Will Trump Drop Out?

[MarkW]

Man, Trump is the proverbial bull in the GOP's china shop. He's going to wreck the party and god knows what will happen with the rest of the party's elections this year.

Trump reminds me of Winston Churchill's quip about John Foster Dulles: "He is the only bull I know who carries his own china shop around with him."

 

[credoconsolans]

He will revert to what has worked in a last minute over the top blitz of outrageous balderdash. It may well be the weirdest end of election cycle yet. Despair and panic. He won't go quietly.

This^ is definitely a possibility. The saying, "You go with what you know" is simple but true. When I was in the army I learned what to do when you're caught in a close ambush on foot---you just charge at it with as much firepower as you can muster. But then I retrained as a cav scout--an armored unit--and on my first training exercise as the squad leader, we got caught in an ambush, but it was from another armored unit a good 400 meters away. So what did I do? I immediately ordered the entire squad of APCs and one Bradley to turn hard right and charge the position that had caught us out in the open.

We were all "killed" within minutes. The de-brief questioning was predictable: "what's with the suicide charge?"

So it seems likely that indeed, Trump will flame out with his own ignorant, misguided suicide charge.

Interesting. Didn't one Civil War officer win a hill "Little Roundtop" in Gettysburg with just such a charge? He was desperate and counting on the other side to panic and they did. In your case, in the cav unit example, your 'enemy' did not.

 

[jonatha]

This^ is definitely a possibility. The saying, "You go with what you know" is simple but true. When I was in the army I learned what to do when you're caught in a close ambush on foot---you just charge at it with as much firepower as you can muster. But then I retrained as a cav scout--an armored unit--and on my first training exercise as the squad leader, we got caught in an ambush, but it was from another armored unit a good 400 meters away. So what did I do? I immediately ordered the entire squad of APCs and one Bradley to turn hard right and charge the position that had caught us out in the open.

We were all "killed" within minutes. The de-brief questioning was predictable: "what's with the suicide charge?"

So it seems likely that indeed, Trump will flame out with his own ignorant, misguided suicide charge.

Interesting. Didn't one Civil War officer win a hill "Little Roundtop" in Gettysburg with just such a charge? He was desperate and counting on the other side to panic and they did. In your case, in the cav unit example, your 'enemy' did not.

In that case the other side was about fought out and low on ammunition

 

[Tom Sawyer]

He will revert to what has worked in a last minute over the top blitz of outrageous balderdash. It may well be the weirdest end of election cycle yet. Despair and panic. He won't go quietly.

This^ is definitely a possibility. The saying, "You go with what you know" is simple but true. When I was in the army I learned what to do when you're caught in a close ambush on foot---you just charge at it with as much firepower as you can muster. But then I retrained as a cav scout--an armored unit--and on my first training exercise as the squad leader, we got caught in an ambush, but it was from another armored unit a good 400 meters away. So what did I do? I immediately ordered the entire squad of APCs and one Bradley to turn hard right and charge the position that had caught us out in the open.

We were all "killed" within minutes. The de-brief questioning was predictable: "what's with the suicide charge?"

So it seems likely that indeed, Trump will flame out with his own ignorant, misguided suicide charge.

But if you hadn't done that suicide charge, would any other strategy you picked have worked any better? IIRC, there was one battle in the Civil War which the North won because some guys just said "fuck it" and ran at the slaver army, which caught them off guard and a bunch of them were dead before they could figure out what it was that the Northerners were doing. It's a strategy with a low probability of success and will most likely result in your dying needlessly, but that doesn't mean that it's not also the thing which gives you the best chance given the situation that you're in.

Similarly, I don't think that Trump can pivot. For one thing, he doesn't have the temperament or ability to stay on message. For another thing, so-called experts have been saying the same thing for the past year and he's ground them and all their candidates into the dust. He doesn't see his strategy as a losing one and it's more likely that he'll double down on it expecting the same result that he's gotten in the past, not realizing that the situation he's in is a completely different one and hoping he just wears down Clinton with a constant barrage ... provided that he can remember to attack Clinton every once in a while as opposed to attacking everyone else and leaving her alone.

 

[Elixir]

... provided that he can remember to attack Clinton every once in a while as opposed to attacking everyone else and leaving her alone.

A long-shot provision, IMO.
He already can't get past "Corrupt Hillary is... Oh look! A squirrel!"

 

[Toni]

One of my more extreme leftist FB friends has been telling people for over a year that the Trump candidacy was a put-up by the Donald and Bill Clinton, designed to ensure another Democratic presidency... now I am wondering if that might indeed be the case.

I've considered that this might be the case from the very beginning. Only I didn't think that it was either Bill or Donald's idea.

Probably, it was begun as a lark, an attention getting gambit by The Donald which surprised him by being successful. But honestly, look at the candidates put forth by the GOP. It is genuinely sad. I'm not thrilled with the Dem's field, either, but it pales in comparison in terms of awfulness.


Is there a way for the GOP to actually dump Trump?

If they did, who would be their nominee?

 

[funinspace]

Is there a way for the GOP to actually dump Trump?

If they did, who would be their nominee?

Even if there was a way, the war most likely wouldn't be worth it. It would be far easier/saner for Repug leaders to simply en mass to repudiate Trump, and say I'm voting for what's his name...the LP candidate, as he is more of a Repug (and actually is rational) than Trump.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Is there a way for the GOP to actually dump Trump?

If they did, who would be their nominee?

Even if there was a way, the war most likely wouldn't be worth it. It would be far easier/saner for Repug leaders to simply en mass to repudiate Trump, and say I'm voting for what's his name...the LP candidate, as he is more of a Repug (and actually is rational) than Trump.

