Harris will likely win

[GenesisNemesis]

This election alone probably has aged me 10 years.

 

[pood]

Record early voting turnout in Texas, concentrated in blue urban areas. Harris is a handful of points behind there. I realize it’s highly unlikely she could snag Texas, but if she could that’s all she wrote.

 

[BH]

Texas is gradually moving towards blue.

 

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

Your confidence is based on nothing but your own bias. Just more blaming of small, parricular voting blocs for what a massive plurality decided.

Must be nice up there in your ivory tower.
My confidence that Hillary was not the president is based on the reality.

Leftists like the Bernie Bros refused to vote for the woman. And Trump won the EC.

That's what actually happened. And it didn't take a "massive plurality" of voters because simply not voting is a vote. Like it or not, staying home is a vote. And enough voters to change history did vote for Trump. Most by staying home.
Tom

There was a lot that went wrong with the 2016 vote. Hillary made several mistakes. She at least opened up the glass ceiling for more woman to run.

Clinton's remark about deplorables was a tactical error. What everyone seems to be forgetting is the devastating factor of the unethical political intervention of then FBI director Comer, making the email investigation an issue.

 

[starwater]

A campaign that is based on good will has much more momentum than the negative

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A campaign that is based on good will has much more momentum than the negative

To quote a fictional tombstone, We are healthy to the extent that our ideas are humane.

Trump went ugly in this campaign and regained some mojo. Some people get off on ugly. A lot more people than we want to admit. Turnout for Harris will determine the election. She gets Biden's level of turnout, she'll win.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It seems likely to be true that a lot of women, more than usual, including many Republican women, will vote for Harris, without necessarily admitting to it. OTOH, there’s also going to by a misogynist vote among men who would normally vote Democratic, but won’t vote for any woman, as happened to Hillary in 2016. The “Bernie Bros” come to mind.

The "misogyny" is just an excuse I think. Hillary was just a bad candidate, and Bernie Bros were also ticked off about how their candidate was treated in the primaries.

Now, Kamala is a bad candidate too, but not as bad as Hillary. And Trump is a worse candidate than he was in 2016. Still, this race has no business being this close. A better candidate on the Dem side would have ran away with it I think. Shame on Biden for stepping down so late no primary was possible and we got force fed the coconut pill!

It was not that Hillary was bad, it was that she was the victim of years of demonization by the Republicans.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

. The “Bernie Bros” come to mind.

Seriously? There's no basis for that accusation. Less than ten percent of Sanders voters went for Trump and almost none of those had been Democratic voters before.

Does not mean that they voted for Biden. Or Clinton before Biden.

I very much understand why some voters prefer not voting for either major party, either because it's a major party or because of the candidate or because of the platform or for some grievance or another. Unfortunately, I think it's a foolish choice in this race. Or any race involving Trump or Vance who I anticipate Article 25ing Trump quite quickly. Unless they decide to let an assassination attempt succeed--which is the smarter move btw.

Voting third party in an important election is always a bad idea.

 

[starwater]

James Carville has an excellent opinion piece in the NYT today

Opinion | James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win (Published 2024)

Why I’m not sweating this election.

www.nytimes.com

Its behind a paywall

Reason One why Kamala will win:

Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different.

The repugs have been on a losing streak since Cheato took over.

Largest House landslide to Dems 2018

Lost 2020

Repubs lost 2022 because of Dobbs.

 

[steve_bank]

A problem for Harris is the economy.


Biden keeps touting job creation and economists say the economy is strong in that we are not headed for a rrecession or worse.


But the majority of people say the economy is not good for them. Inflation and cost of living is still a problem. Ths has been well covered by the political pundits.

And then the border issue.

I have no choice but to vote for Harris but the problem for me is the programs she is proposing are more of the spendahoilc progressives.

Clinton was a moderate. He supported welfare reform and said welfare was not intended to be lifelong support, and he had a balanced budget.

President Bill Clinton's administration balanced the federal budget for the first time in 27 years by signing the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. This bipartisan agreement led to four consecutive budget surpluses from 1998–2001, the only time this happened from 1970–2023. The surplus in 2000 was the largest annual budget surplus in US history at $236 billion.

