Trump win and Trump loss, and really don't know what to do. I keep seeing people and the media saying that the other candidates are aligning against him. When? Where? They are not. They have the same message as he does, they just code it better and are a bit more subtle about it in public. The latest "backlash" is over Trump saying no Muslims allowed in the US? So what? The same candidates that repudiate him for those comments are the same candidates that suggested we should only allow Christians within our borders which is effectively the same thing. There was very little backlash for those comments, just mere mentions of it in the media. The GOP has the advantage in that far from the critical left wing media bias they claim, the media IS guilty of having very low expectations of them.

They're just in damage control mode at this point, (trying not to lose the entire executive and legislative branches in one fell swoop) and the whole party is in disarray, which is the one bright spot in this otherwise clusterfuck that Trump has brought out into the sunlight for all to see. With some luck, we'll get a true progressive in the presidency, with major gains in the house and senate and enact some real left wing reform and policies.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The GOP don't want it to end in the Convention. They don't want Trump within 100 miles of Cleveland... neither do we.

But the question remains, who is the leading candidate whose name isn't Trump. Does the GOP want him to be the candidate. And how in the fucking heck did the Republicans manage to get so many people in the primary they don't want to be the candidate?!

That is the most interesting thing. The Dems have Clinton and Sanders, both of whom have a large contingent in the party who actually want to see them become President because they like them. The GOP have a large group of people whom they're mostly ambivalent about and they're trying to figure out who doesn't suck quite as much as the others. That's why you see things like one guy becoming popular until the voters get a look at him and then he drops off the radar until someone else becomes popular for a while before dropping away. It's because they're largely interchangable due to nobody giving a particular shit about any of them.

They aren't quite interchangeable. What happened, what no one saw coming, was Trump stole the wind out of Cruz's, Paul's, and Christie's sails. Rubio was tacking early from the Tea Party side because that side was getting crowded. So Rubio was running for VP, along side with Carly Fiorina, but then all of a sudden Jeb Bush, the best candidate (?), forgot how to run for office and has been struggling with the press apparently remembering the George W. Bush years.

With the establishment pick already looking bad, there was a reshuffling with Rubio making himself top establishment pick.

But we are left with the other people, the Libertarian-Lite Paul, the Used Car Salesman Iselin Cruz, the loud mouth Christie who is an establishment level player, and Trump. Trump has out loud mouthed Christie, and stolen the wind out of Paul's sails, while having Cruz playing the long con ground game to win Super Tuesday. Trump has effectively corned on the crazy, giving some candidates nothing to speak on.

Meanwhile Clinton is probably looking at the VP selection list and Julian Castro is close to the top, ready to absolutely destroy the Republican candidate in the Electoral College. The question is, how does it go down in the House and Senate?

 

[untermensche]

In other words, today in the Republican party the crazier you are the more popular you are.

It is a party filled with idiots.

 

[funinspace]

It is not just that establishment money will "stop" Trump from winning. A better way to say it IMPOV, is to ask why anyone thinks Trump will win the nomination at this point. Are the polls the evidence? Or just what is the evidence that Trump will win the nomination? If the polls are the reason, than one really needs to take a hard look at the value of past polls. Either that, or I can sell the person some really good ocean beach front property in Arizona at a great deal...

Trump is polling well enough to indicate he can win delegates. Three of the first four primaries are proportional states. South Carolina (a possible Cruz victory) is a win all state. Super Tuesday are almost all proportional. This means if Trump finishes top three in a close races, he is siphoning delegates and preventing others from winning.

I said there is no reason to suspect Trump will win the nomination. That says nothing about Trump not winning any delegates. Trump will most likely not come in first nor second in Iowa, just like Newt came in 4th even though he was polling on top just like Trump is now.. He may win NH, but that is only a plausible outcome, not probable. By super Tuesday, he could still be pulling in some delegates, I suspect that the red lemmings will see that he is truly a fading star by this date.

Trump wouldn't win the nomination, but I think it is possible that if he does well enough, he can prevent another from getting the nomination outright as well. Which is where the Super Delegates come into play, in an attempt to stack the deck for a candidate. But the GOP doesn't want Cruz either.

Yeah, it is possible for Trump to do this, but I still think it is little more than wishful thinking at this point. Excited talk of brokered conventions is the fair of almost every election cycle...

