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Merged Gaza just launched an unprovoked attack on Israel

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Sick. After killing that many people, mostly women and children,
A reality check on this oft repeated canard.

To revisit this issue, I looked at official Gaza fatality numbers supplied by the Hamas health ministry.
Note that Gaza MoH has a vested interest in playing up the "women and children" angle that Elixir is also pushing. But even with their own numbers, a clear picture emerges.

List of identified victims, as published by the Palestinian MoH in Gaza

I downloaded the csv and made a little graph.
gaza fatalities.png
First off, age zero is an odd outlier. Most of those must have been fatalities with unknown age where "0" was entered as a placeholder.
Note that female graph looks like the population pyramid, as one would expect. The male graph shows a big bulge starting with teenage years and going through the 40s, with some gender imbalance persisting well afterwards. That disproportionate fatality rate reflects military age, i.e. Hamas et al terrorists being killed.
I also did some calculations. Adult (≥18) males count for 21338 out of a total of 46948, or ~45%. That is significantly higher (almost twice) than the share of ≥18 males in the population (~25%). And that is not even counting <18 teenagers recruited by Hamas et al. It's also not counting the misclassified "age zero" fatalities.

And again, these are Hamas MoH numbers, so to the extent they are not accurate, any juking of stats would be toward the "women and children", not the other way. Fighter fatalities are most likely undercounted.
 
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Sick. After killing that many people, mostly women and children,
A reality check on this oft repeated canard.

To revisit this issue, I looked at official Gaza fatality numbers supplied by the Hamas health ministry.
Note that Gaza MoH has a vested interest in playing up the "women and children" angle that Elixir is also pushing. But even with their own numbers, a clear picture emerges.

List of identified victims, as published by the Palestinian MoH in Gaza

I downloaded the csv and made a little graph.
View attachment 49562
First off, age zero is an odd outlier. Most of those must have been fatalities with unknown age where "0" was entered as a placeholder.
Note that female graph looks like the population pyramid, as one would expect. The male graph shows a big bulge starting with teenage years and going through the 40s, with some gender imbalance persisting well afterwards. That disproportionate fatality rate reflects military age, i.e. Hamas et al terrorists being killed.
I also did some calculations. Adult (≥18) males count for 21338 out of a total of 46948, or ~45%. That is significantly higher (almost twice) than the share of ≥18 males in the population (~25%). And that is not even counting <18 teenagers recruited by Hamas et al. It's also not counting the misclassified "age zero" fatalities.

And again, these are Hamas MoH numbers, so to the extent they are not accurate, any juking of stats would be toward the "women and children", not the other way. Fighter fatalities are most likely undercounted.
Fatalities of all types are likely to be undercounted because there are bodies in the rubble that are yet to be uncovered. And since not every Hamas employee or member is a fighter, it is likely the true number of fighters will not be known.

Trying to parse out likely percentages from afar runs into the chicken and the egg problem. For example, the fact males 18 years and older account for a disproportionate share of the office MoH count. Does that mean they are fighters or that the IDF targets males 18 years and older or that males in that cohort tend to congregate together?
 
Does that mean they are fighters or that the IDF targets males 18 years and older or that males in that cohort tend to congregate together?
Or, in a patriarchal society, that males tend to be in the streets, or in commercial and light industrial locations, which are targetted (or less protected) than residential blocks? A person killed in the street is less likely to be buried in the rubble.
 
Since derails seem to be unavoidable in the Trump response thread I have merged the two.

May god have mercy on your souls. 🤑🤑🤑
 
Most people just want Israel to stop killing Palestinian civilians. This is absolutely a strawman argument.
Unfortunately, the GWM do not want that.
Or it would end, peacefully. But we all know that isn't going to happen. Because Hamas still has a couple million human shields to use.
Tom
It would end peacefully if the IWM (ZWM?) got onboard with Israel being a "multiethnic democracy offering peace and prosperity" and allowed the former residents to return and stopped displacing even more people.

The Return can happen slowly and in stages, so there's no reason to panic.
Will the Return include the Jews who has to leave their countries in the 1940s and 50s?

