Another Fucking Mass Shooting At US School

[Derec]

What you hear might not be representative, but it seems to me too that the right has abandoned the WATC trope.

It is kind of ironic that after decades of mocking Helen Lovejoy types the faux-liberals became her.

Oh. Well, in that case … never mind.
We should probably look closer at the data though - might want to segregate out the 4 and under babybangers too.

I just did. CDC has a tool. This should be a link to my saved query (accidental, intentional self-inflicted and homicide deaths of minors by single ages for 2020), but if it doesn't work, see below.
Very few gun deaths are for young children. Most are teenagers, and among the teenagers the 17 year olds are 6x more likely to die by guns than 13 year olds.
Loren is correct. Most minors dying by guns are minors shooting at each other over some beef, like this case:
Atlanta bridge shooting victims were 12 and 15. The suspects are 15 and 16

Besides, the "4 and under" are most likely to be shot by a family member, not a deranged school shooter.

"Notes"    "Single-Year Ages"    "Single-Year Ages Code"    Deaths    Population    Crude Rate
    "< 1 year"    "0"    11    3735010    Unreliable
    "1 year"    "1"    17    3773884    Unreliable
    "2 years"    "2"    31    3853025    0.80
    "3 years"    "3"    36    3921526    0.92
    "4 years"    "4"    31    4017847    0.77
    "5 years"    "5"    24    4054336    0.59
    "6 years"    "6"    23    4040169    0.57
    "7 years"    "7"    24    4029753    0.60
    "8 years"    "8"    24    4034785    0.59
    "9 years"    "9"    18    4078668    Unreliable
    "10 years"    "10"    32    4074173    0.79
    "11 years"    "11"    50    4072994    1.23
    "12 years"    "12"    75    4200977    1.79
    "13 years"    "13"    104    4219921    2.46
    "14 years"    "14"    211    4186358    5.04
    "15 years"    "15"    340    4175920    8.14
    "16 years"    "16"    502    4187874    11.99
    "17 years"    "17"    665    4164893    15.97
"Total"                   2218    72822113    3.05
"---"
"Dataset: Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2020"
"Query Parameters:"
"ICD-10 113 Cause List: Accidental discharge of firearms (W32-W34); Intentional self-harm (suicide) by discharge of firearms"
"(X72-X74); Assault (homicide) by discharge of firearms (*U01.4,X93-X95)"
"Single-Year Ages: < 1 year; 1 year; 2 years; 3 years; 4 years; 5 years; 6 years; 7 years; 8 years; 9 years; 10 years; 11 years;"
"12 years; 13 years; 14 years; 15 years; 16 years; 17 years"
"Year/Month: 2020"
"Group By: Single-Year Ages"
"Show Totals: True"
"Show Zero Values: False"
"Show Suppressed: False"
"Calculate Rates Per: 100,000"
"Rate Options: Default intercensal populations for years 2001-2009 (except Infant Age Groups)"
"---"
"Help: See http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/help/ucd.html for more information."
"---"
"Query Date: Dec 13, 2022 9:28:44 PM"

 

[Derec]

No. It would aim for supernova

Guns are heavy, but not that heavy ...

 

[Derec]

This is even more bizarre when you consider a child in eastern Ukraine has less chance of dying by a bullet or shrapnel wound than a child in some parts of the glorious US

[citation needed]
Do you have some data from eastern Ukraine on that?

Also, when we talk about "children" we should not lump them in with teenagers.

 

[Derec]

As of 2020, more children die each year from gun violence than from car accidents. We do a lot of things to prevent car accidents and to make cars more safe: child safety seats, seat belts! speed limits, automobile design! traffic control! Lots of things.

This is lumping all minors together, not just children proper. When you get into teenagers, esp. above the age of 15, you get a lot of gang or other criminal activity which increases a chance of gun-death considerably. A 17 year old has a six times higher chance of dying by a gun than a 13 year old, and it's not because Salvador Ramos and Nicholas Cruz types predominately attack senior class home rooms.

How many of these numbers are by so-called "assault weapons"? How many are from school shootings like the ones in Uvalde or Sandy Hook?
We know that overall, only a small fraction of all gun homicides, and a minority of even mass shootings, is committed with a so-called "assault weapon". And even with those where an AR15 or similar was used, the perp could have switched to a handgun if his weapon of choice was not available due to the renewed ban.

