The death of Tyre Nichols

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I have been googling trying to find the source of that graph. I found something very similar, i.e. this:


The authors state this is a 34-city sample. They may have some ideological bias, not sure, what. I haven't had time to read through their report. In any case, one can see when it is monthy rather than weekly, that the increase begins February-ish.

Something else to note--I've only read a couple of paragraphs in the neighborhood of the graph in the report. In there, they had claimed a seasonal cycle in homicides with homicides rising in spring/summer months and declining in fall/winter months. So, if you look at 2017-2019 you can sort of see this. Who knows if it holds at all for a couple of decades and if it is just authors blowing smoke. BUT, if you accept that tentatively, and look just at cycles 2017-2019, you see July peaks and February dips. (First). Then, compare February dip in 2017 to 2018 and 2019 and you can see they are all around the same level. But the dip in February 2020 is way above the other 3 dips.

The CDC data which goes back further to 2014, shows a similar cycle with dips around February. So, this cycle may be related to temperature? More aggravation, more people out and about. More effect in higher population density areas with more crime and more poverty. Not sure.

In any case, if you look at the CDC data, you can see that the Feb dip is at the highest level for February's in 2020. That is Feb 2020 > Feb 2019, Feb 2020 > Feb 2018, Feb 2020 > Feb 2017, Feb 2020 > Feb 2016, Feb 2020 > Feb 2015, and Feb 2020 > Feb 2014.

ETA: Tyre Nichols was stopped by police Jan 7th. So, none of this seems related to his death.

 

[TomC]

IMO the increases in homicides is a combination of many things, not just one singular issue.

This is so crucial.
Trying to reduce a huge problem to "A Reason" isn't helping anything. Focusing hugely on any one aspect, to the point of dismissing other important issues, doesn't either.
Tom

 

[Toni]

IMO the increases in homicides is a combination of many things, not just one singular issue.

This is so crucial.
Trying to reduce a huge problem to "A Reason" isn't helping anything. Focusing hugely on any one aspect, to the point of dismissing other important issues, doesn't either.
Tom

That's true but eliminating reasons will probably be accomplished individually, not en masse.

 

[Oleg]

I have been googling trying to find the source of that graph.

The rise in murders in the US, explained

The homicide rate is significantly up in American cities. Here are some explanations for why.

www.vox.com

In there, they had claimed a seasonal cycle in homicides with homicides rising in spring/summer months and declining in fall/winter months.

Right. There’s typically an uptick at the start of the year. That doesn’t explain the late May 2020 spike.

ETA: Tyre Nichols was stopped by police Jan 7th. So, none of this seems related to his death.

It isn’t.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I have been googling trying to find the source of that graph.

The rise in murders in the US, explained

The homicide rate is significantly up in American cities. Here are some explanations for why.

www.vox.com

In there, they had claimed a seasonal cycle in homicides with homicides rising in spring/summer months and declining in fall/winter months.

Right. There’s typically an uptick at the start of the year. That doesn’t explain the late May 2020 spike.

Your "hypothesis" doesn't explain the decrease.

 

[laughing dog]

Do you have any evidence to support your hand waving that the jump is do solely to emboldened criminals

The timing and the race of the victims.

Why would the race of the victims be evidence that the jump is due solely to emboldened criminals.

Still waiting for an explanation

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I have been googling trying to find the source of that graph.

The rise in murders in the US, explained

The homicide rate is significantly up in American cities. Here are some explanations for why.

www.vox.com

In there, they had claimed a seasonal cycle in homicides with homicides rising in spring/summer months and declining in fall/winter months.

Right. There’s typically an uptick at the start of the year. That doesn’t explain the late May 2020 spike.

As pointed out, there was already a baseline difference by February 2020 as compared to previous Februaries. It's not necessarily a constant difference or linear but could plausibly be pandemic variable(s).

ETA: Tyre Nichols was stopped by police Jan 7th. So, none of this seems related to his death.

It isn’t.

Then why don't you make a different thread?

 

[Oleg]

Do you have any evidence to support your hand waving that the jump is do solely to emboldened criminals

The timing and the race of the victims.

