Harris will likely win

[starwater]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

 

[Shadowy Man]

To be clear: The border is not open.

Another point is this.
If you want to prevent undocumented workers from getting jobs, start prosecuting the employers who hire them!

It is astounding that this point is never really talked about. How often do we see prosecution of employers actually happen? It really makes one doubt the sincerity of the argument that illegals taking American jobs is a problem for the economy.

 

[Politesse]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

One word, turn out. Two words! Two words! Or is it turnout? Then it'd be one word. Spellcheck isn't helping me here... wait... is it spellcheck or spell check? Oh gawd, I'm going down the rabbit hole! What was I talking about?!

Oh yeah, turn()out. They need people (who vote for them) to turn out as much as they can. That means every black woman in America, many black men, and around 40% of white people. Look at Georgia. That was black turnout that got Biden the state and two Senate seats. Trump's attempted theft of the election of 2020 betrays the actual miracle of 2020, and that was the Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia! That was black turnout.

So all of this nonsense, it is about turnout... either getting people angry because the Dems are turning all children into the opposite sex, or because Trump tried to fuck our Constitution.

I live in a competitive House District and my State has a competitive Senate race. So I've seen countless ads about transgender operations and Sherrod Brown and how Emilia Sykes is palling around with defund the police people.*

* - claim cited, but not actually cited (no seriously, they cite a source but it isn't a source that supports their claim).

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

Dude, one word, Supreme Court.. Aw fuck!

The Supreme Court is moving the fucking needle, the wrong fucking way. If you think who is on that bench isn't important, then you aren't paying attention at all. It isn't just Dobbs by a long shot.

 

[Politesse]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

One word, turn out. Two words! Two words! Or is it turnout? Then it'd be one word. Spellcheck isn't helping me here... wait... is it spellcheck or spell check? Oh gawd, I'm going down the rabbit hole! What was I talking about?!

Oh yeah, turn()out. They need people (who vote for them) to turn out as much as they can. That means every black woman in America, many black men, and around 40% of white people. Look at Georgia. That was black turnout that got Biden the state and two Senate seats. Trump's attempted theft of the election of 2020 betrays the actual miracle of 2020, and that was the Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia! That was black turnout.

So all of this nonsense, it is about turnout... either getting people angry because the Dems are turning all children into the opposite sex, or because Trump tried to fuck our Constitution.

I live in a competitive House District and my State has a competitive Senate race. So I've seen countless ads about transgender operations and Sherrod Brown and how Emilia Sykes is palling around with defund the police people.*

* - claim cited, but not actually cited (no seriously, they cite a source but it isn't a source that supports their claim).

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

Dude, one word, Supreme Court.. Aw fuck!

The Supreme Court is moving the fucking needle, the wrong fucking way. If you think who is on that bench isn't important, then you aren't paying attention at all. It isn't just Dobbs by a long shot.

I'm not asking whether it's a good thing for Trump to be defeated. I'm asking whether the historically unprecedented nvestment in the Harris campaign has measurably changed the likelihood of that outcome. If it is true that elections can simply be bought with a massive spending spree, why is she polling so poorly in the very states where most of that money has been spent?

 

[pood]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

One word, turn out. Two words! Two words! Or is it turnout? Then it'd be one word. Spellcheck isn't helping me here... wait... is it spellcheck or spell check? Oh gawd, I'm going down the rabbit hole! What was I talking about?!

Oh yeah, turn()out. They need people (who vote for them) to turn out as much as they can. That means every black woman in America, many black men, and around 40% of white people. Look at Georgia. That was black turnout that got Biden the state and two Senate seats. Trump's attempted theft of the election of 2020 betrays the actual miracle of 2020, and that was the Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia! That was black turnout.

So all of this nonsense, it is about turnout... either getting people angry because the Dems are turning all children into the opposite sex, or because Trump tried to fuck our Constitution.

I live in a competitive House District and my State has a competitive Senate race. So I've seen countless ads about transgender operations and Sherrod Brown and how Emilia Sykes is palling around with defund the police people.*

* - claim cited, but not actually cited (no seriously, they cite a source but it isn't a source that supports their claim).

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

Dude, one word, Supreme Court.. Aw fuck!

The Supreme Court is moving the fucking needle, the wrong fucking way. If you think who is on that bench isn't important, then you aren't paying attention at all. It isn't just Dobbs by a long shot.

I'm not asking whether it's a good thing for Trump to be defeated. I'm asking whether the historically unprecedented nvestment in the Harris campaign has measurably changed the likelihood of that outcome. If it is true that elections can simply be bought with a massive spending spree, why is she polling so poorly in the very states where most of that money has been spent?

