Another Trump Rape Surfaces

[Derec]

No, I did not say probabilities are not additive, what I said was that you are treating them as if the coincidences are additive to find ONE narrative. You have MULTIPLE narratives.

So? I do not propose to know which narrative is true. Any of them could be true, including that she was really raped by Trump, but my point is that we do not know what happened, if anything, and these other narratives provide a great deal of doubt.

P(A) AND P(B) = 0, because they are mutually exclusive, i.e. you contradicted yourself.

I never claimed they were both true, so I did not contradict myself. They are both possibilities though.

You can try to claim that now you are saying, well, at least one narrative is likely to be true which is how you are changing your goalposts, but you did not notice the bizarre "theories" you were posting contradicted each other.

Again, I never claimed what you call "bizarre theories" were all true at the same time. So I am not shifting goalposts. Rather, you are knocking down straw men.

Haha, pictures of random black people. So predictable.

Sarah may have code switching and blaccent down pat, but she is still white. Don2 fail.

Allegedly, she told two friends about it after it happened, which outside a court of law provides at least some probability that your claims about Bergdorf's are much less likely. So, it's not ZERO EVIDENCE. You just don't like it.

Hearsay is not evidence. Specifically there is no evidence she told them at the time.

Since he admitted it, it's likely to have happened to several, maybe tens of women. So, when tens of women come out, it adds to the likelihood they each could be telling the truth. So, this is also EVIDENCE.

Not really. As I have been saying, it being public knowledge can inspire copycats to make up bogus accusations.

You can't deal with evidence you don't like though because you just want to fling shit against the wall.

If Carroll wanted to have some evidence of her accusations, she would have reported it back in 1995. Or is that 1996?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I remember who played at the local amphitheater the night my wife and I got married. I remember the huge deluge of rain right after we got into the cars. I remember calling my wife and company to let them know a huge storm was coming and they had to fly to beat it. I remember getting a night time photo taken with us next to the dam. I remember the cake. I remember the drinks we had. I remember where everyone sat at dinner.

But to be honest, I keep needing to remind myself whether it was 2008 or 2009.

 

[Elixir]

Any of them could be true, including that she was really raped by Trump, but my point is that we do not know what happened

Maybe San Francisco Bay is made out of grape juice.
Maybe Obama raped her. We don't know. Yeah, anything is possible.

But the overwhelming probability considering all the public evidence, is that Trump assaulted her (among numerous others).
The chances that The President is not a serial sexual predator are next to nil. About as likely as finding SF Bay full of grape juice.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You know what would be a thousand times more of a coincidence?
An innocent person being accused of sexual assault (or rape) by 17 different women.

Generally you would be right. However, in this case there are two special factors at work:

1) He's a major public figure. Public figures tend to draw bogus rape reports.

2) He has a reputation for improper sexual conduct. That will increase the number of bogus reports. Also, reports--true or not--will tend to cause bogus reports. The events are not independent.

Thus, while 17 reports makes it likely there is a problem I would not consider it conclusive.

So how many reports would it take to make it 'conclusive' to you? Alternatively: how many male witnesses?

Numbers aren't enough in a situation like this. What they have to substantiate the claims means a lot more to me. As far as I'm concerned Ford proved her case against Kavanaugh.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

1) He's a major public figure. Public figures tend to draw bogus rape reports.

2) He has a reputation for improper sexual conduct. That will increase the number of bogus reports. Also, reports--true or not--will tend to cause bogus reports. The events are not independent.Thus, while 17 reports makes it likely there is a problem I would not consider it conclusive.

3) He claims to grab women by the pussy without their consent. That HAS to cause even more reports, right? Seems that the only thing that doesn't contribute to the number of reports, is a history of actual rape.

I have no doubt he's guilty of sexual assault many times over. Whether that translates to rape I still consider unproven.

You're saying that if someone is able to generate enough of a horrible reputation for rapes and sexual assaults by raping and assaulting women, they should be immune from prosecution because their reputation will always precede them. The more of a history of sexual abuse, the higher the bar for "conclusive", right?

I'm saying that an unsubstantiated claim made long after the fact isn't enough. If they are going to make the claim long after I want evidence. Ford met this burden, most of the claims are he-said/she-said.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

1) He's a major public figure. Public figures tend to draw bogus rape reports.

Can you support the highlighted claim with evidence and facts? Or is this just another rhetorical hail Mary trope?

