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Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

Why stay on?
The answer is semi-psychological. While it is difficult for people who toil at miserable jobs to appreciate, individuals who sincerely enjoy their work do not want to quit for a simple reason: their specific employment is pleasurable to them.

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There is more to this than psychology, however. Just as Washington famously warned that a demagogue might refuse to relinquish power after losing an election (which did not happen until Trump lost to Biden in 2020), so too did the founding fathers in general worry about politicians choosing to act like royalty.
Then discussing ageism.
If you ask older individuals if they would like to go back in time to their early years, most say they wouldn't mind occupying their younger bodies, but the thought of being insecure, with little life experience, emotional insecurities, an unsettled love life, no job, little or no money, etc. etc., is very unappealing. Older individuals should be thought of as one of society's most precious resources that should be nurtured and valued, not discarded. Younger people should aspire to get there healthy rather than fearing extended survival.
Sure, sure but I think that Biden is less self centered than that. I think that Biden is as aware as you or I or anyone else that it is too late in the game to switch candidates without a very clear and very serious reason to do so. If the party elite was so unhappy with Biden in the months leading up to primaries, that was the time to mount challenges to a second term.

As it is, suppose those who call for Biden to step down are right: he's not up to the job anymore. Or suppose that will be true in 6 months or a year or 3 years. What happens then? What happens is that Kamala Harris assumes the POTUS role. Given that Harris is the most obvious heir apparent anyway, and the person most likely to win the nomination if it is not Biden, then why not stick with Biden? If he can't do it, she can.

For myself, I do not like Harris' chances at a win as POTUS in 2024. I think that's ridiculous but that's what I do think. She will lose the most progressive voters and she will also lose all the closet bigots and sexists. Sometimes people are very stupid and cannot see that an imperfect candidate is better than a second Trump term. Electing a pile of dog shit is preferable. Not that I think that Harris is comparable to a pile of dog shit. I think she's quite a good candidate and would be a competent POTUS. Perhaps even a very good one. But unfortunately not everyone is smart enough to look at the very stark choices we have:

(democratic candidate) V Trump. It does not actually matter who it is who defeats Trump, so long as someone does. I think Biden has the best chance.
I tend to agree with you. Biden has been treated very unfairly based on the bad debate episode. The Dems should have applauded his accomplishments and spent more time criticizing his opponent, a convicted felon, who wants to be a dictator, who loves dictators, who has both signs of cognitive decline along with other mental illnesses.

I watched "The Beat with Ari Melbor" recently and he gave most of the show to Michael Steele, once a Republican chairman who is now one of the biggest critics of Trump. He said the Dems need to stop all the "pearl clutching" and emphasize Biden's abilities instead of going nuts over a night where he gaffed more than usual. The man has never been a great public speaker and he's had a stuttering problem since childhood, but he's over come so many things that most people could never do. Of course, he's not perfect, but Dems and decent people need to unite and support him, assuming he doesn't decide to back out. I'm watching his speech in Detroit right now, and he's doing a great job, to much applause. I've said it before....Dems eat their own and the media needs to stop with saying Biden can't win, and simply try to be more objective and write more often about Trump's psychopathic tendencies.

I'm old enough to remember when LBJ backed out, due to. the Viet Nam War, which of course, most of my generation hated, but that didn't work out very well, did it? LBJ did a lot of good things for the country too, like for example, Medicare. We need to spend more time emphasizing Project 2025, but it is hard to beat an organized bunch of liars and motivate young, naive people who are incapable of looking at the big picture and not voting or voting third party. I know because in retrospect, I was one of those naive young people who thought it was a good idea for LBJ to step down, without realizing the good things he had accomplished. And then there was McGovern, who lost in a landslide. I voted for him and he was simply too progressive for this country. That gave us Nixon again, who's crimes seem mild compared to Trump's.

I'll vote for a cadaver over Trump, and while not everyone is fond of Harris, she will do just fine if for some reason, Biden can't finish the job. We also need to remind ourselves that the presidency isn't a one person job, and Biden will have good advisors and cabinet members compared to the man who brags about wanting to be a dictator, confused the names of Pelosi with Halley, referred to the fictional character of Hannibal Lector as a good guy and said he enjoyed sending love letters to Kim in NK, etc.
 
