How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TomC]

He knows that and has taken measures to ensure that it is the former that happens rather than the latter.

Who wants the job of Putin's Food Taster?
Raise your hand!
Tom

 

[bilby]

Even without this warrant hanging over him, Putin needs massive security anywhere he goes.

Unlike other nation's leaders?

I don't recall who said it, but someone once defined "fame" as meaning that someone that you've never met wants to kill you.

Anyone sufficiently famous needs security, and the leaders of major powers need a lot of it. Biden has massive security anywhere he goes, and he doesn't have any outstanding arrest warrants of which I am aware.

 

[Jayjay]

Three months ago:

Why do I think Russia is winning? Mainly because it has artillery superiority. The Ukrainian-reported daily losses of Russian equipment show that Ukraine isn't able to dent the artillery much:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

For the past week, it's 21 artillery pieces. Average of only three per day, and it's been in that ballpark for past months. This is out of estimated 3700 or so that are in Russian arsenal before the war, not counting ones being produced or repaired currently.

This pace is not good enough. For comparison, Ukraine has been given about 350 western 155mm artillery pieces, of which about one third is reported to be out of action; destroyed or under maintenance. I think Ukraine needs to step up its artillery game with more accurate shells (I hear GPS guided Excalibur shells have done a great job, but of course they cost 100 or 1000 times what regular shells do), UAVs, and ways to destroy Russian jamming devices and such, counter-battery radars, and simply having faster turnaround time from observing the enemy to firing at their position. Russians are still better at this.

But now the situation seems much better.

For past several weeks now, Ukraine has reported much higher number of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed. Average from last seven days is 11 per day for example. Now of course the numbers could be exaggerated as always, but I think relative to what it was in December, Ukraine is now getting its shit together. It's a weak signal and only one data point, but maybe after Bakhmut, Ukraine has a shot at stopping Russian advances.

 

[Tigers!]

He knows that and has taken measures to ensure that it is the former that happens rather than the latter.

Who wants the job of Putin's Food Taster?
Raise your hand!
Tom

Putin's glazier is a busy man lately.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Putin is a prisoner. So much of the planet is off limits to him because he is a criminal. He's going to die in jail. He had a sojourn in Crimea and Mariupol I suppose to demonstrate his freedom and to compete with Biden. The man is a dangerous, insecure clown. He's our modern day Hitler.

 

[Elixir]

He’s enjoying a tour of beautiful downtown Mariupol today. A pauper king amid the ruins of his conquest.

 

[Copernicus]

Even without this warrant hanging over him, Putin needs massive security anywhere he goes.

Unlike other nation's leaders?

Unlike most other nation's leaders. The problem is that Putin has very few people that he can trust. There can be other national leaders who are in similarly precarious positions, but Putin's situation is extraordinary. This goes beyond just foreign travel and includes literally anywhere he goes domestically. Even people in his own government stand as potential threats, so he takes extraordinary measures to keep himself distanced. The long tables aren't just about potential infection from COVID.

I don't recall who said it, but someone once defined "fame" as meaning that someone that you've never met wants to kill you.

Anyone sufficiently famous needs security, and the leaders of major powers need a lot of it. Biden has massive security anywhere he goes, and he doesn't have any outstanding arrest warrants of which I am aware.

True, but Biden isn't being guarded from attacks by oligarchs and former friends and partners. I doubt that Prigozhin, "Putin's chef", is going to be serving him any more meals lately, as he had in the past.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine now has JDAM glide bombs.

....
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]The Ukrainian Air Force can now employ Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range precision-guided bombs, [/COLOR]or JDAM-ERs[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)], against Russian forces, says the U.S. Air Force's top officer in Europe. Ukraine's stockpile of these bombs, which can hit targets up to 45 miles away thanks to their pop-out wing kits, is currently relatively small. However, they could already present real problems for Russia's military ....
....

Winged JDAM Smart Bombs Are Now Operational In Ukraine

The U.S. Air Force's top officer in Europe says JDAM-ERs are now in Ukrainian hands, putting whole new Russian target sets at risk.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Three months ago:

Why do I think Russia is winning? Mainly because it has artillery superiority. The Ukrainian-reported daily losses of Russian equipment show that Ukraine isn't able to dent the artillery much:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

For the past week, it's 21 artillery pieces. Average of only three per day, and it's been in that ballpark for past months. This is out of estimated 3700 or so that are in Russian arsenal before the war, not counting ones being produced or repaired currently.

