Yet another war, this time with Iran

[Gospel]

The only way to correct it is to utterly destroy the ability of the Regime to threaten shipping. Which means aggressively going after their missile and drone capabilities. Also, following through on ultimatums, because as long as Trump TACOs, the Regime will not take him seriously.

Destroy launchers, they build more. Kill leaders, new ones step up, Bomb infrastructure, they adapt. Short term success does not mean long term success. The U.S. has had long-term success in places like postwar Germany, Japan, and South Korea, where there were centralized states to rebuild.

In the Middle East, where power is decentralized and conflicts are handled through proxies and fragmentation, destroying capabilities is unlikely to translated into long lasting results. At least not by force alone. You don’t get lasting control without buy-in from the people living there. And again, they're fragmented.

With someone like Trump at the helm, it’s hard to see sustained public buy-in anyway, given his track record of shifting positions.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Iran knew to disburse it's missiles and drones and critically, delegate launch authority. Trump and the brain trust could not have attacked in a more expected fashion. Trump's possible way out will be that 80% of the Iranian population still hate the regime as much as they did before Trump attacked and want it gone. Right now the regime is ruling by the gun. It may not survive this loss of overall command. Then Trump can claim he alone did this.

 

[bilby]

Trump's possible way out will be that 80% of the Iranian population still hate the regime as much as they did before Trump attacked and want it gone.

Will they, though? The ones who hated it most are gone, shot by the IRGC when they foolishly trusted Trump enough to openly rise up against the regime.

The rest now see the regime as having humbled the Great Satan. Even at the cost of martyrdom at the very highest level.

I would hazard that the regime is more popular now amongst ordinary Iranians than it has been for a very long time.

 

[Gospel]

In a bold new chapter of foreign policy innovation, President Donald Trump has reportedly unveiled a groundbreaking strategy: wage war on a Russian ally, arm one of Russia's enemies, lift sanctions on Russia so they can assist with Energy costs. Putin almost always manages to Benefit from Trump's decisions.

What a damn idiot.

 

[ZiprHead]

Iraq claims we bombed a medical facility full of Iraqi soldiers.

 

[scombrid]

Interesting. How do you see Warren, then? Markey? I’m genuinely interested.

They seem like controlling busybodies. That's at least how Fauxachontas came across during her presidential run, and Markey is behind that Green New Deal boondoggle.

Yes, I’ve always found it to be ….interesting that the GOP has been very anti-immigrant, while a large portion of the immigrant population is fairly conservative, particularly with respect to social issues.

I found it interesting that Democrats have been very supportive of mass migration from the third world for the same reason.

We've gotten way off the topic of the Iran War, Excursion, whatever. It looks like Donald is busy TACOing this one again. Worst of all possibilities. Once you start something, you should be willing to see it through. If you don't want to see it through, don't start it in the first place.

Yeah who needs antitrust laws, environmental regs,

Trump did better with Hispanics and black men and Arabs. Trump won because he has done what he has made a career of, convincing people to act against their own self interest for his own. It is the only thing he is good at.

I know I don't feel represented, but it'll never cease to blow my mind that anyone, let alone minorities, would ever vote for Trump. It's fucking disgraceful. At the same time, it's shameful that the Dems have lost unions as well as anyone that has to endure the American healthcare system and all of its exorbitant costs. How do you lose those people???

Decades of lies on the AM Radio dial and Cable News. They were able to convince unions they gave a fuck about the people who's jobs they were quite happy to send overseas, and then distracted them with cultural issues to the point that they started shooting beer cans because of a commercial on tv.

Yeah. A trans girl playing sports somewhere is way worse than have United/Optim vacuuming up health care spending away from patients and providers. Have to keep the eyes on theorize

Trump did better with Hispanics and black men and Arabs. Trump won because he has done what he has made a career of, convincing people to act against their own self interest for his own. It is the only thing he is good at.

I know I don't feel represented, but it'll never cease to blow my mind that anyone, let alone minorities, would ever vote for Trump. It's fucking disgraceful. At the same time, it's shameful that the Dems have lost unions as well as anyone that has to endure the American healthcare system and all of its exorbitant costs. How do you lose those people???