To start, can you please name all the public figures that you had in your mind when you said this, who have, say, more than 10 accusations of rape against them that have been shown to be bogus?


.
.
.

Or, tell you what. Name ONE.

The information is hard to find because the police usually keep them quiet until there is substantiation because they know most are bogus.

However, I do recall one (can't recall the target, though) locally--turns out the whole thing was part of an extortion plot. The woman and her boyfriend ended up charged.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Here are some unsettling statistics:

View attachment 22196

Over half of all Americans, evidently, have either been sexually assaulted, or know someone who has or “prefer not to say” (which basically means “yes”).

Regardless, with THAT high of a percentage it is an absolute guarantee that there are a significant percentage who have experienced numerous attacks in varying degrees of severity.

Note in particular how evenly spread it is among age groups.

Iow, in no way do 21 “hideous men” met over one woman’s entire seventy-five year lifespan stretch credulity.

Math check time!

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4. 21 times? That's .25^21, roughly 1 in 4 trillion. There's a 1 in 1,000 chance that such a woman exists. Your chart is showing about a 60% chance that a woman has been a victim or knows someone who is a victim--but since the two categories are mixed we can't draw any conclusions about how many are victims.

Note, also, the age data that you pointed out. The odds of knowing a victim don't go up with age--which would imply most of those assaults occurred when the women were not older than 29. This makes the idea of one woman being victimized 21 times even less likely.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

To start, can you please name all the public figures that you had in your mind when you said this, who have, say, more than 10 accusations of rape against them that have been shown to be bogus?


.
.
.

Or, tell you what. Name ONE.

The information is hard to find...

Then how did you manage to make the claim: "Public figures tend to draw bogus rape reports" if the information is hard to find. You either found it, or just kind of winged it, as you are known to do. b

...because the police usually keep them quiet until there is substantiation because they know most are bogus.

Voila! I can't demonstrate, which is clearly evidence that not only are there claims, but they have to be bogus because I can't find them to tell you about them.

However, I do recall one (can't recall the target, though) locally--turns out the whole thing was part of an extortion plot. The woman and her boyfriend ended up charged.

One... wow!

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Here are some unsettling statistics:

View attachment 22196

Over half of all Americans, evidently, have either been sexually assaulted, or know someone who has or “prefer not to say” (which basically means “yes”).

Regardless, with THAT high of a percentage it is an absolute guarantee that there are a significant percentage who have experienced numerous attacks in varying degrees of severity.

Note in particular how evenly spread it is among age groups.

Iow, in no way do 21 “hideous men” met over one woman’s entire seventy-five year lifespan stretch credulity.

Math check time!

If only it were.

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4.

Directly contradicted by the above poll. Well over half, if you include the "prefer not to say," but at least 1 in 2, not 1 in 4.

21 times?

No, 21 "hideous men" met. The incidents she listed varied in severity.

That's .25^21, roughly 1 in 4 trillion.

What the fuck is wrong with you? I didn't say that EVERY SINGLE WOMAN had 21 incidents. I very clearly and specifically stated: "with that high of a percentage it is an absolute guarantee that there are a significant percentage who have experienced numerous attacks in varying degrees of severity."

There's a 1 in 1,000 chance that such a woman exists.

There are 160 million women in the US. If we just cut that in half (the half that reported either having been assaulted or know someone who was), that's 80 million. Even taking your 1 in 1,000, that's 80,000 women who could have 21 or more incidents of varying degrees of severity. Aka, a significant percentage.

Your chart is showing about a 60% chance that a woman has been a victim or knows someone who is a victim--but since the two categories are mixed we can't draw any conclusions about how many are victims.

We don't need to, since the standard is merely credulity in there being at least 1 (or, as you put it 1 in 1000) having experienced numerous incidents/"hideous men" in her seventy five years on the planet.

Note, also, the age data that you pointed out.

If only you would.

The odds of knowing a victim don't go up with age--which would imply most of those assaults occurred when the women were not older than 29.

Where the fuck are you getting any of that nonsense from the poll? For all you know, anyone over 65 is referring to incidents that happened to them or a friend at that age, not forty years ago.

Regardless, note the findings of the study summarized here about college-aged rapists (emphasis mine):

The researchers documented approximately 2,071 sexual assaults -- of those, roughly 950 assaults, or about 46 percent of the incidents, were committed by students who admitted to raping 10 or more times.