Are you asking if Jews should be allowed to return to the countries they left in the 1940s and 1950s, or if they should be allowed to emigrate to Israel? Or do you mean, would they be allowed to "Return" to a place where they never lived and their families haven't been for at least 400 years, and displace the indigenous Palestinians from families that have been living there all this time, because of a religious belief that a god gave the land to their ancestors back in the Bronze Age?
These are the Jews to which I refer Jews forced out of Arab countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_the_Muslim_world
I think anyone whose family was forcibly displaced should be allowed to live where their families used to live if that's where they want to be, and compensated for their losses by the government that wronged them. If a religious or ethnic community was targeted for expulsion, the State or governing body that did it is responsible for their suffering, not some State of some other people living elsewhere. For example, the American citizens of Japanese ancestry who were forced into "relocation centers", should have their property restored and/or receive just and fair compensation for the loss and the hardships they were forced to endure. Canada and Mexico don't owe them a thing, because Canada and Mexico didn't force them into Manzanar, Minidoka, or any of the other internment camps.

If the family left in pursuit of opportunity elsewhere or to retain something they valued, like Algerian Jews who wanted to retain their French citizenship when Algeria was about to become an independent nation, they might be given extra consideration on their applications to return to where their grandparents used to live, but I don't think that should be an automatic granting of permission.

There is a tremendous difference between choosing to live elsewhere and being forced out at gunpoint.
Agreed but it seems the right of return only applies to Palestinians, not Jews, nor other people.

There are millions upon millions of people who were forced to leave their homes since the start of the 20th C. (just to put a stake in the ground)
After WW1 there were many who were forced to move as new countries were formed and they were on the wrong size of the new borders
Millions changed home after the partition of British india into Pakistan and India.
Millions fled China after Mao became ruler.
Thousands fled Cuba after Castro took power.
Koreans headed north or south during and after the Korean war
Same as in Vietman
Hundreds of thousands of Greeks has to leave Asis Minor/ turkey after Ataturk became ruler of Turkey and teh end of the Greek-Turko war. They had been living there since before the Trojan War.
Millions had to move after the end of WW2.
And on it goes.
And of course the waves of Jews leaving Europe since the 1890s.

None of these are given the right of return. They are told 'Bad luck'.
The Palestinians seem to be special. Why is that?
First, you conflate forced migration with voluntary migration in some cases. 2nd, bringing examples where the displaced peoples are dozens of generations removed is ridiculous.
Which of the ones I mention were voluntary? All of them occured during or straight after war/fighting. Persecution or threats of violence for being on the wrong 'side', wrong langauge, wrong skin clolour etc. I deliberately started at the 1890s. Hardly the claim of dozens of generations removed as you claim.

Why does these groups not get mentioned in the UN for a right to return? Why only the Palestinians get UN resolutions?
More importantly, please point to a large group, who as a group, wish to return and want a right to return.
Cubans back to Cuba?
BTW, Jews have the right to return to Israel.
Do the Jews who lived in arab lands for dozens of generations and these are their ancestral lands? Do they have a right to return to those lands they left (forcibly) in the 1940s & 50s?
 
Most people just want Israel to stop killing Palestinian civilians. This is absolutely a strawman argument.
Unfortunately, the GWM do not want that.
Or it would end, peacefully. But we all know that isn't going to happen. Because Hamas still has a couple million human shields to use.
Tom
It would end peacefully if the IWM (ZWM?) got onboard with Israel being a "multiethnic democracy offering peace and prosperity" and allowed the former residents to return and stopped displacing even more people.

The Return can happen slowly and in stages, so there's no reason to panic.
Will the Return include the Jews who has to leave their countries in the 1940s and 50s?

Are you asking if Jews should be allowed to return to the countries they left in the 1940s and 1950s, or if they should be allowed to emigrate to Israel? Or do you mean, would they be allowed to "Return" to a place where they never lived and their families haven't been for at least 400 years, and displace the indigenous Palestinians from families that have been living there all this time, because of a religious belief that a god gave the land to their ancestors back in the Bronze Age?
These are the Jews to which I refer Jews forced out of Arab countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_the_Muslim_world
I think anyone whose family was forcibly displaced should be allowed to live where their families used to live if that's where they want to be, and compensated for their losses by the government that wronged them. If a religious or ethnic community was targeted for expulsion, the State or governing body that did it is responsible for their suffering, not some State of some other people living elsewhere. For example, the American citizens of Japanese ancestry who were forced into "relocation centers", should have their property restored and/or receive just and fair compensation for the loss and the hardships they were forced to endure. Canada and Mexico don't owe them a thing, because Canada and Mexico didn't force them into Manzanar, Minidoka, or any of the other internment camps.

