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2020 Election Results

Checking on IA-02 and NY-22

LISTEN: Where Things Stand In Disagreements Over Iowa's 2nd Congressional District Election Outcome | Iowa Public Radio
Contested 2nd Congressional District race still unresolved
An argument over 22 votes that Democrat Rita Hart wants counted, and that Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks doesn't. MMM won by 6 votes.

Judge delays NY 22nd race another week after last-minute Brindisi effort - syracuse.com
Judge pauses finalizing NY-22 results with Tenney lead to consider Brindisi’s request for audit of votes | WSYR

From syracuse.com:
At last count, Tenney led Brindisi by 122 votes of more than 316,000 cast for the two candidates. She appeared to pick up a handful more Monday morning during a court-ordered examination of several ballots that hadn’t yet been reviewed.
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Then details of the continuing litigation.
 
Tenney takes 109-vote lead in NY-22 after judge orders certification
Republican Claudia Tenney prevailed Friday over Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi in the first official count in the nation's only congressional race still undecided — a contest that promises to drag out even further.

More than three months after Election Day and a messy recanvassing of several ballot categories, a New York state judge ordered all eight counties in the 22nd Congressional District to certify their counts, which show Tenney won the drawn out rematch by 109 votes.

Disarray, but not fraud: ... He also noted that for all the errors, there was no fraud.
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noting
ALBANY, N.Y. — Attorneys for the two candidates in a still-unresolved House race in upstate New York recently found themselves battling over what appeared to be an extra mark on a challenged paper ballot.

At issue was whether the marking was a bloodstain or a bit of chocolate, a crucial distinction. With roughly a dozen votes separating winner from loser, blood — an identifying marker — could mean tossing out the ballot because it is supposed to be secret. And with roughly a dozen votes separating incumbent Democrat Anthony Brindisi and Republican challenger Claudia Tenney, literally every vote was crucial.
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New York House rematch plays out the only way it could: Strange and complicated
and
Judge orders certification of the votes
 
Judge rules in favor of Tenney in battle for 22nd Congressional District | WSYR
In the race for the 22nd Congressional District, State Supreme Court Judge Scott DelConte has ruled in favor of republican Claudia Tenney.

After hearing 11 days of testimony from 19 witnesses, the judge has made his ruling and Claudia Tenney has officially declared victory in a race separated by just 109 votes.
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Anthony Brindisi concedes loss to Claudia Tenney in NY-22 House race - syracuse.com
But two hours after the state certified the election at noon, Brindisi called Tenney to concede. He told her that he would drop all legal appeals and his demand for a manual hand recount of all 316,000-plus ballots cast in the election.

Brindisi said in a statement that it was time to move on from the election and focus on uniting the nation and building a better community.

But he said he has deep concerns about a series of errors and other problems that surfaced as election officials in eight counties counted absentee and affidavit ballots following the Nov. 3 election.
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So that settles that race.

Now to IA-02, the only remaining one.
Iowa congressional contest heats up as House takes first step to consider election challenge | Fox News - "Democrat Rita Hart is asking the House to declare her the winner over Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks"
 
House takes first steps toward deciding contested Iowa election - POLITICO - "Democrat Rita Hart is asking the chamber to overturn her 6-vote loss to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, arguing valid votes were improperly discarded."
The Friday meeting was brief. Members unanimously agreed to a resolution that establishes procedures the committee will abide by as it considers recent elections contested under the act. The committee has yet to act on a request by Miller-Meeks to dismiss Hart’s contest. A formal refusal to dismiss is what would truly set an investigation into motion, opening up a lengthy discovery period during which the campaigns can submit evidence and the committee could request ballots or even send staff into the southeastern Iowa district.

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), the ranking member, on Friday urged the members not to take up the contest, warning they would set a "dangerous precedent" if they legitimize Hart's decision to appeal to the House before exhausting all legal remedies in Iowa.

"I can't think of a worst first step this committee could take in a new Congress than to waste taxpayer dollars by moving forward with overturning this election," he said.
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Process established for Hart, Miller-Meeks challenge | Local News | oskaloosa.com - "If the 22 ballots included in Hart’s challenge are counted, she would win by a 9-vote margin."
 
U.S. Supreme Court formally pulls the plug on election-related cases

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday brought a formal end to eight lingering disputes pursued by former President Donald Trump and his allies related to the Nov. 3 presidential election including a Republican challenge to the extension of Pennsylvania’s deadline to receive mail-in ballots.

The justices turned away appeals by the Republican Party of Pennsylvania and Republican members of the state legislature of a ruling by Pennsylvania’s top court ordering officials to count mail-in ballots that were postmarked by Election Day and received up to three days later.

Three of the nine-member court’s six conservative justices - Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch - dissented from the decision not to hear the Pennsylvania case.

Trump, a Republican, lost his re-election bid to Democrat Joe Biden, who took office on Jan. 20. Biden defeated Trump by more than 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania and the legal case focused on fewer than 10,000 ballots.

The high court, as expected, also rejected two Trump appeals challenging Biden’s victories in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin based on claims that the rules for mail-in ballots in the two election battleground states were invalid. The court also turned away separate cases brought by Trump allies in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona - all states won by Biden.
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lpetrich said:
Judge rules in favor of Tenney in battle for 22nd Congressional District | WSYR
In the race for the 22nd Congressional District, State Supreme Court Judge Scott DelConte has ruled in favor of republican Claudia Tenney.

After hearing 11 days of testimony from 19 witnesses, the judge has made his ruling and Claudia Tenney has officially declared victory in a race separated by just 109 votes.
Click to expand...
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Anthony Brindisi concedes loss to Claudia Tenney in NY-22 House race - syracuse.com
But two hours after the state certified the election at noon, Brindisi called Tenney to concede. He told her that he would drop all legal appeals and his demand for a manual hand recount of all 316,000-plus ballots cast in the election.

Brindisi said in a statement that it was time to move on from the election and focus on uniting the nation and building a better community.
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What a weenie. Obviously he should have rallied a few thousand zealots to attack the State Capitol, kill some cops (and legislators if possible) and trash the joint.
THAT IS WHAT IS DONE WHEN YOU LOSE these days, right?
 
House chooses to not dismiss Hart challenge to Miller-Meeks victory
noting
U.S. House Committee tables Miller-Meeks motion in election challenge
A U.S. House Committee voted Wednesday to table Congresswoman Marianette Miller-Meeks’ motion to dismiss Hart's petition.
Advertisement

The committee voted along party lines with six Democrats voting yes and three Republicans voting no.
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Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories. | FiveThirtyEight
Pollsters are perplexed. Many believed that the polling errors we saw in 2016 had been adequately addressed in time for the 2020 presidential election. But once again, the polls underestimated support for Donald Trump (and support for Republicans across the board). Now, more than three months out from the election, we still don’t have a great sense as to why.
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The theories:
1) Republicans are losing confidence in institutions, and Trump accelerated this distrust.

2) Republicans, particularly college graduates, worry they will be ostracized for their political views.
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The "shy Trumpie" theory, like the "shy Tory" theory of Britain.
 
lpetrich said:
House chooses to not dismiss Hart challenge to Miller-Meeks victory
noting
U.S. House Committee tables Miller-Meeks motion in election challenge


Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories. | FiveThirtyEight

The theories:
1) Republicans are losing confidence in institutions, and Trump accelerated this distrust.

2) Republicans, particularly college graduates, worry they will be ostracized for their political views.
Click to expand...
The "shy Trumpie" theory, like the "shy Tory" theory of Britain.
Click to expand...
This is overly simplistic, as the polls we right, close, and wrong.

ALLEGED PURPLE STATES

Polls for Biden in Virginia indicated a ridiculous double digit victory. Biden won by 10.2%.

Polls for Biden in Colorado indicated an uproarious 12 to 15 pt victory! Biden won by 13.5%.

So, let's just look there. Two "purple" states, polls indicated a ridiculous margin of victory... and Biden won by Blue State block levels. Clearly, the methodology and polling were spot on!

REDDISH PURPLE STATES

Polls for Biden in Arizona indicated a very tight victory of 1 to 3 percent. Biden won by less than half a percent.

Polls for Biden in Georgia indicated a Biden victory of about 1 pt. Biden won by less than half a percent.

So now in reddish purple states, the polling was accurate, very accurate.

So we have two different types of states where the polling numbers were very very accurate. Methodologies aren't exactly swapping for polls in other purple states like Iowa and Ohio.

OTHER ALLEGED PURPLE STATES

But then we had Ohio and Iowa which predicted tight margins of victory, and Trump won handily. Trump support in these states was underappreciated in the polls. Which means the turnout weights were likely not accurate enough.

ADJACENT STATES
Even in geography things make little sense. Look at Minnesota and Wisconsin polling wise. The polls were near identical with Biden having a comfortable lead. Yet the outcome? Minnesota had a 0 pt error and Wisconsin had a -6 pt error.

SAFE BLUE STATES
Michigan and Pennsylvania were the "close" ones with outcomes being on the far edge of the margin of error, but both in Trump's favor.

So the polls are all over the place.

RIGHT - Georgia, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia
CLOSE - Pennsylvania, Michigan
WRONG - Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa

This to me implies demographic shifts.

As to why the Dems didn't extend the House? Gerrymandering.
 
lpetrich said:
House chooses to not dismiss Hart challenge to Miller-Meeks victory
noting
U.S. House Committee tables Miller-Meeks motion in election challenge


Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories. | FiveThirtyEight

The theories:
1) Republicans are losing confidence in institutions, and Trump accelerated this distrust.

2) Republicans, particularly college graduates, worry they will be ostracized for their political views.
Click to expand...
The "shy Trumpie" theory, like the "shy Tory" theory of Britain.
Click to expand...

It's also possible that the polls are right, but the election results are wrong, with Republicans doing better than expected at the election because they cheated.

Perhaps the constant claims of election fraud are not entirely without merit. ;)
 
bilby said:
lpetrich said:
...
The "shy Trumpie" theory, like the "shy Tory" theory of Britain.
Click to expand...

It's also possible that the polls are right, but the election results are wrong, with Republicans doing better than expected at the election because they cheated.

Perhaps the constant claims of election fraud are not entirely without merit. ;)
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That's certainly possible in some cases, but I found in my research that Republicans did better than expected even in heavily Democratic areas. I found that out by using the predictions of FiveThirtyEight.com - a site whose predictions I consider among the best ones. I found where I could download a spreadsheet that was full of 538 predictions, and I compared them to actual results.
 
bilby said:
lpetrich said:
House chooses to not dismiss Hart challenge to Miller-Meeks victory
noting
U.S. House Committee tables Miller-Meeks motion in election challenge


Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories. | FiveThirtyEight

The theories:
1) Republicans are losing confidence in institutions, and Trump accelerated this distrust.

2) Republicans, particularly college graduates, worry they will be ostracized for their political views.
Click to expand...
The "shy Trumpie" theory, like the "shy Tory" theory of Britain.
Click to expand...

It's also possible that the polls are right, but the election results are wrong, with Republicans doing better than expected at the election because they cheated.

Perhaps the constant claims of election fraud are not entirely without merit. ;)
Click to expand...

I think we'd be remiss to not acknowledge that factor. We KNOW there is gerrymandering, we KNOW there are multi-pronged suppression efforts. We don't know what else the Republicans are up to beyond their propaganda machinery, but while it might not be a sure bet that there are other "cheats" in play, it would definitely be a mistake to assume the contrary.
 
lpetrich said:
House chooses to not dismiss Hart challenge to Miller-Meeks victory
noting
U.S. House Committee tables Miller-Meeks motion in election challenge


Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories. | FiveThirtyEight

The theories:
1) Republicans are losing confidence in institutions, and Trump accelerated this distrust.

2) Republicans, particularly college graduates, worry they will be ostracized for their political views.
Click to expand...
The "shy Trumpie" theory, like the "shy Tory" theory of Britain.
Click to expand...

The most simple explanation as to why there is regular inconsistency between polling and vote results is election fraud inflating the results in favor of republicans.
 
The most simple explanation as to why there is regular inconsistency between polling and vote results is election fraud inflating the results in favor of republicans.
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Certainly wouldn't dismiss that explanation. But there are definitely others to consider. And the reality is probably a combination of various factors.

Another possibility is that pollsters aren't that good at predicting who exactly will vote. I honestly believe that a huge part of the reason that Clinton seriously underperformed the polling is that lots of people were so confident that she'd win, they didn't bother to go vote themselves. How can pollsters accurately control for "overconfidence"?
Tom
 
Gun Nut said:
The most simple explanation as to why there is regular inconsistency between polling and vote results is election fraud inflating the results in favor of republicans.
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Polling and junk calls in general have gotten out of hand. Any poll with a low response rate is probably inaccurate. The error margins they give assume the people they reach are representative--but they clearly aren't.
 
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