I mean, what do you think would have happened had Salvador Ramos not have access to an AR15 style rifle? Would he have just shrugged and gone on with his life? Or would he used different weapons, perhaps two handguns, like the VT shooter Seung-Hui Cho? After all, he managed to kill 32 and wound another 17. Or take Columbine. The two perps managed to shoot up the school while the previous assault weapons ban was in effect.

 

[Toni]

I understand that change is hard and scary.

I'm fucking sick of the whine from conservatives who complain that people use 'what about the children' as a reason ...for anything. To spend money, to have a safe and healthy environment, to have safety measures in consumer goods. To limit the access of firearms in order to prevent deaths.

I hear the children argument more often from the left than the right.

As of 2020, more children die each year from gun violence than from car accidents. We do a lot of things to prevent car accidents and to make cars more safe: child safety seats, seat belts! speed limits, automobile design! traffic control! Lots of things.

What do we do to prevent children from dying from gunshot wounds? We talk.

Between 2000 and 2020, 31,780 children died from gunshot wounds.

Check the ages. You'll find most of those "children" are nearly adults--gangbangers.

FFS Loren! You must have ice in your veins to go along with the paucity if anything resembling data to go along with your willingness to simply shrug your shoulders at the deaths of school children.

How many children’s deaths is an acceptable number for you? By age group. Do you go by height and weight or age and grade level? Inversely proportionate? Are the deaths of 3 kindergarteners more or less tragic than the 17 year old valedictorian with a scholarship to Penn State. Or is it the other way around? Are two cheerleaders worth more or less than a quarterback or starting forward? If someone cheats on their math test or drops firecrackers in the toilet does that make their life more easily forfeit?

Or is the value of a fifth grader’s life measured by his neighborhood? His father’s profession?

I really want to know.

 

[Toni]

As of 2020, more children die each year from gun violence than from car accidents. We do a lot of things to prevent car accidents and to make cars more safe: child safety seats, seat belts! speed limits, automobile design! traffic control! Lots of things.

This is lumping all minors together, not just children proper. When you get into teenagers, esp. above the age of 15, you get a lot of gang or other criminal activity which increases a chance of gun-death considerably. A 17 year old has a six times higher chance of dying by a gun than a 13 year old, and it's not because Salvador Ramos and Nicholas Cruz types predominately attack senior class home rooms.

How many of these numbers are by so-called "assault weapons"? How many are from school shootings like the ones in Uvalde or Sandy Hook?
We know that overall, only a small fraction of all gun homicides, and a minority of even mass shootings, is committed with a so-called "assault weapon". And even with those where an AR15 or similar was used, the perp could have switched to a handgun if his weapon of choice was not available due to the renewed ban.

It is well known that teens, particularly male teens, engage in a lot of risk taking behavior. What tends to be forgotten or overlooked is the kids from certain families and with certain…complexions get a much lighter hand from the authorities than some less fortunately housed or complexioned.

 

[Derec]

It is well known that teens, particularly male teens, engage in a lot of risk taking behavior.

Which is why we should not lump teenagers and actual children together. Your link about "children" dying from gunshot wounds is disingenuous because it does lump them together.

What tends to be forgotten or overlooked is the kids from certain families and with certain…complexions get a much lighter hand from the authorities than some less fortunately housed or complexioned.

Major league BS. Do you think the 15 and 16 year old teenagers who shot and killed a 15 year old (intended target) and a 12 year old (friendly fire) would be treated with a "much lighter hand" if their complexions or families were different?

It is a fact that for homicides, the rate is very much race dependent. ~5x higher for blacks than for whites. Nothing to do with the lightness of hand. Just a few days ago in Atlanta a 77 year old was stabbed and murdered by a 23 year old who then stole her SUV. Do you really think he would have, what, been let go with a stern talking to if he had a different complexion or came from a different family?
Atlanta Police arrest suspect in connection to stabbing death of woman at Buckhead home

P.S.: You did not address my point about shooters simply switching to other weapons such as handguns if so-called "assault weapons" are banned again, as you demand.

 

[Derec]

FFS Loren! You must have ice in your veins to go along with the paucity if anything resembling data to go along with your willingness to simply shrug your shoulders at the deaths of school children.

I showed some data upthread where your numbers are disaggregated by age. Highlights: Close to a third of gun deaths of minors are 17 year old. Over a half are 16 or 17 years old.

