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2020 Election Results

For the House, that's
  • R: 202 (flip) 4
  • D: 233 (flip) 16
So I estimate that Democrats will lose 12 seats, giving D 221 R 214

Seems like I made a mistake on AZ-06. Challenger Hiral Tipirneni is likely to lose.

The Democrats flipped two formerly Republican seats, NC-02 and NC-06, but that was due to court-ordered redistricting. The Dems may also pick up GA-07 and CA-25 (Katie Hill's seat). When she resigned, they had a special election, and Mike Garcia (R) defeated Christy Smith (D) for it. The two have a rematch, with CS now ahead.

Back to the "dumpster fire" article.

It has speculation that this defeat will make it more difficult for Nancy Pelosi to get another term as House Speaker.
Democrats were already engaging in rapid-fire finger-pointing about who is to blame for Tuesday’s embarrassing showing, with the private angst likely to spill out into the public in the coming days as the full House landscape becomes known. Several centrist Democrats blamed their more progressive colleagues, saying moderates in Trump-leaning districts couldn’t escape their “socialist” shadow.

Others argued that the DCCC had been far too bullish in seats the party was realistically never going to pick up — citing races such as Arkansas’ 2nd District — while missing the looming disaster in South Florida, where incumbents Shalala and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell were ousted. Several Democrats said the party operation was not focused on a cohesive, proactive message that went beyond simply opposing Trump, who proved to remain popular in many districts.

And some said DCCC wasted time battling the party's left flank with its contentious policies designed to stymie primary challengers.
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I think that in part it's due to centrist Dems not having much of a message. Progressive Dems have lots of things that the want to do. Centrists? Not so much.
There were some early warning signs in Trump country, Democrats acknowledged, but said the party still failed in a huge way to predict the level of GOP engagement that blindsided them in 2016. In Bustos’ reelection fight, the Illinois Democrat had repeatedly declined financial help from her colleagues until the final three weeks leading up to the race, according to several Democratic sources.

...
Rep. Henry Cuellar, a senior Blue Dog in south Texas, said some in his party underestimated Trump’s strength, particularly in the farm-heavy counties outside the urban centers, where Democrats have long struggled to develop a message.

“This is what I’ve been saying over and over and over. Urban areas are important, but you still gotta look at the rural areas,” Cuellar said. “If we don't change the strategy, it’s going to be the same in 2022.”
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Is this the Republicans more generally or Trump hero-worship?
 
barbos said:
Damn, CNN is bitching about losing AZ.
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Where?

The New York Times shows the vote fractions as functions of time for some of the states, and NV and AZ may end up losses for Biden while PA and GA may end up gains. NV and AZ have a total of 17 EV's, while PA has 20 and GA has 16.

So if Biden loses NV and AZ but gains GA, then the EV counts will be tied and the election will go over to the House, with its one vote per House delegation.

If he gains PA, then he will win, even if he loses NV and AZ.


Madison Cawthorn (R) won in NC-11, defeating Moe Davis (D) 54.5% - 42.4% with (Libertarian) 1.9%, (Green) 1.2%
He'll be the youngest person in the House. He is not likely the youngest person ever, because there's someone who likely beat him over the 230 years that the House has been in operation. AOC remains the youngest of her sex, however.
 
Democrats’ down-ballot misery continues with state legislative battles - The Washington Post - not likely to get any more state legislatures. The Republicans will likely continue with their gerrymandering.

Miami-Dade Hispanics helped sink Biden in Florida - The Washington Post - all the Cubans there.

Black voters could be difference for Biden in key states - The Washington Post - they rescued Biden in South Carolina in the primaries, and they are likely rescuing him now.
The former vice president also flipped Wisconsin and Michigan, after outstanding ballots were counted from greater Milwaukee and Detroit — two other areas with a concentration of Black voters.

“The truth of the matter is, once again, it’s African American voters, Black people, that have to step up and save our democracy. There is not a more loyal and dependable voting bloc in the country,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist in South Carolina. “And if you look at when we show up, we win elections. This election is just further proof of that, in spite of the voter suppression, the misinformation and disinformation and the lies that target our communities election after election.”

Nationally, Black voters overwhelmingly backed Biden by a margin of 87 percent to Trump’s 12 percent, according to exit polls. But Black women were even more loyal to the Democrat, with 91 percent voting for Biden and 8 percent for Trump.
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Suggests that black men voted Biden 83% Trump 16% -- black people have the sort of gender gap that other people have.