Why would the race of the victims be evidence that the jump is due solely to emboldened criminals.

Still waiting for an explanation

Most homicide is intra-racial. The de-policing was in urban neighborhoods.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Do you have any evidence to support your hand waving that the jump is do solely to emboldened criminals

The timing and the race of the victims.

Why would the race of the victims be evidence that the jump is due solely to emboldened criminals.

Still waiting for an explanation

Most homicide is intra-racial. The de-policing was in urban neighborhoods.

So why did the murder rate drop then?

 

[Oleg]

Do you have any evidence to support your hand waving that the jump is do solely to emboldened criminals

The timing and the race of the victims.

Why would the race of the victims be evidence that the jump is due solely to emboldened criminals.

Still waiting for an explanation

Most homicide is intra-racial. The de-policing was in urban neighborhoods.

So why did the murder rate drop then?

The summer of Floyd ended.

 

[Politesse]

I have stayed my objections to this phony and unevidenced line reasoning, and stand by that. But even if it were true...

If the only way the police can think of to stop unjustly executing citizens is to "withdraw" and stop policing altogether, that is strong evidence that BLM was correct to criticize American policing in the first place. Personally, I'll take a momentary bump in the murder rate if it is the price of re-establishing the rule of law and the fundamental rights of citizens. Ordering the police not to murder people should not "reduce morale", and if it does, we need new police or no police. What good is it to have peace at the cost of terror?

I'm not especially convinced that the police prevent murders at all. If we're so convinced that correlation always proves causation, what does it mean that the areas the police patrol most heavily also see the most murders? If they see their job as stopping murders from happening, they clearly aren't very effective at doing so. Nor do I think they do see that as their job. At least around here, they usually show up a half hour after the murder, to shoot the family dog and arrest folks. Never heard of a police officer stopping a future murder from occurring.

 

[Oleg]

If the only way the police can think of to stop unjusttly executing citizens

This is batshit crazy.

 

[Politesse]

If the only way the police can think of to stop unjusttly executing citizens

This is batshit crazy.

It's not my damn argument. Why would it "hurt morale" to protest police killings?

 

[TomC]

I'm nitvespecially convonced that tge police prevent murders at all.

How Californian?
I don't even understand what language you're posting in, maybe Klingon?
Tom

 

[Oleg]

If the only way the police can think of to stop unjusttly executing citizens

This is batshit crazy.

It's not my damn argument. Why would it "hurt morale" to protest police killings?

You really believe cops start their shift aiming to “unjustly execute” people every day?

 

[Politesse]

I'm nitvespecially convonced that tge police prevent murders at all.

How Californian?
I don't even understand what language you're posting in, maybe Klingon?
Tom

I'm clumsy on the phone.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Most homicide is intra-racial. The de-policing was in urban neighborhoods.

So why did the murder rate drop then?

The summer of Floyd ended.

So it wasn't a policing thing then?

 

[Politesse]

If the only way the police can think of to stop unjusttly executing citizens

This is batshit crazy.

It's not my damn argument. Why would it "hurt morale" to protest police killings?

You really believe cops start their shift aiming to “unjustly execute” people every day?

No, I think the entire argument is a fat load of bullshit. BLM is not making police too sad to do their jobs, and neither BLM nor the police are responsible for the recent upswing in murders. The police are incompetent, and BLM though ineffective is right to criticize previous and present abuses of power. But people don't ask for permission from either the police or BLM before deciding to kill somebody. The very idea is absurd.

 

[laughing dog]

I'm nitvespecially convonced that tge police prevent murders at all.

How Californian?
I don't even understand what language you're posting in, maybe Klingon?
Tom

I'm clumsy on the phone.

Aren't we all?

 

[Politesse]

I'm nitvespecially convonced that tge police prevent murders at all.

How Californian?
I don't even understand what language you're posting in, maybe Klingon?
Tom

I'm clumsy on the phone.

Aren't we all?

Only the P'taQs and Qovpahtls too foolish to spellcheck before posting.