How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Putin has finally broken his stunned silence after the collapse of his army in northeast Ukraine:

Putin says Russia is in "no hurry" in first public remarks on Ukrainian counteroffensive​

He seems to have lost some of his bravado, but he had this to say regarding his crackpot justification for initiating all the death and destruction:

Putin also took aim at the West in his justification for the invasion, claiming that "for decades, the idea of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of classical Russia has been cultivated in the West."

No more has that collapse been more evident than in the repeated failures and losses by his larger, better-equipped and better-trained military in this atrocious unprovoked invasion. Putin spend a fortune on building an expensive, shiny new military, and it ended up trashing itself in a stupid, unnecessary war that has benefitted no one but arms manufacturers.

 

[bilby]

Putin has finally broken his stunned silence after the collapse of his army in northeast Ukraine:

Putin says Russia is in "no hurry" in first public remarks on Ukrainian counteroffensive​

He seems to have lost some of his bravado, but he had this to say regarding his crackpot justification for initiating all the death and destruction:

Putin also took aim at the West in his justification for the invasion, claiming that "for decades, the idea of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of classical Russia has been cultivated in the West."

No more has that collapse been more evident than in the repeated failures and losses by his larger, better-equipped and better-trained military in this atrocious unprovoked invasion. Putin spend a fortune on building an expensive, shiny new military, and it ended up trashing itself in a stupid, unnecessary war that has benefitted no one but arms manufacturers.

Someone needs to point out to him that for decades, the collapse of the Soviet Union has been an established historical fact.

We're not trying to cultivate the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, either.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think we're still with the old Soviet state business model. The most important thing for sale is propaganda.

 

[crazyfingers]

Putin has finally broken his stunned silence after the collapse of his army in northeast Ukraine:

Putin says Russia is in "no hurry" in first public remarks on Ukrainian counteroffensive​

He seems to have lost some of his bravado, but he had this to say regarding his crackpot justification for initiating all the death and destruction:

Putin also took aim at the West in his justification for the invasion, claiming that "for decades, the idea of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of classical Russia has been cultivated in the West."

No more has that collapse been more evident than in the repeated failures and losses by his larger, better-equipped and better-trained military in this atrocious unprovoked invasion. Putin spend a fortune on building an expensive, shiny new military, and it ended up trashing itself in a stupid, unnecessary war that has benefitted no one but arms manufacturers.

Would Putin's head explode if the learned that very likely most people in the west would have loved to have seen Russia transformed into a free, democratic and economically prosperous country that was within it's grasp in the late 1980's and early 1990's but which Putin squashed? I think still most people would prefer to see a free, democratic and prosperous Russia than the miserable failure that Putin has made it. I'd expect only a very few would prefer to see Russia continue as the failure that it is.

 

[Copernicus]

Would Putin's head explode if the learned that very likely most people in the west would have loved to have seen Russia transformed into a free, democratic and economically prosperous country that was within it's grasp in the late 1980's and early 1990's but which Putin squashed? I think still most people would prefer to see a free, democratic and prosperous Russia than the miserable failure that Putin has made it. I'd expect only a very few would prefer to see Russia continue as the failure that it is.

When I visited the headquarters of Boeing Russia in 1997, there were very high hopes for the future. The new employees seemed a little unsure about how it was going to work out in the future, but their division just grew in the years that follow until Putin crashed plans for further development and cooperation. Those of us in R&D actually had a very productive and useful relationship with Boeing Russia on some of our projects. We were very unhappy when all of that came to an end. They did very high quality work.

 

[lpetrich]

 2022 Russian businessmen mystery deaths - Updated: A list of oligarchs and Putin critics found dead since Ukraine war | Euronews - Updated: 14/09/2022

"During 2022, multiple unusual deaths of Russian-connected businessmen occurred, of which most were suicides. A number of commentators have suggested that the circumstances of the suicides appear to be suspicious and may have been staged."

 2022 Russian mystery fires - Ukrainian sabotage?

 

[Jayjay]

So was it Putin’s plan just to leave all along then? If so, why’d he go there in the first place?

Yes, they planned to leave it. They went there in March hoping to get Slavyansk but it did not work, so were staying there doing nothing eventually they left ~2000 of police units and DNR (not russian army). It's a war, most of the time plans don't go as planned.

If it was planned, then it was the stupidest fucking plan I've ever seen.