Here are some of the politicians whose efforts made that possible.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Shout out to @IlhanMN and @RashidaTlaib for the INCREDIBLE turnout and ground game they ran in two key counties of two key states, MI & MN." / Twitter

Ayanna Pressley on Twitter: "Out work the hate. Challenge conventional wisdom. Expand the electorate. Ignore polls & consultants. Listen to the people. Organize. Mobilize. Turnout. Repeat. S/O to @RashidaTlaib @IlhanMN #Michigan #Minnesota" / Twitter

Jamaal Bowman on Twitter: "Just so we are clear, @IlhanMN and @RashidaTlaib were MAJOR factors in delivering Minnesota and Michigan for @JoeBiden. My sisters are movement and nation builders. So humbled to join y’all in Congress. Let’s go!" / Twitter
 
Jokodo said:
barbos said:
bilby said:
Well, bits of it are. Vladivostok is in the same time zone as Brisbane. Moscow not so much.
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Well, let just say, RU timezone is a super-set of AU timezone set.
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Except it isn't. Australian Central Time is GMT plus 9:30, while I believe Russia only uses integer offsets from GMT.
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I can always rely on your power of useless corrections. Issue was really about solar time, not how people choose to set their clocks.
 
Julio Ricardo Varela on Twitter: "Hey @CNN, @cindymccain is not the only reason that Biden won Arizona. It wasn't just that. Can you at least discuss the overwhelming Latino support and the organizing history of young Latinos in the time of SB1070?" / Twitter

Valeria Aponte on Twitter: "@julito77 @ErikaAndiola @CNN @cindymccain While Cindy played a role, I can tell you that if Biden and Kelly win Arizona it is mainly due to the community outreach of local latino organizations that like you mentioned are composed of organizers that are the sons and daughters of immigrants, who were raised under SB1070." / Twitter


Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Shout out to the hard work of grassroots organizers who successfully led a wave of marijuana legalization, expungement, & drug decriminalization efforts last night." / Twitter

Introduction of ranked-choice voting to MA and AK failed, introduction of nonpartisan top-two voting to Florida failed by not reaching 60%, but approval-voting top-two elections succeeded in St. Louis MO. One votes for as many candidates one wants in the primary, then the top two of them advance to the general election.
 
OLDMAN said:
Strange they haven't called Pen for Trump yet?
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From what I understand, most of the votes still to be counted are from the urban areas which would be mostly democratic votes. Not sure Biden can make up the current 160k vote deficit though.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
dannyk said:
Is the senate now known? Is it rep controlled?
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While NC and GA are "close", it seems a safe bet that the Republicans have maintained control of the Senate.
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On the contrary.

At least one of the Georgia Senate races will go to a runoff in early January. it's possible both will.

May not ultimately change the balance, but we won't know for a bit.
 
Morning Announcements:

- Okay, when I said go to sleep, I didn't mean you PA vote counters! While GA was slaving away picking away at the absentee pile, I wake up and the vote isn't any further counted! I NEED THIS TO BE OVER!!!

- GA , appreciate the sacrifice that some other states (*cough* NV, AZ, PA), seem incapable of making. Biden is now down by less than 18,000 votes. To put that into perspective, the difference is about 1/5 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 yesterday. Actually, I don't think that is helpful. The number of absentee ballots left to be counted? I have no idea. But Biden needs that number to likely be around 25,000 to 30,000.

- Trump supporters go out in Arizona to prove they are the dumbest political minds ever, including supporters of the Don't Know Shit Party at the turn of the 20th Century... a party of politicians that didn't even know what country they were in. How did they form that party? Even they didn't know. But still got 0.5% of the popular vote in 1900. That is gives us a metric (that I had to make up because it is that stupid) for comparing how stupid the Trump supporters that went out to protest in front of a Election Voting building and demanding the vote be counted... while the vote was being counted in said building!

- While the Dems didn't win the Senate, Georgia actually could get interesting. Purdue has a greater than 2.0% lead, but is sitting at 50%... check that... 50.038%. That is currently 1850 votes above 50.000000000%, the threshold for a runoff between the top two candidates. It is hard to tell if the incumbent Purdue would be in any more danger of losing, but without a Pro-Trump drive, Stacey Abrams et al would certainly like another crack at it.

- Is Arizona in danger? Could be. Trump needs about 60% of the remaining ballots to win. He is pretty close to that at the moment, but the question remains where are the absentees coming from and are they friendly to idea of twisting the knife Trump plunged into America's belly? For whatever it is worth, exit poll data says Biden clearly won.

- How much fucking longer?! Too long!

- Right now, there is a lot of angst over the minority vote and how it turned out.

I for one, think the Democrats need to THANK the minority vote for, what we are pretty close to achieving, winning this election and protecting America from White People. As a white person myself, I can't help but notice just how fucked up the white vote is. IE, how many white motherfuckers have voted for Trump. A supermajority or 3 in 2 white people voted to re-elect poison.

A lot was said about 2020 being the most important election ever. That is a false. 2016 was. 2020 was about putting a tourniquet on the severed limb. And while some white people, 40% isn't something to sneeze at, had the sense of not voting for poison... it was minorities, in a greater levels than whites for Trump that said "NO!!!!" to more fucking poison. So thanks for saying "No" to more poison! We'd be even more fucked without you.

A note to elderly Cuban Hispanics. I'm sorry for what you went through, but you really need to understand that Trump doesn't, didn't, and never will give a fuck about what you went through, and you were conned.
 
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