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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

How's it anyone's business who Ukraine/the wife sides with?
Crimeans and Eastern Ukrainians sided with Russia.
You peddle rubbish. Russians invaded Crimea AND eastern Ukraine in 2014 and the Russian guns to the heads of the people did the "siding." It's like you think nobody has ever been mugged because all of those wallets were handed over willingly by their original owners.

We will never know the true wishes and preferences of the people in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, but it doesn't even matter if they DID prefer to join Russia. Because THEY WERE FREE TO DO SO ALREADY! (legally and without bloodshed)
Actually, I think we do know their wishes. The thing is that Russian "election" was set up so status quo ante wasn't even on the ballot. That makes it very clear that Russia was afraid it would win despite how much they were rigging things. Thus I'm left with the conclusion that Russia knew the area would prefer to be with Ukraine.
 
Well, Aupy you should be able to figure that out for yourself. The very first thing they did when they invaded their neighbor, was to head a twenty mile line of tanks straight for Kyiv. They all got slaughtered, much to Putler’s surprise. Do you think they’d have made such a spectacular sacrifice going for something they didn’t want?
Perhaps it was an over-reach by a General who was later sacked. Perhaps they wanted to encircle Kyiv and force Ukraine their way.
Encircle or invade, basically the same objective.

And I'm not surprised the general was sacked as how it was handled was an epic blunder. In land warfare cutting off a column is about the best move you can make. They pulled their move in mud season when the column would be pretty much confined to the road, rather than when it was dry and they could have gone around. Finland gave Russia a brutal lesson in the danger of getting a column cut off and that was back when infantry had to get up close to kill tanks. This time around the infantry had missiles that could kill from beyond gun range, making the cut-off vehicles little more than targets.

Either the general is an idiot for sticking his dick in the meat grinder, or he's the fall guy for someone above him ordering him to stick his dick in the meat grinder.
 
100kT is a tiddler by thermonuclear standards.

A B83 warhead (1200kT) airburst would cause 3rd degree burns out to 13.4km, and according to NUKEMAP, would kill about 1.5 million people.
And Russia has them even bigger. Big booms are used to compensate for inaccurate delivery systems. We

A number of smaller warheads is far more destructive than a single large one; 30 x 40kT targeting large Indian cities (including three or four on New Delhi) would be able to instantly kill ten million people easily, and Pakistan would still have 140 left.
Simple way to figure this--blast radius goes at the third root of power. Damage area goes at the square of radius. Thus dividing a boom into 8 smaller booms doubles the damage area.
A full scale strike by Pakistan could kill 600 million people by blast, burns and other immediate trauma, before we even consider the effects of fallout and long term consequences due to the collapse of infrastructure and the destruction of food and water systems and supply chains.

Having a few hundred thousand corpses on your doorstep would affect you a great deal more than a few broken windows.
And the disruption would kill a lot more.
 
You have had wars with China because you dared defy them. Why is the Ukraine situation any different?

Because China is not 10x the size with 4x the population of India. And India has little worth taking, let alone 40% of the world’s grain production.
 
and de-arm completely that Russia will respect their future borders and never invade again
Russia had respected Ukro-borders for 25 years until they decided to go full nazi and ban russians.
You agree then that Russia won’t honor a future peace agreement with an unarmed Ukraine correct?
Russia had been honoring peace agreement with unarmed Ukraine just fine until you came along and told them to start killing russians. So Russia always honors agreements, unlike Dying Hegemon.
Virtually all former USSR republics unarmed, some don't have border with NATO. And they are all fine, Russia does not invade and subjugate any of them, why?
 
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You never managed to explain how NATO started the war.
I did, in my post https://iidb.org/threads/how-should...vasion-of-ukraine.25317/page-785#post-1197836
"The tilt lead to a fall." Too much tilt resulted in a war. Ukraine should have avoided it.
You have had wars with China because you dared defy them. Why is the Ukraine situation any different?
You have had wars with Canada, Mexico, Cuba,....
 
and de-arm completely that Russia will respect their future borders and never invade again
Russia had respected Ukro-borders for 25 years until they decided to go full nazi and ban russians.
You agree then that Russia won’t honor a future peace agreement with an unarmed Ukraine correct?
Russia had been honoring peace agreement with unarmed Ukraine just fine until you came along and told them to start killing russians. So Russia always honors agreements, unlike Dying Hegemon.
Virtually all former USSR republics unarmed, some don't have border with NATO. And they are all fine, Russia does not invade and subjugate any of them, why?
I know of no Russians that have been killed prior to 2014. There may have been Russian "green army men" infitrators that were killed but that's what happens to invading forces.
 