That's another big dilemma of theirs. They need someone at the top of the ticket because most people don't come out to vote for Senators and Congressmen. Endorsing another party's candidate would give them that, but perhaps at the expense of losing a lot more people who stay home because they don't want to support a party who turns their backs on the choice of the voters.

However bad Trump may be, he is the one who got voted in. There's a strong argument to be made that abandoning him may provoke a worse backlash against them than supporting him will do.

Regardless of what they do, however, the schadenfreude of the next few months are going to be glorious.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Man, Trump is the proverbial bull in the GOP's china shop. He's going to wreck the party and god knows what will happen with the rest of the party's elections this year.

I think you are giving Trump too much credit for wrecking the GOP. The GOP wrecked itself with its platform of hate and paranoia over the last 15-20 years. Trump's nomination is but a symptom of the much deeper disease.

No doubt they've been setting their pyramid on its tip, but Trump is the one who has come raging in like the Tasmanian Devil and kicked all the shit around.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

But if you hadn't done that suicide charge, would any other strategy you picked have worked any better? IIRC, there was one battle in the Civil War which the North won because some guys just said "fuck it" and ran at the slaver army, which caught them off guard and a bunch of them were dead before they could figure out what it was that the Northerners were doing. It's a strategy with a low probability of success and will most likely result in your dying needlessly, but that doesn't mean that it's not also the thing which gives you the best chance given the situation that you're in.

There's a way to conduct an organized withdrawal---cover fire while hauling ass as fast as you can to the nearest cover and/or out of range. My training previous had always assumed a close quarters scenario where you if you couldn't dig in and couldn't retreat, you charge and hope for the best. Never having been in the mobile situation before, I did what I knew how to do. It also didn't help that I was the idiot who volunteered when no one else would---that is, utterly unprepared.

And thats what Trump is. He's never been in this situation before. Everything he's done in business has been behind closed doors and all his TV shows are highly scripted and controlled. And being a loudmouthed asshole is what it's got him this far in the election. That is, he is doing what he's trained himself to do and there's either been no time to develop new tactics or he just hasn't bothered.

Similarly, I don't think that Trump can pivot. For one thing, he doesn't have the temperament or ability to stay on message. For another thing, so-called experts have been saying the same thing for the past year and he's ground them and all their candidates into the dust. He doesn't see his strategy as a losing one and it's more likely that he'll double down on it expecting the same result that he's gotten in the past, not realizing that the situation he's in is a completely different one and hoping he just wears down Clinton with a constant barrage ... provided that he can remember to attack Clinton every once in a while as opposed to attacking everyone else and leaving her alone.

Yeah. He's doing what he's trained himself to do and now, because he's unable to switch tactics, he's getting pummeled.

 

[zorq]

A more scary thought is that Trump may be assasinated before the election. I have joked about the Republicans getting rid of Trump this way before but if you think about it the entire Republican brand is in danger from a trump fiasco. And the best chance the establishment may have at salvaging anything from this mess is by rallying around a martyr.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Absolute pipedream.

Trump's ego now thinks he can pull it off and it will keep him from backing out.

Agreed. I don't think he expected to win at the start, and I do suspect that Clinton may have encouraged him to run to take down the republicans, but now he's in it and his ego won't let him quit.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

How horrible is it that I actually kind of want to see Trump win the election. It is a morbid curiosity festering inside me.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Absolute pipedream.

Trump's ego now thinks he can pull it off and it will keep him from backing out.

Agreed. I don't think he expected to win at the start, and I do suspect that Clinton may have encouraged him to run to take down the republicans, but now he's in it and his ego won't let him quit.

It is inane to me that people are including the Clintons in this conspiracy. Trump is where he is because what he is saying is appealing to the right wing of the country. The Democrats have nothing to do with his levels of support. The GOP created the monster through years and years of hard work and effort to do just that and now they're acting all surprised that it's gotten out of its cage and is rampaging around the village.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

How horrible is it that I actually kind of want to see Trump win the election. It is a morbid curiosity festering inside me.

I know, right. It's like seeing a clown car on fire hurtling towards a fireworks factory. You know that it's going to tragic and horrible but ... part of you would be just a little bit disappointed if they just hit the brakes and all got out ok.

 

[Valjean]

What I'm wondering is who the GOP would substitute should Trump drop out, or what a Pence presidency would look like should Congress remove Trump from office.

 

[Keith&Co.]

There's a strong argument to be made that abandoning him may provoke a worse backlash against them than supporting him will do.

And that's funny, because the Republicans depend so heavily on weak or batshit crazy arguments, insisting that reality is what they say it is, not what the facts suggest.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

How horrible is it that I actually kind of want to see Trump win the election. It is a morbid curiosity festering inside me.

I know, right. It's like seeing a clown car on fire hurtling towards a fireworks factory. You know that it's going to tragic and horrible but ... part of you would be just a little bit disappointed if they just hit the brakes and all got out ok.

The only possible positive thing I could possibly see coming out of a Trump Presidency is Trump mouthing off to Trudeau and then Trudeau instagramming a photo of Ivanka, Melania, and Trudeau in bed with a caption "Warming up Border Relations". Because... you know he could pull that off.

 

[Funkytrip]

It isn't his fault. The entire system is rigged. He was going to change it all, but the press was unfairly attacking him left and right and he needed to think of his family.

This.
And on top of that, he can say for the rest of his life: I did tremendous in the elections, beat all other contestants. I am a tremendous candidate. There's not much more to it really.

 

[Angry Floof]

Will Trump Drop Out

Oh holy Odin I hope not.