Decades of lies on the AM Radio dial and Cable News. They were able to convince unions they gave a fuck about the people who's jobs they were quite happy to send overseas, and then distracted them with cultural issues to the point that they started shooting beer cans because of a commercial on tv.

Rush Limbaugh, IMO, was the one who got the modern conservative shit wagon rolling. Other radio people saw his success and started copying it. Without Limbaugh, Hannity, Prager, et al would've never been given their platforms and I don't think that Fox News would've never taken hold.

Limbaugh was the originator of liberals being inept bunglers while at the same time being evil geniuses. However, at some point the lack of the growth of intellect is on the individual. I know this because I was raised in a Reaganite family and loved Limbaugh back in the late 80s/early 90s. Eventually I grew out of it, which oddly enough began with the Bill Clinton blowjob "scandal" and the overblown White Water conspiracy.

I also read a ton of books. Yadda, yadda, yadda, a disturbing number of Americans lack even the most basic intellectual curiosity. Blurbs and brightly colored internet sites draw them in by the tens of millions.

Limbaugh was just a mouthpiece for The Heartland Institute. When Heritage saw his success, they Invented Hannity. Empty suits with no moral compass bleeding what the think tanks fed them.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Iraq claims we bombed a medical facility full of Iraqi soldiers.

Fake news. We are at war with Iran, duh!1

 

[barbos]

Martha Stewart must be "What the fuck!?"

Technically she got busted for lying to the FBI about insider trading. Not the trading itself. But it's still funny.

Are you implying that Trump have never lied to the FBI?
I find that hard to believe.

 

[Toni]

Nancy Pelosi, is that you?

Both sides. I agree, Congress shouldn't profit from foreknowledge of legislation. It isn't ethical. Granted, being in such positions of power also provides a general foreknowledge as to where the future is headed. Regardless, it'd be nice if such knowledge wasn't taken advantage of.

Regarding the S&P and Oil, this is a war of sorts. NO ONE, should profit from war.

And yet, the only real reason we have wars is that somebody profits. The rest is just PR.

 

[Toni]

and Markey is behind that Green New Deal boondoggle.

You still bitching about the green new deal after the Iran war fiasco?

Derec seems pretty heavily invested in fossil fuels.

 

[barbos]

The only way to correct it is to utterly destroy the ability of the Regime to threaten shipping.

Why do you hate Estonia?

 

[Toni]

Interesting. How do you see Warren, then? Markey? I’m genuinely interested.

They seem like controlling busybodies. That's at least how Fauxachontas came across during her presidential run, and Markey is behind that Green New Deal boondoggle.

Yes, I’ve always found it to be ….interesting that the GOP has been very anti-immigrant, while a large portion of the immigrant population is fairly conservative, particularly with respect to social issues.

I found it interesting that Democrats have been very supportive of mass migration from the third world for the same reason.

We've gotten way off the topic of the Iran War, Excursion, whatever. It looks like Donald is busy TACOing this one again. Worst of all possibilities. Once you start something, you should be willing to see it through. If you don't want to see it through, don't start it in the first place.

Men certainly seem to have a problem with women. If they speak out strongly, they are strident or schoolmatmish or ball busters. If they speak in more modulated tones, they are wish washy, weak, just fluff. Heaven forbid they be too old or too fat or too thin or too sexy or too maternal or too butch or bitchy or ( insert insult here), while men have zero problem voting for fat, ignorant, privileged blowhards.

If you disagree with a position, then you should be able to state where you think the position is incorrect or misguided. I know you never voted for Trump but you have managed to consolidate in a few words exactly what women are up against.

Because I’m sure you never watched the movie, I will simply leave this speech from
The movie Barbie ( which I did not intend to see myself except a dear friend was visiting and wanted to see it plus I liked many of the names attached to the film):

It is literally impossible to be a woman. You are so beautiful, and so smart, and it kills me that you don't think you're good enough. Like, we have to always be extraordinary, but somehow we're always doing it wrong.

