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2022 Midterm Elections - Results and Post Mortem

blastula said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
The Dems don’t have the Senate yet. Georgia is likely going to a runoff unless mail-ins pull heavy to Warnock. NV looks lost, the Dems need Georgia, poor Georgian streamers.
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NV has lots of mail ins left, far from over.
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If the mail-ins balance the way the NY Times has modelled it, the Dems gain one seat, the GOP loses one, and the GOP is tossed to the curb in the Senate.
 
blastula said:
Very happy for Fetterman. Would have been too dispiriting if he lost over a disability irrelevant to the job. And really, fuck "Dr." Oz, what a dehumanizing, ugly campaign that fraud ran.
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Ditto to the above. I'm very happy that Doug Mastrion lost as well. Will be super excited if Kari Lake loses also.
 
Heartened to see the Democrats do so well in the midterms with inflation and an unpopular president. It speaks well for 2024. Further, people concerned about the state of our democracy polled well as important to voters.

I'd like to know what the fuck happened to Ohio. I can't blame gerrymandering for statewide races. Some time back I tried to pin it on population decline but couldn't make an argument for it. I mean, the way Vance beat Ryan... not even close in a race of a blue collar Dem against a lazy self-serving POS.

Prediction: I think DeSantis it going to push Trump out. The DoJ might help.
 
Looking at Walker in Georgia, he underperformed and overperformed counties compared to 2020. Warnock overperformed where it mattered.

And CNN was wrong, votes dropped in AZ, and Dobb's lead shrunk, she is up 4 pts in Maricopa. Biden had 2 pts and won.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Heartened to see the Democrats do so well in the midterms with inflation and an unpopular president. It speaks well for 2024. Further, people concerned about the state of our democracy polled well as important to voters.

I'd like to know what the fuck happened to Ohio. I can't blame gerrymandering for statewide races. Some time back I tried to pin it on population decline but couldn't make an argument for it. I mean, the way Vance beat Ryan... not even close in a race of a blue collar Dem against a lazy self-serving POS.

Prediction: I think DeSantis it going to push Trump out. The DoJ might help.
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As a reminder, DeSantis is 1000 times worse than Trump. Trump is a blithering fool. DeSantis is a right-wing fascist that got people killed in his state, and people are licking his boots for it. He is dangerous! He wouldn't be a fool for Putin or Kim, but he certainly is a danger to our democracy.
 
Okay, so we need to get something straight. In competitive races, Donald Trump is a loser. But this concentration on Trump is a MISTAKE. Trump is a self-perpetuating symptom of a disease that spread throughout the GOP last night, thanks in large part to gerrymandering making almost all of the House races a fait accompli. The cancer in the GOP is spreading. It hasn't metastasized in America yet, but it isn't far from doing so. The GOP elected last night is a darker, uglier GOP than it was. Trump or no Trump.

A gifted NY Times article on the issues we are being confronted with.
 
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Good that dual citizen and possible dual loyalty risk Dr Oz lost.
 
repoman said:
Good that dual citizen and possible dual loyalty risk Dr Oz lost.
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Yes, Dr. Oz's citizenship issue was definitely a problem. The idea of a guy from New Jersey sitting in a seat reserved for a Pennsylvanian Senator was definitely troubling.
 
scombrid said:
southernhybrid said:
I'm just relieved that there was no red wave. I didn't expect Stacey to win. It would have been like a miracle if she did. Despite my support of her, I think she ran a much better campaign in 2018, and the Republicans did an effectivel job of demonizing her this time around. Sure, there was likely a little bit of sexism in the mix, along with the usual Democratic voter apathy. Perhaps the biggest obstacle was that she ran against an incumbent, who despite some of his despicable policies, he never lied about the 2020 election and he didn't let Trump manipulate him into election denial. We will only be stuck with him for one more term. With the growing population in Georgia, the state might be a bit more blue in 2024. Hoping... :D
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All I know of Stacey was listening to her on the Maron podcast after the 2020 election. I was blown away by her knowledge, compassion, and optimism. I am saddened that people like her are fully rejected by the GOP in favor of clowns, assholes, and charlatans like Gaetz, Boebert, MTG, Walker, Oz, etc... Are there no honest and intelligent conservatives left?
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I agree that Stacey is an amazing, brilliant woman, who would have likely made a terrific governor for Georgia. Sadly, she wasn't able to motivate enough people to vote for her. The last time she ran, she visited all of the 159 counties in Georgia. I attended her rally in my county. It was inspiring. I think that really helped her last time, as people had the opportunity to meet her one to one. Of course, imo, her biggest obstacle this time was running against an incumbent. While I am not a fan of Kemp, he had high enough approval ratings to win.

I don't know what her plans are for the future, but she is so talented and experienced, I'm sure she has many options. Ironically, when she was in the Georgia Congress, she was respected by people on both sides of the aisle for her intelligence and willingness to compromise to get things done. Once she became a threat to the Republicans, they did everything they could to make her appear like an extremist, or a celebrity who had no interest in Georgia.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
The ultimate outcome is still not fully counted. The control of the House and the control of the Senate are not yet determined.
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To the letter of the law, no. But The Dems gained a seat in the Senate 50-49, there will be a runoff, however. If history repeats (like it seemed to do last night) Dems finish 51-49. The GOP won the House and will have a 15 to 25 seat majority. The Dems gained a couple state legislatures. And anti-abortion sentiments were discarded everywhere from California to Kentucky. GOP made gains, but nothing like the alt-right media empire were bragging about beforehand.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
And of course, there is always where the larger battles are fought, and the Democrats made modest gains here.

Michigan Legislature goes to Democrats, it is a clean sweep.

Minnesota Legislature goes full Democrat, it is a trifecta.
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Colorado goes full blue, so far. Bobblehead's race is still not called - it would be a real shocker if she lost in the blood red district.
 
AM Radio guy Michael Medved said that in 2008, or was it 2012. Perhaps they should become more inclusive. He doesn't do AM radio anymore I think.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
The ultimate outcome is still not fully counted. The control of the House and the control of the Senate are not yet determined.
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To the letter of the law, no. But The Dems gained a seat in the Senate 50-49, there will be a runoff, however. If history repeats (like it seemed to do last night) Dems finish 51-49.
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At this time, Fivethirtyeight live map puts the situation at 48-48 with four states still being counted:

Alaska (IRV, race between two republicans)
Georgia (runoff as nobody got 50%?)
Arizona (democrat incumbent has 5% lead)
Nevada (republican challenger has 3% lead)

Is there a reason to think that Nevada won't flip republican? If it does, then it'll be 50-50 again even if Warnock wins the Georgia runoff.
 
Elixir said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
And of course, there is always where the larger battles are fought, and the Democrats made modest gains here.

Michigan Legislature goes to Democrats, it is a clean sweep.

Minnesota Legislature goes full Democrat, it is a trifecta.
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Colorado goes full blue, so far. Bobblehead's race is still not called - it would be a real shocker if she lost in the blood red district.
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Pueblo County has about 20,000 votes remaining. NY Times thinks it'll edge in Boebert's favor. If that happens, she'll out as the winner. If it edges the other direction, it'll be real tight. Regardless, Boebert is in a fight for her political life.
 
Jayjay said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
The ultimate outcome is still not fully counted. The control of the House and the control of the Senate are not yet determined.
Click to expand...
To the letter of the law, no. But The Dems gained a seat in the Senate 50-49, there will be a runoff, however. If history repeats (like it seemed to do last night) Dems finish 51-49.
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At this time, Fivethirtyeight live map puts the situation at 48-48 with four states still being counted:

Alaska (IRV, race between two republicans)
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R, Murkowski will win.
Jayjay said:
Georgia (runoff as nobody got 50%?)
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Probably D in the end.
Jayjay said:
Arizona (democrat incumbent has 5% lead)
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D won this.
Jayjay said:
Nevada (republican challenger has 3% lead)

Is there a reason to think that Nevada won't flip republican? If it does, then it'll be 50-50 again even if Warnock wins the Georgia runoff.
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Yes, the mail-in ballots are expected to weigh heavily in favor of the Democrat candidate. It'll be close, but this is definitely within reach for D.
 
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