And anyone who was actually targetting New Delhi (probably Pakistan - they have about 170 warheads each yielding around 40kT) would likely cover the city with several MIRVed hits.
About the same as ours. They have much fewer large cities. We have 46 with a population more than a million, and 6 with greater than 900,000. They have just 2, Lahore and Karachi.
US has 10, and 4 more with greater than 900,000. (Stats from Wikipedia)
 
I know of no Russians that have been killed prior to 2014.
Yes, until Nuland came along and ordered her nazis to start killing russians.
And then and only then, russians said "We want out of this shithole called Ukraine"
So you see, don't kill russians and don't invite NATO scambags and you will have your country safe from russian "invasion"
 
You have had wars with China because you dared defy them. Why is the Ukraine situation any different?
We are not lead by our nose by Western powers. China understands that we have an independent policy. We will decide relations with China by what policy it has for India. At the moment, it extends to restrictions on business and participation in Quad.
That's why I find Aupanyav position so baffling. It doesn't seem to belong to any camp.
Yeah, I am in no camp. I am independent, like my government. I do not think my government's policy is any different.
Encircle or invade, basically the same objective.
Yes, the objective was the same - Remove NATO influence on Ukraine.
 
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Questioning whether the victim was asking for it without any reason to think so. That's a position usually taken by abusers.
Ask the supposed accuser. He will mention the reasons. Why was Yanukovych removed and Poroshenko elected?
Will of the people (in disregard to realities). That is the reason for the war.
 
.. don't invite NATO scambags and you will have your country safe from russian "invasion".
That is correct. There was no need for a tilt and no need for a war.
Except US wanted war with Russia in order to regime change it.
And the reason why they wanted regime change and subjugate Russia is becasue Russia has a nice and juicy border with .... China which would have allowed US to harass or even start Russo-China war.
It was a great plan, I must admit.
 
And anyone who was actually targetting New Delhi (probably Pakistan - they have about 170 warheads each yielding around 40kT) would likely cover the city with several MIRVed hits.
About the same as ours. They have much fewer large cities. We have 46 with a population more than a million, and 6 with greater than 900,000. They have just 2, Lahore and Karachi.
US has 10, and 4 more with greater than 900,000. (Stats from Wikipedia)
I know. I don't care, because it's not relevant to anything previously mentioned in this thread; But I do know all of this trivia.

Why are you wasting time telling me stuff I already know, have expressed no interest in, and that isn't relevant to our existing derail from the actual topic?

How does any of this alter the fact that a nuclear attack on New Delhi would massively fuck up the lives of the survivors, of whom you are far from certain to be one?

Nuclear war would be a total disaster, even for survivors on the "winning" side. And even for you personally, if your home city were to be attacked.

Your blasé attitude towards it is both stupid and dangerous.
 
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You have had wars with China because you dared defy them. Why is the Ukraine situation any different?
We are not lead by our nose by Western powers. China understands that we have an independent policy. We will decide relations with China by what policy it has for India. At the moment, it extends to restrictions on business and participation in Quad.
That's why I find Aupanyav position so baffling. It doesn't seem to belong to any camp.
Yeah, I am in no camp. I am independent, like my government. I do not think my government's policy is any different.
Encircle or invade, basically the same objective.
Yes, the objective was the same - Remove NATO influence on Ukraine.
India is not an island. No nation is*.

No nation is free of influence by every power, Western or otherwise - indeed, that's what it means to be a "power".

Independence is a dangerous myth. Interdependence is not only unavoidable, but hugely beneficial to all nations - look at the history of North Korea, or of Albania, if you want an example of how poorly nations do when they attempt to isolate themselves. Even these famous bastions of isolation were forced to interact with their neighbours in order to survive.

India has a degree of autonomy due to her size and her military strength. Other nations do not have that strength, and must seek alliances.

The idea that Ukraine (or any nation) should not, or may not, seek protection from alliances not first approved by Russia is a century and a half out of date. The world is no longer divided into spheres of influence by the Great Powers, without consultation with the subjects of such divisions. Nations are free to join whatever alliances they wish (or to form new ones), as long as those alliances are prepared to accept their application for membership.

Two World Wars demonstrated that colonialism of that kind is neither tolerable for the subjugated smaller nations, nor effective in preventing conflict between the subjugating Powers. It was tried; It failed; It needs to be abandoned.

Even if Putin is dumb enough to not realise that it is over.

"Now is not a time for war" - President Modi, speaking to Putin in September 2022 at the first meeting of the two leaders since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article...des-vladimir-putin-over-ukraine-war/yhtul8ddt

He was right; But Putin didn't want to hear it.






*Figuratively speaking, of course. I am Australian, so I have an inkling that some nations are literally islands.
 
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