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Trump 2024?

Jimmy Higgins said:
McCarthy went to speak with Trump in person.

Anyone who thinks Trump is done hasn't been paying attention. 2016 was a wake up call. The number of votes he received while running against a stalwart moderate Democrat was another wake up call. His insurrection going unpunished by the GOP was another. Trump isn't done. The GOP just won't make it happen. At the moment, Trump is the only position the right-wing appears to care about.

And unlike the Neocons, the world really does seem to operate different for Trump.
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Beating an uncharismatic woman with a ton of baggage on her back was no great feat.

What was big was crushing all the Republican candidates and showing the real thinking of Republican voters.

Republican politicians have been lying and distorting and playing to meaningless wedge issues for so long they have created an insane constituency.

Trump supporters are untethered from reality.

But Trump didn't untie the rope.
 
Swammerdami said:
ideologyhunter said:
Trump redux? He'll be an even fatter, slower 78-year-old. (I know, here's Uncle Joe, he's movin' kinda slow, at the junction. I get it.)
I'm an optimist, and I keep thinking that Trump's constant state of rage will manifest in a major stroke, which will incapacitate him from doing the continual damage to the country that he does every stinking day of his life.
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Good news: I think you're right. By 2024 Trump will be too indicted, too infirm, or too deranged to run.
Bad news: Trump has transformed the GOP. Whoever they DO run will be just as evil, but more competent (and hence more dangerous) than the Orange Buffoon.

Worse news: In the near-term expect GOP electoral successes. Neither Harris nor a very old Biden will be a good candidate. Even if the D's win on points, expect R governors (or Scotus by a 5-4 vote) to award close elections to the R's.
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There's a boulder of truth in what you say. But...there's always the charisma factor in American politics. Our voters often make a shallow decision based on the impact of personality. Someone could come up from either party who will carry the field with an appealing or compelling presence. Who was talking about Obama in '04? He didn't come across as a major player until the '08 primary season. I agree with your comment about Harris and Biden, but there's always the factor of the unemerged champion. On the Repub side, they don't right now have an obvious replacement for the Skidmark, especially someone who could drag some independents into the ranks.
It's still way too close for comfort. That Trump, after letting covid overrun the country, could still get 46% of the electorate to endorse him for a second term, makes me despair for our long-term stability as a nation. (Forget covid, his birtherism beginning around 2011 should've branded him as a thoroughly unacceptable and contemptible liar and lout.)
 
Swammerdami said:
ideologyhunter said:
Trump redux? He'll be an even fatter, slower 78-year-old. (I know, here's Uncle Joe, he's movin' kinda slow, at the junction. I get it.)
I'm an optimist, and I keep thinking that Trump's constant state of rage will manifest in a major stroke, which will incapacitate him from doing the continual damage to the country that he does every stinking day of his life.
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Good news: I think you're right. By 2024 Trump will be too indicted, too infirm, or too deranged to run.
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If he's alive at all, he'll be the Tweet behind the throne of anyone who does run.
 
Kingmaker not making kings again.
article said:
Voters in North Texas delivered an upset Tuesday, picking GOP state Rep. Jake Ellzey to fill a vacant House seat over a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Ellzey beat fellow Republican Susan Wright, the widow of former Rep. Ron Wright, 53 percent to 47 percent, when the Associated Press called the low-turnout, Republican-vs.-Republican runoff. Though Ellzey was better funded, Wright leaned heavily on her backing from the former president, who often plays kingmaker in Republican primaries.

Trump crashed into the race during the first round of voting in May, tapping Wright out of a crowded all-party primary and turning the contest into an early test of his post-presidency clout. He held two tele-town halls for her and taped a robocall for her, making the loss more painful.
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Trump seems to really excite Trump voters, but only if Trump is running. Elizey was supported locally by the GOP machine, which again shows that when the GOP wants what they want, they usually can get it. So why they are still providing a life line to Trump is beyond my imagination.

Meanwhile, in the AG race in Texas between scandal plagued Paxton and Jeb Bush's son George (we have no other ideas for names) Bush, Georgie was tossing Trump's salad like crazy like a gutless coward. And Trump came out and backed Paxton. I'm not even certain Trump knows what he is doing.

Meanwhilewhile, in Georgia, Trump's favorite black guy, Herschel Walker, who Trump nominated to run for Senate, has been getting a bit more under the microscope and people read his book... and allegations against him, which is really making a run for US Senate hard. Almost as hard as the fact he doesn't live in Georgia... something Georgians care a bit about.
 
In a run off election in Texas, the Trump backed candidate was defeated. Turn out was light. If in a red district in a red state, Trump was not a decisive factor in an election, he is not going to be a big electoral king maker as some think.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
In a run off election in Texas, the Trump backed candidate was defeated. Turn out was light. If in a red district in a red state, Trump was not a decisive factor in an election, he is not going to be a big electoral king maker as some think.
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His coat tails are nonexistent. Red hats are willing to storm the Capitol for (and only for) Trump. But his significance, as far as the GOP Is concerned, isn't minor.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
In a run off election in Texas, the Trump backed candidate was defeated. Turn out was light. If in a red district in a red state, Trump was not a decisive factor in an election, he is not going to be a big electoral king maker as some think.
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His coat tails are nonexistent. Red hats are willing to storm the Capitol for (and only for) Trump. But his significance, as far as the GOP Is concerned, isn't minor.
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He's like one of those wrestlers, those guys have a definite following. Orange even gets introduced in his rallies similarly because his fans love it. I'd keep milking that cash cow too.

