Cocked and Loaded on Behalf of the Saudis

[Loren Pechtel]

You realize that the "Yemenis" are an Iranian client state? Anything major from there is on orders from Tehran.

So people keep asserting.

But the reality of revolutionaries, insurgents, terrorists, freedom fighters, whatever you call them, throughout history, is that they fight first and foremost for themselves, their communities, families, and beliefs. State sponsors and supporters often like to imagine that they are pulling the strings, but the fighters will tolerate being told what to do only so far as it matches their own objectives; And the relationship is invariably more about supplies and logistical support than it is about command and control.

In detail you are right. In general, though, if you don't do what the guys arming you want you aren't going to get the weapons.

However, this is a special case anyway--not your typical guns, but high tech weapons. The Houthis pretend they're building them themselves but that's a joke. The drones have Chinese engines and everything else is Iranian. These aren't the toys you can buy off the shelf--such toys don't have the lifting capacity to haul an appreciable warhead.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump has gone from despising SA to being their chums. One really has to wonder if he has any idea what he's doing, particularly in light of his revolving-door cabinet.

My take is that short of an Iranian invasion or open aggression he's just gonna sit back and take the money. It's really a win-win situation for him personally and politically. He dumped Bolton because he really doesn't want to do anything that threatens his reelection chances or personal cash flow. In every instance where he criticized the previous administration he has done exactly the same thing, the only difference being that publicly he talks a different talk and his minions salivate. He's a pretty good showman in that sense, as he's always been. His entertainment value is what got him elected.

We'll see if any incontrovertible evidence of Iranian action in these bombings is produced. I don't think we'll see any, even if it's there, and only because he doesn't want to see it, which is the same reason Bolton is gone. And that's not a conspiracy theory, just politics.

More mindless chatter about Trump.

You guys can spin and dream away if you want. But in the final analysis, nobody has started another crappy and expensive war right now. Not yet. And thats a gpod thing if you respect all life as I do.

Pull your head out of your ass for a few seconds of fresh air. And judge people by what they have actually done or not done. In this case, realize no one is yet dying in another stupid war!

All Trump ever does is talk (such as saying we were on the Saudis’ leash), so that is what we are left with.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Trump has gone from despising SA to being their chums. One really has to wonder if he has any idea what he's doing, particularly in light of his revolving-door cabinet.

My take is that short of an Iranian invasion or open aggression he's just gonna sit back and take the money. It's really a win-win situation for him personally and politically. He dumped Bolton because he really doesn't want to do anything that threatens his reelection chances or personal cash flow. In every instance where he criticized the previous administration he has done exactly the same thing, the only difference being that publicly he talks a different talk and his minions salivate. He's a pretty good showman in that sense, as he's always been. His entertainment value is what got him elected.

We'll see if any incontrovertible evidence of Iranian action in these bombings is produced. I don't think we'll see any, even if it's there, and only because he doesn't want to see it, which is the same reason Bolton is gone. And that's not a conspiracy theory, just politics.

More mindless chatter about Trump.

You guys can spin and dream away if you want. But in the final analysis, nobody has started another crappy and expensive war right now. Not yet. And thats a gpod thing if you respect all life as I do.

Pull your head out of your ass for a few seconds of fresh air. And judge people by what they have actually done or not done. In this case, realize no one is yet dying in another stupid war!

Iran doesn't do this without Trumpo pulling out of the nuclear deal.

The problem for the Clown in Chief is that in his wildest dreams he didn't think something like this would happen. He didn't think they'd shoot down drones or commandeer ships either.

If someone had advised the Orange Clown that Iran is resilient and will keep ratcheting up the ante the Orange Clown would fire him.

That said, like you, I'm glad he hasn't done anything any more stupid and damaging than he's already done.

 

[Derec]

If someone had advised the Orange Clown that Iran is resilient and will keep ratcheting up the ante the Orange Clown would fire him.

The only reason they can ratchet up the ante is because we let them. We should have bombed an IRGC base or two by now.

That said, like you, I'm glad he hasn't done anything any more stupid and damaging than he's already done.

Doing nothing is what is stupid in this situation.

 

[Derec]

sure they can! They just grab them by the husk!

Depends on whether they are European or African swallows drones.

Wow. It's rare that I run into an individual that claims to know absolutely everything about something.

I know, I know. It was a deliberate hyperbole because I was getting fed up dealing with laughing dog and his ignorance. But I assure you, I am not your 7th grade friend.

