Harris will likely win

[Jimmy Higgins]

There was a lot that went wrong with the 2016 vote. Hillary made several mistakes. She at least opened up the glass ceiling for more woman to run.

And her mistakes cost us immigration freedom and women's reproductive freedom. Etc.

What?! And as to those that voted for George W. Bush (or worse yet, Ralph fucking Nader... I was just out of college and knew voting for Nader was stupid!) in 2000 and 2004?

Harris looks like she learned from Clinton's mistakes.
Yay!
I sincerely hope that she can rescue the US from Teaparty fascism. Maybe.

No, but hopefully, we can keep the blood loss down to acceptable levels.

 

[TomC]

What?!

What Clinton and her campaign staff did.

They managed to lose the POTUS to fukkin Donald Bonespurs Trump!
Tom

 

[Derec]

It seems likely to be true that a lot of women, more than usual, including many Republican women, will vote for Harris, without necessarily admitting to it. OTOH, there’s also going to by a misogynist vote among men who would normally vote Democratic, but won’t vote for any woman, as happened to Hillary in 2016. The “Bernie Bros” come to mind.

The "misogyny" is just an excuse I think. Hillary was just a bad candidate, and Bernie Bros were also ticked off about how their candidate was treated in the primaries.

Now, Kamala is a bad candidate too, but not as bad as Hillary. And Trump is a worse candidate than he was in 2016. Still, this race has no business being this close. A better candidate on the Dem side would have ran away with it I think. Shame on Biden for stepping down so late no primary was possible and we got force fed the coconut pill!

 

[laughing dog]

It seems likely to be true that a lot of women, more than usual, including many Republican women, will vote for Harris, without necessarily admitting to it. OTOH, there’s also going to by a misogynist vote among men who would normally vote Democratic, but won’t vote for any woman, as happened to Hillary in 2016. The “Bernie Bros” come to mind.

The "misogyny" is just an excuse I think. Hillary was just a bad candidate, and Bernie Bros were also ticked off about how their candidate was treated in the primaries.

Misogyny was a factor. Mrs. Clinton had a lot of negatives.

Now, Kamala is a bad candidate too, but not as bad as Hillary. And Trump is a worse candidate than he was in 2016. Still, this race has no business being this close. A better candidate on the Dem side would have ran away with it I think. Shame on Biden for stepping down so late no primary was possible and we got force fed the coconut pill!

You are right - in a rational world this race would not be close. In a rational world, Mr. Trump would have lost to Mrs Clinton. In a rational world, there would have been no movement to dethrone Mr. Biden after a poor showing (that was still better than Mr. Trump's). Clearly we don't live in that rational world.

 

[Derec]

12 percent of Bernie voters went for Trump in 2016.

Nevertheless, all those Bernie Bros who stayed home or voted third party effectively voted for Trump. I'm confident that was more than 10%.

However many it was, you can't just assume that they voted for Trump over Hillary because of "misogyny" as opposed to real disagreements with Hillary as a candidate. Also, Trump was much more of a wildcard back in 2016. I do not think any meaningful number of Bernie Bros will vote for him this time around.
Harris' bigger problem is the Arab/Muslim vote, especially in Michigan.
Trump tops Harris by 2 points among Arab American voters: Survey

Most ridiculous statement is a decidedly white guy referring to himself and his fellow white-bread Lebanese as a "community of color" just because they speak Arabic.

I believe it had a lot to do with the confident predictions of Hillary Clinton victory. Why bother voting for someone who is not your favorite person if you're confident that she'll win regardless?

It is not so much the polls, but the pundits. Polls correctly predicted that Hillary would be ahead of Trump in popular vote and that battleground states would be close. Nate Silver himself predicted ~70% chance of victory for Hillary; more likely than not, but nowhere close to high enough for any degree of confidence, as one out of every 3-4 times you'd get a Trump victory if his analysis was correct. How confident would you be not to roll a ⚀ or ⚁ (1/3 chance) or not get tails twice in a row in a coin toss (1/4 chance)?
Who will win the presidency?
And yet, some lefty commentators got ahead of themselves:
Hillary Clinton will win. But what kind of president will she be?
Done Deal

Obviously, Harris is too smart to make that mistake.