If one college kid can rape "10 or more times" while they were in college, ffs, why would a seventy five year old woman having related 21 "hideous men" in her life strain credulity?

 

[laughing dog]

Here are some unsettling statistics:

View attachment 22196

Over half of all Americans, evidently, have either been sexually assaulted, or know someone who has or “prefer not to say” (which basically means “yes”).

Regardless, with THAT high of a percentage it is an absolute guarantee that there are a significant percentage who have experienced numerous attacks in varying degrees of severity.

Note in particular how evenly spread it is among age groups.

Iow, in no way do 21 “hideous men” met over one woman’s entire seventy-five year lifespan stretch credulity.

Math check time!

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4. 21 times? That's .25^21, roughly 1 in 4 trillion.

Logic check time. The 1 in 4 has been a victim of at least one sexual assault. So your arithmetic fails on that alone. Moreover, even if 1 out of 4 had been a victim of only one sexual assault, it makes no sense to treat the assaults as independent events.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Here are some more unsettling statistics

The results, released in a report Wednesday, show that 77 percent of women had experienced verbal sexual harassment, and 51 percent had been sexually touched without their permission. About 41 percent said they had been sexually harassed online, and 27 percent said they had survived sexual assault.

Note that Carroll related stories of being sexually touched without her permission as well as stories of more severe contact (i.e., penetration), so she was including in her list of 21 "most hideous men" in her life, those who molested her but did not necessarily penetrate her vagina (including the very first incident that I didn't relate, but she did; where she was molested, but not penetrated).

So, again, the extent of the problem is way the fuck up there for well over 80 million women (in America alone) and in no way strains credulity that at least one among them had been assaulted in varying degrees numerous times throughout her seventy five years.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Then how did you manage to make the claim: "Public figures tend to draw bogus rape reports" if the information is hard to find. You either found it, or just kind of winged it, as you are known to do. b

...because the police usually keep them quiet until there is substantiation because they know most are bogus.

Voila! I can't demonstrate, which is clearly evidence that not only are there claims, but they have to be bogus because I can't find them to tell you about them.

However, I do recall one (can't recall the target, though) locally--turns out the whole thing was part of an extortion plot. The woman and her boyfriend ended up charged.

One... wow!

Extrapolating to the country that would be 150 proven extortion cases.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If only it were.

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4.

Directly contradicted by the above poll. Well over half, if you include the "prefer not to say," but at least 1 in 2, not 1 in 4.

Earth to Koyaanisqatsi: Check what that poll is about! Victims or knew someone who was a victim.

21 times?

No, 21 "hideous men" met. The incidents she listed varied in severity.

That's .25^21, roughly 1 in 4 trillion.

What the fuck is wrong with you? I didn't say that EVERY SINGLE WOMAN had 21 incidents. I very clearly and specifically stated: "with that high of a percentage it is an absolute guarantee that there are a significant percentage who have experienced numerous attacks in varying degrees of severity."

There's a 1 in 1,000 chance that such a woman exists.

There are 160 million women in the US. If we just cut that in half (the half that reported either having been assaulted or know someone who was), that's 80 million. Even taking your 1 in 1,000, that's 80,000 women who could have 21 or more incidents of varying degrees of severity. Aka, a significant percentage.

Earth to Koyaanisqatsi: You still are not understanding anything. I didn't say 1 in 1,000 women. I said 1 in 4 trillion women and from that drew the conclusion that there is only a .1% chance there is someone who had 21 such experiences. (Obviously, this doesn't consider non-random distribution. The victim of a sex trafficker might have experienced this.)

Your chart is showing about a 60% chance that a woman has been a victim or knows someone who is a victim--but since the two categories are mixed we can't draw any conclusions about how many are victims.

We don't need to, since the standard is merely credulity in there being at least 1 (or, as you put it 1 in 1000) having experienced numerous incidents/"hideous men" in her seventy five years on the planet.

Reread what I said. Quit trying to make insane corrections to it.

Note, also, the age data that you pointed out.

If only you would.

The odds of knowing a victim don't go up with age--which would imply most of those assaults occurred when the women were not older than 29.

Where the fuck are you getting any of that nonsense from the poll? For all you know, anyone over 65 is referring to incidents that happened to them or a friend at that age, not forty years ago.

And they forgot about earlier incidents??? If any substantial portion of the assaults were past age 29 we would see the percentages go up over time.

