• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Climate Change(d)?

Jimmy Higgins said:
Some are leav8ng areas, not raising rates.
Click to expand...
That’s because they’re greedy sumbiches, and they’re going to greener pastures. They’re just now realizing that coastal areas are too risky and overpriced. They’ve always been that way, but it used to be that only a few rich people had beach properties and it was okay to give them preferential rates. But now with all these deadbeat millionaires living on the sand, it’s just too much guaranteed loss. Nothing to do with climate change, just economy of scale. (Yes, I actually heard that argument)
 
It isn't as simple as "sumbiches".
article said:
Nationwide has already pulled back in certain areas. The company said that in 2020, it “reduced exposure levels in some of the highest hazard wildland urban interface areas in California.”

In its response to the regulators’ survey, Nationwide said it no longer underwrites coverage for “properties within a certain distance to the coastline” because of hurricane potential.

Other changes will come. “More targeted hurricane risk mitigation actions are being finalized and will start by year-end 2023,” Nationwide told regulators.
Click to expand...
Insurance is math, "simple" statistics.
article said:
U.S. insurers have disbursed $295.8 billion in natural disaster claims over the past three years, according to international risk management firm Aon. That’s a record for a three-year period, according to the American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Natural catastrophes in the first six months of 2023 in the United States caused $40 billion in insured losses, the third costliest first-half on record, Aon found.
Click to expand...
The statistics have changed! Insurance losses have over doubled since 10 years ago. As I noted in a PD thread about moving on from preventing climate change and how are we going to deal with the change that has already occurred and will continue to occur. And managing the issue of insurance was one of the problems raised.

This isn't about evil corporations running away from risk. This is about corporations running away from new risk. This is proof positive that we've had significant change that will impact lots of lives. We don't need the apocalypse for climate change to be very burdensome.

article said:
“There is no wildfire season anymore — it’s year-round,” said Sampson, who is also a member of President Biden’s Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission.

Major hurricanes are becoming more frequent and hold more intense rains, said Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. Meanwhile, “tornado alley” — an area swarmed by twisters that runs from Texas and Oklahoma through Kansas and Nebraska — is moving east, according to 2018 and 2022 research published in the journals Nature and Environmental Research Communications.
Click to expand...
30 to 40 years ago, tornados tore up no where. Now Tornado Alley is much further east, where more people live. We had a major hurricane land in Florida, that wasn't even a hurricane 30 hours before landfall. Natural events with with high intensities are occurring more often now. That means more damage, that means more financial losses.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
We had a major hurricane land in Florida, that wasn't even a hurricane 30 hours before landfall.
Click to expand...
That kind of thing is a major tell. It takes a LOT of heat to spin things up that fast - heat that was never available before the unprecedented heating of the ocean.
101° seawater off Key West? Secure the decks!
We are past the point of mitigating climate change. Now we can only try to minimize it’s catastrophic effects.
 
We haven't reach catastrophic quite yet. But when you modify a climate that impacts something the size of the United States, the aggregate financial impact will be notable.
 
Elixir said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
We haven't reach catastrophic quite yet.
Click to expand...
?
It’s going to get much worse before it gets any better. The so-called “tipping point” has been passed.
Click to expand...
That is a presumption, that it'll get better. Regarding "tipping point" we don't know and quips like that are counter-productive. The climate is wildly complicated so saying "tipping point" and even what it regards is baseless.

The real world trouble today is that hitting net zero today, and the environment still warms up until we reach some equilibrium, which might be decades away. And we aren't hitting net zero today. Our environment is going to continue to warm up and the climate will continue to be more difficult to manage financially for at least two decades, and more likely 50+ years. The key to remember is it doesn't need to be catastrophic for all humankind in order for it to make life harder for billions, and ruin the lives of millions. We don't need to go extinct in order for hardship to needlessly increase significantly, because some people's brains have been poisoned by right wing media.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
It isn't as simple as "sumbiches".
article said:
Nationwide has already pulled back in certain areas. The company said that in 2020, it “reduced exposure levels in some of the highest hazard wildland urban interface areas in California.”

