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Breakdown In Civil Order

Oleg

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I don't see any evidence that you, well, have a point, though.

My point is that violent criminals are released early or no bail and go on to commit devastating acts of violence on the public. It’s happening quite frequently here in Los Angeles but also other major cities.
Devastating acts of violence. Devastating? Hyperbole much?

How often are violent criminals actually released early and commit serious crimes? Probably not too often. Yes, it likely happens, but to the point that we are going to suggest it is endemic in our society? No, it isn't. The truth is, outside of Seattle, crime has recently risen and dropped... depending on the crimes one looks at, including California. Some violent crimes are up, some aren't. We see this broadly across the country (red and blue). But some want to just point at certain crimes and yell the sky is falling because of the Dems (...and Gov. Newsom) all the while rural murder rate is up 25%.
We do have a catch-and-release problem. The problem is that we went a bit too far in bail reform. I agree with the basic concept--we had a problem where being stuck in jail without being able to afford bail ended up being the de-facto punishment in many cases and note that since that's before the trial there was no determination of guilt.

Unfortunately, going to a zero-bail system means that repeat offenders stay out of jail until trial--and the longer the period between offense and punishment the less deterrence there is.

What I would like to see is a middle ground: zero-bail until you violate it or reoffend. If you're out on zero-bail and are arrested for something else go back to the old system. If you fail to show up when you're supposed to there is a rebuttable presumption that you can't be trusted and you don't get zero-bail in the future. (Not a certainty--things happen. People fail to get notifications of date changes, transportation breakdowns happen etc. Not everybody has money for a taxi when the car doesn't go, you don't even have that option if there was an accident... Last night I was watching a presentation by a local mountaineering group--they got tied up by the police for hours because they found a freshly-dead body in the wilderness. Most of the time when us backcountry guys find a body there's no questions because the body has obviously been there for a while, but in this case it was less than one hour--less time than it took search and rescue to get there.)
A reasoned poistion, and if our system were otherwise just and fair, I think it would be the best course of action.
Yes. What’s frustrating is that some on the progressive left want to give offenders endless chances resulting in higher crime and less public order. Give a second chance, sure. If a person still keeps offending, that’s that.
 

lostone

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What's also frustrating is that the failed war on drugs leads to so much crime and that no one will do anything about it.
 

Elixir

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What's also frustrating is that the failed war on drugs leads to so much crime and that no one will do anything about it.

NORML started in 1970. A year earlier I was arrested for being in a car where marijuana was found (not my car or pot).
Almost exactly 50 years later, where I live now, if you were out driving around you and were stopped by a cop, you could get out of the ticket (curfew violation) by telling him you were going to buy some pot.
Pretty glacial, but it's movement!
 

bilby

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I don't see any evidence that you, well, have a point, though.

My point is that violent criminals are released early or no bail and go on to commit devastating acts of violence on the public. It’s happening quite frequently here in Los Angeles but also other major cities.
Devastating acts of violence. Devastating? Hyperbole much?

How often are violent criminals actually released early and commit serious crimes? Probably not too often. Yes, it likely happens, but to the point that we are going to suggest it is endemic in our society? No, it isn't. The truth is, outside of Seattle, crime has recently risen and dropped... depending on the crimes one looks at, including California. Some violent crimes are up, some aren't. We see this broadly across the country (red and blue). But some want to just point at certain crimes and yell the sky is falling because of the Dems (...and Gov. Newsom) all the while rural murder rate is up 25%.
We do have a catch-and-release problem. The problem is that we went a bit too far in bail reform. I agree with the basic concept--we had a problem where being stuck in jail without being able to afford bail ended up being the de-facto punishment in many cases and note that since that's before the trial there was no determination of guilt.

Unfortunately, going to a zero-bail system means that repeat offenders stay out of jail until trial--and the longer the period between offense and punishment the less deterrence there is.