Hopefully. She is certainly not as overconfident as Hillary was in 2016, and neither is the commentariat.

 

[starwater]

"Hopefully. She is certainly not as overconfident as Hillary was in 2016, and neither is the commentariat."

Harris is not overconfident. She repeatedly says she has to win every vote.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

"Hopefully. She is certainly not as overconfident as Hillary was in 2016, and neither is the commentariat."

Harris is not overconfident. She repeatedly says she has to win every vote.

And hasn't made any "deplorables" comment either.

 

[pood]

Personally, I think the biggest winner of this upcoming election won't be Trump or Harris, but the fucking lawyers. There's gonna be so many RVonse-esque challenges to the results I reckon a whole swathe of ambulance chasers have already paid deposits on their new holiday home in anticipation.

I’m not quite so sure of that. Those ambulance chasers will be quite well aware of what happened to one of the biggest ambulance chasers of all, Rudy Giuliani, and especially practically his entire fortune and property holdings being handed over today to the Georgie election workers he defamed. They will also be aware of the staggering sum Faux News was forced to pay to Dominion.

 

[ideologyhunter]

PA is not "safe" by a longshot. From the family chatter, it's more pink than light blue. And that's from the eastern part; the west is Trumpistan except P'Burgh/Allegheny Cty. The Trumpsters there are a lot more fired up about being Trumpsters than Dems are about being Dems, afaics

I once heard Pennsylvania described as "Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other, and a huge chunk of Alabama in the middle."
Tom

Visit lovely Shamokin, PA, and you'll find out that time travel works. Shamokin brings you back to small town life in the Depression -- say, Broken Shovel, Alabama, in 1931. (The peak cultural and culinary establishment in Shamokin is their Dunkin' Donuts, which has major coverage on google...high drama, Shamokin style.) Shamokin is in the middle of burned-out coal country, so of course they're MAGA crazy.

 

[starwater]

I lived in State College for a couple years (really a long time ago ). As a college town it was quite liberal. Go outside the town limits and you needed to know about hunting and gun racks to make any conversation.

 

[Politesse]

One early on branch of my family hails from Morgan Township as was, in what's now Greene Co, PA. I have a copy of a rather interesting letter from a pioneer cousin, complaining that due to scarcity they'd been obliged to send the kids to church without ammunition. And they wonder why we are the way we are!

 

[ideologyhunter]

I lived in State College for a couple years (really a long time ago ). As a college town it was quite liberal. Go outside the town limits and you needed to know about hunting and gun racks to make any conversation.

State College rocks!! I know the town well. Gotta get those subs at CC Peppers. And yeah, leaving SC in any direction might take you to Waddle...Port Matilda...West Decatur...or Potlicker Flats. The old way in always took us through Port Matilda, which we called Port Shit.

 

[pood]

PA is not "safe" by a longshot. From the family chatter, it's more pink than light blue. And that's from the eastern part; the west is Trumpistan except P'Burgh/Allegheny Cty. The Trumpsters there are a lot more fired up about being Trumpsters than Dems are about being Dems, afaics

I once heard Pennsylvania described as "Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other, and a huge chunk of Alabama in the middle."
Tom

Visit lovely Shamokin, PA, and you'll find out that time travel works. Shamokin brings you back to small town life in the Depression -- say, Broken Shovel, Alabama, in 1931. (The peak cultural and culinary establishment in Shamokin is their Dunkin' Donuts, which has major coverage on google...high drama, Shamokin style.) Shamokin is in the middle of burned-out coal country, so of course they're MAGA crazy.

And yet Trump and MAGGOT v. 1 never brought any coal jobs back to any of these places. The decline of coal continued apace. How could they not have noticed that their Orange Jesus broke his promise to them?