Guess who supports President Biden.
AOC endorses Biden for re-election: 'The matter is closed' | Fox News
The New York congresswoman and "Squad" member told reporters outside the Capitol that the president has "made clear" he will not step down despite concerns regarding his old age.

"I have spoken to the president over the weekend. I have spoken with him extensively. He made clear then, and he has made clear since, that he is in this race," Ocasio-Cortez told the press.

She continued, "The matter is closed. He had reiterated that this morning. He has reiterated that to the public. Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race and I support him."

...
"Now what I think is critically important is that we focus on what it takes to win in November. Because he is running against Donald Trump, who is a man with 34 felony convictions – that has committed 34 felony crimes. And not a single Republican has asked for Donald Trump to not be the nominee."

Reporters asked the congresswoman what she has to say to those fellow lawmakers that feel they "need to see more from the president."

"That is all up to their own individual determination, but I'm here to make sure we win in November and that is my focus," Ocasio-Cortez responded before leaving the press gaggle.
She has the right idea. She elsewhere talked about voting as a strategic sort of activity, and said that it's not good to be like the Trumpies, who make supporting their candidate their whole identity.

She has a good sense of strategy, wanting fellow Democrats elected so she can get what she wants.
As a result, some left-wingers called her a sellout.

That also happened to her about her endorsement of Joe Biden. AOC Shouldn’t Have Endorsed Joe Biden - 07.12.2023 - Jacobin magazine

From her endorsing Biden a year ago: Ocasio-Cortez endorses Biden's reelection campaign, sending a strong signal of Democratic unity | AP News - 9:21 AM PDT, July 7, 2023
 
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We've spent enough time on this issue, and I don't think you've refuted my comments at all other than to just keep repeating your earlier position. So I'm moving on. I'm not spending any more time on the specific doctor, who has publicly admitted to examining Biden. My view is that the press secretary just made things worse by the way she handled the press, and that issue has now been superseded by tonight's press conference performance.
Apparently you do not comprehend how strict the medical privacy laws are.

I have had occasion to deal with the billing side of patient records--the laws weren't as strict back then but I still perfectly well know I can't talk about any names I might have seen.

I am as aware of HIPAA as you. As I explained to Zipr, the actual identity of the doctor was known, and the reason for the argument with reporters was that everyone knew she was stonewalling their questions with a pretense. They simply wanted to know whether Biden had been examined by a Parkinson's disease specialist, and more generally whether he was being treated for a neurological condition. It turns out that the doctor did examine him and claims to have found no evidence Parkinson's. Biden has made a point of being open and transparent about his health, so it was not out of line to ask these questions. I stand by my previous comments on this subject, which is not terribly newsworthy anymore.
If you are really aware of HIPPA then you would stop making your dumbass argument. Just because someone figures out some information from the outside it still doesn't give those on the inside the right confirm that information.

 
Bernie Sanders endorses Biden, rules out 2024 bid of his own | AP News - 2:45 PM PDT, April 25, 2023
“The last thing this country needs is a Donald Trump or some other right-wing demagogue who is going to try to undermine American democracy or take away a woman’s right to choose, or not address the crisis of gun violence, or racism, sexism or homophobia,” Sanders said in an interview. “So, I’m in to do what I can to make sure that the president is reelected.”

Ilhan Omar and AOC break on backing Biden for president in 2024 - June 15, 2022, 9:22 p.m. ET

Ilhan Omar supports Joe Biden over ‘uncommitted’ despite Israel-Hamas criticism - March 15, 2024 — 9:10pm

Biden gets support from key lawmakers as he tells Democrats he won't step aside after debate - ABC News - July 7, 2024, 9:06 PM

Rep. Ayanna Pressley D-MA: “We’re losing the plot here." (trying to defeat Donald Trump). Rep. Maxine Waters D-CA: those opposing Biden “can speak for themselves or what they want to do, but I know what I’m doing because I’m a big Biden supporter.”, Rep. Frank Pallone D-NJ, top D of Energy and Commerce Committee: “I’m tired of all this speculation. I just want to concentrate on the fact that we have to defeat Trump.” Rep. Hakeem Jeffries D-NY, House D leader: “same answer" to whether he supports JB. He does.

Some other D's tried to avoid questions: Reps. Debbie Dingell, D-MI, Abigail Spanberger D-VA, Lauren Underwood D-IL.