If the family left in pursuit of opportunity elsewhere or to retain something they valued, like Algerian Jews who wanted to retain their French citizenship when Algeria was about to become an independent nation, they might be given extra consideration on their applications to return to where their grandparents used to live, but I don't think that should be an automatic granting of permission.

There is a tremendous difference between choosing to live elsewhere and being forced out at gunpoint.
Agreed but it seems the right of return only applies to Palestinians, not Jews, nor other people.

There are millions upon millions of people who were forced to leave their homes since the start of the 20th C. (just to put a stake in the ground)
After WW1 there were many who were forced to move as new countries were formed and they were on the wrong size of the new borders
Millions changed home after the partition of British india into Pakistan and India.
Millions fled China after Mao became ruler.
Thousands fled Cuba after Castro took power.
Koreans headed north or south during and after the Korean war
Same as in Vietman
Hundreds of thousands of Greeks has to leave Asis Minor/ turkey after Ataturk became ruler of Turkey and teh end of the Greek-Turko war. They had been living there since before the Trojan War.
Millions had to move after the end of WW2.
And on it goes.
And of course the waves of Jews leaving Europe since the 1890s.

None of these are given the right of return. They are told 'Bad luck'.
The Palestinians seem to be special. Why is that?
First, you conflate forced migration with voluntary migration in some cases. 2nd, bringing examples where the displaced peoples are dozens of generations removed is ridiculous.
Which of the ones I mention were voluntary?

You haven't provided enough information regarding the movements of people following WWI to even guess who you're talking about. Do you mean Hungarians whose villages were assigned to the Romanian side of the new border? They weren't driven out. There are still Hungarians living in Romania and vice versa. Do you mean French citizens whose homes and livelihoods were destroyed? There are still parts of Zone Rouge that are off limits to human habitation due to environmental damage and unexploded ordinance; what drove those citizens out wasn't the deliberate targeting of them due to their religion or ethnicity.

Historical context matters. The majority of Cubans who migrated to the US after Castro came to power did so willingly. The majority of Cambodians who fled the Khmer Rouge takeover of their country were in fear for their lives. Jews who fled persecution in mid-20th century Nazi-controlled States were refugees. Jews who left Minnesota in the mid-1980s so they could live and work in Israel were not.

The UNHCR defines refugees as people forced to flee their own country and seek safety in another country. They are unable to return to their own country because of feared persecution as a result of who they are, what they believe in or say, or because of armed conflict, violence or serious public disorder. You can go through your list and sort out the refugees from the migrants if you want to discuss them.


Why does these groups not get mentioned in the UN for a right to return? Why only the Palestinians get UN resolutions?
More importantly, please point to a large group, who as a group, wish to return and want a right to return.
Cubans back to Cuba?
BTW, Jews have the right to return to Israel.
Do the Jews who lived in arab lands for dozens of generations and these are their ancestral lands? Do they have a right to return to those lands they left (forcibly) in the 1940s & 50s?
The Right of Return that Zionist claim exists is a religious declaration. It is exclusive to members of that faith group. It is an example of religious belief and bias.

The Right of refugees to return to the places they were forced out of is a human right recognized in international law. It is not exclusive. It is something every refugee has regardless of their religion, race, ethnicity, etc.

BTW, Palestinian Jews were living in Palestine long before the Zionist movement got started in Europe. The Rights of Refugees do not apply to the ones who never moved because they're not refugees. The Rights of Indigenous Peoples do apply because they are part of the indigenous population in Palestine, along with Palestinian Christians, Palestinian Muslims, Palestinian Druze, Palestinian Yazidis, and Palestinians of other faiths and closely related family/tribal groups.
 