Harris is still tlkng about emparthy and humnane treatment ol illegals and not sayng we are goung to close the damn border. That does not play well even with democrats here in prgressive Washington. People are fed up with having to deal with homeless illegals on top of the existing homeless p[rblem

She and Biden are tone deaf on the issue.


I'd say it is a toss up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A problem for Harris is the economy.

Biden keeps touting job creation and economists say the economy is strong in that we are not headed for a rrecession or worse.

But the majority of people say the economy is not good for them. Inflation and cost of living is still a problem. Ths has been well covered by the political pundits.

This is an issue. The GOP have done a great job of convincing people that inflation was all Biden's fault. And the economy is doing good, just not awesome. Meanwhile Europe is struggling with inflation and their economies are weaker. Biden just can't win it seems.

And then the border issue.

I have no choice but to vote for Harris but the problem for me is the programs she is proposing are more of the spendahoilc progressives.

As a reminder, deficits under the GOP have been staggering. At least the Dems try to reinvest in our country. You really don't appreciate how badly the GOP has starved states and how municipalities often can't get anything built without federal funds.

Clinton was a moderate. He supported welfare reform and said welfare was not intended to be lifelong support, and he had a balanced budget.

So was Biden. The annual SS surplus was a big player in that balancing act. We don't have that anymore. That accounting gimmick is dead. Clinton also signed Phil Gramm's "We gonna regret this in about 10 years" deregulation bill that was a big player in the global economic crash in 2008.

Harris is still tlkng about emparthy and humnane treatment ol illegals and not sayng we are goung to close the damn border.
That does not play well even with democrats here in prgressive Washington. People are fed up with having to deal with homeless illegals on top of the existing homeless p[rblem

Lots of people are fed up with all the fake problems that aren't impacting their lives one wit. There is no "open border". There are no "hoards" of illegals. We've had migrants coming across the border for decades. It has been weaponized by the GOP into some sort of monstroity. that it actually isn't.

 

[steve_bank]

I don't think propaganda has a lot to do with it.

For increasing numbers of people cost of living is becoming an issue regardless of who is to blame. Polls show ma voters favor Trump on the economy.

I listened to a report on a small percentage of blacks are switching to Trump, They don't care who Trump is, they are concerned about making money.

From another report while job growth is holding up, but jobs for those 20-30 are becoming harder to find.

Biden did inject large amounts of liquidity into the economy with little controls. His student loan forgiveness program was inflationary. It can be argued Biden added to inflation.

He was printing money and giving it away. He would say he saved the country.

 

[Shadowy Man]

James Carville has an excellent opinion piece in the NYT today

Opinion | James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win (Published 2024)

Why I’m not sweating this election.

www.nytimes.com

Its behind a paywall

Reason One why Kamala will win:

Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different.

The repugs have been on a losing streak since Cheato took over.

Largest House landslide to Dems 2018

Lost 2020

Repubs lost 2022 because of Dobbs.

Does he have any better arguments than this? Sorry, haven’t read the piece yet.

 

[ZiprHead]

I just heard this morning that there have been 19 polls done in Pennsylvania in October. 11 of them were by right wing partisan polling groups, 7 were by non partisan groups, and one from Brazil that no one has ever heard of before.

If the poll aggregators want to maintain their appearances of integrity they need to start calling out these partisan "polls".

 

[Playball40]

My 270 prediction:

View attachment 48231

Did I mention I hate Florida? That is all.

 

[pood]

Harris is still tlkng about emparthy and humnane treatment ol illegals …

A great many of them are refugees, not illegals. We have always taken in refugees.

and not sayng we are goung to close the damn border.

The border is not open.

That does not play well even with democrats here in prgressive Washington. People are fed up with having to deal with homeless illegals on top of the existing homeless p[rblem

She and Biden are tone deaf on the issue.

Democrats and Republicans came up with a bi-partisan approach to policing the border months ago. Trump ordered Republicans to block it, so that he could have a campaign issue, and they did, with even those who initially supported the measure reversing their position.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't think propaganda has a lot to do with it.