In its response to the regulators’ survey, Nationwide said it no longer underwrites coverage for “properties within a certain distance to the coastline” because of hurricane potential.

Other changes will come. “More targeted hurricane risk mitigation actions are being finalized and will start by year-end 2023,” Nationwide told regulators.
Click to expand...
Insurance is math, "simple" statistics.
article said:
U.S. insurers have disbursed $295.8 billion in natural disaster claims over the past three years, according to international risk management firm Aon. That’s a record for a three-year period, according to the American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Natural catastrophes in the first six months of 2023 in the United States caused $40 billion in insured losses, the third costliest first-half on record, Aon found.
Click to expand...
The statistics have changed! Insurance losses have over doubled since 10 years ago. As I noted in a PD thread about moving on from preventing climate change and how are we going to deal with the change that has already occurred and will continue to occur. And managing the issue of insurance was one of the problems raised.

This isn't about evil corporations running away from risk. This is about corporations running away from new risk. This is proof positive that we've had significant change that will impact lots of lives. We don't need the apocalypse for climate change to be very burdensome.

article said:
“There is no wildfire season anymore — it’s year-round,” said Sampson, who is also a member of President Biden’s Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission.

Major hurricanes are becoming more frequent and hold more intense rains, said Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. Meanwhile, “tornado alley” — an area swarmed by twisters that runs from Texas and Oklahoma through Kansas and Nebraska — is moving east, according to 2018 and 2022 research published in the journals Nature and Environmental Research Communications.
Click to expand...
30 to 40 years ago, tornados tore up no where. Now Tornado Alley is much further east, where more people live. We had a major hurricane land in Florida, that wasn't even a hurricane 30 hours before landfall. Natural events with with high intensities are occurring more often now. That means more damage, that means more financial losses.
Click to expand...
Historically early season storms that formed in the eastern GoMex prior to the Cape Verde season that is just about to kick off struggled against vertical wind sheer and made landfall at tropical storm intensity. Idalia was never in a terribly favorable synoptic wind profile for intensification but the massively intense convection associated with water > 30C overcame the headwinds/sidewinds in the middle levels of the atmosphere. Franklin didn't hit land but achieved very impressive intensity in a short period of time and was the furthest north that I recall a storm of that intensity when it crossed the 29th parallel.

Our local office release the climate summary for June-August and August particularly. The meteorologists there are generally very understated about heat because it is always hot in Florida in summer. But their report for August was pages long with all of the records broken across most climate recording sites in their CWA. There were even superlatives which is not typical for them to include. They generally refuse to issue heat advisories and downplay heat in their forecasts. We had a day back in August where TPA, JAX, Miami, Tallahasee all issue heat warnings and MLB issued nothing. Local heat indices that afternoon were 115F+ with temps between 95-100F and dewpoints sitting around 80F. They actually acknowledged the extreme heat that day after the fact and issued advisories and warnings as needed in subsequent days with similar weather. August was definitely unprecedented with temperatures at or above all prior records with humidity well above what was recorded in prior similar heat waves. In the old days we only approached 100F around here in summer with anomalous continental airmasses with lower than normal surface dewpoints. This heat came with higher than normal surface dewpoits.

And the insurance companies aren't playing. We have a concrete block and stucco house that we re-roofed with all the modern stuff and a heavy duty stone coated steel covering, impact windows, braced garage door, metal shutters, and we're 23 feet above sea level on the west side of a micro-tidal lagoon with the nearest inlet quite a long distance away. None of the national companies will touch us with a 10ft pole. Irma kicked them in the shins. Michael and Ian were the last straw.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
That is a presumption, that it'll get better. Regarding "tipping point" we don't know and quips like that are counter-productive.
Click to expand...
How so?
I feel like failure to acknowledge where we were is why we are where we are.
Jimmy Higgins said:
we aren't hitting net zero today.
Click to expand...
Nor will we tomorrow.
Jimmy Higgins said:
Our environment is going to continue to warm up and the climate will continue to be more difficult to manage financially for at least two decades, and more likely 50+ years.
Click to expand...
Barring the collapse of industrial civilization, warming will continue indefinitely.
You’re younger than I am. Perhaps a degree of optimism is a good thing even if it’s not going to play out in roses.
 
scombrid said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
It isn't as simple as "sumbiches".
article said:
Nationwide has already pulled back in certain areas. The company said that in 2020, it “reduced exposure levels in some of the highest hazard wildland urban interface areas in California.”

