How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

Russia starts messing with US surveillance drones over Black Sea:

Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea after intercept | CNN Politics

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.

edition.cnn.com

Wonder what this will lead to? Russia is obviously testing US reaction, and seeing if it can get away with it. And it probably can. Also, since the drone made an emergency landing, did the US recover it yet or is it possible that it will end up in Russian hands?

Loose the hounds balloons!

 

[Ford]

Russia starts messing with US surveillance drones over Black Sea:

Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea after intercept | CNN Politics

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.

edition.cnn.com

Wonder what this will lead to? Russia is obviously testing US reaction, and seeing if it can get away with it. And it probably can. Also, since the drone made an emergency landing, did the US recover it yet or is it possible that it will end up in Russian hands?

Well if nothing else, it proves that Putin is not learning anything.

"Hmm...my 'special military operation' that was supposed to be over in a weekend has lasted over a year, and my soldiers are getting slaughtered by Ukraine using out of date, leftover US weapons. What should I do? Oh! I know! Start a confrontation with the US!"

 

[Jayjay]

Russia starts messing with US surveillance drones over Black Sea:

Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea after intercept | CNN Politics

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.

edition.cnn.com

Wonder what this will lead to? Russia is obviously testing US reaction, and seeing if it can get away with it. And it probably can. Also, since the drone made an emergency landing, did the US recover it yet or is it possible that it will end up in Russian hands?

Loose the hounds balloons!

Unfortunately there's nothing US can do about this. If the MQ-9 is replaced, Russia will just do this again. If the US arms the drone (I think it can carry missiles), and shoots back, then Russia will take that as a permission to use its own SAMs to shoot the next drones down, without risking manned aircraft. And US can't send aircraft carriers or other forces to the Black Sea without Turkey's approval, which it won't give.

Maybe the threat of arming the drone is enough deterrence, but I doubt it.

Ukraine will lose a very valuable source of intelligence if US is pushed way from the Black Sea airspace. Sure there are still satellites, but it seems like this could be a win for Russia.

 

[TomC]

And US can't send aircraft carriers or other forces to the Black Sea without Turkey's approval, which it won't give.

That's something I don't understand.

How did Turkey take over the position of "bully of NATO" from the USA?
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

And US can't send aircraft carriers or other forces to the Black Sea without Turkey's approval, which it won't give.

That's something I don't understand.

How did Turkey take over the position of "bully of NATO" from the USA?
Tom

Geography and an 85-year old treaty.

Would it be feasible to have fighter escorts for the MQ-9? Probably not fuel-wise, unless the fighter(s) get rotated or refueled mid-air.

 

[Copernicus]

And US can't send aircraft carriers or other forces to the Black Sea without Turkey's approval, which it won't give.

That's something I don't understand.

How did Turkey take over the position of "bully of NATO" from the USA?
Tom

This has nothing to do with NATO. Turkey controls the Straits of Dardanelles and the Bosporus. No country can send anything through those straits without Turkey's permission, and that fact was established by international treaty in 1936, before NATO existed. Turkey only lets homeported Russian warships enter the Black Sea. Also, modern aircraft carriers are simply too big to get through the straits.

Here’s Why Navy Aircraft Carriers Can’t Help Ukraine​

 

[bilby]

And US can't send aircraft carriers or other forces to the Black Sea without Turkey's approval, which it won't give.

That's something I don't understand.

How did Turkey take over the position of "bully of NATO" from the USA?
Tom

Geography and an 85-year old treaty.

Would it be feasible to have fighter escorts for the MQ-9? Probably not fuel-wise, unless the fighter(s) get rotated or refueled mid-air.

A fighter escort would rather defeat the purpose of using a drone in the first place.

The benefits of drones would all be compromised by such an escort - long loiter time, low radar and visual profile, low cost, zero risk to crew, etc. etc.

There's nothing that a drone can do in formation with a fighter jet, that the putative crewed aircraft accompanying it couldn't do by itself, so if you were going to send both, you could save money by not sending the drone.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The U.S. is now sending Excaliber M-928 munitions to Ukraine. These have a range of up to 35 miles, and are GPS guided with an accuracy of 4 meter diameters. They can be fired through most NATO 155 mm howitzers. They can be used on high value targets that might take 25 - 50 unguided 155 mm shells to destroy.

 

[Tigers!]

A fighter escort would rather defeat the purpose of using a drone in the first place.

The benefits of drones would all be compromised by such an escort - long loiter time, low radar and visual profile, low cost, zero risk to crew, etc. etc.

There's nothing that a drone can do in formation with a fighter jet, that the putative crewed aircraft accompanying it couldn't do by itself, so if you were going to send both, you could save money by not sending the drone.

Reminds me of the inanity that the Luftwaffe in parts of the battle of Britain. Sending Me-109s to escort Me110s in some battles.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Warlord Kadyrov Resurfaces

Bizarre is the word. It's as if Kadyrov has learned his lesson, had some electrocution therapy to help him remember who the boss is, and is now all about being the perfect pupil.

This is how mafia states operate. Truly bizarre.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russia starts messing with US surveillance drones over Black Sea:

Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea after intercept | CNN Politics

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.

edition.cnn.com

Wonder what this will lead to? Russia is obviously testing US reaction, and seeing if it can get away with it. And it probably can. Also, since the drone made an emergency landing, did the US recover it yet or is it possible that it will end up in Russian hands?

Looks like incompetence, not an attack. They were harassing the drone and made a mistake. Ramming is not normal Air Force tactics. It went down at sea so they probably won't get their hands on it.

 

[TomC]

Turkey only lets homeported Russian warships enter the Black Sea.

Why?

Why does Turkey refuse entrance to NATO members trying to help Ukraine? Why do they permit entry to Russians?