Why leave behind valuable special hardware like counter-battery radars, command vehicles, EW jammers, and so on? According to UK:

Also there is a huge amount of images and videos of tanks, APCs and artillery left behind, for example here:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

I could understand that in a planned withdrawal, you might need to leave some broken or out-of-fuel vehicles behind, and some of them would need to cover the escape, but it's pretty obvious that in Kharkiv that was not the case. It was a disorderly withdrawal, and Russia hadn't prepared any defensive lines in advance in the new positions.

In the end NATO lost ~2000 soldiers dead while russians lost pretty much zero and have much more defendable position for the winter or until ukrainian regime surrenders, whichever comes first.

NATO lost 0 soldiers, because NATO isn't in Ukraine. Even if you count volunteers from NATO countries, there are only a handful of them, and to my knowledge none of them were killed in the Kharkiv offensive.

As for ~2000 Ukrainian casualties during a 4 day operation, that's laughable. Only source for that number is the Russian MoD which is known to make up stuff before. There are no estimates from third parties, but based on how much video footage has surfaced compare to other offensive in Kherson for example, the Ukrainian casualties seem very light.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But that raises an interesting issue. After the fall of Kherson and nearby territory to its northeast, where next? I'm sure that the Ukrainian armed forces will cross the Dneiper River. They may either go eastward to Melitopol and Mariupol and Donetsk, or else go southward to Crimea. A difficulty with that peninsula is that its connections with the mainland are six very narrow ones, ones that are easy to defend. The broadest one is at Perekop, and that one is about 9 km / 5 1/2 mi wide at its narrowest point. That is the westernmost one, and the next three ones to the east are both roads on embankments that split the water, then two bridges further to the east, each about 100 m / 300 ft long.

An alternative is to land a lot of troops on some Crimea beach, much like the D-Day assault in World War II and many similar ones. But I doubt that Ukraine has much practice in troop landings. Ukraine would also need a fleet of landing boats, like the US LCVP's of WWII, and I doubt that Ukraine has a lot of those.

Why would they want to go towards Crimea? Simply cut the supply lines and let them be.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukrainian soldiers are refurbishing abandoned Russian tanks and trucks

It was an early and delightful symbol of underdog resistance. Dubbed the “John Deere Brigade,” Ukrainian tractors were shown all over social media lugging away hastily abandoned Russian military equipment, from tanks to self-propelled artillery systems to complicated air defense platforms, worth tens of millions of dollars. Western predictions that Ukraine would fall to its invaders in as little as three days proved wildly off base. The breadbasket of Europe could punch above its weight. And now it was in the repo business.

Around the time of the Battle of Kyiv, captured Russian vehicles were generally just given a quick coat of paint and liberally decked out with Ukrainian flags before being sent back out to fight their previous owners. But what was at first an organic and ad hoc tractor effort by Ukrainian farmers has transformed into something far more organized and systematic, as the Ukrainian military have pushed vast quantities of captured Russian armor into frontline service. And since Ukraine retook almost all of Kharkiv district in the last week, there has been a windfall of new vehicles to “MacGyver” and repurpose.

Noting Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx
Linking to pictures of Russian military equipment that was destroyed or abandoned or captured.

"Russia - 6097, of which: destroyed: 3788, damaged: 140, abandoned: 303, captured: 1866"

 

[Jayjay]

Russia had $340 billion in monetary reserves stashed in various banks in the West. That will be conficated and given to Ukraine in partial recompensation to rebuild Ukraine.

I hope so. Last I heard there was no legal way to do this. Perhaps if they are labeled a terrorist state.

Legal? I don't think that is an issue. Was it legal to seize yachts? It's not like we're invading and murdering civilians which is what the Putinistas are doing.

Rule of law is one of the core values of western civilizations. Ukraine is asking for UN resolution as means for doing this, but that's a bit shaky. I think if there's no other legal way, then separate laws have to be put in place.

Ukraine plans to seek at least $300 billion in war reparations from Russia

Ukraine plans to seek at least $300 billion in war reparations from Russia, Ukrainian Justice Minister Denis Malyuska told the German Funke media group, as reported by German broadcaster Deutsche Welle on Sept. 9.

english.nv.ua

Ukraine plans to seek at least $300 billion in war reparations from Russia, Ukrainian Justice Minister Denis Malyuska told the German Funke media group, as reported by German broadcaster Deutsche Welle on Sept. 9.

“We want compensation for all the damage that Russia has caused to Ukraine with its aggressive war,” Malyuska said.