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Most people just want Israel to stop killing Palestinian civilians. This is absolutely a strawman argument.
Unfortunately, the GWM do not want that.
Or it would end, peacefully. But we all know that isn't going to happen. Because Hamas still has a couple million human shields to use.
Tom
It would end peacefully if the IWM (ZWM?) got onboard with Israel being a "multiethnic democracy offering peace and prosperity" and allowed the former residents to return and stopped displacing even more people.

The Return can happen slowly and in stages, so there's no reason to panic.
Will the Return include the Jews who has to leave their countries in the 1940s and 50s?

Are you asking if Jews should be allowed to return to the countries they left in the 1940s and 1950s, or if they should be allowed to emigrate to Israel? Or do you mean, would they be allowed to "Return" to a place where they never lived and their families haven't been for at least 400 years, and displace the indigenous Palestinians from families that have been living there all this time, because of a religious belief that a god gave the land to their ancestors back in the Bronze Age?
These are the Jews to which I refer Jews forced out of Arab countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_the_Muslim_world
I think anyone whose family was forcibly displaced should be allowed to live where their families used to live if that's where they want to be, and compensated for their losses by the government that wronged them. If a religious or ethnic community was targeted for expulsion, the State or governing body that did it is responsible for their suffering, not some State of some other people living elsewhere. For example, the American citizens of Japanese ancestry who were forced into "relocation centers", should have their property restored and/or receive just and fair compensation for the loss and the hardships they were forced to endure. Canada and Mexico don't owe them a thing, because Canada and Mexico didn't force them into Manzanar, Minidoka, or any of the other internment camps.

If the family left in pursuit of opportunity elsewhere or to retain something they valued, like Algerian Jews who wanted to retain their French citizenship when Algeria was about to become an independent nation, they might be given extra consideration on their applications to return to where their grandparents used to live, but I don't think that should be an automatic granting of permission.

There is a tremendous difference between choosing to live elsewhere and being forced out at gunpoint.
Agreed but it seems the right of return only applies to Palestinians, not Jews, nor other people.

There are millions upon millions of people who were forced to leave their homes since the start of the 20th C. (just to put a stake in the ground)
After WW1 there were many who were forced to move as new countries were formed and they were on the wrong size of the new borders
Millions changed home after the partition of British india into Pakistan and India.
Millions fled China after Mao became ruler.
Thousands fled Cuba after Castro took power.
Koreans headed north or south during and after the Korean war
Same as in Vietman
Hundreds of thousands of Greeks has to leave Asis Minor/ turkey after Ataturk became ruler of Turkey and teh end of the Greek-Turko war. They had been living there since before the Trojan War.
Millions had to move after the end of WW2.
And on it goes.
And of course the waves of Jews leaving Europe since the 1890s.

None of these are given the right of return. They are told 'Bad luck'.
The Palestinians seem to be special. Why is that?
First, you conflate forced migration with voluntary migration in some cases. 2nd, bringing examples where the displaced peoples are dozens of generations removed is ridiculous.
Which of the ones I mention were voluntary? All of them occured during or straight after war/fighting. Persecution or threats of violence for being on the wrong 'side', wrong langauge, wrong skin clolour etc. I deliberately started at the 1890s. Hardly the claim of dozens of generations removed as you claim.
Arctish eloguently answered your questions. Moreover, many of those displaced peoples (whether voluntariy or involuntary migrants) are not barred from returning to their homelands. And, you have yet to point any group that wants or asked for such a right.
Why does these groups not get mentioned in the UN for a right to return? Why only the Palestinians get UN resolutions?
More importantly, please point to a large group, who as a group, wish to return and want a right to return.
Cubans back to Cuba?
A question is a response to a question, not an answer. I take it you cannot point to an actual group of people who wish to return and want a right to return. BTW, Cubans in the US can return to Cuba, but they do not wish to return under its current form of government.
BTW, Jews have the right to return to Israel.
Do the Jews who lived in arab lands for dozens of generations and these are their ancestral lands? Do they have a right to return to those lands they left (forcibly) in the 1940s & 50s?
I don't know. Do you have any actual evidence that they wish to return? Or that they are barred from returning?

More importantly, from your questions, it seems to me that you think a right of return should be available to everybody. If that is the case, it seems to me that your questions are misdirected.
 