What I would like to see is a middle ground: zero-bail until you violate it or reoffend. If you're out on zero-bail and are arrested for something else go back to the old system. If you fail to show up when you're supposed to there is a rebuttable presumption that you can't be trusted and you don't get zero-bail in the future. (Not a certainty--things happen. People fail to get notifications of date changes, transportation breakdowns happen etc. Not everybody has money for a taxi when the car doesn't go, you don't even have that option if there was an accident... Last night I was watching a presentation by a local mountaineering group--they got tied up by the police for hours because they found a freshly-dead body in the wilderness. Most of the time when us backcountry guys find a body there's no questions because the body has obviously been there for a while, but in this case it was less than one hour--less time than it took search and rescue to get there.)
That's just a(nother) bandaid solution.

The problem is that justice delayed is justice denied.

Arrestees are innocent in law until convicted; It is therefore incumbent upon the system to ensure that trials occur without delay, so that those who are ultimately acquitted are freed from the burden of suspicion as soon as possible, and so that those who are ultimately convicted are removed from the opportunity to reoffend as soon as possible.

Achieving the latter by imprisonment of lawfully innocent citizens is a fucking terrible idea. Making those citizens pay money for their freedom is an even worse idea.

Your entire legal system, from policing, through arrest, bail, and trial, to the penalties and conditions imposed on convicts, is a shitty mess of compromises, held together with bandaid remedies for sucking chest wound scale injustices.

If you started from scratch trying to design a system that minimised crime, minimised recidivism, and minimised the consequences of false accusations, you wouldn't end up with a system much like anything that exists today.

The entire concept of jail as the main option for dealing with convicted criminals is absurd, particularly given the huge gulf between the concept of depriving someone of their liberty; and the reality of depriving them of liberty, dignity, safety, enfranchisement, protection from forced labour, and any effective redress of issues.

You can tell a great deal about a society from the way it treats it's convicts.
 

bilby

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Please show me the stats showing the rampant rise in crime in San Francisco relative to the rest of the country. A few Tweets don't count.

Steve Bank is out of Seattle and Seattle legitimately appears to be having a disproportionate increase in crime relative to the nation, San Francisco hasn't.
Those tweets do count. They're all showing people that should have been behind bars, unable to commit the repeated offenses they were committing.
But they don't show the people behind bars, innocent of any crime, waiting for their chance to clear their name in court.

If you only look at half of the issue, it's unsurprising that your conclusions about what issues need addressing most urgently are badly skewed.
 

Loren Pechtel

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Arrestees are innocent in law until convicted; It is therefore incumbent upon the system to ensure that trials occur without delay, so that those who are ultimately acquitted are freed from the burden of suspicion as soon as possible, and so that those who are ultimately convicted are removed from the opportunity to reoffend as soon as possible.

Unfortunately neither prosecution nor defense can actually function fast enough for this to be the answer. It's not so much the actual process as the waits for external things.
 

Loren Pechtel

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Please show me the stats showing the rampant rise in crime in San Francisco relative to the rest of the country. A few Tweets don't count.

Steve Bank is out of Seattle and Seattle legitimately appears to be having a disproportionate increase in crime relative to the nation, San Francisco hasn't.
Those tweets do count. They're all showing people that should have been behind bars, unable to commit the repeated offenses they were committing.
But they don't show the people behind bars, innocent of any crime, waiting for their chance to clear their name in court.

If you only look at half of the issue, it's unsurprising that your conclusions about what issues need addressing most urgently are badly skewed.
You think there's any reasonable chance they're innocent?!

Picked up for a crime you didn't commit certainly does happen. Picked up many times for different crimes you didn't actually commit? Exceedingly unlikely.
 

bilby

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Please show me the stats showing the rampant rise in crime in San Francisco relative to the rest of the country. A few Tweets don't count.

Steve Bank is out of Seattle and Seattle legitimately appears to be having a disproportionate increase in crime relative to the nation, San Francisco hasn't.
Those tweets do count. They're all showing people that should have been behind bars, unable to commit the repeated offenses they were committing.
But they don't show the people behind bars, innocent of any crime, waiting for their chance to clear their name in court.