 

[Derec]

Dime store drones can fly... a short distance. Drones that costs thousands of dollars can be flown larger distances and can take good video/pics. They can't however, drag explosives or missiles along with them.

Range + speed + decent payload = sophisticated vehicle. Something Iranians could build, but not Houthis. And if Houthis had launched them, why did they fly through Kuwaiti air space and hit the facilities from the north and not the south?

 

[Derec]

Trump has gone from despising SA to being their chums. One really has to wonder if he has any idea what he's doing, particularly in light of his revolving-door cabinet.

It's pretty clear he does not.

or personal cash flow.

He is too short-sighted! Saudi Arabia already has tall towers (next world's tallest tower is already under construction in Jeddah, and while Americans are involved, Trump is not), but imagine the real estate opportunities if there is regime change in Iran! A Trump Tower in the center of Tehran. Or even better, a 5 star Trump Hotel in the coastal city of Shiraz, with a wine bar on the roof. With an infinity pool, like that triple tower in Singapore. Opportunities are endless!

We'll see if any incontrovertible evidence of Iranian action in these bombings is produced. I don't think we'll see any, even if it's there, and only because he doesn't want to see it, which is the same reason Bolton is gone. And that's not a conspiracy theory, just politics.

Well he made a lot of hay about being against the Iraq war, contra Hillary who voted for it. And remember that Hillary wanted to impose a no fly zone in Syria while Trump largely stayed out of it, leaving it to Putin and Rouhani.
Trump was the peacenik candidate of 2016.

 

[Derec]

Maybe it was this?

That was probably the immediate cause of the split, but Bolton is a major Iran hawk, so he would have disagreed with the decision not to retaliate over the downed drone, deepening the rift between himself and Trump.

 

[Derec]

Wow. A twenty cent spike as 'proof'.

20 cent spike is proof that this is hardly a matter that only affects Saudi Arabia. It affects the worldwide oil markets.
And this was a relatively minor attack that Saudis could buffer with their reserves. Next time we may not be so lucky.

That's less than a couple cups of Starbucks per tank. Surely that's going to cause you to emotionally meltdown.

Nobody is melting down dude.

Convenient Chart! It leaves out US output while you claim wrongly we are a net importer which we aren't.

You are embarrassing yourself with your ignorance dude. US is most definitely a net importer. Yes, US massively increased production due to the shale revolution (note that many Dems want to ban fracking though, jeopardizing that) which reduced our net imports, but we still consume more than we produce.

Wow Iraq is left off chart with its over four million barrels a day output.

Yes, Iraq should have been on this chart. But this is a chart of oil EXPORTS, not production. Iraq exports about 3 Mbbl/d, which should have put it on the chart, but it doesn't change my point, which is that KSA is by far the biggest oil exporter.

Even with corrupt communists in charge Venezuela output is 1.4 million bbl/day and North Sea production is about 2.2 million bbl/day.

Again, the chart is about EXPORTS. Venezuela exports only about 0.8 Mbbl/d these days.
And again, my point is that KSA is by far the biggest oil exporter.

When you want to make a 'point' you match Trump. Sad.

Nope. You just don't understand the difference between total production and exports.

 

[fromderinside]

20 cent spike is proof that this is hardly a matter that only affects Saudi Arabia. It affects the worldwide oil markets.
And this was a relatively minor attack that Saudis could buffer with their reserves. Next time we may not be so lucky.

Convenient Chart! It leaves out US output while you claim wrongly we are a net importer which we aren't.

You are embarrassing yourself with your ignorance dude. US is most definitely a net importer. Yes, US massively increased production due to the shale revolution (note that many Dems want to ban fracking though, jeopardizing that) which reduced our net imports, but we still consume more than we produce.

EYUP

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/30/US_Net_Gas_Imports.svg

Oh wait. You're wrong again.

 

[Derec]

[graph of exports of natural gas]

Oh wait. You're wrong again.

No, I am not! That chart shows exports of NATURAL GAS, not of CRUDE OIL. Note that the quantities are given in terms of cubic feet, not barrels. So not only do you not understand the difference between production and exports, you also do not understand the difference between oil and natural gas. Yes, US has recently become a net exporter of natural gas thanks to the (villainized by Dems) shale revolution/fracking, but I never claimed otherwise, since we were talking about oil.

The graph you posted can be found here. Pay attention to the caption.
 United States energy independence

A graph of oil exports would be, for example:

From here.
As you can see, net imports decreased as US domestic production increased (something most Democratic candidates want to put an end to by banning fracking and drilling on federal lands), but net imports are still very much positive.