In what states has she been “polling so poorly, in the very states where most of the money has been spent?” I doubt there are any such states. Specifically, the states where she has been polling poorly, are the very states where most of the money has NOT been spent — the ruby red states. I expect she is pouring a ton of money into the swing states, but if you mean that having a narrow lead, or a tie, or slightly behind Trump in some of those states is “polling poorly,” I’d question your definition, The relevant question, it seems to me, is how much MORE “poorly” she would be polling in those swing states, if she had NOT spent the money?

 

[Politesse]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

One word, turn out. Two words! Two words! Or is it turnout? Then it'd be one word. Spellcheck isn't helping me here... wait... is it spellcheck or spell check? Oh gawd, I'm going down the rabbit hole! What was I talking about?!

Oh yeah, turn()out. They need people (who vote for them) to turn out as much as they can. That means every black woman in America, many black men, and around 40% of white people. Look at Georgia. That was black turnout that got Biden the state and two Senate seats. Trump's attempted theft of the election of 2020 betrays the actual miracle of 2020, and that was the Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia! That was black turnout.

So all of this nonsense, it is about turnout... either getting people angry because the Dems are turning all children into the opposite sex, or because Trump tried to fuck our Constitution.

I live in a competitive House District and my State has a competitive Senate race. So I've seen countless ads about transgender operations and Sherrod Brown and how Emilia Sykes is palling around with defund the police people.*

* - claim cited, but not actually cited (no seriously, they cite a source but it isn't a source that supports their claim).

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

Dude, one word, Supreme Court.. Aw fuck!

The Supreme Court is moving the fucking needle, the wrong fucking way. If you think who is on that bench isn't important, then you aren't paying attention at all. It isn't just Dobbs by a long shot.

I'm not asking whether it's a good thing for Trump to be defeated. I'm asking whether the historically unprecedented nvestment in the Harris campaign has measurably changed the likelihood of that outcome. If it is true that elections can simply be bought with a massive spending spree, why is she polling so poorly in the very states where most of that money has been spent?

In what states has she been “polling so poorly, in the very states where most of the money has been spent?” I doubt there are any such states. Specifically, the states where she has been polling poorly, are the very states where most of the money has NOT been spent — the ruby red states. I expect she is pouring a ton of money into the swing states, but if you mean that having a narrow lead, or a tie, or slightly behind Trump in some of those states is “polling poorly,” I’d question your definition, The relevant question, it seems to me, is how much MORE “poorly” she would be polling in those swing states, if she had NOT spent the money?

If you're running against a psychopath clown rapist, a dead heat is terrible polling.

 

[pood]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

One word, turn out. Two words! Two words! Or is it turnout? Then it'd be one word. Spellcheck isn't helping me here... wait... is it spellcheck or spell check? Oh gawd, I'm going down the rabbit hole! What was I talking about?!

Oh yeah, turn()out. They need people (who vote for them) to turn out as much as they can. That means every black woman in America, many black men, and around 40% of white people. Look at Georgia. That was black turnout that got Biden the state and two Senate seats. Trump's attempted theft of the election of 2020 betrays the actual miracle of 2020, and that was the Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia! That was black turnout.

So all of this nonsense, it is about turnout... either getting people angry because the Dems are turning all children into the opposite sex, or because Trump tried to fuck our Constitution.

I live in a competitive House District and my State has a competitive Senate race. So I've seen countless ads about transgender operations and Sherrod Brown and how Emilia Sykes is palling around with defund the police people.*

* - claim cited, but not actually cited (no seriously, they cite a source but it isn't a source that supports their claim).

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

Dude, one word, Supreme Court.. Aw fuck!

The Supreme Court is moving the fucking needle, the wrong fucking way. If you think who is on that bench isn't important, then you aren't paying attention at all. It isn't just Dobbs by a long shot.

I'm not asking whether it's a good thing for Trump to be defeated. I'm asking whether the historically unprecedented nvestment in the Harris campaign has measurably changed the likelihood of that outcome. If it is true that elections can simply be bought with a massive spending spree, why is she polling so poorly in the very states where most of that money has been spent?

In what states has she been “polling so poorly, in the very states where most of the money has been spent?” I doubt there are any such states. Specifically, the states where she has been polling poorly, are the very states where most of the money has NOT been spent — the ruby red states. I expect she is pouring a ton of money into the swing states, but if you mean that having a narrow lead, or a tie, or slightly behind Trump in some of those states is “polling poorly,” I’d question your definition, The relevant question, it seems to me, is how much MORE “poorly” she would be polling in those swing states, if she had NOT spent the money?

If you're running against a psychopath clown rapist, a dead heat is terrible polling.