If you only look at half of the issue, it's unsurprising that your conclusions about what issues need addressing most urgently are badly skewed.
You think there's any reasonable chance they're innocent?!
Yes.

And in law, it's a FACT that they are innocent.
Picked up for a crime you didn't commit certainly does happen. Picked up many times for different crimes you didn't actually commit? Exceedingly unlikely.
Assuming completely fair, unbiased and incorruptible police.

That's a highly dubious assumption, particularly given the proliferation of tiny police departments in the USA.
 

TSwizzle

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This is what we have to put up with in "The Fifth Largest Economy In The World"TM

A Los Angeles homeless man known for openly defecating on Ventura Boulevard is seen on video obtained by FOX 11 hurling a bag of feces onto the hood of a business owner’s SUV. "Every single day, every single morning, I’m wiping that off my property before I have to do business," Paul Scrivano, owner of The Blue Dog Beer Tavern, told the news team at the scene. "Everyday is like an adventure of ‘One Flew Over the Cuckcoo’s Nest.' It is like … literally a psych ward," Scrivano told the reporter. "That’s OK – pooping on the street, peeing on the street, having sex on the street. Making threats without a weapon. That’s OK now."

Fox News LA
 

steve_bank

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I suppose metaphorically a sign of decliningg civil order is publically defecating on Internet forums.
 

bilby

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It's almost as though marginalising people and abandoning them to make their way unassisted leaves them with no respect whatsoever for their wealthy and successful neighbours, law, or society.

Obviously, you haven't yet been sufficiently cruel to them to make them want to support the cruelty of your system.

The only imaginable solution is more cruelty. Obviously. :rolleyesa:
 

TSwizzle

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I suppose metaphorically a sign of decliningg civil order is publically defecating on Internet forums.

Did you even watch the video? I suspect not.

I would say that leaving mentally ill people to live like this, sleeping in doorways, defecating in the street and throwing their shit around etc. is inhumane. Some parts of Los Angeles (and other cities in California) really are open air psychiatric wards. Some days, driving to my office is like a zombie apocalypse. Drugged up zombies wandering in the middle of busy streets, you have to be careful you don't knock them down.

To be fair to Newsom, he has kicked off a few programs and initiatives recently that are supposed to help these people. We shall see but I am not hopeful the situation is going to improve to any great extent. Newsom is more interested in grandstanding in front of the cameras about 50 migrants/refugees taken on a joy ride to Martha's Vineyard than the plight of the mentally ill here in California.
 

Jimmy Higgins

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I suppose metaphorically a sign of decliningg civil order is publically defecating on Internet forums.

Did you even watch the video? I suspect not.

I would say that leaving mentally ill people to live like this, sleeping in doorways, defecating in the street and throwing their shit around etc. is inhumane. Some parts of Los Angeles (and other cities in California) really are open air psychiatric wards. Some days, driving to my office is like a zombie apocalypse. Drugged up zombies wandering in the middle of busy streets, you have to be careful you don't knock them down.

To be fair to Newsom, he has kicked off a few programs and initiatives recently that are supposed to help these people.
One of these days, people like you will learn that you don't "help" these people, these people need assistance for life.
We shall see but I am not hopeful the situation is going to improve to any great extent. Newsom is more interested in grandstanding in front of the cameras about 50 migrants/refugees taken on a joy ride to Martha's Vineyard than the plight of the mentally ill here in California.
Please stop pretending you give a fuck about the mentally ill.
 

bilby

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I suppose metaphorically a sign of decliningg civil order is publically defecating on Internet forums.

Did you even watch the video? I suspect not.

I would say that leaving mentally ill people to live like this, sleeping in doorways, defecating in the street and throwing their shit around etc. is inhumane. Some parts of Los Angeles (and other cities in California) really are open air psychiatric wards. Some days, driving to my office is like a zombie apocalypse. Drugged up zombies wandering in the middle of busy streets, you have to be careful you don't knock them down.

