Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

[untermensche]

Unfortunately the second you do things because "that's what Jesus would have wanted" is the second you drift into insanity.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The problem is that the elitist Washington insiders who think that they run the party know that they can't afford to alienate the rather large segment of the party which supports Trump. Any chance that they have of winning the White House involves sqeaking past Clinton with slightly over 50% of the vote in a few key states. If they just diss him and rally against him at the convention despite him having a good deal of support, those people will stay home on election day and they lose anyways.

I've read that it appears a good chunk of Trump support aren't typical voters, therefore a loss of Trump support doesn't necessarily equate a loss of Republican candidate support. The Republicans are a lot more worried about a Trump candidacy than dealing with any repercussions of him not being on the ticket.

But the GOP knows that these people are potential voters and they want them coming out to the ballot box. Right now, the early polling (granted, we're almost a year off with all that entails, but it does give a basic picture) has Clinton dominating both Cruz and Rubio in the electoral vote count. The GOP needs everything to break their way in order to get into the White House. If they trade off one thing for another thing, they lose. Full stop. It doesn't lower their chances of victory, it eliminates their chances of victory.

They need to both court the Trump voters and not turn anyone off by their courting of the Trump voters. They don't know how to thread that needle because it's kind of a needle which can't be threaded but they are not, at this point, willing to concede the White House in order to try and shore up the Senate and Congress and Governors and the like. That means that they need that 20-30% of the base to remain motivated enough in their support to bother with them, but keep them motivated in a way that ... nobody outside of that group notices? I have no clue what a potential plan would be, but they seem to be trying to find one. If they don't find one, it's done.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I've read that it appears a good chunk of Trump support aren't typical voters, therefore a loss of Trump support doesn't necessarily equate a loss of Republican candidate support. The Republicans are a lot more worried about a Trump candidacy than dealing with any repercussions of him not being on the ticket.

But the GOP knows that these people are potential voters and they want them coming out to the ballot box. Right now, the early polling (granted, we're almost a year off with all that entails, but it does give a basic picture) has Clinton dominating both Cruz and Rubio in the electoral vote count. The GOP needs everything to break their way in order to get into the White House. If they trade off one thing for another thing, they lose. Full stop. It doesn't lower their chances of victory, it eliminates their chances of victory.

The race for the White House is almost assuredly lost at this point. They are trying to save the House and Senate at this point.

They need to both court the Trump voters and not turn anyone off by their courting of the Trump voters. They don't know how to thread that needle because it's kind of a needle which can't be threaded but they are not, at this point, willing to concede the White House in order to try and shore up the Senate and Congress and Governors and the like. That means that they need that 20-30% of the base to remain motivated enough in their support to bother with them, but keep them motivated in a way that ... nobody outside of that group notices? I have no clue what a potential plan would be, but they seem to be trying to find one. If they don't find one, it's done.

The code speech is all that works and even code speech is "selling out" according to the Trump base.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

But the GOP knows that these people are potential voters and they want them coming out to the ballot box. Right now, the early polling (granted, we're almost a year off with all that entails, but it does give a basic picture) has Clinton dominating both Cruz and Rubio in the electoral vote count. The GOP needs everything to break their way in order to get into the White House. If they trade off one thing for another thing, they lose. Full stop. It doesn't lower their chances of victory, it eliminates their chances of victory.

The race for the White House is almost assuredly lost at this point. They are trying to save the House and Senate at this point.

No, they should be doing this. I have seen no indication that they are actually doing this. All their focus seems to be on finding a candidate who can take them into the general election and carry their banner, not on not giving a shit who that candidate might be and promoting the undercards.

 

[faded_Glory]

I think Jesus vs. Trump could be comedy gold material in the right hands. Showing my age here, but imagine what Monty Python could do with this, Michael Palin as Jesus and John Cleese as Trump

fG

 

[SLD]

Why does anyone think Cruz is going to win in South Carolina? Shheeeesh! Latest poll has Trump up 20 points there. South Carolinian Republicans are extremely racist. I don't think they'd ever vote for anyone named Cruz. And given it's a winner take all, it may be the catalyst which makes Trump's victory inevitable. If Trump loses in Iowa, but wins in both New Hampshire (where he also has a large lead) and then South Carolina, the momentum may be too great to resist him. And he could easily win Iowa as well. CNN has him 13 points ahead there now. If he wins all three, I don't see how he is stopped.