Regardless, note the findings of the study summarized here about college-aged rapists (emphasis mine):

The researchers documented approximately 2,071 sexual assaults -- of those, roughly 950 assaults, or about 46 percent of the incidents, were committed by students who admitted to raping 10 or more times.

If one college kid can rape "10 or more times" while they were in college, ffs, why would a seventy five year old woman having related 21 "hideous men" in her life strain credulity?

Objection: Irrelevant, has no bearing on the issue. The distribution of rapists has absolutely nothing to do with how many times a woman was raped.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Here are some unsettling statistics:

View attachment 22196

Over half of all Americans, evidently, have either been sexually assaulted, or know someone who has or “prefer not to say” (which basically means “yes”).

Regardless, with THAT high of a percentage it is an absolute guarantee that there are a significant percentage who have experienced numerous attacks in varying degrees of severity.

Note in particular how evenly spread it is among age groups.

Iow, in no way do 21 “hideous men” met over one woman’s entire seventy-five year lifespan stretch credulity.

Math check time!

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4. 21 times? That's .25^21, roughly 1 in 4 trillion.

Logic check time. The 1 in 4 has been a victim of at least one sexual assault. So your arithmetic fails on that alone. Moreover, even if 1 out of 4 had been a victim of only one sexual assault, it makes no sense to treat the assaults as independent events.

And why shouldn't they be treated as basically independent?

 

[Rhea]

Math check time!

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4.

Reality check time. Why do you assume all these women were only attacked once in their lives?

If you ask me "Have I ever been sexually assaulted," My answer is "yes."
You didn't ask how many times.
That number is 3

If you ask how many hideous men I have known, that number jumps to include those who harassed and threatened.

Your math is stupid and privileged.

 

[Rhea]

To start, can you please name all the public figures that you had in your mind when you said this, who have, say, more than 10 accusations of rape against them that have been shown to be bogus?


.
.
.

Or, tell you what. Name ONE.

The information is hard to find because the police usually keep them quiet until there is substantiation because they know most are bogus.

However, I do recall one (can't recall the target, though) locally--turns out the whole thing was part of an extortion plot. The woman and her boyfriend ended up charged.

Seriously, Loren? You claim that this "TENDS TO HAPPEN" and you didn't even have knowledge of multiple instances of it? Just assuming it must because... because??? That's pathetic.

 

[laughing dog]

Logic check time. The 1 in 4 has been a victim of at least one sexual assault. So your arithmetic fails on that alone. Moreover, even if 1 out of 4 had been a victim of only one sexual assault, it makes no sense to treat the assaults as independent events.

And why shouldn't they be treated as basically independent?

First, thank you for the tacit acknowledge that your math failed based because the 1 out of 4 is for at least one sexual assault.

Second, your math only works for the case where one asks what is the probability of 21 assault victims out of a sample of 21 when the probability of being assaulted once is 1 out of 4. The probabilty of 1 out of 4 cannot be used to adduce the probabilty of finding someone assaulted 21 times without more information.

Third, women who are assault that many times tend to have been assaulted by the same person(s), so the assaults are not independent.

All in all, your analysis is bogus.

 

[repoman]

Derec, want to get your rage out? Go here...

https://www.reddit.com/r/pussypassdenied/

Madness

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

You still are not understanding anything

I understand that you are terrible at math and are desperately trying to discredit the notion that a seventy five year old woman--who lived and travelled the world throughout her career interviewing and meeting and working with thousands of different people--could have easily met hundreds of "Hideous Men" let alone a mere 21, who, in turn, sexually assaulted her to various degrees of severity.

Thus, calculating the probabilities for Carroll (or any person), would be about how many people she had met/worked with in her seventy five years--and where she met them/lived/worked--combined with the percentages of men who sexually harass or assault in those areas. Iow, if she lived and worked in large cities (like New York, LA, Chicago, etc), then that would make it much more likely that she would meet or work with or otherwise interact with a larger number of sexual predators than if she just lived in one small town in Indiana her whole life.

The first experience she mentions was as a 7 year old, when the son of family friends (also 7 or 8) shoved things up her vagina. The next incident (chronologically) is being molested by her Girl Scout camp director when she was 12 (after having won a beauty contest no less). When she was a freshman in college (a notorious age/institution where women are targeted), she managed to get away before she was raped. The other three incidents mentioned were her first boss (in Chicago), who used her as a pawn in his disastrous marriage/divorce, Les Moonves in Los Angeles (who assaulted her in an elevator after they had spent over an hour talking about him) and Trump who allegedly flirted with her--at a time when she was well known as a local celebrity--and followed her into a dressing room in New York.