How many children’s deaths is an acceptable number for you? By age group. Do you go by height and weight or age and grade level?

Well it can't be zero, because that number is not achievable, at least not without a totalitarian police state.

Are the deaths of 3 kindergarteners more or less tragic than the 17 year old valedictorian with a scholarship to Penn State.

Not what Loren was saying. He was saying that the 17 year old who is shot is far more likely to be a banger than a valedictorian.
School shootings get a lot of national coverage, but they are rare. Gang shootouts and the like are common, but are reported only locally.

Are two cheerleaders worth more or less than a quarterback or starting forward?

Depends on what they were up to. If either, for example, engaged in an armed robbery and was shot by police or the victim, then it's on them.

 

[Toni]

You haven’t answered: how many deaths is too many?

 

[Shadowy Man]

As of 2020, more children die each year from gun violence than from car accidents. We do a lot of things to prevent car accidents and to make cars more safe: child safety seats, seat belts! speed limits, automobile design! traffic control! Lots of things.

This is lumping all minors together, not just children proper. When you get into teenagers, esp. above the age of 15, you get a lot of gang or other criminal activity which increases a chance of gun-death considerably. A 17 year old has a six times higher chance of dying by a gun than a 13 year old, and it's not because Salvador Ramos and Nicholas Cruz types predominately attack senior class home rooms.

How many of these numbers are by so-called "assault weapons"? How many are from school shootings like the ones in Uvalde or Sandy Hook?
We know that overall, only a small fraction of all gun homicides, and a minority of even mass shootings, is committed with a so-called "assault weapon". And even with those where an AR15 or similar was used, the perp could have switched to a handgun if his weapon of choice was not available due to the renewed ban.

I mean, what do you think would have happened had Salvador Ramos not have access to an AR15 style rifle? Would he have just shrugged and gone on with his life? Or would he used different weapons, perhaps two handguns, like the VT shooter Seung-Hui Cho? After all, he managed to kill 32 and wound another 17. Or take Columbine. The two perps managed to shoot up the school while the previous assault weapons ban was in effect.

Oh well, if we can’t stop all violence why try stopping any at all?

If the pro-lifers had given in so easily they never would have overturned roe v wade.

 

[Tigers!]

This is lumping all minors together, not just children proper. When you get into teenagers, esp. above the age of 15, you get a lot of gang or other criminal activity which increases a chance of gun-death considerably. A 17 year old has a six times higher chance of dying by a gun than a 13 year old, and it's not because Salvador Ramos and Nicholas Cruz types predominately attack senior class home rooms.

How many of these numbers are by so-called "assault weapons"? How many are from school shootings like the ones in Uvalde or Sandy Hook?
We know that overall, only a small fraction of all gun homicides, and a minority of even mass shootings, is committed with a so-called "assault weapon". And even with those where an AR15 or similar was used, the perp could have switched to a handgun if his weapon of choice was not available due to the renewed ban.

When i refer to children I mean under 18.

Let's rephrase the argument to be "Too many children are dying from bullets or bullet fragments."

Lets avoid the inane and monumentally stupid discussion as to what gun was used. A BULLET killed those children. A bullet that should not have been fired.
I'll repeat what I said in post 1371 (with apologies to Loren)
Bloody hell Derec - what numbers of deaths is acceptable to you and others each year for the privilege of knaves and fools wandering around thinking they are king Dick?
If hundreds of needless and unnecessary deaths each year is an inadequate reason it still buries "we cannot do anything about it" whinge.

 

[Tigers!]

This is even more bizarre when you consider a child in eastern Ukraine has less chance of dying by a bullet or shrapnel wound than a child in some parts of the glorious US

[citation needed]
Do you have some data from eastern Ukraine on that?

The Govt of Ukraine occasionally releasing figures on children's death in Ukraine from all causes. it is far less than the gun deaths in the USA.
Barbos will help you with the grossly inflated Russian figures.

Also, when we talk about "children" we should not lump them in with teenagers.

 

[bilby]

Hint: Think-of-the-children arguments are almost always on the wrong side.

Hint: One of the times when they are not on the wrong side is when the hazard to the children is their actual death.

Think-of-the-children arguments are almost always about vague and subjective hazards, like "loss of innocence" or "causing nightmares", not "death from gunshot wounds".

I'm thinking more of the if-it-can-save-one-child arguments frequently put forth for things where the costs far exceed the benefits.