This isn't 2012, where we saw a succession of Republican front runners coming and going in the several months leading up to the primaries. All the pundits say Trump's lead can't last. But it has. No matter what he says. And he's actually getting stronger. History simply does not repeat itself. It's just a myth. I'll stick my neck out and say he's going to be the nominee and the establishment is going to have to eat it. The only way he loses is if the other candidates bow out in favor of Cruz or someone (and Cruz isn't any better). I think he'll lose the general election, but sometimes I fear a black swan that could actually put him in the white house (Hillary having a serious health episode, or something really insane happen).

I hope I'm wrong.

SLD

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Cruz is starting to absorb the evangelical Carson supporters into his gelatinous matrix. So his polling will likely go up in a state like South Carolina.

- - - Updated - - -

I think Jesus vs. Trump could be comedy gold material in the right hands. Showing my age here, but imagine what Monty Python could do with this, Michael Palin as Jesus and John Cleese as Trump

fG

Jesus, don't you tell me about the crucifixion. I was at the crucifixion! I ran it. It wasn't a big deal. Most overstated event in history, ever!

*applause*

 

[ksen]

Cruz is starting to absorb the evangelical Carson supporters into his gelatinous matrix. So his polling will likely go up in a state like South Carolina.

- - - Updated - - -

I think Jesus vs. Trump could be comedy gold material in the right hands. Showing my age here, but imagine what Monty Python could do with this, Michael Palin as Jesus and John Cleese as Trump

fG

Jesus, don't you tell me about the crucifixion. I was at the crucifixion! I ran it. It wasn't a big deal. Most overstated event in history, ever!

*applause*

"I mean how bad could it have really been? You were up and traveling the countryside only three days later."

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think Jesus vs. Trump could be comedy gold material in the right hands. Showing my age here, but imagine what Monty Python could do with this, Michael Palin as Jesus and John Cleese as Trump

fG

We'll likely see a ticket along those lines that has both Trumb and some GOP not-so-Trumb to balance things out. Something like that could actually take the White House. Don't know if the GOP is that savvy. Maybe they're just not desperate enough yet. Who gets P and VP is not yet decided.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I think Jesus vs. Trump could be comedy gold material in the right hands. Showing my age here, but imagine what Monty Python could do with this, Michael Palin as Jesus and John Cleese as Trump

fG

We'll likely see a ticket along those lines that has both Trumb and some GOP not-so-Trumb to balance things out. Something like that could actually take the White House. Don't know if the GOP is that savvy. Maybe they're just not desperate enough yet. Who gets P and VP is not yet decided.

No, something like that could not win the White House. The main reason is that Trump isn't going to be second banana to anyone, so he's either the Presidential candidate or not involved - the man isn't taking a VP spot. Even if I'm wrong about that and he does, he'd spend all his time undercutting whatever message the Presidential candidate is talking about due to Trump's utter lack of giving the first shit about what the Presidential candidate would be talking about and would derail the entire campaign and every Presidential candidate is well aware of this. Given that a President Trump isn't electable, there isn't a situation where a ticket with him on it would get into the White House.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

We'll likely see a ticket along those lines that has both Trumb and some GOP not-so-Trumb to balance things out. Something like that could actually take the White House. Don't know if the GOP is that savvy. Maybe they're just not desperate enough yet. Who gets P and VP is not yet decided.

No, something like that could not win the White House. The main reason is that Trump isn't going to be second banana to anyone, so he's either the Presidential candidate or not involved - the man isn't taking a VP spot. Even if I'm wrong about that and he does, he'd spend all his time undercutting whatever message the Presidential candidate is talking about due to Trump's utter lack of giving the first shit about what the Presidential candidate would be talking about and would derail the entire campaign and every Presidential candidate is well aware of this. Given that a President Trump isn't electable, there isn't a situation where a ticket with him on it would get into the White House.

