Getting back on topic......
https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/
Amid unrest in Kenosha, Wis., Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%.
Nationally, President Trump trails Joe Biden by 8 points among likely voters — identical to a poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention earlier this month.
Biden saw his favorability improve to 51% after conventions concluded, while 55% continue to view Trump unfavorably.
Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged from its pre-convention numbers in some of the country’s most-contested states — with the notable exception of Arizona.
While Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in an Aug. 7-16 Morning Consult poll conducted before the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention, the former vice president has improved his margin over Trump by 12 points.
According to the Aug. 21-30 survey of 943 likely Arizona voters, which has a 3-point margin of error, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, driven by a 10-point increase in support among Arizona men, statistically tying him with Trump (49 percent to 45 percent), and a 7-point increase in support with suburban Arizonans, who now favor Biden by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. He also leads among women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 37 percent) in the state.
If you bother to click on the link, you will see the latest results in many swing states. Biden has actually gained a couple of points in my state post convention, which now has him leading Trump in Georgia by 3 points. That is still within the margin of error, but I'm talking about Georgia, which is gradually been turning blue over the past several years.
Biden is out on the trail now. He gave a great speech in Pittsburg yesterday. No time to be complacent, but things are looking somewhat optimistic.
Georgia smorgia. I think the thing that means the most
at the moment is that Biden is an average of about polling 50% in MI and WI and 49% in PA. When looking at WI, MI, PA in
2016, Clinton was leading but well under 50%, closer to 43 to 45%. Biden needs less than 1% in each of those states. The polls are showing that improvement.
Georgia is going to be weird. This election looks like it'll be local. Local didn't cut it for WI, MI, and PA in 2016. But does it cut it in 2020 in GA? Can GA Democrats convince Georgians to vote for Democrats for Senate? I would guess it would be more likely than a guy from Delaware making the pitch.
Supposedly, Ossoff is in a statistical tie with Purdue right now in Georgia, but I'm highly skeptical that Ossoff can beat Purdue. He does have some great commercials though, if such things ever matter. I voted for a much more experienced female during the primaries. She was mayor a large city who was very popular, but Ossoff probably won due to name recognition. I've had so many friends ask me who to vote for in the primaries. Some voted for whoever I told them to vote for. It's really not that hard to look people's records and experience online, but for some reason, a lot of voters don't bother to do that.
The other Georgia Senate race is a special election to finish out the term of Johnny Isakson. I seriously doubt the Dems will win that one because there are so many Dems, and independents running against two Republicans. My guess is that there will be a run off between the two Republicans as the vote will be so split among the other candidates. I don't like Warnock, the preacher who Abrams endorsed, so I won't vote for him unless he ends up being in a run off. I prefer Tarver, a man who has lots of political experience and worked in the Obama Administration.
I read yesterday that only 27% of Georgians intend to vote on Election Day, with 30% planning to vote by mail and 33% planning to vote early. At least we have three full weeks to vote. I guess the rest are undecided as to how they will vote.
I have not seen a poll that said that 19% of Black Americans support Trump, so I think the poll that Metaphor listed is an outlier. I have seen a poll that said that 13% of Black men support Trump, but a much lower number of Black females do. In Georgia, I think Black folks vote Republican about 5% of the time. I have discussed this with a few of my Black female friends. One of them calls me three times a week so we can discuss politics, racism and of course the things that women like to discuss like family matters etc. She told me that the president of her high school class was a Trump supporter, but he is the only Black male that she knows who supports Trump and quite frankly she is horrified about that.
I know a few of my Black neighbors and they aren't Trump supporters, so I doubt there are many Black Trump supporters in Georgia. Some Trump supporters are real assholes. My Biden supporting neighbor was scammed by a man who was supposed to do some work on her gutters. The man didn't do the job he was paid to do. When my neighbor complained to him, he threatened her and ended his threatening texts with Trump 2020 yay! She has a Biden sign in her yard and we tend to think that his behavior might have been due to that. He threatened her so much that she had to call the police and pay for a restraining order. Seriously. What kind of asshole does that to a 74 year old woman, or to anyone for that matter.
I live in a Black majority city, so of course, I know many Black folks personally. We all live peacefully in the suburbs. In fact, most of the folks who live closest to downtown are White these days. So much for Trump trying to scare suburban women. What year does he think this is anyway? 1955?