Ukraine also wants to achieve the adoption of a UN General Assembly resolution that will be the basis for the creation of an international compensation mechanism.

According to German news agency DPA, the damage Ukraine has suffered as a result of the Russian attack is much higher, but the amount of $300 billion corresponds to the international assets of the Central Bank of Russia, which were frozen under sanctions.

I think there's also the possibility of negotiated solution between Ukraine and Russia: if the confiscated assets are going to be given to Ukraine anyway, then Russia might be willing to accept a deal where they are formally given by Russia to Ukraine as reparations, as part of a peace deal.

 

[lpetrich]

Looking at sites like War Mapper (@War_Mapper) / Twitter the war has reverted to a slow hard slog, though with Ukraine slowly advancing. Like:

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have crossed the Oskil river in Kupiansk and have liberated the eastern side of the city.
also crossed the river south of the settlement of Oskil and advanced to Studenok and Sosnove. have reportedly already abandoned both of these settlements.
(pic link)" / Twitter

 

[Jayjay]

Looking at sites like War Mapper (@War_Mapper) / Twitter the war has reverted to a slow hard slog, though with Ukraine slowly advancing. Like:

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have crossed the Oskil river in Kupiansk and have liberated the eastern side of the city.
also crossed the river south of the settlement of Oskil and advanced to Studenok and Sosnove. have reportedly already abandoned both of these settlements.
(pic link)" / Twitter

Anyone who thinks that Russia will just crumble after a single attack is a fool.

This is more like death by a thousand cuts. Or possibly Russia will gain the upper hand again like it did in late May and June.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Looking at sites like War Mapper (@War_Mapper) / Twitter the war has reverted to a slow hard slog, though with Ukraine slowly advancing. Like:

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have crossed the Oskil river in Kupiansk and have liberated the eastern side of the city.
also crossed the river south of the settlement of Oskil and advanced to Studenok and Sosnove. have reportedly already abandoned both of these settlements.
(pic link)" / Twitter

Anyone who thinks that Russia will just crumble after a single attack is a fool.

This is more like death by a thousand cuts. Or possibly Russia will gain the upper hand again like it did in late May and June.

Keep in mind while Russian “volunteers” get little if any training, Ukrainians are being trained for five weeks at one of six training facilities in the UK by trainers from eight or nine different countries. Ukraine is putting soldiers on the field. Russia is putting fodder.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Looking at sites like War Mapper (@War_Mapper) / Twitter the war has reverted to a slow hard slog, though with Ukraine slowly advancing. Like:

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have crossed the Oskil river in Kupiansk and have liberated the eastern side of the city.
also crossed the river south of the settlement of Oskil and advanced to Studenok and Sosnove. have reportedly already abandoned both of these settlements.
(pic link)" / Twitter

Anyone who thinks that Russia will just crumble after a single attack is a fool.

This is more like death by a thousand cuts. Or possibly Russia will gain the upper hand again like it did in late May and June.

Keep in mind while Russian “volunteers” get little if any training, Ukrainians are being trained for five weeks at one of six training facilities in the UK by trainers from eight or nine different countries. Ukraine is putting soldiers on the field. Russia is putting fodder.

But they have a lot of fodder. I actually feel pretty sorry for Russian troops. They are incredibly untrained, no supplies, terrible leadership, god awful intelligence, and etc. Russia has always treated their troops horribly.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Boy, western propaganda is very strong.

Here is a bad news for you. Ukrainians took a territory which russians simply left.
And in doing so ukrainian took heavy losses. They punched the air and lost.

LOL. So Russia left the land willingly and deliberately, but Ukraine took "heavy losses" taking land devoid of enemy troops and against NO Russian resistance?

And you... you actually believe that?! I mean, no Russian stooge has ever been shown to not be stupid, gullible, and/or abjectly immoral. I had you pegged as merely the last one, but dang... You're aiming for a hat trick on this one.

You must explain this to me. How in the world did Russian propaganda convince you of this ridiculous fabrication? Is it high quality, fact based Russian reporting (lol), or is it merely that you lack any and all capability to identify utterly stupid drivel and transparent lies?

Sadly, it's scary easy to fool people. I always took my kids to see magicians and street performers. There were some good ones in the town where we raised our kids. But I thought that it was important for them to understand how easily it is for us to be fooled. One of my best friends met a con; and lost $200,000 overnight. It can happen to anyone who hasn't been taught how to be skeptical and suspicious.

 

[steve_bank]

Ukrainians are being trained by NATO people probably with combat experince.