Iow, right there we have at least six instances that are all perfectly plausible accounts in and of themselves--an unwanted childhood exploration between kids; a trusted camp director turning out to be a molester; a freshman/college rape attempt; a boss in Chicago in the sixties using her to get back at his estranged wife; two notorious sexual predators in LA and NY; etc.--due entirely to the fact that her life/career put her in certain locations/circumstances.

I haven't read her book, but here's what she said in regard to her list of 21 hideous men:

Now, about this Most Hideous Men of My Life List: It is a list of the 21 most revolting scoundrels I have ever met. I started it in October 2017, the day Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey published their Harvey Weinstein bombshells in the New York Times. As the riotous, sickening stories of #MeToo surged across the country, I, like many women, could not help but be reminded of certain men in my own life. When I began, I was not sure which among all the foul harassers, molesters, traducers, swindlers, stranglers, and no-goods I’ve known were going to make the final accounting. I considered Matt Lauer, Bill O’Reilly, and the giant dingleberry Charlie Rose, all guys whose TV shows I was on many times and who made headlines during the rise of #MeToo. But in the end, they do not make my Hideous List.

Hunter S. Thompson … now, there’s a good candidate. I know. I wrote his biography. Does Hunter, the greatest degenerate of his generation, who kept yelling, “Off with your pants!” as he sliced the leggings from my body with a long knife in his hot tub, make the list? Naw.

And if having my pants hacked off by a man lit to the eyebrows with acid, Chivas Regal, Champagne, grass, Chartreuse, Dunhills, cocaine, and Dove Bars does not make the list — because to me there is a big difference between an “adventure” and an “attack” — who, in God’s name, does make my Hideous List?

After almost two years of drawing and redrawing my list, I’ve come to realize that, though my hideosity bar is high, my criteria are a little cockeyed. It is a gut call. I am like Justice Potter Stewart. I just know a hideous man when I see one. And I have seen plenty. For 26 years, I have been writing the “Ask E. Jean” column in Elle, and for 26 years, no matter what problems are driving women crazy — their careers, wardrobes, love affairs, children, orgasms, finances — there comes a line in almost every letter when the cause of the correspondent’s quagmire is revealed. And that cause is men.

Viz.: the man who thinks 30 seconds of foreplay is “enough,” the man who cheats on his wife, the man who passes women over for promotion, the man who steals his girlfriend’s credit cards, the man who keeps 19 guns in the basement, the man who tells his co-worker she “talks too much in meetings,” the man who won’t bathe, the man who beats his girlfriend’s dog, the man who takes his female colleagues’ ideas, the man who tries to kill his rich wife by putting poison in her shampoo. Every woman, whether consciously or not, has a catalogue of the hideous men she’s known.

As it turns out, a Hideous Man marks practically every stage of my life. And so, Reader, from this cavalcade of 21 assholes, I am selecting a few choice specimens. One or two may not be pleasant for you to read about, I apologize.

So, again, it's about the hideous men she's met, not necessarily about 21 times she had been raped. Not to mention the fact that, typically, when someone is presenting examples, they usually present a spectrum (as she did), where different degrees of severity (for lack of a better word) have occurred.

Iow, we can judge from when she says "a few choice specimens" and "one or two" may not be pleasant to read about, that she's selected precisely that; a spectrum of incidents that range in severity.

Iow, just like the percentages I provided previously, where over half of all women in the US claimed to have been the victim of unwanted touching without their permission and upwards of 30% claimed that they personally had survived at least one sexual assault in their lives, that Carroll likewise is describing and including comparatively differing instances.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Math check time!

The highest number we have for the % of women who are the victim of sexual assault is 1 in 4.

Reality check time. Why do you assume all these women were only attacked once in their lives?

If you ask me "Have I ever been sexually assaulted," My answer is "yes."
You didn't ask how many times.
That number is 3

If you ask how many hideous men I have known, that number jumps to include those who harassed and threatened.

Your math is stupid and privileged.

My math is fine, your math is irrelevant to the issue.

Assuming assaults are independent if 1 in 4 have been assaulted then 1 in 16 have been assaulted twice, 1 in 64 have been assaulted 3 times and so on.