OK, so you think she is polling poorly in the swing states, because she should be far ahead. But the question remains, how much more poorly would she be doing, if she had spent little or no money at all in those states?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Next reason from Carville

Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves.

Harris has raised a mind boggling $1 Billion!! Yes billion! Which offsets the money Cheato is getting from tech billionaires.
Greater contact with voters with a barrage of ads - Cheato violated his oath of office, took away Dobbs and is extreme over the top.

Where does all of it go? What a collosal waste of capital, to throw one billion dollars at a tardy presidential campaign just to have it come out as a draw anyway. Did anyone have their mind changed by the postcard mailers that spammed their hallway for a few months?

One word, turn out. Two words! Two words! Or is it turnout? Then it'd be one word. Spellcheck isn't helping me here... wait... is it spellcheck or spell check? Oh gawd, I'm going down the rabbit hole! What was I talking about?!

Oh yeah, turn()out. They need people (who vote for them) to turn out as much as they can. That means every black woman in America, many black men, and around 40% of white people. Look at Georgia. That was black turnout that got Biden the state and two Senate seats. Trump's attempted theft of the election of 2020 betrays the actual miracle of 2020, and that was the Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia! That was black turnout.

So all of this nonsense, it is about turnout... either getting people angry because the Dems are turning all children into the opposite sex, or because Trump tried to fuck our Constitution.

I live in a competitive House District and my State has a competitive Senate race. So I've seen countless ads about transgender operations and Sherrod Brown and how Emilia Sykes is palling around with defund the police people.*

* - claim cited, but not actually cited (no seriously, they cite a source but it isn't a source that supports their claim).

You might say, isn't it worth it to invest one billion dollars at Family Dollar, if it is the only chance at liberating us from the tyranny of Walmart? But that's rather dodging the question of whether Family Dollar was the right challenger at the right time to take down Walmart, if throwing one billion dollars at them doesn't seem to result in moving the needle at all.

Dude, one word, Supreme Court.. Aw fuck!

The Supreme Court is moving the fucking needle, the wrong fucking way. If you think who is on that bench isn't important, then you aren't paying attention at all. It isn't just Dobbs by a long shot.

I'm not asking whether it's a good thing for Trump to be defeated. I'm asking whether the historically unprecedented nvestment in the Harris campaign has measurably changed the likelihood of that outcome.

Indeterminate. I think sometimes campaign ads are like soda ads. I don't think anyone is convinced to get a Coke v Pepsi in ads, it is just reminding you to drink bubbly sugar water. With so much at stake in politics, I don't think they'd risk testing the spending thing. Trump was underspent in 2016, and won, but he isn't a great metric to use based on how little reality seems to impact him.

But on the other hand, they have campaigning down to a social science, and they probably know how many votes each dollar in every district gets per type of ad.

If it is true that elections can simply be bought with a massive spending spree, why is she polling so poorly in the very states where most of that money has been spent?

She isn't polling poorly, but regarding votes, it is turnout and maybe swinging the few swing votes that are out there. The polls provide trends, not absolutes.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I'm not asking whether it's a good thing for Trump to be defeated. I'm asking whether the historically unprecedented nvestment in the Harris campaign has measurably changed the likelihood of that outcome. If it is true that elections can simply be bought with a massive spending spree, why is she polling so poorly in the very states where most of that money has been spent?

In what states has she been “polling so poorly, in the very states where most of the money has been spent?” I doubt there are any such states. Specifically, the states where she has been polling poorly, are the very states where most of the money has NOT been spent — the ruby red states. I expect she is pouring a ton of money into the swing states, but if you mean that having a narrow lead, or a tie, or slightly behind Trump in some of those states is “polling poorly,” I’d question your definition, The relevant question, it seems to me, is how much MORE “poorly” she would be polling in those swing states, if she had NOT spent the money?

If you're running against a psychopath clown rapist, a dead heat is terrible polling.

Or an electorate that is willing to sell its soul for certain legalistic objectives. This fucker won in 2016 because the GOP base said 'fine... as long as we get the justices'. He nearly won in 2020 because the GOP base said 'fine... as long as we continue to get the justices'. In 2024, the GOP said 'fine... as long as we get the justices'. Don't blame Harris for the right-wing having sold it soul to turn back constitutional law to the 19th century.

 

[pood]

Also, it’s one word, “turnout,” because the word is functioning as a noun. If it were functioning as a verb phrase, it would be “turn out.”

 

[Coleman Smith]

have been struck by the relative lack of Trump signs in my area (purplish part of a blue city in a bright red state).

Same here in Eastern Kansas.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Also, it’s one word, “turnout,” because the word is functioning as a noun. If it were functioning as a verb phrase, it would be “turn out.”

Hmm, fuck off. You're right.