 

[ideologyhunter]

I'm lovin it. The GOP absolutely created this candidacy. It goes back at least as far as Boehner refusing to state that T's birtherism was hateful nonsense and the twaddle of a scoundrel. Quote: "It's not my business to tell the American people what to think."
With DJT, all bets are off. Back in May nearly every broadcast pundit was saying that he would deflate over the summer. Every time he's made an ugly statement, the same chorus is heard. None of it matters -- truly a pathetic comment on the G.O.P. faithful (although I've yet to read a conservative columnist who's ready to admit that the Redhead's campaign says anything about the party.) The new spin on him is that he knows he can't be President, that he just craves the attention, that he may even be attempting to blow up his own candidacy...I think he's simply unknowable. What an awful spectacle he's making in the world community -- how are we going to live this down? He's like a fictional character out of Sinclair Lewis or Robert Penn Warren. And how the hell can people who like his "positions" get past his unrestrained, ridiculously exaggerated bragging? "You won't believe how great I'll be at (fill in the blank.)" Didn't any of his fans have a grandmother like mine who told him/her that boastfulness was unbecoming? In T's case, the grandmother should have said, "Don't be a dick."

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Are you indicating a convention battle?

The GOP don't want it to end in the Convention. They don't want Trump within 100 miles of Cleveland... neither do we.

But the question remains, who is the leading candidate whose name isn't Trump. Does the GOP want him to be the candidate. And how in the fucking heck did the Republicans manage to get so many people in the primary they don't want to be the candidate?!

Well, no one picks THE candidate and anoints him, the perfect candidate. So anybody and their dog can run. And do. What matters is the base. a semi-reasonable candidate like Kaish does not poll well in an environment filled with yowling savages. Why don't more decent possible candidates want to run? Its a very hard and ugly project many of the best simply don't have the heart to endure. And after the collapse of Bush's efforts that will only get worse. All those big PACs and support of the party elite didn't help. So others henceforth will have to face facts, the savages do the nominating, Witness Trumps poll numbers. Many people here may remember George Wallace's American party taking 10% of the vote setting the GOP Southern Strategy into motion. To win you had to pander to the savages. But now you can't win pandering to the reasonable people. Trump may well win the nomination and lose the election. What happens to the GOP then will be damned interesting to watch. I don't see anybody on the horizon who can straighten this all out as a white knight here to save the GOP. which all reasonable possible GOP candidates will recognize is the problem.

 

[ksen]

A person can construct any image of Jesus they want.

Sure in the stories he preached non-violence and not caring for material possessions.

But you have to be able to read to know that.

That's why a debate would freak them out. Jesus would wipe the floor with Trump on national television, and these nutters would be totally lost on whom to support.

No they wouldn't. They'd be first in line to crucify Christ again.

 

[untermensche]

That's why a debate would freak them out. Jesus would wipe the floor with Trump on national television, and these nutters would be totally lost on whom to support.

No they wouldn't. They'd be first in line to crucify Christ again.

I agree, and it is very ironic that the people who shout the loudest about Jesus are the people that don't seem to have read a word he allegedly said.

 

[Sarpedon]

The GOP don't want it to end in the Convention. They don't want Trump within 100 miles of Cleveland... neither do we.

If anything is clear, it is that what they want isn't relevant, because they are not driving. I used to think the Democratic system of 'superdelegates' was oligarchical and suspect. Now I see why such a thing is useful.

 

[funinspace]

No they wouldn't. They'd be first in line to crucify Christ again.

I agree, and it is very ironic that the people who shout the loudest about Jesus are the people that don't seem to have read a word he allegedly said.

Oh many of the fundagelicals read the words, they just have on their specially colored glasses when they read. The fundagelicals seem fairly close to what the purported Jesus appeared to despise within those Gospels...aka the Pharisee's; but they are blind to it.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The GOP don't want it to end in the Convention. They don't want Trump within 100 miles of Cleveland... neither do we.

If anything is clear, it is that what they want isn't relevant, because they are not driving. I used to think the Democratic system of 'superdelegates' was oligarchical and suspect. Now I see why such a thing is useful.