This pace is not good enough. For comparison, Ukraine has been given about 350 western 155mm artillery pieces, of which about one third is reported to be out of action; destroyed or under maintenance. I think Ukraine needs to step up its artillery game with more accurate shells (I hear GPS guided Excalibur shells have done a great job, but of course they cost 100 or 1000 times what regular shells do), UAVs, and ways to destroy Russian jamming devices and such, counter-battery radars, and simply having faster turnaround time from observing the enemy to firing at their position. Russians are still better at this.

But now the situation seems much better.

For past several weeks now, Ukraine has reported much higher number of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed. Average from last seven days is 11 per day for example. Now of course the numbers could be exaggerated as always, but I think relative to what it was in December, Ukraine is now getting its shit together. It's a weak signal and only one data point, but maybe after Bakhmut, Ukraine has a shot at stopping Russian advances.

I don't think it's a matter of Ukraine getting it's shit together, but rather that their targeting of logistics is paying off. Russia's ability to deliver firepower to the front is declining, this makes it easier for Ukraine to operate.

 

[Patooka]

I don't think it's a matter of Ukraine getting it's shit together, but rather that their targeting of logistics is paying off. Russia's ability to deliver firepower to the front is declining, this makes it easier for Ukraine to operate.

The two Laws of Logistics;

1) Everything runs out
2) Everything wears out

Considering how likely it is that most if not all of Russia's artillery hasn't had a barrel change since the start of all this, you couldn't pay me enough to be near those pieces now. It's only a matter of time before they cook off.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

From Reuters: EU to sign agreement to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

From Reuters: EU to sign agreement to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine.

Over what period of time? I doubt there is enough production capacity.

Meanwhile, Xi is visiting Russia. If China starts providing shells too, it'll allow Russia to maintain its artillery advantage.

 

[barbos]

Three months ago:

Why do I think Russia is winning? Mainly because it has artillery superiority. The Ukrainian-reported daily losses of Russian equipment show that Ukraine isn't able to dent the artillery much:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

For the past week, it's 21 artillery pieces. Average of only three per day, and it's been in that ballpark for past months. This is out of estimated 3700 or so that are in Russian arsenal before the war, not counting ones being produced or repaired currently.

This pace is not good enough. For comparison, Ukraine has been given about 350 western 155mm artillery pieces, of which about one third is reported to be out of action; destroyed or under maintenance. I think Ukraine needs to step up its artillery game with more accurate shells (I hear GPS guided Excalibur shells have done a great job, but of course they cost 100 or 1000 times what regular shells do), UAVs, and ways to destroy Russian jamming devices and such, counter-battery radars, and simply having faster turnaround time from observing the enemy to firing at their position. Russians are still better at this.

But now the situation seems much better.

For past several weeks now, Ukraine has reported much higher number of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed. Average from last seven days is 11 per day for example. Now of course the numbers could be exaggerated as always, but I think relative to what it was in December, Ukraine is now getting its shit together. It's a weak signal and only one data point, but maybe after Bakhmut, Ukraine has a shot at stopping Russian advances.

We all know, we can trust reports coming from Ukrainian government.

By the way, remember Arestovich? Bagdad Bob of Kiev?
Well, he is now in Italy apparently and became quite fond of ..... Russia
Weird how things change.

 

[barbos]

From Reuters: EU to sign agreement to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine.

Over what period of time? I doubt there is enough production capacity.

Meanwhile, Xi is visiting Russia. If China starts providing shells too, it'll allow Russia to maintain its artillery advantage.

They said if US sells weapons to breakaway province of China then China would sell weapons to Russia.
You decide.

 

[barbos]

Three months ago:

Why do I think Russia is winning? Mainly because it has artillery superiority. The Ukrainian-reported daily losses of Russian equipment show that Ukraine isn't able to dent the artillery much:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

For the past week, it's 21 artillery pieces. Average of only three per day, and it's been in that ballpark for past months. This is out of estimated 3700 or so that are in Russian arsenal before the war, not counting ones being produced or repaired currently.

This pace is not good enough. For comparison, Ukraine has been given about 350 western 155mm artillery pieces, of which about one third is reported to be out of action; destroyed or under maintenance. I think Ukraine needs to step up its artillery game with more accurate shells (I hear GPS guided Excalibur shells have done a great job, but of course they cost 100 or 1000 times what regular shells do), UAVs, and ways to destroy Russian jamming devices and such, counter-battery radars, and simply having faster turnaround time from observing the enemy to firing at their position. Russians are still better at this.

But now the situation seems much better.

For past several weeks now, Ukraine has reported much higher number of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed. Average from last seven days is 11 per day for example. Now of course the numbers could be exaggerated as always, but I think relative to what it was in December, Ukraine is now getting its shit together. It's a weak signal and only one data point, but maybe after Bakhmut, Ukraine has a shot at stopping Russian advances.