 

[Politesse]

PA is not "safe" by a longshot. From the family chatter, it's more pink than light blue. And that's from the eastern part; the west is Trumpistan except P'Burgh/Allegheny Cty. The Trumpsters there are a lot more fired up about being Trumpsters than Dems are about being Dems, afaics

I once heard Pennsylvania described as "Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other, and a huge chunk of Alabama in the middle."
Tom

Visit lovely Shamokin, PA, and you'll find out that time travel works. Shamokin brings you back to small town life in the Depression -- say, Broken Shovel, Alabama, in 1931. (The peak cultural and culinary establishment in Shamokin is their Dunkin' Donuts, which has major coverage on google...high drama, Shamokin style.) Shamokin is in the middle of burned-out coal country, so of course they're MAGA crazy.

And yet Trump and MAGGOT v. 1 never brought any coal jobs back to any of these places. The decline of coal continued apace. How could they not have noticed that their Orange Jesus broke his promise to them?

It's not that they don't notice, it's that they blame other parties for preventing their liberation.

 

[ideologyhunter]

PA is not "safe" by a longshot. From the family chatter, it's more pink than light blue. And that's from the eastern part; the west is Trumpistan except P'Burgh/Allegheny Cty. The Trumpsters there are a lot more fired up about being Trumpsters than Dems are about being Dems, afaics

I once heard Pennsylvania described as "Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other, and a huge chunk of Alabama in the middle."
Tom

Visit lovely Shamokin, PA, and you'll find out that time travel works. Shamokin brings you back to small town life in the Depression -- say, Broken Shovel, Alabama, in 1931. (The peak cultural and culinary establishment in Shamokin is their Dunkin' Donuts, which has major coverage on google...high drama, Shamokin style.) Shamokin is in the middle of burned-out coal country, so of course they're MAGA crazy.

And yet Trump and MAGGOT v. 1 never brought any coal jobs back to any of these places. The decline of coal continued apace. How could they not have noticed that their Orange Jesus broke his promise to them?

It's not that they don't notice, it's that they blame other parties for preventing their liberation.

There's a site where Shamokin residents describe their town, and one of them commented that if you're in Shamokin for one hour and you don't see someone on the street who's clearly drunk or just took a hit of heroin, you're not in Shamokin.

 

[SLD]

Counteracting on the other negative thread. The polls are not correct. Republicans according to Ms. Cheney are publicly saying they are voting red but privately will vote for Harris.

Thanks for trying to cheer me up! I shouldn’t be so negative.

 

[Toni]

. The “Bernie Bros” come to mind.

Seriously? There's no basis for that accusation. Less than ten percent of Sanders voters went for Trump and almost none of those had been Democratic voters before.

Does not mean that they voted for Biden. Or Clinton before Biden.

I very much understand why some voters prefer not voting for either major party, either because it's a major party or because of the candidate or because of the platform or for some grievance or another. Unfortunately, I think it's a foolish choice in this race. Or any race involving Trump or Vance who I anticipate Article 25ing Trump quite quickly. Unless they decide to let an assassination attempt succeed--which is the smarter move btw.

 

[ZiprHead]

PA is not "safe" by a longshot. From the family chatter, it's more pink than light blue. And that's from the eastern part; the west is Trumpistan except P'Burgh/Allegheny Cty. The Trumpsters there are a lot more fired up about being Trumpsters than Dems are about being Dems, afaics

I once heard Pennsylvania described as "Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other, and a huge chunk of Alabama in the middle."
Tom

Pennsyltucky.

 

[Elixir]

Counteracting on the other negative thread. The polls are not correct. Republicans according to Ms. Cheney are publicly saying they are voting red but privately will vote for Harris.

Thanks for trying to cheer me up! I shouldn’t be so negative.

Nor should I.
But I am.
The cliché really seems to be a stubborn truth, that nobody ever went broke from overestimating Americans’ stupidity.

 

[ZiprHead]

The way I see it is Biden beat Trump like a rented mule. Today there is far more excitement and yard signs out for Harris than I saw for Biden.