Don2 (Don1 Revised)
Contributor
I have been googling trying to find the source of that graph. I found something very similar, i.e. this:
The authors state this is a 34-city sample. They may have some ideological bias, not sure, what. I haven't had time to read through their report. In any case, one can see when it is monthy rather than weekly, that the increase begins February-ish.
Something else to note--I've only read a couple of paragraphs in the neighborhood of the graph in the report. In there, they had claimed a seasonal cycle in homicides with homicides rising in spring/summer months and declining in fall/winter months. So, if you look at 2017-2019 you can sort of see this. Who knows if it holds at all for a couple of decades and if it is just authors blowing smoke. BUT, if you accept that tentatively, and look just at cycles 2017-2019, you see July peaks and February dips. (First). Then, compare February dip in 2017 to 2018 and 2019 and you can see they are all around the same level. But the dip in February 2020 is way above the other 3 dips.
The CDC data which goes back further to 2014, shows a similar cycle with dips around February. So, this cycle may be related to temperature? More aggravation, more people out and about. More effect in higher population density areas with more crime and more poverty. Not sure.
In any case, if you look at the CDC data, you can see that the Feb dip is at the highest level for February's in 2020. That is Feb 2020 > Feb 2019, Feb 2020 > Feb 2018, Feb 2020 > Feb 2017, Feb 2020 > Feb 2016, Feb 2020 > Feb 2015, and Feb 2020 > Feb 2014.
ETA: Tyre Nichols was stopped by police Jan 7th. So, none of this seems related to his death.
The authors state this is a 34-city sample. They may have some ideological bias, not sure, what. I haven't had time to read through their report. In any case, one can see when it is monthy rather than weekly, that the increase begins February-ish.
Something else to note--I've only read a couple of paragraphs in the neighborhood of the graph in the report. In there, they had claimed a seasonal cycle in homicides with homicides rising in spring/summer months and declining in fall/winter months. So, if you look at 2017-2019 you can sort of see this. Who knows if it holds at all for a couple of decades and if it is just authors blowing smoke. BUT, if you accept that tentatively, and look just at cycles 2017-2019, you see July peaks and February dips. (First). Then, compare February dip in 2017 to 2018 and 2019 and you can see they are all around the same level. But the dip in February 2020 is way above the other 3 dips.
The CDC data which goes back further to 2014, shows a similar cycle with dips around February. So, this cycle may be related to temperature? More aggravation, more people out and about. More effect in higher population density areas with more crime and more poverty. Not sure.
In any case, if you look at the CDC data, you can see that the Feb dip is at the highest level for February's in 2020. That is Feb 2020 > Feb 2019, Feb 2020 > Feb 2018, Feb 2020 > Feb 2017, Feb 2020 > Feb 2016, Feb 2020 > Feb 2015, and Feb 2020 > Feb 2014.
ETA: Tyre Nichols was stopped by police Jan 7th. So, none of this seems related to his death.