But among non wrestling fans he isn't riding as high. So sure, he has a following, but not enough to win in 2024.
 
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...w-poll-say-it-would-be-bad-for-the-country-if

...
A majority of Americans in a new poll think it would be bad for the country if former President Trump runs for office in 2024.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, found that 60 percent of respondents said it would be bad for the country if Trump were to launch a bid for president in 2024.
Thirty-two percent of respondents, however, said another Trump campaign would be good for the country.
...

Only 32% want Trump. Sounds like a recipe for political failure. The 2024 GOP primaries are going to be fun.
 
And now we have Marjorie Taylor Greene and Sarah Palin making noises about running for president. This could be a real freak show in 2024. Oh yes, and DeSantis.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...w-poll-say-it-would-be-bad-for-the-country-if

...
A majority of Americans in a new poll think it would be bad for the country if former President Trump runs for office in 2024.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, found that 60 percent of respondents said it would be bad for the country if Trump were to launch a bid for president in 2024.
Thirty-two percent of respondents, however, said another Trump campaign would be good for the country.
...

Only 32% want Trump. Sounds like a recipe for political failure. The 2024 GOP primaries are going to be fun.
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Not sure why the GOP would be concerned about that, their plan is to steal the election anyway, so it does not matter what the majority of Americans want, or how large that majority is.
 
KeepTalking said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...w-poll-say-it-would-be-bad-for-the-country-if

...
A majority of Americans in a new poll think it would be bad for the country if former President Trump runs for office in 2024.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, found that 60 percent of respondents said it would be bad for the country if Trump were to launch a bid for president in 2024.
Thirty-two percent of respondents, however, said another Trump campaign would be good for the country.
...

Only 32% want Trump. Sounds like a recipe for political failure. The 2024 GOP primaries are going to be fun.
Click to expand...

Not sure why the GOP would be concerned about that, their plan is to steal the election anyway, so it does not matter what the majority of Americans want, or how large that majority is.
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Looks like the question was about a Trump campaign, not a Trump presidency.

And, yeah, two years of Trump convoys running other candidates' busses off the road? Trump insulting everyone around him, with or without the slightest fact involved? Two years of maximum media access for Twitterman? Two years of Democrats trying to review his record, long, long lists of his every crime and impeachment?

Much better for everyone, on both sides, if he keeps teasingly vague about whether or not he'll run. Then just announces his candidacy on Halloween and the legislatures throw the votes his way.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...w-poll-say-it-would-be-bad-for-the-country-if

...
A majority of Americans in a new poll think it would be bad for the country if former President Trump runs for office in 2024.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, found that 60 percent of respondents said it would be bad for the country if Trump were to launch a bid for president in 2024.
Thirty-two percent of respondents, however, said another Trump campaign would be good for the country.
...

Only 32% want Trump. Sounds like a recipe for political failure. The 2024 GOP primaries are going to be fun.
Click to expand...

There were similar polls before his first campaign; he wasn't taken seriously, until he was.
 
He was taken seriously in 2020. See what happened then? If Orango The Clown officially runs in 2024, he will be taken seriously. But he will not win. It is then just a matter of how bad that hurts the GOP down ballot.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
He was taken seriously in 2020. See what happened then? If Orango The Clown officially runs in 2024, he will be taken seriously. But he will not win. It is then just a matter of how bad that hurts the GOP down ballot.
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I don't think that's a given at all. If it were a fair fight, maybe his cause would be hopeless. But it won't be a fair fight.
 
No, it is not going to be a fair fight if he runs. It is going to be scorched earth from the anti-Trump forces. In the mean time, lots of lawsuits are still in play against Orango. And the January 6 Inquiry will be done and over. Trumpo will support many extreme loonies as Trump approved down ballot candidates that will demonstrate why he is still stupid and extreme. It ain't 2016 any more.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...w-poll-say-it-would-be-bad-for-the-country-if

...
A majority of Americans in a new poll think it would be bad for the country if former President Trump runs for office in 2024.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, found that 60 percent of respondents said it would be bad for the country if Trump were to launch a bid for president in 2024.
Thirty-two percent of respondents, however, said another Trump campaign would be good for the country.
...

Only 32% want Trump. Sounds like a recipe for political failure. The 2024 GOP primaries are going to be fun.
Click to expand...

However, what Americans think is not important in our rigged system.

Two private organizations, the DNC and the RNC will decide on all the viable candidates. They'll go through the motions of holding primaries, but they're private organizations and don't have to do anything they don't want to do.

Then we'll hold a show election, but again it doesn't matter who the American people vote for. State legislatures choose EC delegates, and the EC delegates appoint a president. To quote Nikita Khrushchev, "The people? The people?! The people have no say!"

Tom
 
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/for-some-candidates-trump-endorsement-actually-kiss-of-death

How much did Trumpo's endorsement of GOP candidates help in 2018 - 2020? Analysis of the elections show he did not help.

...
Ultimately, we found that Trump’s endorsements cost Republicans 16 seats – exactly 20% of the 80 candidates he endorsed. That represented 12 in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate.
....

I do not see any better results in 2024. This is especially going to fail in those states that are not deep red, where Independents matter a lot. The GOP is getting a reputation as the party of Covid, insurrection and racism.
 
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