I don't think it's a matter of Ukraine getting it's shit together, but rather that their targeting of logistics is paying off. Russia's ability to deliver firepower to the front is declining, this makes it easier for Ukraine to operate.

But Ukraine won the war a year ago.
...
You people need to get out more, turn off CNN and read some actual news.

 

[barbos]

Putin is a prisoner. So much of the planet is off limits to him because he is a criminal. He's going to die in jail. He had a sojourn in Crimea and Mariupol I suppose to demonstrate his freedom and to compete with Biden. The man is a dangerous, insecure clown. He's our modern day Hitler.

Yeah, right.
Some fucker in some EU court, US vehemntly does not recognize, decided to arrest president of largest nuclear power.
And yes. US threatened to pretty much nuke Netherrands if their "court" arrests any american.

 

[Patooka]

But Ukraine won the war a year ago.

Nope. But Russia definitely lost a year ago.

Finland and Sweden are going to become part of NATO because of what your dear leader did, and now NATO will border Russia for real.
Russia went from being the 2nd largest army in the world to the 2nd largest army in Ukraine.
Europe has found alternatives for its energy - the money from those deals are never coming back
Putin's Collective Security Treaty Organization is now completely defunct
Russia's only victories in the last nine months come from a neo nazi group you feign ignorance about named Wagner - and Bakhmut still holds by the way.

Even if hostilities ceased right this instance, Russia has lost far more than it can ever possibly gain. But I look forward to your usual rants of "Nah uh", "Zombies" and misspelling of Zelensky's name as your idea of a meaningful counter argument.

 

[barbos]

Finland and Sweden are going to become part of NATO because of what your dear leader did, and now NATO will border Russia for real.

No, Ukraine will become part of Russia because of what YOUR dear leader did.
Both Finland and Sweden have been de-facto members of NATO, with the exceptions that they were sane.
Ukraine have been a de-facto member of NATO as well, insane one at that. Now they will be part of Russia.
You lose. And you risk losing Poland as well. Their insane ambassador to France threatened to declare a war on Russia.
Article 5 does not apply in that case and they will quickly lose.

The way it's going so far, by the time Finland gets there, NATO will be gone.

 

[Patooka]

Finland and Sweden are going to become part of NATO because of what your dear leader did, and now NATO will border Russia for real.

No, Ukraine will become part of Russia because of what YOUR dear leader did.
Both Finland and Sweden have been de-facto members of NATO, with the exceptions that they were sane.
Ukraine have been a de-facto member of NATO as well, insane one at that. Now they will be part of Russia.
You lose. And you risk losing Poland as well. Their insane ambassador to France threatened to declare a war on Russia.
Article 5 does not apply in that case and they will quickly lose.

The way it's going so far, by the time Finland gets there, NATO will be gone.

Your military got stopped by 4 trucks last year. You couldn't scare the Hare Krishnas. And Poland was never Australia's to lose. Until you learn what the word sovereignty means, you're going to come off sounding like an ignorant bumpkin.

 

[bilby]

Three months ago:

Why do I think Russia is winning? Mainly because it has artillery superiority. The Ukrainian-reported daily losses of Russian equipment show that Ukraine isn't able to dent the artillery much:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

For the past week, it's 21 artillery pieces. Average of only three per day, and it's been in that ballpark for past months. This is out of estimated 3700 or so that are in Russian arsenal before the war, not counting ones being produced or repaired currently.

This pace is not good enough. For comparison, Ukraine has been given about 350 western 155mm artillery pieces, of which about one third is reported to be out of action; destroyed or under maintenance. I think Ukraine needs to step up its artillery game with more accurate shells (I hear GPS guided Excalibur shells have done a great job, but of course they cost 100 or 1000 times what regular shells do), UAVs, and ways to destroy Russian jamming devices and such, counter-battery radars, and simply having faster turnaround time from observing the enemy to firing at their position. Russians are still better at this.

But now the situation seems much better.

For past several weeks now, Ukraine has reported much higher number of Russian artillery pieces being destroyed. Average from last seven days is 11 per day for example. Now of course the numbers could be exaggerated as always, but I think relative to what it was in December, Ukraine is now getting its shit together. It's a weak signal and only one data point, but maybe after Bakhmut, Ukraine has a shot at stopping Russian advances.

We all know, we can trust reports coming from Ukrainian government.

By the way, remember Arestovich? Bagdad Bob of Kiev?
Well, he is now in Italy apparently and became quite fond of ..... Russia
Weird how things change.

Seriously? You have the cheek to compare someone else to Baghdad Bob??

And here I was thinking that there had to be some depth to which you would not sink. I stand corrected.