Rep. Adam Smith D-WA: "I’m calling on President Biden to step down.”

...
 
The Squad Is Divided on Support for Biden - July 10 2024, 3:33 p.m. - The Intercept - "Several Squad members who were vocal critics of Biden’s handling of Israel’s war on Gaza have voiced support for the president."

Noting support from AOC, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Cori Bush, Bernie Sanders, and Pramila Jayapal.

However, Nancy Pelosi stops short of saying Biden should stay in the race, says 'time is running short' for him to decide
But not all progressives are lining up behind Biden. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., one of the most vocal members criticizing U.S. military support for the war on Gaza, has said she will not endorse the president for reelection. And last week, Rep. Summer Lee, D-Penn., said that if Biden decided to step down, she would support Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee.

Progressives in Washington insisted that members of the Squad and their staffs were not frustrated with each other over how each member approached questions about Biden. They explained the division as merely a difference in messaging between political allies.

Two sources who work closely with Squad offices said progressive efforts to boost Biden had less to do with him as the presidential candidate and more to do with protecting their own political futures.
According to one strategist, “There is a divide between the most progressive members who feel like they need to show fealty for self-preservation or for future ambition and those who are willing to just hang back and not offer support because they don’t need anything.”
 
I have to reiterate this, polls are unreliable. Even if Biden had Parkinson's (extremely unlikely), it is a condition that does not affect mentality, unlike Trump's dementia.
One of the greatest risks to Biden not winning the election is all these calls for him to step down, and disunity in Democratic Party, which is disloyalty that serves the Republican Party.
Another thing that would help the USA is if the media stopped making dubious claims about Biden and concentrated on revealing much more details of verified facts about Trump's mental and moral deterioration - his lies, his blackouts, his mental incompetence, and so on.
Exactly. So what if he has Parkinson's?

That's an excellent rhetorical question. I don't care whether he has Parkinson's or not. I'll vote for Biden simply because Donald Trump is far less qualified to be President and never should have been elected in 2016. The worst president in US history, he has been a disaster and now stands as a genuine threat to our very system of representative democracy. The problem is that over half the country doesn't agree with me or my political party. According to polling data, they would vote for Donald Trump today rather than see Joe Biden reelected. This far out, that data may be completely misleading, but consider this. Joe Biden pointed out that there have been at least three presidents before him that had lower poll numbers at this point in their terms. Those three were Jimmy Carter, HW Bush, and Donald Trump. Biden did not say who they were, but that's who they were. What Biden did not mention was that all three lost their reelection campaigns.

This controversy is not about Joe Biden's ability to run the country, his record, or his competence. It is about whether he can win the presidential election in November and help downballot Democrats to win theirs. Right now, the polling data says that he cannot. Only about a third of the country gives him a positive approval rating, and polls show that more than half of his own party want him to step aside. To ignore all of this is pure insanity. It is something out of Hans Christian Andersen's folktale The Emperor's New Clothes. Joe Biden is in denial, and so are a great many of his supporters who cannot face the reality of how much of a liability Joe Biden has become for his party and for the future of his country.
Your Emperor's new clothes analogy fails, as the emperor had 100% support from his citizens.
The analogy better applies to Trump - despite totally nakedly lying, his supporters still 100% support him.

I didn't apply the analogy to Trump supporters, but it can be applied to them, too. If you reread what I wrote, you'll find that I was applying it to those who believe that Biden can win the presidential election and help downballot Democrats. The little boy crying that the emperor is wearing no clothes would be those trying to tell fellow Biden supporters that he can run an effective reelection campaign.
I am well aware of what you were saying, and I pointed out the Emperor had 100% support while President Biden doesn't have that from Democrats. You are wrong about the identity of the little boy - as there is none, no one warning about Trump to all his supporters AND that they would believe, and lift the veil from their eyes.
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CDN media
Immediately after he said Putin, he was aware he said the wrong name, and said so, and even gave a reason - that the name Putin was on his mind. Contrast that with Trump who in similar situations (that is multiple times) isn't aware he has said the wrong name, and even repeats his mistake, for example with Nikki Haley when he meant Pelosi (and he attributed to her an authority she didn't have, he was the one who had to call for assistance and he refused, not wanting his "soldiers" to be stopped).
 