The land is as much ancestral for Palestinians as Jews. That seems to escape American sensibilities.

Israel wants all of it and it looks like they will get it. Only the USA could have prevented it.
 
The land is as much ancestral for Palestinians as Jews.
So why can't they just share it?

Oh, yeah. Religion.

Shit.
That's really not true. What's going on here is a clash of cultures. Although Abrahamic religion does seriously exacerbate some of the worst features of humanity, like cultural supremacy and murderous tribalism.
Tom
 
The land is as much ancestral for Palestinians as Jews.
So why can't they just share it?

Oh, yeah. Religion.

Shit.
That's really not true. What's going on here is a clash of cultures. Although Abrahamic religion does seriously exacerbate some of the worst features of humanity, like cultural supremacy and murderous tribalism.
Tom
Do you mean European culture vs. Middle Eastern culture, or are you talking about something else?
 
I have heard it from Netanyahu on camera, Jews have a right to the land because god gave it to them. That is Zionism.

Netanyahu is a Jewish version of our own Christian biblical literalists.

As with Muslims and a global Caliphate I believe there was a Jewish issue as to whether Jews owed allegiance to a future Jewish state or to the country they lived in.

Part of the problem IO is to be Jewish is a mix of religion and race. There are conversations, but wheher oiu are Jewish or not is determined by the matriarchal blood line.

Muslims and Christians do not have that restriction. Being Jewish is an exclusive club. While I certainly do not support violence or discrimination against Jews, their culture is inherently discriminatory.

It is a fair question to ask if their couture was a factor in hindering assimilation throughout history,.

In Judaism, the matrilineal principle states that Jewishness is passed down through the mother. This means that a person is Jewish if their mother is Jewish.
 
The land is as much ancestral for Palestinians as Jews.
So why can't they just share it?

Oh, yeah. Religion.

Shit.
That's really not true. What's going on here is a clash of cultures. Although Abrahamic religion does seriously exacerbate some of the worst features of humanity, like cultural supremacy and murderous tribalism.
Tom
Do you mean European culture vs. Middle Eastern culture, or are you talking about something else?
Here's what I am talking about.

Israel is the result of the vicious anti-Jewish bigotry the Abrahamic world is full of, especially Europe. As traveling became more feasible, in the 19th century, Jews started fleeing the ugliness. They went to a back water province of the Ottoman empire, which was tottering towards the collapse that came shortly after. The trickle became a stream as the Zionists started building things that made the place habitable. Then came the paroxysms of the 30s and 40s. There were enough Jewish people to demand, and get, recognition of a state where Jews weren't in such danger from their immediate neighbors and government.
Zionists were not a representative sample of all Jews. They and their progeny are the most hard core "We're not going to take it anymore." Jews. The ones most willing to fight and die for the only sanctuary on earth for their people.

When their Muslim neighbors tried to use massive military force to destroy them, they not only survived but took control of much more territory. Then they refused to allow many of the attackers to return. Frankly, I don't think that's unreasonable. Not in light of the many assaults since, from foreign military forces to suicide bombers to the October '23 terrorist assault. Until their Muslim neighbors give up on Islamic supremacy in favor of peace and prosperity it's gonna stay ugly.
Tom
 
The land is as much ancestral for Palestinians as Jews.
So why can't they just share it?

Oh, yeah. Religion.

Shit.
That's really not true. What's going on here is a clash of cultures. Although Abrahamic religion does seriously exacerbate some of the worst features of humanity, like cultural supremacy and murderous tribalism.
Tom
Do you mean European culture vs. Middle Eastern culture, or are you talking about something else?
Here's what I am talking about.

Israel is the result of the vicious anti-Jewish bigotry the Abrahamic world is full of, especially Europe. As traveling became more feasible, in the 19th century, Jews started fleeing the ugliness. They went to a back water province of the Ottoman empire, which was tottering towards the collapse that came shortly after. The trickle became a stream as the Zionists started building things that made the place habitable. Then came the paroxysms of the 30s and 40s. There were enough Jewish people to demand, and get, recognition of a state where Jews weren't in such danger from their immediate neighbors and government.
Zionists were not a representative sample of all Jews. They and their progeny are the most hard core "We're not going to take it anymore." Jews. The ones most willing to fight and die for the only sanctuary on earth for their people.