The problem is that the elitist Washington insiders who think that they run the party know that they can't afford to alienate the rather large segment of the party which supports Trump. Any chance that they have of winning the White House involves sqeaking past Clinton with slightly over 50% of the vote in a few key states. If they just diss him and rally against him at the convention despite him having a good deal of support, those people will stay home on election day and they lose anyways. That is, of course, countered by the fact that if they don't distance themselves enough from him, it will motivate others to come out and vote against them and they don't want that either. They're between a rock and a hard place and they really have no idea what it is they need to do.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump is polling well enough to indicate he can win delegates. Three of the first four primaries are proportional states. South Carolina (a possible Cruz victory) is a win all state. Super Tuesday are almost all proportional. This means if Trump finishes top three in a close races, he is siphoning delegates and preventing others from winning.

I said there is no reason to suspect Trump will win the nomination. That says nothing about Trump not winning any delegates. Trump will most likely not come in first nor second in Iowa, just like Newt came in 4th even though he was polling on top just like Trump is now..

I wouldn't pair the two situations together. There was gross instability in candidate polling in '12 because of the whimsy of the Republican electorate. I don't see Trump winning Iowa, but a tight top three seems quite reasonable at this point. And the delegate count is what matters.

He may win NH, but that is only a plausible outcome, not probable. By super Tuesday, he could still be pulling in some delegates, I suspect that the red lemmings will see that he is truly a fading star by this date.

I didn't think he'd make it to Iowa, and for all intents and purposes, he should have left months ago based on the things he has said, but he has steadfast (brain dead) support that just isn't going away.

Trump wouldn't win the nomination, but I think it is possible that if he does well enough, he can prevent another from getting the nomination outright as well. Which is where the Super Delegates come into play, in an attempt to stack the deck for a candidate. But the GOP doesn't want Cruz either.

Yeah, it is possible for Trump to do this, but I still think it is little more than wishful thinking at this point. Excited talk of brokered conventions is the fair of almost every election cycle...

That is one scenario, which can be dealt with by Super Delegates. But the issue becomes if Trump has a good amount of delegates, and these people are "true believers", there will be a force for him to speak at the convention. If he finally whimpers away by Super Tuesday, then the issue does disappear. It is just things have gotten much further than they should have which is really causing uncertainty with the primaries. There are three main candidates courting three different groups, Rubio (establishment), Cruz (evangelical/xenophobes), Trump (xenophobic assholes). Are there enough of each to keep it a three way race?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If anything is clear, it is that what they want isn't relevant, because they are not driving. I used to think the Democratic system of 'superdelegates' was oligarchical and suspect. Now I see why such a thing is useful.

The problem is that the elitist Washington insiders who think that they run the party know that they can't afford to alienate the rather large segment of the party which supports Trump. Any chance that they have of winning the White House involves sqeaking past Clinton with slightly over 50% of the vote in a few key states. If they just diss him and rally against him at the convention despite him having a good deal of support, those people will stay home on election day and they lose anyways.

I've read that it appears a good chunk of Trump support aren't typical voters, therefore a loss of Trump support doesn't necessarily equate a loss of Republican candidate support. The Republicans are a lot more worried about a Trump candidacy than dealing with any repercussions of him not being on the ticket.

That is, of course, countered by the fact that if they don't distance themselves enough from him, it will motivate others to come out and vote against them and they don't want that either. They're between a rock and a hard place and they really have no idea what it is they need to do.

That much is true. Unlike '12, there was always a top dog candidate. That doesn't exist this year, as Jeb has floundered about. Derail Trump so that Cruz can become the nominee? GOP doesn't like that either.

 

[ksen]

No they wouldn't. They'd be first in line to crucify Christ again.

I agree, and it is very ironic that the people who shout the loudest about Jesus are the people that don't seem to have read a word he allegedly said.

Oh many of the fundagelicals read the words, they just have on their specially colored glasses when they read. The fundagelicals seem fairly close to what the purported Jesus appeared to despise within those Gospels...aka the Pharisee's; but they are blind to it.

I would like to introduce this FReeper thread into evidence:

How do you square your Christian faith with hatred of Muslims?

To: hoagy62

If there were mooslimbs during His time, he probably would have made exceptions.

5 posted on ‎12‎/‎10‎/‎2015‎ ‎1‎:‎28‎:‎01‎ ‎AM by going hot (Happiness is a Momma Deuce)
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The prosecution rests.