I think the more progressive members of the party are supporting Biden at least in part because he had supported some of their progressive goals and AOC seems to be maturing more, and understanding “ that while you can’t always get what you want, if you try real hard, you’ll get what you need.” ( old Rolling Stones fan couldn’t help myself, but there is some truth in those lyrics. ). She’s even been working across the aisle at times. Good for her!
 
I am well aware of what you were saying, and I pointed out the Emperor had 100% support while President Biden doesn't have that from Democrats. You are wrong about the identity of the little boy - as there is none, no one warning about Trump to all his supporters AND that they would believe, and lift the veil from their eyes

Why are we disputing an analogy? If you don't care for my analogy, ignore it. It only expressed the way I feel about people who are in denial over the extent of damage that Joe Biden has done to his campaign during the debate and afterwards. His judgment in agreeing to that debate says a lot about how good he will be in carrying out a grueling campaign until November against Donald Trump and then, if he actually manages to get reelected, serving another four years in one of the most difficult jobs on the planet. Biden had a great run in his first term, which he had sold to many voters as a "bridge to a new generation". Having crossed that bridge, he has managed to set up a barricade to the new generation on the other side.

Immediately after he said Putin, he was aware he said the wrong name, and said so, and even gave a reason - that the name Putin was on his mind. Contrast that with Trump who in similar situations (that is multiple times) isn't aware he has said the wrong name, and even repeats his mistake, for example with Nikki Haley when he meant Pelosi (and he attributed to her an authority she didn't have, he was the one who had to call for assistance and he refused, not wanting his "soldiers" to be stopped).

This is silly. Both men do this a lot, although it seems to me that Trump has been doing it a lot more than Biden in the past. In the recent press conference, Biden called Kamala Harris "Vice President Trump" without realizing it. Later on, a reporter pointed it out to him, but he did not show any sign of having realized he had done it at the time.
 
What they want is a revolution.
I am told that these things happen in the course of human events. Sometimes violently, sometimes in a conference room. I prefer the latter. But nations must evolve and change. Complete national atrophy is neither possible nor desirable. Trump, who understands little, at least understands this. I do not understand why ths Democratic leadership does not. When Trump is setting up his new government, he will answer no calls from Nancy Pelosi no matter how many concessions and compromises she offers.
 
Who is backing Biden? We're keeping track : NPR

Whew. I did it. I found the ideology scores from govtrack.us and I found the ideology scores for each position on what to do about Joe Biden's candidacy.

Step down? Continue? Be concerned?

I also compared to Democrats + Independents and to Republicans in general.

I used the Mann-Whitney statistical test for comparing the distributions of scores.

I found the following hierarchy of resemblance
Step Down + Concern -- p = 0.89
Democrats and Independents in general -- p = 0.41, 0.54
Continue -- p = 0.21, 0.20, 0.22
Republicans in general -- p = teeny tiny: 2*10^(-11), 2*10^(-12), 3*10^(-88), 9*10^(-18)

So the distributions of these positions are not very far off from each other, or from Democrats in general.

It's a testament to the extreme polarization of our time that the Democrats and Republicans barely overlap.
 
Back to The 13 Keys to the White House | American University, Washington, D.C. - Allan Lichtman's theory that Presidential elections are referenda on the incumbent's party. Let's look at this election so far.

1. Party Mandate ❌
2. Contest ✅
3. Incumbency ✅
4. Third party ✅
5. Short-term economy ✅
6. Long-term economy ✅
7. Policy change ✅
8. Social unrest ✅
9. Scandal ✅
10. Foreign/military failure ❌
11. Foreign/military success ❌
12. Incumbent charisma ❌
13. Challenger charisma ✅

If there are 5 or fewer false keys, the incumbent party's candidate will win. If there are 6 or more false keys, the challenging party's candidate will win.

This current kerfluffle in the Democratic Party threatens to falsify key 2, and if President Biden steps down, that will falsify key 3. Thus giving him a strong risk of defeat. So the Dems ought to settle their differences and accept the necessity of supporting him a few months more.
 
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Parents often cycle through the names of their children until they land on the right one. Even in her twenties and thirties, my mother would often do this between myself, brother, and sister. Particularly if one of us did something wrong, she would often blurt out my name first.
They call that "playing the percentages"

;)
 
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