Oh, OK. Would you be able to enumerate the costs of licensing firearms, and explain how many children's lives would need to be saved in order to offset those (presumably massive) costs?

Perhaps as a follow-up, you could explain how (for example) Canada, has managed to struggle on against the massive costs imposed upon them by their gun regulations.

 

[Derec]

Oh well, if we can’t stop all violence why try stopping any at all?

Nobody says that we should not look for ways to reduce violence.

But being disingenuous about data, like lumping 17 year-olds with 7 year-olds is not the way to achieve much of anything.
Neither is pretending that banning "scary"-looking guns like AR15s will reduce overall gun death rates in any meaningful way.

 

[Derec]

When i refer to children I mean under 18.

Which is a mistake.

Let's rephrase the argument to be "Too many children are dying from bullets or bullet fragments."

Children are different from teenagers though. They should not be lumped together in order to inflate the numbers.

Lets avoid the inane and monumentally stupid discussion as to what gun was used. A BULLET killed those children. A bullet that should not have been fired.

Then why is the go-to solution for Dems always to take away people's AR15s?

Bloody hell Derec - what numbers of deaths is acceptable to you and others each year for the privilege of knaves and fools wandering around thinking they are king Dick?
If hundreds of needless and unnecessary deaths each year is an inadequate reason it still buries "we cannot do anything about it" whinge.

I do not think you can put a particular number on "acceptable deaths". At the same time, it is a fallacy to say that no price (literal or figurative) is too high to pay to prevent even one death of a child. Or a minor.

I also do not whinge. We can, and should, do something to reduce gun deaths. But we need to be honest about data. We need to be honest that easy solutions like a renewed AR15 ban will not do anything.

 

[Derec]

The Govt of Ukraine occasionally releasing figures on children's death in Ukraine from all causes. it is far less than the gun deaths in the USA.

Saying that data exist is not the same as providing data. You made a claim; back it up.

 

[bilby]

But being disingenuous about data, like claiming 17 year-olds aren't children because they make your numbers look bad...

FTFY.

The simple way to avoid children from being shot dead is to redefine them as adults.

Problem solved. Time to party.

 

[Toni]

Hint: Think-of-the-children arguments are almost always on the wrong side.

Hint: One of the times when they are not on the wrong side is when the hazard to the children is their actual death.

Think-of-the-children arguments are almost always about vague and subjective hazards, like "loss of innocence" or "causing nightmares", not "death from gunshot wounds".

I'm thinking more of the if-it-can-save-one-child arguments frequently put forth for things where the costs far exceed the benefits.

Oh, OK. Would you be able to enumerate the costs of licensing firearms, and explain how many children's lives would need to be saved in order to offset those (presumably massive) costs?

Perhaps as a follow-up, you could explain how (for example) Canada, has managed to struggle on against the massive costs imposed upon them by their gun regulations.

You don't get it. It's not Loren's child and the cost to institute sensible gun control, however small, would be exorbitant compared with the inconvenience of having to hear about the death of someone else's child.

 

[Derec]

FTFY.
The simple way to avoid children from being shot dead is to redefine them as adults.
Problem solved. Time to party.

They are not quite adults, but they are not children either. A 17 year old is not the same as a 7 year old, which is why almost a third of minors dead from guns are 17 and more than half are 16 or 17. Why is that? Because by that age, teens start engaging in crimes that might get them shot. They join gangs. They shoot each other.

And no, not problem solved. No party time. The problems are still there, but the problems are different. Lumping disparate age groups together is obscuring the issue. Not helping solve it.

 

[bilby]

The most ratified human rights convention in history is the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) (Unicef, 2005). The focus of the CRC is to give children protection, provision and participation rights. In the preamble, the CRC state that children are in need of special safeguards and care due to physical and mental immaturity (CRC, 1990, preamble). In other words, according to the CRC, children need someone to protect them and make decisions on their behalf, in their best interest.

Source

So what is the CRC definition of a child?

Article 1​

For the purposes of the present Convention, a child means every human being below the age of eighteen years unless under the law applicable to the child, majority is attained earlier.

To suggest that seventeen year olds are not children is to fly in the face of international law.

That the USA frequently denies children their right to be treated as children - the insane "tried as an adult" provision of US legal systems - is simply more evidence, if more were needed, that the USA is a third-world country in a Gucci belt.