It's not like these people are incapable of ignoring old agreements when it's convenient. C'mon.
Erdogan has too much integrity?
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

Turkey only lets homeported Russian warships enter the Black Sea.

Why?

Why does Turkey refuse entrance to NATO members trying to help Ukraine? Why do they permit entry to Russians?

They don't permit Russian ships either. This is why the loss of Moskva was such a blow; Russia can't just replace it with a similar ship from another fleet.

But you're right, Erdogan could let Americans enter if he really wanted to. He's playing both sides of the fence. "Autocrats stick together."

 

[TomC]

They don't permit Russian ships either.

Oh.
Copernicus was wrong?
OK. I don't post many opinions about the military aspects of this because I don't pretend to understand them.
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

Russia starts messing with US surveillance drones over Black Sea:

Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea after intercept | CNN Politics

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.

edition.cnn.com

Wonder what this will lead to? Russia is obviously testing US reaction, and seeing if it can get away with it. And it probably can. Also, since the drone made an emergency landing, did the US recover it yet or is it possible that it will end up in Russian hands?

Looks like incompetence, not an attack. They were harassing the drone and made a mistake. Ramming is not normal Air Force tactics. It went down at sea so they probably won't get their hands on it.

If the story is right that Russians dumped fuel on the drone, it's hardly just harassment. Clearly they wanted it downed or forced to return to base, but in a way that looks like an accident instead of weapons. Maybe they didn't intend to clip the propeller (there's a big risk there to the plane doing the manouvre), but maybe they did intend to fly past with such speed that it would destabilize the drone.

 

[Jayjay]

They don't permit Russian ships either.

Oh.
Copernicus was wrong?
OK. I don't post many opinions about the military aspects of this because I don't pretend to understand them.
Tom

I think Copernicus is right that this is what the treaty says; but in times of war Turkey can block all ships, and also, maybe Russia simply doesn't have any ships whose home port is in the Black Sea that were not already there.

 

[Jayjay]

And US can't send aircraft carriers or other forces to the Black Sea without Turkey's approval, which it won't give.

That's something I don't understand.

How did Turkey take over the position of "bully of NATO" from the USA?
Tom

Geography and an 85-year old treaty.

Would it be feasible to have fighter escorts for the MQ-9? Probably not fuel-wise, unless the fighter(s) get rotated or refueled mid-air.

A fighter escort would rather defeat the purpose of using a drone in the first place.

The benefits of drones would all be compromised by such an escort - long loiter time, low radar and visual profile, low cost, zero risk to crew, etc. etc.

There's nothing that a drone can do in formation with a fighter jet, that the putative crewed aircraft accompanying it couldn't do by itself, so if you were going to send both, you could save money by not sending the drone.

Stealth is not an issue. The drone was already circling above international waters with a transponder turned on (my dad has made a habit of checking these out on Flight Radar). But other points are valid, and escort would be an overkill. Maybe the fighters could circle a bit farther away and engage if Russian fighters come too close.

The U.S. is now sending Excaliber M-928 munitions to Ukraine. These have a range of up to 35 miles, and are GPS guided with an accuracy of 4 meter diameters. They can be fired through most NATO 155 mm howitzers. They can be used on high value targets that might take 25 - 50 unguided 155 mm shells to destroy.

Ukraine already had these before. But it's about numbers. Ukraine can't beat Russia with just brute force, as Russia even now has about 4-to-1 artillery advantage (and Russia is suffering from shell hunger), but accuracy can compensate for a lot. Not only does it let Ukraine do one hit kills instead of requiring correcting the fire over multiple rounds, guided shells don't lose their accuracy with distance. Ukraine can keep its own artillery pieces farther away from the front line out of reach of counter-battery fire.

 

[TomC]

I think Copernicus is right that this is what the treaty says; but in times of war Turkey can block all ships, and also, maybe Russia simply doesn't have any ships whose home port is in the Black Sea that were not already there.

This still doesn't make sense to me.
Between the EU and NATO, Turkey isn't really in a position to help Russia destroy Ukraine.
Unless we let them. "We" meaning the folks trying to help Ukraine fend off Russian military forces.

This isn't the first time Turkey has tried to do this. I remember Erdogan refusing to allow Sweden into NATO unless Sweden deported some people Erdogan wanted to punish.

Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Turkey only lets homeported Russian warships enter the Black Sea.

Why?

Why does Turkey refuse entrance to NATO members trying to help Ukraine? Why do they permit entry to Russians?

It's not like these people are incapable of ignoring old agreements when it's convenient. C'mon.
Erdogan has too much integrity?
Tom

The rule is ships based in the Black Sea before hostilities started may enter. Others may not.

 

[Copernicus]

I think Copernicus is right that this is what the treaty says; but in times of war Turkey can block all ships, and also, maybe Russia simply doesn't have any ships whose home port is in the Black Sea that were not already there.

This still doesn't make sense to me.
Between the EU and NATO, Turkey isn't really in a position to help Russia destroy Ukraine.
Unless we let them. "We" meaning the folks trying to help Ukraine fend off Russian military forces.

This isn't the first time Turkey has tried to do this. I remember Erdogan refusing to allow Sweden into NATO unless Sweden deported some people Erdogan wanted to punish.

Tom

The US is one of the signatories to the 1936 treaty. The US has no homeported ships at all in the Black Sea. Erodgan is obviously pursuing a policy of gaining maximal advantage for Turkey by playing off both sides in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Turkey is in a position to take advantage of both sides in the war and use its position to leverage concessions from NATO, the EU, Ukraine, and Russia. They essentially control the flow of Ukrainian and Russian grain to the rest of the world. Whether the grain is shipped by Ukraine or stolen from Ukraine and shipped by Russia, Turkey gets their cut of the business.