To be fair to Newsom, he has kicked off a few programs and initiatives recently that are supposed to help these people. We shall see but I am not hopeful the situation is going to improve to any great extent. Newsom is more interested in grandstanding in front of the cameras about 50 migrants/refugees taken on a joy ride to Martha's Vineyard than the plight of the mentally ill here in California.
How much time and effort have you spent lobbying for increased taxes to pay for assistance to the homeless?

How many times have you voted for people who have a platform of doing something effective, rather than punitive?
 

Jarhyn

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So, I can't help but wonder about the interactions Mr Poopsmear Von Businessman has had with this serial sidewalk shitter.

Someone only has so much shit they can push out their ass. If he's showing up with a bag of it that implies special expended effort to target him.

So... Why?

I can't but wonder why Poopsmear Von Businessman is on the receiving end of this daily dose of dookie.
 

steve_bank

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I suppose metaphorically a sign of decliningg civil order is publically defecating on Internet forums.

Did you even watch the video? I suspect not.

I would say that leaving mentally ill people to live like this, sleeping in doorways, defecating in the street and throwing their shit around etc. is inhumane. Some parts of Los Angeles (and other cities in California) really are open air psychiatric wards. Some days, driving to my office is like a zombie apocalypse. Drugged up zombies wandering in the middle of busy streets, you have to be careful you don't knock them down.

To be fair to Newsom, he has kicked off a few programs and initiatives recently that are supposed to help these people. We shall see but I am not hopeful the situation is going to improve to any great extent. Newsom is more interested in grandstanding in front of the cameras about 50 migrants/refugees taken on a joy ride to Martha's Vineyard than the plight of the mentally ill here in California.
It is probably acadmic and partisan to you.

To me it is the reality I live in, and everybody in my building. Some will not go outside anymore. Over the last 5 years I have had several confrontations, which defused without getting physical. I suspect if you actually were confronted with a crazy person you would piss in your pants.

Jimmy is right, you dom't 'help' these people. They have adapted to the way they live and know nothing else. It is something the Seattle progressives do not want to publicly admit, many will need care for life. For a number of the homelss the idea that they will receive treatment and transition to a normal life is not practcal. On top of that Wa courts have generally ruled homeless can not be coerced into housing or treatment.

Hotels ar being purchased and tiny home viliages are being built for housing. A tiny home is a small studio built on a pltform with water, electricty, and sewage.

Tiny house villages are a very good idea. However without an on site supervisor they have been seen to degrade into street like conditions. Trash all around and accumulation of junk.

To te OP title of breakdown in civil order the question is what is driving the increase in conditions where peoole end up on the street. A percntage are working peopel who lost housing because they could not afford it here in Seattle, but that does not explan the rest of it.

Drugs are a major driver. Organized crime is part of it, criminals are overcapitalizing on lenience given the homeless. This is not my conclusion, this is local reporting.

What I see is a general breakdown. Young healhy people chose not to work when employers can not find peole willing to work. The increase in grfitti is notable. It is everywhere. Spots on our building are painted over and new graffiti quickly appears.

Increased serious business vandalism. Attacks on police.

Someone in my building while out running pulled two kids off an old Asian woman they were assaulting. Culture has taken a serious trurn for the worse.
 

TSwizzle

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And in San Diego NBA legend Bill Walton was attacked by "homeless" people;

As we all know, San Diego’s homeless crisis is only getting worse under the leadership of Mayor Todd Gloria, who continues to pretend like he is working to fix the issue. But all his efforts have failed. In downtown San Diego alone, there is a record high 1,609 homeless residents. Back in July 2022, KUSI reported that there was a record number of deaths in our homeless population, and literally nothing has been done. San Diego native Bill Walton is publicly calling out Mayor Todd Gloria’s failure publicly, saying Gloria has “failed us and yourself.” The Voice of San Diego reports that Walton has sent a series of emails to Mayor Gloria’s office, detailing his personal encounters with our homeless population. The Voice of San Diego reported one email to read, “while peacefully riding my bike early this Sunday morning in Balboa Park, I was threatened, chased, and assaulted by the homeless population, in our Park.”