You have to be thin, but not too thin. And you can never say you want to be thin. You have to say you want to be healthy, but also you have to be thin. You have to have money, but you can't ask for money because that's crass. You have to be a boss, but you can't be mean. You have to lead, but you can't squash other people's ideas. You're supposed to love being a mother, but don't talk about your kids all the damn time. You have to be a career woman but also always be looking out for other people. You have to answer for men's bad behavior, which is insane, but if you point that out, you're accused of complaining. You're supposed to stay pretty for men, but not so pretty that you tempt them too much or that you threaten other women because you're supposed to be a part of the sisterhood.

But always stand out and always be grateful. But never forget that the system is rigged. So find a way to acknowledge that but also always be grateful. You have to never get old, never be rude, never show off, never be selfish, never fall down, never fail, never show fear, never get out of line.

It's too hard! It's too contradictory and nobody gives you a medal or says thank you! And it turns out in fact that not only are you doing everything wrong, but also everything is your fault.

I'm just so tired of watching myself and every single other woman tie herself into knots so that people will like us. And if all of that is also true for a doll just representing women, then I don't even know.

Don’t worry, Derec, I can hear your eyes rolling right now as you skip over to the part where you tell me how wrong I am.

 

[Gospel]

Iraq claims we bombed a medical facility full of Iraqi soldiers.

So the choice is: Take the word of a government that actively suppresses its own population today, or believe the one with a long track record of global intervention and past atrocities didn't do it.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

I'm sure the Iraqis liked Huseein dying too. What followed, not so much.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

I'm sure the Iraqis liked Huseein dying too. What followed, not so much.

So that means what? We shouldn't ever attempt to remove dictators because it might end badly? That doesn't sound very progressive of you. I always thought you were a liberal?

The history of the political left and right is that the left are people who think that risking guillotines now and again is a risk worth taking, since the rewards of having liberty will pay off in the long run. While the right, conservatives, are people who think that change will probably end badly, so it's better off to put a break on change as much as possible. The two camps are both a comment on how bad we think the guillotine was. I'm on the left. I think freedom is worth making sacrifices for. I will never defend dictatorships just to keep the peace.

You sound paralysed by fear. At least with Saddam gone is hope for positive change. That would never have happened with Saddam still in power. The situation for the regime in Iran is identical. Yeah, removing the Iranian dictator might end in a bloodbath. Revolutions typically do. Is being alive better than living in perpetual fear? The guy in Iran doesn't seem to think so.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

Theocracy is terrible, but if this one tortured person were truly representative of the vast majority of Iranians, then they'd have a revolution against the Ayatollah decades ago. He is statistically representative of a minority and if the US goes in there boots on the ground to deliver regime change, it's also an ideological change that would take decades of occupation to "win," like post-WWII occupation of Nazi Germany. This is the same mistake made in Afghanistan and Vietnam. You need to have (1) a clear moral high ground to the vast majority of the populace, (2) a commitment of occupation lasting decades, and (3) a large occupation and reeducation over that whole course.

Violent Christian Nationalists will not convince the majority of the populace. So far as (2) and (3), if we look at Venezuela as an example of things to come, there is no interest in this. Emperor Hair Furor wants a vassal state out of Iran and only cares about its leadership inasmuch as the leader obeys him. Theocracy could remain intact. Further, the American people do not want to commit to what is necessary to do a real longstanding regime change in Iran (2 and 3) because of the economic burden and commitment of their sons' and daughters' lives.

 

[Gospel]

1) a clear moral high ground to the vast majority of the populace,

Welp, there goes any chance of success, torpedoed by a president who sounds like an undereducated middle school bully on social media.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

Theocracy is terrible, but if this one tortured person were truly representative of the vast majority of Iranians, then they'd have a revolution against the Ayatollah decades ago.

No. Not true. When the German Nazi regime went most Germans were happy to see it go. When the Iron Curtain fell, most East Europeans, were happy to see it go. These were all terror regimes that only kept in power by terrorising their population.

You have an adorable view of how much people are willing to tolerate torture and collective punishment. Torture is not nice. It's unbearable. That's the point.

He is statistically representative of a minority

That's an absurd statement, considering the what we know. What are you basing your view on other than what you'd like was true?

and if the US goes in there boots on the ground to deliver regime change, it's also an ideological change that would take decades of occupation to "win," like post-WWII occupation of Nazi Germany. This is the same mistake made in Afghanistan and Vietnam. You need to have (1) a clear moral high ground to the vast majority of the populace, (2) a commitment of occupation lasting decades, and (3) a large occupation and reeducation over that whole course.

Violent Christian Nationalists will not convince the majority of the populace. So far as (2) and (3), if we look at Venezuela as an example of things to come, there is no interest in this. Emperor Hair Furor wants a vassal state out of Iran and only cares about its leadership inasmuch as the leader obeys him. Theocracy could remain intact. Further, the American people do not want to commit to what is necessary to do a real longstanding regime change in Iran (2 and 3) because of the economic burden and commitment of their sons' and daughters' lives.

Now you've entered into some projected fantasy conversation. Who has said anything about boots on the ground?

My Iranian friends friend in Iran said that he thinks this war is worth it. Ie, rockets flying and bombs being dropped. He didn't say anything about boots on the ground. My friend didn't. I didn't.

I think you are making associations that don't fit and you are connecting things as inevitable that aren't.

Trumps strategy, seems to be, to push over a tower that is teetering and tottering, at the point where it looks the most unstable. With rockets. Not to commit troops. I also think it's valuable for the Iranian people to know that the world hasn't forgotten them and is on their side. That might embolden uprisings.

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.

I also think that an invasion of Iran will be a lot more difficult than the invasion of Iraq. The Iraqi regime was a spider in a net. Once the spider was gone it all just collapsed. The Iranian regime is distributed. There's no just one head that can be cut. The entire revolutionary guard needs to be wiped out. Similar to how Nazi Germany had to be defeated. Or Hamas in Gaza. Ideologicaly fueled fanatics are hard to dislodge, and are more than willing to take everyone down with them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

I'm sure the Iraqis liked Huseein dying too. What followed, not so much.

So that means what?

It means that when you commit to regime change, you need to follow through with a cognizant and thorough plan that takes into the account the on-the-ground realities. This sort of thinking was WHY doing this in the first place was deemed a bad idea.

We shouldn't ever attempt to remove dictators because it might end badly? That doesn't sound very progressive of you. I always thought you were a liberal?

That is funny, because people like argued otherwise 20 years ago... we can't just go in and make things better. Over 100,000 Iraqis died as a result of W's occupation. That number could be as high as 250,000. Over 1 million Iraqis were permanently displaced. That was a royal fuck up that caused a lot of harm. It doesn't simply go away because he wanted to make Iraq nicer by removing Hussein.

You sound paralysed by fear.

$15 to $20 billion has been spent, the Israelis have killed the former Theocratic ruler. The IRGC is reminding the locals that they die if they talk out, let alone rise up. Even the DNI says Iran is weakened but Iran is intact. Little has actually changed other than the military that Iran wasn't using to hurt Israel is in tatters.

I can read. Much like Iraq, the assessment of an attack and the consequences were generally on the nose. We've gained very little, for a high price, and the one thing the assessments missed was the permanent weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz. You want a weaker Iran and Trump / Bibi have opened the Pandora's box that is taking the Strait of Hormuz hostage... and Iran is threatening doing like with with the Gulf!

Pragmatism isn't being paralyzed, it is recognizing the limits we have. That good wishes aren't enough to evoke change.

At least with Saddam gone is hope for positive change. That would never have happened with Saddam still in power. The situation for the regime in Iran is identical. Yeah, removing the Iranian dictator might end in a bloodbath. Revolutions typically do. Is being alive better than living in perpetual fear? The guy in Iran doesn't seem to think so.

You sound like you are arguing just for the sake of it at this point. Overthrowing the Iranian regime would take absolutely no less than 500,000 to 750,000 troops. We don't have that type of military without a draft.