I'll give you that neither Trump or any other GOP candidate is that bright. But we're selling comic books here and you've just got to write one that just-as-dumb voters will purchase. This isn't rocket science. The only chance the GOP has is to combine all elements of their party if they're going to take the white house.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I'll give you that neither Trump or any other GOP candidate is that bright. But we're selling comic books here and you've just got to write one that just-as-dumb voters will purchase. This isn't rocket science. The only chance the GOP has is to combine all elements of their party if they're going to take the white house.

And that's what I was talking about earlier. There's no plan of action that the GOP could plausibly put together which combines all those elements. Anything it does to cater to the Trump voters alienates a lot of other people and anything it does to cater to those other people alienates the Trump voters. The crazy wing of the GOP is too large and powerful to be ignored, but not large and powerful enough to win on its own. They've had success in the past catering to them with a wink and a nod so that everybody's mildly satisfied, but Trump's overt advocacy of their crazy without any shame means that any "sellout" who's only willing to give them subtle lip service isn't good enough and the rest of the GOP isn't able to plausibly find a way to ignore the stuff which they don't want to hear.

The GOP's only road to the White House involves squeaking in by working the margins perfectly. The Trump candidacy has made those margins which they need to work completely unworkable.

 

[funinspace]

Why does anyone think Cruz is going to win in South Carolina? Shheeeesh! Latest poll has Trump up 20 points there. South Carolinian Republicans are extremely racist. I don't think they'd ever vote for anyone named Cruz. And given it's a winner take all, it may be the catalyst which makes Trump's victory inevitable.

Well, if you are in love with the 'latest poll', another latest poll has Trump only up by 8 points in South Carolina.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/

If Trump loses in Iowa, but wins in both New Hampshire (where he also has a large lead) and then South Carolina, the momentum may be too great to resist him. And he could easily win Iowa as well. CNN has him 13 points ahead there now. If he wins all three, I don't see how he is stopped.

Nice little fantasy stringed up there...

This isn't 2012, where we saw a succession of Republican front runners coming and going in the several months leading up to the primaries. All the pundits say Trump's lead can't last. But it has. No matter what he says. And he's actually getting stronger. History simply does not repeat itself. It's just a myth. I'll stick my neck out and say he's going to be the nominee and the establishment is going to have to eat it. The only way he loses is if the other candidates bow out in favor of Cruz or someone (and Cruz isn't any better).

Sure, this isn't a complete rerun of 2012. However, we can learn from history that people are not that honest (or just say shit to them) with pollsters. History does show that polls at this stage really haven't been shown to be very predictive when there isn't an obvious front runner of significance (and even then it sometimes doesn't work). We do see from a long historical record for both parties that outsiders (aka those with no significant political or military background) don't win major party primaries. All this suggests that Trump is still little more than bread and circus. It doesn't rule out him causing the Repugs a problem or such, but little strongly suggests that he will threaten the powers that be in the end...

 

[braces_for_impact]

No, something like that could not win the White House. The main reason is that Trump isn't going to be second banana to anyone, so he's either the Presidential candidate or not involved - the man isn't taking a VP spot. Even if I'm wrong about that and he does, he'd spend all his time undercutting whatever message the Presidential candidate is talking about due to Trump's utter lack of giving the first shit about what the Presidential candidate would be talking about and would derail the entire campaign and every Presidential candidate is well aware of this. Given that a President Trump isn't electable, there isn't a situation where a ticket with him on it would get into the White House.

I'll give you that neither Trump or any other GOP candidate is that bright. But we're selling comic books here and you've just got to write one that just-as-dumb voters will purchase. This isn't rocket science. The only chance the GOP has is to combine all elements of their party if they're going to take the white house.

This really bothers me. We can say it isn't rocket science, but we can't say it isn't brain surgery anymore.

If we get a GOP nomination for a dumb ass rocket scientist in a few years I'll just quit idioms completely.

 

[SLD]

Well, if you are in love with the 'latest poll', another latest poll has Trump only up by 8 points in South Carolina.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/

If Trump loses in Iowa, but wins in both New Hampshire (where he also has a large lead) and then South Carolina, the momentum may be too great to resist him. And he could easily win Iowa as well. CNN has him 13 points ahead there now. If he wins all three, I don't see how he is stopped.

Nice little fantasy stringed up there...