 

[Elixir]

LOL. So Russia left the land willingly and deliberately, but Ukraine took "heavy losses" taking land devoid of enemy troops and against NO Russian resistance?

Have you not been paying attention?
Of course Ukraine is shelling its own troops to make it look like they’re overcoming impossible odds.

Baghdad Barbie is getting funnier by the hour now. By the time Putler is deposed, he should do very well on the stand-up circuit.

 

[Copernicus]

Boy, western propaganda is very strong.

Here is a bad news for you. Ukrainians took a territory which russians simply left.
And in doing so ukrainian took heavy losses. They punched the air and lost.

LOL. So Russia left the land willingly and deliberately, but Ukraine took "heavy losses" taking land devoid of enemy troops and against NO Russian resistance?

And you... you actually believe that?! I mean, no Russian stooge has ever been shown to not be stupid, gullible, and/or abjectly immoral. I had you pegged as merely the last one, but dang... You're aiming for a hat trick on this one.

You must explain this to me. How in the world did Russian propaganda convince you of this ridiculous fabrication? Is it high quality, fact based Russian reporting (lol), or is it merely that you lack any and all capability to identify utterly stupid drivel and transparent lies?

Sadly, it's scary easy to fool people. I always took my kids to see magicians and street performers. There were some good ones in the town where we raised our kids. But I thought that it was important for them to understand how easily it is for us to be fooled. One of my best friends met a con; and lost $200,000 overnight. It can happen to anyone who hasn't been taught how to be skeptical and suspicious.

It's wrong to think of Russians as not being skeptical or suspicious. They know full well that they are being fed bullshit from their own government. The reason propaganda works so well for an autocratic regime is not just that people are trusting and gullible. The skepticism and suspicion cuts both ways. People don't really know who to trust or how much of the propaganda is based on an embellishment of the truth. So they apply the same standard of skepticism and suspicion to Western information sources. Everybody is out to hoodwink them, but who is spreading the least number of lies? Some foreign news source or your own government? Generally speaking, people tend to trust the side that speaks their own language and assures them that things will turn out well. That doesn't mean that they don't realize they are being told some lies about what is happening in Ukraine. Of course they are. They expect it. They just aren't likely to trust enemy propaganda as much as they do their own, not to mention the fact that they aren't saturated with enemy propaganda daily. But it's all propaganda to them now. Nobody tells the full truth anymore.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Looking at sites like War Mapper (@War_Mapper) / Twitter the war has reverted to a slow hard slog, though with Ukraine slowly advancing. Like:

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have crossed the Oskil river in Kupiansk and have liberated the eastern side of the city.
also crossed the river south of the settlement of Oskil and advanced to Studenok and Sosnove. have reportedly already abandoned both of these settlements.
(pic link)" / Twitter

Anyone who thinks that Russia will just crumble after a single attack is a fool.

This is more like death by a thousand cuts. Or possibly Russia will gain the upper hand again like it did in late May and June.

Keep in mind while Russian “volunteers” get little if any training, Ukrainians are being trained for five weeks at one of six training facilities in the UK by trainers from eight or nine different countries. Ukraine is putting soldiers on the field. Russia is putting fodder.

But they have a lot of fodder. I actually feel pretty sorry for Russian troops. They are incredibly untrained, no supplies, terrible leadership, god awful intelligence, and etc. Russia has always treated their troops horribly.

They're not shooting them anymore. Hey, gotta take what you can get!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's wrong to think of Russians as not being skeptical or suspicious. They know full well that they are being fed bullshit from their own government. The reason propaganda works so well for an autocratic regime is not just that people are trusting and gullible. The skepticism and suspicion cuts both ways. People don't really know who to trust or how much of the propaganda is based on an embellishment of the truth. So they apply the same standard of skepticism and suspicion to Western information sources. Everybody is out to hoodwink you, but who is spreading the least number of lies? Some foreign news source or your own government? Generally speaking, people tend to trust the side that speaks their own language and assures them that things will turn out well. That doesn't mean that they don't realize they are being told some lies about what is happening in Ukraine. Of course they are. They expect it. They just aren't likely to trust enemy propaganda as much as they do their own, not to mention the fact that they aren't saturated with enemy propaganda daily. But it's all propaganda to them now. Nobody tells the full truth anymore.

Are Russian citizens getting the same breadth of information? Are they allowed to protest, criticize their officials without fear of reprisal? It's a question of who is more free, isn't it?