In its response to the regulators’ survey, Nationwide said it no longer underwrites coverage for “properties within a certain distance to the coastline” because of hurricane potential.

Other changes will come. “More targeted hurricane risk mitigation actions are being finalized and will start by year-end 2023,” Nationwide told regulators.
Click to expand...
Insurance is math, "simple" statistics.
article said:
U.S. insurers have disbursed $295.8 billion in natural disaster claims over the past three years, according to international risk management firm Aon. That’s a record for a three-year period, according to the American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Natural catastrophes in the first six months of 2023 in the United States caused $40 billion in insured losses, the third costliest first-half on record, Aon found.
Click to expand...
The statistics have changed! Insurance losses have over doubled since 10 years ago. As I noted in a PD thread about moving on from preventing climate change and how are we going to deal with the change that has already occurred and will continue to occur. And managing the issue of insurance was one of the problems raised.

This isn't about evil corporations running away from risk. This is about corporations running away from new risk. This is proof positive that we've had significant change that will impact lots of lives. We don't need the apocalypse for climate change to be very burdensome.

article said:
“There is no wildfire season anymore — it’s year-round,” said Sampson, who is also a member of President Biden’s Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission.

Major hurricanes are becoming more frequent and hold more intense rains, said Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. Meanwhile, “tornado alley” — an area swarmed by twisters that runs from Texas and Oklahoma through Kansas and Nebraska — is moving east, according to 2018 and 2022 research published in the journals Nature and Environmental Research Communications.
Click to expand...
30 to 40 years ago, tornados tore up no where. Now Tornado Alley is much further east, where more people live. We had a major hurricane land in Florida, that wasn't even a hurricane 30 hours before landfall. Natural events with with high intensities are occurring more often now. That means more damage, that means more financial losses.
Click to expand...
Historically early season storms that formed in the eastern GoMex prior to the Cape Verde season that is just about to kick off struggled against vertical wind sheer and made landfall at tropical storm intensity. Idalia was never in a terribly favorable synoptic wind profile for intensification but the massively intense convection associated with water > 30C overcame the headwinds/sidewinds in the middle levels of the atmosphere. Franklin didn't hit land but achieved very impressive intensity in a short period of time and was the furthest north that I recall a storm of that intensity when it crossed the 29th parallel.

Our local office release the climate summary for June-August and August particularly. The meteorologists there are generally very understated about heat because it is always hot in Florida in summer. But their report for August was pages long with all of the records broken across most climate recording sites in their CWA. There were even superlatives which is not typical for them to include. They generally refuse to issue heat advisories and downplay heat in their forecasts. We had a day back in August where TPA, JAX, Miami, Tallahasee all issue heat warnings and MLB issued nothing. Local heat indices that afternoon were 115F+ with temps between 95-100F and dewpoints sitting around 80F. They actually acknowledged the extreme heat that day after the fact and issued advisories and warnings as needed in subsequent days with similar weather. August was definitely unprecedented with temperatures at or above all prior records with humidity well above what was recorded in prior similar heat waves. In the old days we only approached 100F around here in summer with anomalous continental airmasses with lower than normal surface dewpoints. This heat came with higher than normal surface dewpoits.
Click to expand...
And things to make people in the Caribbean Sea a little nervous. There is a depression in the Eastern Atlantic right now, and it is forecasted to become a big storm 140 MPH winds. That isn't the worrying part.
NHC said:
The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus.
Click to expand...
:eek:

In 5 days, the printed forecast is 140 mph, and that is below the model consensus. The good news is most of the models do have this curving away from the Caribbean Islands and the US. Hopefully stays that way.
 