This isn't 2012, where we saw a succession of Republican front runners coming and going in the several months leading up to the primaries. All the pundits say Trump's lead can't last. But it has. No matter what he says. And he's actually getting stronger. History simply does not repeat itself. It's just a myth. I'll stick my neck out and say he's going to be the nominee and the establishment is going to have to eat it. The only way he loses is if the other candidates bow out in favor of Cruz or someone (and Cruz isn't any better).

Sure, this isn't a complete rerun of 2012. However, we can learn from history that people are not that honest (or just say shit to them) with pollsters. History does show that polls at this stage really haven't been shown to be very predictive when there isn't an obvious front runner of significance (and even then it sometimes doesn't work). We do see from a long historical record for both parties that outsiders (aka those with no significant political or military background) don't win major party primaries. All this suggests that Trump is still little more than bread and circus. It doesn't rule out him causing the Repugs a problem or such, but little strongly suggests that he will threaten the powers that be in the end...

I hope you are right. but I've lived in SC before. I don't see Cruz winning there - it's Klan country, I've seen it. I hope I'm wrong. But I trust the fox poll over the other one at 8%. Both were done at the same time.

 

[crispy]

Ya, that's Crazily Excited Woman #42. She's at all the political rallies which are worth being at.

I thought she was photoshopped in from another photo. Is she looking behind Trump?

Like there is something behind the Donald she is afraid of...

Thats what I thought, Im absolutely 100% certain that ive seen that crazy look somewhere else...

 

[arkirk]

This is kind of an interesting and peculiar issue. I feel that Trump is merely publicly airing the inner feelings of ALL THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. We have been living through a period where the actual inner prejudices of the Republican Party members are played out in spades in congress. Attempts to destroy Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and severely imperil the financial security of the poor in this country regardless of race have been front and center on the Republican Party agenda. On the surface, it looks like these people are running against each other, but that is really just a matter of some approaches to the Republican Party agenda being either a little more or less subtle. For instance Bush and Cruz and even Dick Cheney can rail against Trump's obvious racism but in office, they would be quite the same as Trump. The Repuglicans have an inhumane agenda and as I see it, Trump is the only one being open and honest about it. What is more, with all this hoopla about terrorism and targeting ethnic and racial groups, Trump is holding his own with his publicly expressed inhumane agenda. He could become the nominee and if that is the case, we have to hope our country is divided along the same lines as it was when Goldwater ran.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The real interesting question is, where is this all going as far as the general election? Will all this right wing crazy see a big hit on the GOP Senate and House control? Will Trumpsim eventually collapse or become a small indigestable rump ideology in the GOP that affects its politics for years to come? If Trump wins the GOP primary and loses to Clinton, then what? Can Trump survive Super-Tuesday? This may be the weirdest election cycle since the Know-Nothing era. Latest polls show Trump gaining. What would a defeated Trump do? Fade away or start some sort of new party or set up think tanks and start looking for candidaes to run for office?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This isn't 2012, where we saw a succession of Republican front runners coming and going in the several months leading up to the primaries. All the pundits say Trump's lead can't last. But it has. No matter what he says. And he's actually getting stronger. History simply does not repeat itself. It's just a myth. I'll stick my neck out and say he's going to be the nominee and the establishment is going to have to eat it. The only way he loses is if the other candidates bow out in favor of Cruz or someone (and Cruz isn't any better).

Sure, this isn't a complete rerun of 2012. However, we can learn from history that people are not that honest (or just say shit to them) with pollsters. History does show that polls at this stage really haven't been shown to be very predictive when there isn't an obvious front runner of significance (and even then it sometimes doesn't work). We do see from a long historical record for both parties that outsiders (aka those with no significant political or military background) don't win major party primaries. All this suggests that Trump is still little more than bread and circus. It doesn't rule out him causing the Repugs a problem or such, but little strongly suggests that he will threaten the powers that be in the end...

I think you have a point up to the point that one reason why Trump is winning is because there is no Romney or McCain in the race. There was Jeb, but he appears to be down for the count. Usually there is one guy that can weather a Trump like candidate. I don't think we've seen something like this since Wallace.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Arkirk, ya said a mouthful!! Cruz is a deodorized Trump but just as toxic.