KSU News

Walton posted on his instagram;



There was some improvement in SD when Faulconer was mayor but things have gone noticeably downhill.

It's a shocking state of affairs.
 

steve_bank

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A 'fart in the dark'.

We can post examples of assaults attributed to homeless till the cows come home.

It is not just the homeless.

Rising income inequality is increasingly making it difficult for more working people to get by.

Historically that is the seed for social and civil breakdown.

Unrestricted free market capitalism is coming to its end, at least as it has been for the last 200 years.

The thretened strike by rail workers would have shut down the economy.
 

steve_bank

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Rising income inequality is increasingly making it difficult for more working people to get by.
Rising inflation isn't helping.
Inflation, growth, recession, boon, bust are part of the economic system cycles. It is inherent in free market economics.

At some point will people accept that when there is plenty of food and resources to provide housing? Historically I would say future generations will not.

Why work wen it is uncertain what you build for yourself will fall apart? When people stop beliving than civil rder breaks down. We sawt during the VN War and blacks saying enough is enough and rioted in the 60s. Kent State.
 

TSwizzle

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Rising income inequality is increasingly making it difficult for more working people to get by.
Rising inflation isn't helping.
Inflation? In California? You bring up inflation?!

Yes, what of it?

Housing is the problem.
The cost of housing is one problem among many in California and I'm sure it is a problem in many other states. It is not unique to California. There are affordable homes in California in some areas.

People can't afford homes in California...
Many people do afford homes. California is very expensive and one needs to take that into consideration before you move here. I guess a lot of people have decided to move out of California and I plan on moving out.

not because of generic inflation.
Inflation increases the cost of many things, not just housing. The price of gas has shot up, people who commute have to pay double in gas than what they used to. Energy prices have gone up, food prices have gone up. I'm sure many people are feeling the pinch. "making it difficult for more working people to get by."
 

Jimmy Higgins

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Rising income inequality is increasingly making it difficult for more working people to get by.
Rising inflation isn't helping.
Inflation? In California? You bring up inflation?!
Yes, what of it?
It isn't particularly accurate.
Housing is the problem.
The cost of housing is one problem among many in California and I'm sure it is a problem in many other states. It is not unique to California. There are affordable homes in California in some areas.
Those areas tend to be more flammable than the others.
The price of gas has shot up, people who commute have to pay double in gas than what they used to. Energy prices have gone up, food prices have gone up. I'm sure many people are feeling the pinch. "making it difficult for more working people to get by."
These people aren't suddenly homeless because the cost of food went up 10% or gasoline went up suddenly.
 

TSwizzle

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Rising income inequality is increasingly making it difficult for more working people to get by.
Rising inflation isn't helping.
Inflation? In California? You bring up inflation?!
Yes, what of it?
It isn't particularly accurate.

Not accurate? Then you must not think that rising inflation is having an effect on people's ability to get by.

Housing is the problem.
The cost of housing is one problem among many in California and I'm sure it is a problem in many other states. It is not unique to California. There are affordable homes in California in some areas.
Those areas tend to be more flammable than the others.

Malibu is very, very expensive and experiences wildfires every year. And floods. But there are affordable homes dotted around California, even LA County.
 

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Inflation increases the cost of many things, not just housing. The price of gas has shot up, people who commute have to pay double in gas than what they used to. Energy prices have gone up, food prices have gone up. I'm sure many people are feeling the pinch. "making it difficult for more working people to get by."
That describes exactly what is happening here in Australia. I'd very much like to find out how Governor Newsom's policies managed to affect an entire continent on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. And probably in Europe.
 

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It's almost as though marginalising people and abandoning them to make their way unassisted leaves them with no respect whatsoever for their wealthy and successful neighbours, law, or society.
Why do you think California does not have assistance for those struggling to make ends meet?