A pair of models indicating 200+ mph is possible. This storm is quite something. They keep underestimating the intensification and they are modeling it intensifying fast.
 
There was a big climate-activist march in New York City last Sunday.

repost from @blackgirlenvironmentalist … | Instagram

#marchtoendfossilfuels #bidendeclareclimateemergency @fightfossils @marchtoendfossilfuels @fff.nyc | Instagram - lots of still pictures in the video

#marchtoendfossilfuels #endfossilfuels | Instagram - "Green New Deal"

#marchtoendfossilfuels @aoc @repaoc @fff.nyc @fightfossils @marchtoendfossilfuels | Instagram -- AOC's speech there. She said that a lot more people showed up than expected -- expected: 10,000, actual: 50,000 to 70,000. She said that many of us will still be alive in the decades to come. She said that we need both electoral and extra-electoral activism. She doesn't want to go from oil barons to solar barons. She objected to the Biden Admin's approval of fossil-fuel leases. "Don't let the cynics win," saying that we must get organized.

H.Res.109 - 116th Congress (2019-2020): Recognizing the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal. | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

@vanessanakate1 | Instagram - Vanessa Nakate, a climate activist from Uganda, also spoke in this rally
 
From the New York Times:
Tens of thousands of people … | Instagram
Tens of thousands of people, young and old, filled the streets of Midtown Manhattan on Sunday to demand that world leaders quickly pivot away from fossil fuels that are dangerously heating the planet. The participants’ ire was sharply directed at President Biden, who is expected to arrive in New York on Sunday night to attend several fund-raisers this week and to speak before the United Nations General Assembly session that begins on Tuesday.

The climate protest in New York follows a weekend of similar demonstrations in Germany, England, Senegal, South Korea, India and elsewhere. They are the largest such protests since before the Covid-19 pandemic, and they come on the heels of the hottest summer on record, exacerbated by planetary warming, and amid record profits for oil and gas companies.

Tap the link in our bio to see more from the protest. Video by @noahswthroop, photos by @sarahblesener and Bryan Anselm for The New York Times
Click to expand...

Turning to Twitter/X,

Margaret Klein Salamon, PhD on X: "To all the climate-activism critics. ..." / X
To all the climate-activism critics.
I am once again asking you:

What is the “right” way for them to protest?

What protest gets lots of attention, raises the alarm about the climate emergency, puts pressure on politicians- AND doesn’t bother anyone?
Click to expand...
Great question. A lot of previous movements' activism was not exactly widely appreciated, like in the civil-rights movement, with its sit-ins at diner lunch counters and its Freedom Rides challenging segregation laws. Both Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bernie Sanders were arrested as a result of their activism in that movement, with MLK composing Letter from Birmingham Jail - susi-letter-from-birmingham-jail.pdf

I must concede that some types of activism are just plain dumb, like throwing soup at paintings.
 
'End Fossil Fuels' Protests Kick Off Worldwide Ahead of UN Climate Ambition Summit
"Climate catastrophe is already devastating the lives and livelihoods of people across the world and primarily those in the Global South, who are least responsible for causing it," said one campaigner.

...
"From Pacific nations, heavily affected by sea-level rise and storms, through Mumbai to Manila, London to Nairobi, over 650 actions are planned in 60 countries, culminating in a march in New York City on September 17," according to protest organizers.

...
The Global Fight to End Fossil Fuels "opposes the fossil fuel industry, which has made obscene profits at the expense of the world's people, biodiversity, and a safe and livable climate," added organizers, who expect millions to join the protests over the coming days. "It calls on governments and companies to immediately end fossil fuel expansion and subsidies."

...
The actions come amid the hottest summer on record and as experts continue to sound the alarm over unwavering environmental destruction, especially by the fossil fuel industry and its political and financial backers.

International scientists revealed this week that six of nine barriers that ensure Earth is a "safe operating space for humanity" have been breached, which followed recent findings that greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea level, and ocean heat content hit record highs last year.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom