Toni
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No your math and your grasp of reality are quite flawed.
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Another Trump Rape Surfaces
- Thread starter Cheerful Charlie
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No your math and your grasp of reality are quite flawed.
laughing dog
Contributor
Wrong. Your requires the additional assumption that 1 in 4 have only been assaulted once. And since at least one of the assumptions is false and the other one (independence) is likely to be untrue, that makes your math completely irrelevant. Since a number of posters have pointed out that the 1 in 4 refers to 1 in 4 woman being assaulted at least once (not only once as your math requires), it makes your math stupid as well.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
Let's have some more fun with math. For some reason I can't seem to find any estimates on the percentage of men that commit sexual assault. LOT's of stats about their victims, but, so far, I can't seem to find anything that says X% of men commit Y.
I have been able to find percentages on college males, however, so those will suffice:
Because self-reporting of criminal behavior is notoriously low, we can comfortably take the 24% total from the 1987 survey and add another 10% at the very least for a general estimate as to how many men commit varying degrees of severity of sexual assault--ranging from "unwanted sexual contact" to penetrative rape--at 34%.
There are around 150,000,0000 men in the US, so, using the college numbers as an indicator, that's about 51,000,000 who are full-on active predators; i.e., those who have already committed some form of sexual assault since the age of 14.
Further, we have this to consider:
From this we have the fact that a certain large percentage--two-thirds--of college rapists rape four or more times per year. Now, some may argue that college affords more opportunities for predators, but that's irrelevant to intent.
So, two-thirds of the 51M that commit some form of assault is about 34 Million men in America that would commit at least four or more rapes (full-on penetrative) per year, so it's safe to assume the number of "lesser" assaults would be much much higher for those other 17 million, so let's say it's on the order of five times more? Per year.
Again, at least in regard to intent, if not execution. Iow, if the circumstances present themselves, 2/3's of active predator males would rape four or more times, while 1/3 would sexually assault (in a "lesser" severity sense) twenty or more times. Per year.
So, again, conservatively, 34 M times 4 would be 136 M full-on rapes per year; 17 M times 20 would be 340 M "lesser" severe assaults per year for a grand total of some 476 Million sexual assaults--potentially, as a condition of very general estimates on the lowest end of the scale and in the sense of the "pool" of possible incidents just as a factor of active predators and their intent--per year.
Now throw into that pool a woman like Carroll, who swims in the higher risk end of that pool (i.e., she is a celebrity who worked and lived primarily in large cities with higher percentages of such predators and interviewed/mingled with people in positions of power and industries that would attract such predators, etc).
Iow, swimming in the deep end of the 476 million yearly potential sexual assaults pool for seventy five years, only having a list of 21 "hideous men" (i.e., predators that she met along that way) is nothing.
I have been able to find percentages on college males, however, so those will suffice:
Because self-reporting of criminal behavior is notoriously low, we can comfortably take the 24% total from the 1987 survey and add another 10% at the very least for a general estimate as to how many men commit varying degrees of severity of sexual assault--ranging from "unwanted sexual contact" to penetrative rape--at 34%.
There are around 150,000,0000 men in the US, so, using the college numbers as an indicator, that's about 51,000,000 who are full-on active predators; i.e., those who have already committed some form of sexual assault since the age of 14.
Further, we have this to consider:
From this we have the fact that a certain large percentage--two-thirds--of college rapists rape four or more times per year. Now, some may argue that college affords more opportunities for predators, but that's irrelevant to intent.
So, two-thirds of the 51M that commit some form of assault is about 34 Million men in America that would commit at least four or more rapes (full-on penetrative) per year, so it's safe to assume the number of "lesser" assaults would be much much higher for those other 17 million, so let's say it's on the order of five times more? Per year.
Again, at least in regard to intent, if not execution. Iow, if the circumstances present themselves, 2/3's of active predator males would rape four or more times, while 1/3 would sexually assault (in a "lesser" severity sense) twenty or more times. Per year.
So, again, conservatively, 34 M times 4 would be 136 M full-on rapes per year; 17 M times 20 would be 340 M "lesser" severe assaults per year for a grand total of some 476 Million sexual assaults--potentially, as a condition of very general estimates on the lowest end of the scale and in the sense of the "pool" of possible incidents just as a factor of active predators and their intent--per year.
Now throw into that pool a woman like Carroll, who swims in the higher risk end of that pool (i.e., she is a celebrity who worked and lived primarily in large cities with higher percentages of such predators and interviewed/mingled with people in positions of power and industries that would attract such predators, etc).