When their Muslim neighbors tried to use massive military force to destroy them, they not only survived but took control of much more territory. Then they refused to allow many of the attackers to return. Frankly, I don't think that's unreasonable. Not in light of the many assaults since, from foreign military forces to suicide bombers to the October '23 terrorist assault. Until their Muslim neighbors give up on Islamic supremacy in favor of peace and prosperity it's gonna stay ugly.
Tom
Given there are plenty of Zionists who are unwilling to give up on Jewish supremacy in greater Israel in favor of peace and prosperity for all, it will stay ugly even if their Muslim neighbors do give up their dream of Islamic supremacy. Why? Because religious cultists of any stripe are intransigent nuts.
 
Fatalities of all types are likely to be undercounted because there are bodies in the rubble that are yet to be uncovered.
Also bodies in the Hamas tunnels. However, I do not see any reason to believe that that would significantly affect the trends shown in my graph.
And since not every Hamas employee or member is a fighter, it is likely the true number of fighters will not be known.
Of course not. Many fighters for Hamas, Islamic Jihad etc. also have "day jobs". They may work for a Hamas ministry in some job but also fight for the Qassam Brigades. They may fight for al-Quds brigades, but also have a job as "journalist" with an organ of the Islamic Jihad, or at least an outlet friendly to them.
But, as you say, we will not know the exact number of terrorist fighters killed. That's why analysis of demographic structure of the fatalities is so important. Military-age males are strongly overrepresented among the fatalities.
Trying to parse out likely percentages from afar runs into the chicken and the egg problem.
That is no problem. Proper eggs (with a protective shell that may be laid on land) evolved with first amniotes, which appeared many millions of years before dinosaurs (and of course, chickens are a part of the dinosaur clade).
465800450_8816808815045815_2715522804706705001_n.jpg



For example, the fact males 18 years and older account for a disproportionate share of the office MoH count. Does that mean they are fighters or that the IDF targets males 18 years and older or that males in that cohort tend to congregate together?
Men tend to congregate together. So do women. That would not explain the disparity.
On the other hand, if IDF targets fighters, military age men would account for the heavily disproportionate share of the dead being military age males.

Given that we will never get a definitive count of militant vs. civilian fatalities (and other casualties as well) we have to do indirect analyses. '
"Parsing out likely percentages from afar" is what I could do with the data I found. Do you have access to better data? Do you have plans to to to Gaza and parse things out from nearby? If not, why criticize me for working with what we have access to?
 
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Or, in a patriarchal society, that males tend to be in the streets, or in commercial and light industrial locations, which are targeted (or less protected) than residential blocks?
Gaza is a patriarchal society, but it is not Afghanistan. Women and girls do go out in the street. Maybe somewhat leess than men and boys are out, but I do not think it is nearly enough to explain the size of the effect. For example, among those 15-45 years old, male:female ratio is ~2.4. Excess male deaths in that age cohort are 10,417.

A person killed in the street is less likely to be buried in the rubble.
Your hypothesis would predict that those pulled out of the rubble would be predominately women. Do you have any evidence backing up that prediction?

I think my hypothesis is more reasonable. If IDF is targeting terror fighters, then we will see disproportionate share of fatalities be military age males. And lo and behold, we do.
 
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Fatalities of all types are likely to be undercounted because there are bodies in the rubble that are yet to be uncovered.
Also bodies in the Hamas tunnels. However, I do not see any reason to believe that that would significantly affect the trends shown in my graph.
And since not every Hamas employee or member is a fighter, it is likely the true number of fighters will not be known.
Of course not. Many fighters for Hamas, Islamic Jihad etc. also have "day jobs". They may work for a Hamas ministry in some job but also fight for the Qassam Brigades. They may fight for al-Quds brigades, but also have a job as "journalist" with an organ of the Islamic Jihad, or at least an outlet friendly to them.
But, as you say, we will not know the exact number of terrorist fighters killed. That's why analysis of demographic structure of the fatalities is so important. Military-age males are strongly overrepresented among the fatalities.
Trying to parse out likely percentages from afar runs into the chicken and the egg problem.
That is no problem. Proper eggs (with a protective shell that may be laid on land) evolved with first amniotes, which appeared many millions of years before dinosaurs (and of course, chickens are a part of the dinosaur clade).
465800450_8816808815045815_2715522804706705001_n.jpg



For example, the fact males 18 years and older account for a disproportionate share of the office MoH count. Does that mean they are fighters or that the IDF targets males 18 years and older or that males in that cohort tend to congregate together?
Men tend to congregate together. So do women. That would not explain the disparity.
On the other hand, if IDF targets fighters, military age men would account for the heavily disproportionate share of the dead being military age males.

Given that we will never get a definitive count of militant vs. civilian fatalities (and other casualties as well) we have to do indirect analyses. '
"Parsing out likely percentages from afar" is what I could do with the data I found. Do you have access to better data? Do you have plans to to to Gaza and parse things out from nearby? If not, why criticize me for working with what we have access to?
My point was and remains that your estimates are likely to be unreliable for a variety of measurement issues.

If you take that as a criticism, that’s not my problem
 
The land is as much ancestral for Palestinians as Jews.
So why can't they just share it?

Oh, yeah. Religion.

Shit.
That's really not true. What's going on here is a clash of cultures. Although Abrahamic religion does seriously exacerbate some of the worst features of humanity, like cultural supremacy and murderous tribalism.
Tom
Do you mean European culture vs. Middle Eastern culture, or are you talking about something else?
Here's what I am talking about.

Israel is the result of the vicious anti-Jewish bigotry the Abrahamic world is full of, especially Europe.
You have not demonstrated that vicious anti-Jewish bigotry existed in the Middle East before the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The only examples of vicious anti-Jewish bigotry I have found in the 4 centuries following the Ottoman conquest were the two times rebels briefly gained control and persecuted Jews who they saw as staunch allies of the Turks. And even then, Muslim neighbors sheltered Jews from the rampaging Druze.

The vicious bigotry Jews experienced in Europe was not universal. I think we tend to think that way because most of us were only taught European history and the history of European offshoots like the USA, Australia, etc.

I don't know what parts of history kids these days learn but when I was in school, if it didn't involve white people it didn't get mentioned. So we were taught that Romans conquered the area around Jerusalem, then later on Crusaders fought the Saracens for control of the 'Holy City', and then more recently the British were in charge before Israel was founded. We learned nothing about the interactions between the various faith communities when Europeans were out of the picture.

As traveling became more feasible, in the 19th century, Jews started fleeing the ugliness. They went to a back water province of the Ottoman empire, which was tottering towards the collapse that came shortly after. The trickle became a stream as the Zionists started building things that made the place habitable.
The place was already habitable. We know this because it has been inhabited for thousands of years. Cities like Jerusalem have been continuously inhabited by the indigenous Canaanite/Palestinian population for 4-6 thousand years. Nablus and Jericho have been inhabited for ~9,000 years.

Zionists from Europe started building things using technology that wasn't widely available in the region, but they weren't the first to build roads, irrigation systems, libraries, or to develop profitable trade exchanges. People in the region weren't ignorant, starving beggars relying on handouts from benevolent Europeans arriving to tame the wilderness and educate the savages. They had their own well functioning society long before the First Aliyah.


Then came the paroxysms of the 30s and 40s. There were enough Jewish people to demand, and get, recognition of a state where Jews weren't in such danger from their immediate neighbors and government.
Zionists were not a representative sample of all Jews. They and their progeny are the most hard core "We're not going to take it anymore." Jews. The ones most willing to fight and die for the only sanctuary on earth for their people.

^This is the Euro-centric view. It is not one that was shared by the Palestinian Jews.

Jews from Europe had been subjected to oppression that grew into something truly monstrous in the 1930s and 1940s. It is perfectly understandable that they wanted security in a State dedicated to their welfare. It is perfectly understandable that they wanted that State to include Jerusalem and the surrounding area. It is also perfectly understandable that they held the European view of colonialism and saw little wrong with using their superior wealth and armaments to take that land by force and drive out the natives.

Palestinian Jews did not suffer from the same oppression as the Europeans. The ones descended from people who never left the region and the ones descended from Sephardic Jews rescued by the Turks were pretty content with their lives until the Ottoman Empire fell and the riots and terrorism broke out. The Ottoman millet system gave them a lot of autonomy and social cohesion. They weren't any more oppressed than their neighbors.

If you want to talk about the cultural factors fueling the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis you have to give serious consideration to what life was like for people living there before the 20th century.

I haven't looked much into this website so you can take this article with a grain of salt, but I think it's worth reading: How Peace Flourished in Ottoman Palestine: a story of coexistence
When their Muslim neighbors tried to use massive military force to destroy them, they not only survived but took control of much more territory. Then they refused to allow many of the attackers to return.
The Palestinians did not attack Israel. The Zionists attacked the Palestinians, murdered thousands, and drove approximately 750,000 survivors into refugee camps, all according to plan.

The surrounding countries responded to the ethnic cleansing and massacres of civilians by attacking the terrorist regime that had announced itself to be the new rulers of a new State. Don't even try to argue that the Irgun, Lehi, and Haganah don't fit the definition of terrorists. You know I have links to articles written by Israeli historians that more than adequately justify the use of that term.

Frankly, I don't think that's unreasonable. Not in light of the many assaults since, from foreign military forces to suicide bombers to the October '23 terrorist assault. Until their Muslim neighbors give up on Islamic supremacy in favor of peace and prosperity it's gonna stay ugly.
Tom
It's gonna stay ugly until opportunities for peace and prosperity are shared, human rights are upheld, and religious affiliation does not determine how one is treated by the government that controls their lives and their livelihoods.
 
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So, there is an Egyptian/Arab plan for Gaza reconstruction, advanced as an alternative to Trump's "Gaza Riviera" plan.

Al Jazeera has a breakdown of what it entails.
What is Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza?

Al Jazeera said:
The plan calls for a group of “independent Palestinian technocrats” to manage affairs in Gaza, in effect replacing Hamas.
Hamas would be happy to forego the drudgery of actually governing. The problem is that they have repeatedly stated that they are not willing to give up their arms or their goal to attack Israel. That makes reconstruction difficult. Why invest billions only for Hamas to start another war?
Egypt is calling for $53bn to fund the reconstruction of Gaza, with the money distributed over three phases.
In the first six-month phase it would cost $3bn to clear rubble from Salah al-Din Street, construct temporary housing and restore partially damaged homes.
$53G is a lot of money. As I said, it will be difficult to justify that level of investment if Hamas still exists as an armed force, whether or not they have a role in day to day governance of the Strip.
But it makes sense to focus on fixing those buildings that are repairable and have temporary, mobile housing for the rest of the population.
There is estimated to be about 50 Mt of rubble across Gaza Strip. This is probably why The Plan specifies the main thoroughfare rather than more comprehensive rubble clearance within the first six months.
Other challenges for rubble cleanup:
  • since the ceasefire, hundreds of thousands of people have moved back to their neighborhoods and are camping amidst the rubble or have moved into half-destroyed buildings that will likely have to be torn down. They will have to be moved before those areas can be cleared.
  • toxic materials like asbestos must be handled and disposed of responsibly lest the cleanup does more damage by spreading them further as dust particles
  • unexploded ordinance will pose a danger the crews doing the clearing
  • there are likely thousands of human remains among the rubble which will have to be removed, identified and buried

So the whole process will take years. Moving on.
The second phase would take two years and cost $20bn. The work of rubble removal would continue in this phase, as well as the establishment of utility networks and the building of more housing units.
Not to mention rebuilding roads. And fixing bomb craters. Not sure how all this can be done in two years.
Phase three would cost $30bn and take two and a half years. It would include completing housing for Gaza’s whole population, establishing the first phase of an industrial zone, building fishing and commercial ports, and building an airport, among other services.
So all three phases are five years. That's to complete the entire reconstruction: clear rubble, fix bomb craters, rebuild roads, rebuild public buildings like schools and hospitals, and rebuild housing for the entire population - some ~100,000 buildings at least. Oh, and as a cherry on top, build ports and an airport.

Does anybody here think this timeline is at all realistic? I think it will take much longer, 25 years or so rather than five.
 
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