For increasing numbers of people cost of living is becoming an issue regardless of who is to blame. Polls show ma voters favor Trump on the economy.

The GOP always gets the trust on the economy. I have no idea why. Nixon fucked it up when he tried to WHIP IT. HW Bush lost in '93 due in part from the Reagan Recession. The economy was awesome under Clinton. W the economy was wobblish and then took a #2 so big, it was a #3. Obama oversaw a recovery, not awesome, but it got better. Trump saw a decent economy, as had Biden, but Biden had to deal with inflation caused primarily by a global pandemic and ultra-low unemployment, but also stimulus spending. Stagflation caused by Nixon, Recession under HW Bush, Great Recession started under W Bush, Recession under Trump. These aren't generally their fault, but why they get trust with economic conditions when the economy has sucked ass from or during their leadership, I can't figure out.

I listened to a report on a small percentage of blacks are switching to Trump, They don't care who Trump is, they are concerned about making money.

They are bigoted and/or misogynistic assholes that like Trump's words on immigrants and what not. Yes, there are likely also well-to-do blacks that'll vote for him for tax cuts.

From another report while job growth is holding up, but jobs for those 20-30 are becoming harder to find.

And what exactly is Biden to do about that? We get to this weird bi-polar GOP who says the Government can't do anything on jobs... and Elect me, I'll create jobs. Trump's plan is deficit spend through the roof (stated) and bring jobs back to the US via tariffs, which will cause inflation and not bring jobs back.

Biden did inject large amounts of liquidity into the economy with little controls. His student loan forgiveness program was inflationary. It can be argued Biden added to inflation.

Yeah, as did Trump's attacks on the Fed to keep rates lower so the economy would be better off in the short-term. Biden has let the Fed do their thing.

He was printing money and giving it away. He would say he saved the country.

Trump gave away trillions to corporations and that didn't help anyone but corporations.

 

[pood]

To be clear: The border is not open.

 

[southernhybrid]

Mr. Sohy and I voted this morning. The line wasn't too long and it moved quickly, thanks to our excellent poll workers. We were to review our ballot at least once and then print it out and put it in the ballot box. I wore my t-shirt that says, "Excuse me, I'm speaking" because I knew most Harris supporters would get the meme, and it didn't have any names on it, so it was permitted. Mr. Sohy told a poll worker on the way out that we're not going back and she gave him a sneaky thumbs up. There were a lot of Black voters and a lot of old white people voting as well. But, some of us old white people are smart enough and informed enough to vote for Harris. Every Harris supporter I know personally is very pleased with her candidacy, but even those who aren't pleased know that this election is too important not to vote for the D ticket. And since we live in a swing state, we know that our vote is extremely important, thanks to the stupid, out dated electoral college.

I think Harris is a good candidate, despite what some of you think. She is smart, experienced and will try to do what's best for the all Americans. Of course, she won't be able to get much done since it's unlikely, the Dems will control the Congress. That is one reason why I don't understand those who make accusations about her, like she's too far left, which she isn't or she's not far left enough. Well, duh! The US isn't a far left country and the president isn't supposed to be a dictator. If you want an evil dictator, you'll vote for Trump or a 3rd party because a vote for a 3rd party candidate is a vote that will probably help Trump in this very important election.

Anyone see Geraldo Rivera last night on "The Beat". He is supporting Harris and he said that Trump is a terrible danger to the country. If somebody like Rivera gets it, why doesn't everyone else?

Btw, the orange menace is campaigning in a small town near my little city today. The schools are closed there and most everything is locked down. It's on the edge of exurban Georgia. He is then going to a more urban part of Gwinnett County that is usually blue, and very diverse with a large immigrant population. I guess he's going to try and get the people he hates to support him. I hope they are smarter than that.

 

[TomC]

To be clear: The border is not open.

Another point is this.
If you want to prevent undocumented workers from getting jobs, start prosecuting the employers who hire them!

If you just don't like brown people, then fuck right off.
Tom