Iow, swimming in the deep end of the 476 million yearly potential sexual assaults pool for seventy five years, only having a list of 21 "hideous men" (i.e., predators that she met along that way) is nothing.
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Elixir
Made in America
Leaves 12 million Trump voters unaccounted for...
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
Indeed, and I forgot to multiply the 476 M per year potential pool by, let's say 50 years to compensate for population variance over the years Carroll has been alive, so in her lifetime the "pool" of potential sexaul assaults of varrying degrees of severity is upwards of, let's call it 25 Trillion incidents?
Iow, Carroll (and any woman in the US her age or younger) has been swimming her entire life in the deep end of a pool of (conservatively), 25 Trillion sexual assault incidents being committed or intended to be committed. Again, on the low low side, so it's really more along the lines of 50 trillion[/i] or more potential/actual incidents.
Imagine a mine field with 50 Trillion mines hidden pretty much anywhere you'd normally step throughout your life.
So, again, the idea that 21 out of those 50 Trillion happened to her is by no means incredulous.
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Elixir
Made in America
Especially when the accused is the self declared Minelayer In Chief.
The answer to a math error is to show the corrected calculation, not keep saying it's wrong.
Don2 (Don1 Revised)
Contributor
So if someone says x=3 and someone else proves x != 3, it's not a proof that x != 3. Hmmm...you seem to be wrong.
But where's the proof that x != 3? All they are doing is saying I'm wrong, not showing it.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
I have abundantly shown it.
laughing dog
Contributor
You are mistaken. A numbet of posters including me, have pointed out logic errors. There is insufficient informstion to do any calculation.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
I wouldn't go that far, but, yes, insufficient to do any kind of specific or, I guess, exhaustive calculation, of course. But even with the estimates and ranges I provided, we're talking about a pool of tens of trillions of "land mines" that any person could easily trip multiple times, particularly if they lived the lifestyle Carroll had.
Toni
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Come again??? What kind of ‘lifestyle’ is it that you think Carroll has lived? How different do you think her experiences are from those of most women—famous names and places aside.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
As I've stated, which you might want to review, before thinking I've said something untoward. Life style, not lifestyle, meaning she lived and worked in large cities and had a job that meant she met many different people over her entire life and therefore had a higher risk and greater likelihood of interacting with multiple predators than if she lived in the same small town of 500 people all of her life or the like.
And the reason I pointed that out is to underscore to Loren and others that there is nothing incredulous about someone having lived and worked in those conditions having met 21 "hideous men." Just living in New York the average person would be exposed to hundreds of thousands of predators, so the idea that one person would have encountered 21 predators straining credulity--which is what Loren and others have been arguing-- is not in the slightest incredulous.
Hell, living in a small town of only 500 wouldn't in any way mean that having met 21 "hideous men" from that small town is any less credulous.
Toni
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Having grown up in a town of a few thousand, surrounded by farmland, I can assure you that there are plenty of hideous men and boys in small town, rural America. One can be sexually assaulted by someone in a field of alphalfa as well as in an elevator in NYC it the dressing room in Bergdorf’s.
Growing up, I heard about the dangers of the big cities all the time. I spent a good number of years living in very large metropolitan areas, traveling deep into the bowels of the cities themselves on a daily basis. I didn’t have nearly the issues with men there that I did in small town flyover middle America.
They just weren’t rich and famous.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
Once again, you will get no argument out of me in that regard. The point was to merely make it clear that meeting only 21 "hideous men" in anyone's life--let alone someone like Carroll who lived and worked in high risk cities where "hideous men" are literally everywhere you look--was by no means straining credulity as others itt have argued.
But, yes, absolutely, a town of a few thousand--or less than 500 could--just as easily contain more than merely 21 such predators.
indeed, if we extrapolated the college percentages I presented previously, then a town that had just 100 men in it, 50 of them would have committed some form of sexaul assault and 25 would have raped someone at least four times in a year. So it wouldn't even strain credulity that a woman growing up in such a town her entire life could easily have encountered 21 "hideous men."
Toni
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Especially since most women and girls are assaulted by someone they know.
You said I was ignoring the possibility that some were raped more than once--except I wasn't. Rather, I was showing what the probability was of multiple attacks, assuming they are independent.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
I did not (that was LD) and regardless that has nothing to do with what I showed subsequently.