I.e.:
United States is a net oil importer!!!

 

[Toni]

[graph of exports of natural gas]

Oh wait. You're wrong again.

No, I am not! That chart shows exports of NATURAL GAS, not of CRUDE OIL. Note that the quantities are given in terms of cubic feet, not barrels. So not only do you not understand the difference between production and exports, you also do not understand the difference between oil and natural gas. Yes, US has recently become a net exporter of natural gas thanks to the (villainized by Dems) shale revolution/fracking, but I never claimed otherwise, since we were talking about oil.

The graph you posted can be found here. Pay attention to the caption.
 United States energy independence

A graph of oil exports would be, for example:
View attachment 23871
From here.
As you can see, net imports decreased as US domestic production increased (something most Democratic candidates want to put an end to by banning fracking and drilling on federal lands), but net imports are still very much positive.

I.e.:
United States is a net oil importer!!!
View attachment 23872

Not if the US retains a large portion of its production. Note that production far outstrips imports or exports.

 

[ZiprHead]

Just announced - Bonespurs is sending troops to the middle east.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Just announced - Bonespurs is sending troops to the middle east.

Sounds like technical assistance primarily, more help to the Saudis because they are incapable and unwilling do do their own marching. More money for Trump too. Another win-win for the Profiteer in Chief.

 

[barbos]

I don't see how this export-import thing is relevant.
Anyway, it seems for rebels to be able to take credit they have to have 1000km range UAVs. Which is possible. it's just a small plane with GPS.
But being able to execute it on such a scale with that level of success without help of iranians seems somewhat incredible.

 

[Derec]

I don't see how this export-import thing is relevant.

I just said that KSA is by far the biggest oil exporter to underline that it is important for the world economy but then fromderinside made it a whole thing by confusing exports with production and oil with gas. And then refusing to admit that he was wrong.

Anyway, it seems for rebels to be able to take credit they have to have 1000km range UAVs. Which is possible. it's just a small plane with GPS.
But being able to execute it on such a scale with that level of success without help of iranians seems somewhat incredible.

Especially when the drones come from the direction opposite of Yemen.

 

[Derec]

More money for Trump too. Another win-win for the Profiteer in Chief.

How exactly?
1. Station more troops in the Middle East
2. ????
3. Profit!

 

[Derec]

Not if the US retains a large portion of its production. Note that production far outstrips imports or exports.

You know, the concept of net exports is very simple. I am truly baffled that both you and fromderinside have such trouble with it.
Net exports are simply (gross) exports - gross (imports). Net imports are the inverse, (gross) imports - (gross) exports. We generally use the term that gives a positive value.
To use the rightmost data points on that graph [reading off the graph, real numbers might be little different], i.e. 2017, net imports = 10 Mbbl/d - 5.2 Mbbl/d = 4.8 Mbbl/d. Which is a lot of net imports!

Now, yes, US produces (thanks to the shale revolution/fracking that many Dems want to ban!) a lot of oil these days. But we consume even more, which is why we are a net importer.

And if you consume more than you produce domestically, you have to import. Hence, net imports are also consumption - production. So for 2017, net imports = 19.5 Mbbl/d - 14.7 Mbbl/d = 4.8 Mbbl/d.

A pretty easy concept, really.

 

[barbos]

More money for Trump too. Another win-win for the Profiteer in Chief.

How exactly?
1. Station more troops in the Middle East
2. ????
3. Profit!

Troops are stationed in Troops Trump Hotel

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

More money for Trump too. Another win-win for the Profiteer in Chief.

How exactly?
1. Station more troops in the Middle East
2. ????
3. Profit!

Trumpo keeps his good ties with the Saudis, they keep staying in his hotels. Keeps that good business relationship with more big spenders so he can expand his brand. It's just good business.

We're supposed to find out next week the nature of the new deployment, but it seems likely to be advisory, technical, we tell them how to operate their systems so they don't look so stupid and vulnerable again.

My time with Uncle Sam was spent in air defense. The way it basically worked then and still does today is that the Saudis hire us to do their work. They are just too dumb or unwilling to put their own boots on the ground or learn how a missile system works. We did it all then and we continue to do it all. If there was actually a hot war between the Saudis and Iran it would not be pretty for the Saudis. It wouldn't even be a fight. Iran and the Saudis know this and the Saudis know they have us in their pocket.