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Yet another war, this time with Iran


Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
Afghanistan and Iraq military efforts say otherwise.
 
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Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
Afghanistan and Iraq military efforts say otherwise.
If you want a politician to vote for your thing you need to give them another thing, they otherwise wouldn't have gotten. That's how politics work.
 
Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing
I'm sure the Iraqis liked Huseein dying too. What followed, not so much.

So that means what?
It means that when you commit to regime change, you need to follow through with a cognizant and thorough plan that takes into the account the on-the-ground realities. This sort of thinking was WHY doing this in the first place was deemed a bad idea.

Why? You make it sound there's some sort of manual for this sort of thing. Iran, is not an Arab country. There's no reason to think they'll fall apart and start murdering eachother. Iranian culture is a consunsus culture along the lines of Sweden or Japan. They're really well organised and cooperative.

We shouldn't ever attempt to remove dictators because it might end badly? That doesn't sound very progressive of you. I always thought you were a liberal?
That is funny, because people like argued otherwise 20 years ago... we can't just go in and make things better. Over 100,000 Iraqis died as a result of W's occupation. That number could be as high as 250,000. Over 1 million Iraqis were permanently displaced. That was a royal fuck up that caused a lot of harm. It doesn't simply go away because he wanted to make Iraq nicer by removing Hussein.

Ok. So you're a conservative now?

There's no guarantee for anything. Iraq could have worked out fine. In hindsight it was a mistake to fire all the officers of the army and put them in the same (Islamist radicalisation) camp. Not so good at the peak of Al Qaeda's influence in the Middle-East. It's easy to judge in hindsight. I think it was still worth it. There's no guarantees for anything. Evel Knievel got paid for the attempt. Not the landing.




You sound paralysed by fear.
$15 to $20 billion has been spent, the Israelis have killed the former Theocratic ruler. The IRGC is reminding the locals that they die if they talk out, let alone rise up. Even the DNI says Iran is weakened but Iran is intact. Little has actually changed other than the military that Iran wasn't using to hurt Israel is in tatters.

I can read. Much like Iraq, the assessment of an attack and the consequences were generally on the nose. We've gained very little, for a high price, and the one thing the assessments missed was the permanent weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz. You want a weaker Iran and Trump / Bibi have opened the Pandora's box that is taking the Strait of Hormuz hostage... and Iran is threatening doing like with with the Gulf!

Pragmatism isn't being paralyzed, it is recognizing the limits we have. That good wishes aren't enough to evoke change.

You don't sound pragmatic. You sound like a coward. Good wishes aren't enough to evoke change. Usually it needs to be paired with the willingness to commit violence, and having the balls to take risks and to stand for something. Why do you think Islamists are so attactive by young people today? One thing Islamists have got is balls. Something missing from western leaders today.




At least with Saddam gone is hope for positive change. That would never have happened with Saddam still in power. The situation for the regime in Iran is identical. Yeah, removing the Iranian dictator might end in a bloodbath. Revolutions typically do. Is being alive better than living in perpetual fear? The guy in Iran doesn't seem to think so.
You sound like you are arguing just for the sake of it at this point. Overthrowing the Iranian regime would take absolutely no less than 500,000 to 750,000 troops. We don't have that type of military without a draft.

I don't think boots on the ground in Iran is a good idea. And I don't think it's necessary. The Iranians hate hate hate the regime. All they need is an opening. edit: btw, Trump is such an inept loser of a politician, if anyone can fuck up a sure win, it's him.
 
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Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
Afghanistan and Iraq military efforts say otherwise.
If you want a politician to vote for your thing you need to give them another thing, they otherwise wouldn't have gotten. That's how politics work.

A politician doesn't put forward legislation he doesn't know will be passed. If he puts forward legislation that fails. That means he wanted it to fail. If Congress voted against his thing that means Trump had planned for it. He is an idiot. But I'm sure he's got enough politicians around him to explain the rules
 

We shouldn't ever attempt to remove dictators because it might end badly? That doesn't sound very progressive of you. I always thought you were a liberal?
That is funny, because people like argued otherwise 20 years ago... we can't just go in and make things better. Over 100,000 Iraqis died as a result of W's occupation. That number could be as high as 250,000. Over 1 million Iraqis were permanently displaced. That was a royal fuck up that caused a lot of harm. It doesn't simply go away because he wanted to make Iraq nicer by removing Hussein.
Ok. So you're a conservative now?

There's no guarantee for anything. Iraq could have worked out fine. In hindsight it was a mistake to fire all the officers of the army and put them in the same (Islamist radicalisation) camp. Not so good at the peak of Al Qaeda's influence in the Middle-East. It's easy to judge in hindsight. I think it was still worth it. There's no guarantees for anything.
None of the errors made by the W Admin were judged as errors in "hindsight". They were warned about before the invasion. The W Admin's occupation was a thoroughly under planned and poorly executed effort that ignored every warning, every piece of intelligence.
You sound paralysed by fear.
$15 to $20 billion has been spent, the Israelis have killed the former Theocratic ruler. The IRGC is reminding the locals that they die if they talk out, let alone rise up. Even the DNI says Iran is weakened but Iran is intact. Little has actually changed other than the military that Iran wasn't using to hurt Israel is in tatters.

I can read. Much like Iraq, the assessment of an attack and the consequences were generally on the nose. We've gained very little, for a high price, and the one thing the assessments missed was the permanent weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz. You want a weaker Iran and Trump / Bibi have opened the Pandora's box that is taking the Strait of Hormuz hostage... and Iran is threatening doing like with with the Gulf!

Pragmatism isn't being paralyzed, it is recognizing the limits we have. That good wishes aren't enough to evoke change.
You don't sound pragmatic. You sound like a coward. Good wishes aren't enough to evoke change. Usually it needs to be paired with the willingness to commit violence, and having the balls to take risks and to stand for something.
The Allies didn't win WWII because the Allies "had balls". The had something called a "plan". Iraq had no plan, Iran appears to have absolutely no plan. You can't win military efforts without a plan. The US is dismantling the military Iran has, yet seem to be no closer to regime change... and oil / gas is much more expensive as Iran is utilizing geography as a weapon.
At least with Saddam gone is hope for positive change. That would never have happened with Saddam still in power. The situation for the regime in Iran is identical. Yeah, removing the Iranian dictator might end in a bloodbath. Revolutions typically do. Is being alive better than living in perpetual fear? The guy in Iran doesn't seem to think so.
You sound like you are arguing just for the sake of it at this point. Overthrowing the Iranian regime would take absolutely no less than 500,000 to 750,000 troops. We don't have that type of military without a draft.
I don't think boots on the ground in Iran is a good idea. And I don't think it's necessary. The Iranians hate hate hate the regime.
Many of them do. That is why there are reminders on the street, radio, and TV from the Theocratic leadership that the Iranians must watch what they say or else.

Also, you are ignoring the tiny issue of the Iranians don't have a replacement for the existing regime (this isn't Burma) and the IRGC is deeply embedded in the Iranian economy and aren't going anywhere issues.
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
Well yes, that's exactly how it works. Or is supposed to work....until Dumpf
 
You sound like you are arguing just for the sake of it at this point. Overthrowing the Iranian regime would take absolutely no less than 500,000 to 750,000 troops. We don't have that type of military without a draft.
I remember a think tank (RAND if memory serves) saying minimum for an occupation to be successful it requires 20 soldiers per 1,000 civilians. That's at least 1.8 million for Iran.
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
I agree, when the politician is a criminal.
 
Here's the Facebook post of an Iranian friend. To add to this, he was a revolutionary in Iran in 1979 who helped put Khomeini in power to begin with. Then Khomeini turned on his power base. Ie, if these people can remove the Shah they can remove Khomeini. So he spent the next years being tortured an an Iranian prison. Then escaped and fled to Denmark. The regime murdered his family.

Its hard to overstate the hatred Iranians have for the regime. That makes them like what Trump is doing

Theocracy is terrible, but if this one tortured person were truly representative of the vast majority of Iranians, then they'd have a revolution against the Ayatollah decades ago. He is statistically representative of a minority and if the US goes in there boots on the ground to deliver regime change, it's also an ideological change that would take decades of occupation to "win," like post-WWII occupation of Nazi Germany. This is the same mistake made in Afghanistan and Vietnam. You need to have (1) a clear moral high ground to the vast majority of the populace, (2) a commitment of occupation lasting decades, and (3) a large occupation and reeducation over that whole course.

Violent Christian Nationalists will not convince the majority of the populace. So far as (2) and (3), if we look at Venezuela as an example of things to come, there is no interest in this. Emperor Hair Furor wants a vassal state out of Iran and only cares about its leadership inasmuch as the leader obeys him. Theocracy could remain intact. Further, the American people do not want to commit to what is necessary to do a real longstanding regime change in Iran (2 and 3) because of the economic burden and commitment of their sons' and daughters' lives.
Aside from all of that, with which I do not really disagree: Iranians do not want to be a vassal state.

The truly tragic thing is that, as horrible as the Shah ( who we installed) was, Iranians the rest of the Mid-East was modernizing. There was a huge movement towards progress, largely fueled by oil wealth and the West opened its universities to students from the Middle East as a firm of soft diplomacy. Moving towards democracy requires an educated population. With an educated population, it is impossible to stop democracy.

Which explains the GOP war on education since Reagan.
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
In the US? With majorities in both chambers? Yeah, it is.
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
In the US? With majorities in both chambers? Yeah, it is.
So, is he tacitly admitting that even Congress knew it was a bad idea, despite the implication above that it would be good?

When Congress won’t agree to it the President doesn’t get to just do it. There are certainly many of us who are against the war not because we like the Iranian regime.
 

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.
If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work
In the US? With majorities in both chambers? Yeah, it is.
So, is he tacitly admitting that even Congress knew it was a bad idea, despite the implication above that it would be good?

When Congress won’t agree to it the President doesn’t get to just do it. There are certainly many of us who are against the war not because we like the Iranian regime.
Oh, I think most of us think it’s a terrible idea, no matter what our political leanings.

I was just suggesting that Trump has an inordinate amount of power over both the Senate and the House. To the detriment of t of all US citizens and frankly, the world. Trump at his best is a greedy bastard who is only ever in anything fur whatever he can get out of it. But even with a more benign POTUS, POTUS should never have extreme sway over Congress. No Kings or Queens, and all that jazz.
 

Both sides. I agree, Congress shouldn't profit from foreknowledge of legislation. It isn't ethical. Granted, being in such positions of power also provides a general foreknowledge as to where the future is headed. Regardless, it'd be nice if such knowledge wasn't taken advantage of.

Regarding the S&P and Oil, this is a war of sorts. NO ONE, should profit from war.

And yet, the only real reason we have wars is that somebody profits. The rest is just PR.

It occurred to me, the solution to the Social Security shortfall would be to invest 1/2 of the FICA funds in a way that matches the investments of those in Congress.
 

Both sides. I agree, Congress shouldn't profit from foreknowledge of legislation. It isn't ethical. Granted, being in such positions of power also provides a general foreknowledge as to where the future is headed. Regardless, it'd be nice if such knowledge wasn't taken advantage of.

Regarding the S&P and Oil, this is a war of sorts. NO ONE, should profit from war.

And yet, the only real reason we have wars is that somebody profits. The rest is just PR.

It occurred to me, the solution to the Social Security shortfall would be to invest 1/2 of the FICA funds in a way that matches the investments of those in Congress.


My father was always very adamantly opposed to the government investing SS in markets. Although I did not agree with him much politically, I agree with that.

The better solution is to collect SS on earnings at higher earned income than is currently taxed for SS. For 2026, the current amount of labor income subject to SS tax is $184,500. I think it should be significantly higher. That would help.

Younger generations than we Boomers are and will increasingly complain that there will be nothing left in SS for them. It is the consequence of generations having much smaller families or foregoing children altogether. I wrote this without any judgement at all: it is what it is.

Now, before the deluge of how good we boomers always had it begins, I’d like to point out some things:

1. We were raised by traumatized parents born into or just before the Great Depression during which there was no social safety net and people died of starvation here in the US. Including at least one of my relatives. Their parents endured WWI with all of those traumas and privations as well. They endured WWII with all that meant. Rationing, air raids, loss of fathers, sons, brothers. More deprivation. Some of our fathers served in Korea as well. Some of us were conceived to keep our fathers out of Korea.

Of course the 50’s, much sanitized were times of prosperity. That prosperity was relative. My kids consider how I grew up to be ‘poor.’ We were not poor. We did not have much money but my parents bought Avery modest house when their 4th child was born. AFAIK, there was never any worry about not being able to make re t or the mortgage. My mother was a stay at home mother, which was living the dream. Both of my parents were raised on families where one of their parents was chronically ill until they died early in their childhoods, and mostly raised themselves. My grandparents were poor during their kids’ childhoods and in fact, I remember when both of sets of grandparents got indoor plumbing.

We endured measles, mumps, rubella and chickenpox because there were no vaccinations against such. Fortunately there was a vaccine for smallpox which is why we all have scars on our upper arms.

Our parents were thrilled to be able to have only one parent working, at least when we were small. That does not mean all the mothers were happy at home but had to listen to society tell them they were happy and lucky even if they felt trapped.

More of us got to finish high school and avoiding the draft (Viet Nam) encouraged more boys to go to college. We girls had to fight to be allowed to play sports, wear pants to school or take classes that were considered ‘too hard’ or too masculine. A friend in high school who dreamed of becoming an architect was not allowed to take a drafting class in high school. Homecoming was required for girls and forbidden to boys.

We had fewer siblings because our mothers could get the Pill and some of us managed to do it as well. Some of us had abortions. Some of us got married at 14 or 15 or 16. We had to drop out of school.

Women could not get credit in their own names nor a mortgage until 1974. When I was in college, in order to go on the Pill, you needed to want it for menstrual cramps. Not to prevent pregnancy. Guys did not like condoms. It made it harder to delay or refuse sex if you were t sure about whether the guy ‘really liked you.’ We were just beginning to talk about whether or not we wanted to have sex or if we really liked the guy. It was a bit scandalous if you didn’t like a guy back in high school. You hid your loss of virginity from your parents.

Help wanted ads were divided by male or female. Males got paid substantially more. One job I had, I was told to wear my skirt shorter and almost got fired when I discouraged a customer from hitting on me with some gentle humor. I was far less gentle when threatened by a make coworker who was more than twice my size. Fortunately he did not complain. I needed that lousy job.

We also got to experience the drug revolution, with lots of pot and in my day, mostly Fuentes rather than speed. Unfortunately that did not go away but only exoanddd to our current situation.

That only takes into account what one faced if one was white and straight. I barely knew what ‘gay’ was until I was in college—that is, I heard the word, mostly as an insult, and was vaguely aware that one of my classmates was gay, which was far from the worst problem he had. I had a couple of black classmates in the first school ( first grade) I attended and none after my parents moved to the town I grew up in. I did not meet anyone not born in the USA until I was in college. This was common unless you lived in major metropolitan areas, especially in the Midwest.

Most people had a single television which received 4 stations, all controlled by the father when he was home. Stereos? One was shared by my family. A guy I dated bought his own from money he earned at jibs that pays a lot more than the $0.50/hr I got babysitting, the only job I was allowed to have.

This was all just normal. Just middle class normal.
 
When the German Nazi regime went most West Germans were happy to see it go.
FTFY. Germans in the Soviet Occupation Zone were not happy at all.

And when the German Nazi regime went, the German people had endured three years of disaster, including the demolition of their cities, starvation level rationing, and increasingly harsh security measures that applied even to middle class aryan Germans with no history of association with communists.

Even so, the immediate feeling, even in the American, British and French Zones, was fear and uncertainty. They may not have loved Hitler, but they didn't want him to lose, when losing meant the enemy, who had been dropping bombs on their homes, would turn up in person and put boots on their doorsteps, and rifle muzzles in their faces.

It took years of Marshall Plan largesse and denazification programs to make even the West Germans happy about the result; Any immediate happiness was more relief that the war was over, rather than embracing of a change in regime.

Particularly as the vast majority of Getmans had overwhelmingly supported and loved the regime as recently as 1941 - and why not, when it had made them rich, and had conquered the world? Most Germans in 1941 felt about as much dislike for the Nazi regime, as Americans in 1991 felt for the US regime.

Three years is a long time in politics.

The Iranian people may have been mostly keen on regime change a couple of months ago (though they would never have wanted the US or Israel to be involved in such change). I sincerely doubt that they are more keen on regime change now. Now they are at war (which always bolsters a regime); Their leaders have walked the walk as regards self-sacrifice and martyrdom; And the Americans and Israelis have demonstrated with high explosives dropped from the skies that the propaganda about their evil was true and justified.

It's very hard to believe that the good guys are the ones who drop bombs on your kids, and the bad guys are the ones who try to shoot back at them.

Geopolitics and political philosophy don't play much of a role in people's loyalties, when they are running for an air raid shelter while explosives and shrapnel rain from the skies.

Politicians and political thinkers almost always overestimate the role political philosophy plays in ordinary people's everyday opinion forming. Most people don't support (or oppose) a regime because they sat down and studied the policies and actions of the leaders. That's why students are over-represented at every revolution.

Ordinary people care about the price of eggs. They couldn't care less if their leaders are evil, or stupid, or paint themselves orange.
 
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