At some point we need to stop blaming society for everything. Those people made their choices to attack people or steal from people.

Obviously, you haven't yet been sufficiently cruel to them to make them want to support the cruelty of your system.
Cruel? If anything, California and esp. counties like LA are way too lenient since they hardly ever prosecute crimes like these.
 

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The entire concept of jail as the main option for dealing with convicted criminals is absurd,
Maybe we should go back to exiling them to Australia. :)

Seriously though, jail should not be the go-to sentence for many crimes. Community service is an alternative.
But for more serious misdemeanors and esp. for repeat offenders, county jail is the right place.
Say for example shoplifting. First offense, fine and some community service is in order. Perp does it again, jail time is appropriate.
Burglary though, even if charged as misdemeanor and not felony, should result in jail time for a first offense, because it is more serious.
 

steve_bank

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The entire concept of jail as the main option for dealing with convicted criminals is absurd,
Maybe we should go back to exiling them to Australia. :)

Seriously though, jail should not be the go-to sentence for many crimes. Community service is an alternative.
But for more serious misdemeanors and esp. for repeat offenders, county jail is the right place.
Say for example shoplifting. First offense, fine and some community service is in order. Perp does it again, jail time is appropriate.
Burglary though, even if charged as misdemeanor and not felony, should result in jail time for a first offense, because it is more serious.
We are seeing the effect of that judicial philosophy in Seattle. Some criminals respnd to diversion programs, in general It does not work.

A judicial revolving door for violent offenders on down.

People arrested for shoplifting are released and go stel from the same store. Shop lifting has gone up. Some stores now have security gurads.
 

Oleg

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You can tell a great deal about a society from the way it treats it's convicts.
So true. An enlighted society would let this guy go. He's the real victim.


The purpose of that non-sequitur is?

Do we say no bail? No prision? Or do we say he's a menace to society and should be locked up? So often these discussion are in the abstract. Let's make it real. Progressives, defend your position.
 

Oleg

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Just some misunderstood yutes. Society is much better off with them free than locked up. Can I get an Amen!?

 

bilby

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I didn't suggest that criminals should be free. I suggested that they should be treated well, rather than being abused and brutalised.

US prison conditions are vile, and you would struggle to devise a punishment less effective at reducing recidivism.

Prisoners who are better people on their release than they were when they went inside is the goal.

Prisoners who are merely unchanged (but older) would represent a failure of the system.

But the US system seems well suited to encourage people to become more antisocial, more violent, and more cruel; While simultaneously giving them an education in how to be a more effective criminal, and branding them with a stigma that makes earning a legitimate living effectively impossible.

So, to reiterate, you can tell a great deal about a society from the way it treats it's convicts.

One thing it tells us about the US is that it's a harsh and uncaring nation that would rather apply vengeance against people who commit crimes, than attempt to make them better members of society.
 

Jarhyn

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I didn't suggest that criminals should be free. I suggested that they should be treated well, rather than being abused and brutalised.

US prison conditions are vile, and you would struggle to devise a punishment less effective at reducing recidivism.

Prisoners who are better people on their release than they were when they went inside is the goal.

Prisoners who are merely unchanged (but older) would represent a failure of the system.

But the US system seems well suited to encourage people to become more antisocial, more violent, and more cruel; While simultaneously giving them an education in how to be a more effective criminal, and branding them with a stigma that makes earning a legitimate living effectively impossible.

So, to reiterate, you can tell a great deal about a society from the way it treats it's convicts.

One thing it tells us about the US is that it's a harsh and uncaring nation that would rather apply vengeance against people who commit crimes, than attempt to make them better members of society.
I think the phrase you are seeking is "false dichotomy".

It is not a binary choice between people violating each other on the streets and harshly torturing criminals as you point out.

The way Oleg would tell it though, it's totally binary.

It tells us about the conservatives of the US being harsh and uncaring and would rather apply vengeance against people who commit crimes, than attempt to make them better members of society.
 
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