 

[pood]

I want people to turn out to vote.

I hope there is a high voter turnout.

 

[scombrid]

A problem for Harris is the economy.


Biden keeps touting job creation and economists say the economy is strong in that we are not headed for a rrecession or worse.


But the majority of people say the economy is not good for them. Inflation and cost of living is still a problem. Ths has been well covered by the political pundits.

And then the border issue.

I have no choice but to vote for Harris but the problem for me is the programs she is proposing are more of the spendahoilc progressives.

Clinton was a moderate. He supported welfare reform and said welfare was not intended to be lifelong support, and he had a balanced budget.

President Bill Clinton's administration balanced the federal budget for the first time in 27 years by signing the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. This bipartisan agreement led to four consecutive budget surpluses from 1998–2001, the only time this happened from 1970–2023. The surplus in 2000 was the largest annual budget surplus in US history at $236 billion.

Harris is still tlkng about emparthy and humnane treatment ol illegals and not sayng we are goung to close the damn border. That does not play well even with democrats here in prgressive Washington. People are fed up with having to deal with homeless illegals on top of the existing homeless p[rblem

She and Biden are tone deaf on the issue.


I'd say it is a toss up.

Homeless illegals? I'm in Florida. The only illegals I see are mowing lawns, installing roofs, and picking crops. Same as its been for the decades I've lived here. All the homeless people I've met are citizens and they have a lot less negative impact on my life than pickpocket above the law white collar criminals. They do a lot less drugs too.

 

[scombrid]

I don't think propaganda has a lot to do with it.

For increasing numbers of people cost of living is becoming an issue regardless of who is to blame. Polls show ma voters favor Trump on the economy.

I listened to a report on a small percentage of blacks are switching to Trump, They don't care who Trump is, they are concerned about making money.

From another report while job growth is holding up, but jobs for those 20-30 are becoming harder to find.

Biden did inject large amounts of liquidity into the economy with little controls. His student loan forgiveness program was inflationary. It can be argued Biden added to inflation.

He was printing money and giving it away. He would say he saved the country.

Only belief of propaganda could convince someone that the Trump economy and the 2017 billionaire tax giveaway were good for us plebes.

 

[pood]

A problem for Harris is the economy.


Biden keeps touting job creation and economists say the economy is strong in that we are not headed for a rrecession or worse.


But the majority of people say the economy is not good for them. Inflation and cost of living is still a problem. Ths has been well covered by the political pundits.

And then the border issue.

I have no choice but to vote for Harris but the problem for me is the programs she is proposing are more of the spendahoilc progressives.

Clinton was a moderate. He supported welfare reform and said welfare was not intended to be lifelong support, and he had a balanced budget.

President Bill Clinton's administration balanced the federal budget for the first time in 27 years by signing the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. This bipartisan agreement led to four consecutive budget surpluses from 1998–2001, the only time this happened from 1970–2023. The surplus in 2000 was the largest annual budget surplus in US history at $236 billion.

Harris is still tlkng about emparthy and humnane treatment ol illegals and not sayng we are goung to close the damn border. That does not play well even with democrats here in prgressive Washington. People are fed up with having to deal with homeless illegals on top of the existing homeless p[rblem

She and Biden are tone deaf on the issue.


I'd say it is a toss up.

Homeless illegals? I'm in Florida. The only illegals I see are mowing lawns, installing roofs, and picking crops. Same as it’s been for the decades I've lived here. All the homeless people I've met are citizens and they have a lot less negative impact on my life than pickpocket above the law white collar criminals. They do a lot less drugs too.

Yes, I live in NYC and vast majority of homeless people are citizens who cannot afford a place to live.

I know some illegals. One of them is brutally exploited as a bar back and porter where the owner often fails to pay his bills and for a long time didn’t even pay salaries to his bartenders, requiring that they subsist on tips, which is totally illegal. The employees eventually sued him and won.

I think Steve has a very skewed picture of what is going on. Including the fact he conflates illegal immigrants and refugees, which are not the same thing.

 

[starwater]

James Carville reason number 3

It’s just a feeling.

"For the last decade Cheato has infected American life with a malignant political sickness."

American democracy dispite its flaws, has always overcome its mistakes. It works. If Liz and Kamala can work together for the Constitution and the Rule of Law, then reasonable people will win.

 

[pood]

James Carville reason number 3

It’s just a feeling.

"For the last decade Cheato has infected American life with a malignant political sickness."

American democracy dispite its flaws, has always overcome its mistakes. It works. If Liz and Kamala can work together for the Constitution and the Rule of Law, then reasonable people will win.

If enough reasonable people vote.

 

[Derec]

took away Dobbs

No, he didn't.