"Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

[bilby]

link

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.

I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!

Well, it's been 20 days.

IF asymptomatic infected people are able to pass this on at any significant rate, and IF the asymptomatic but infectious period is around two weeks, THEN by now we should be seeing an explosion of cases presenting in the US, Europe, Australia, etc - all the places where small numbers of cases were reported three weeks ago.

So where are these cases?

The Chinese national who was hospitalised on the Gold Coast had been in Melbourne for some days, and then flew into Coolangatta before presenting to the hospital; So the absence of cases in Melbourne, or amongst the other passengers on that internal flight, strongly suggests that this disease isn't sufficiently communicable, or isn't sufficiently dangerous, to be a major problem - at least, not an existential threat to humanity.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Well, it's a viral outbreak. Countries with modern health care systems and open governments are able to deal with those quite effectively. What let it get out of control in China was their clamping down on the information about it early on and not allowing their heath care systems to prepare for it until way after it had gotten out of hand. That's not going to be a situation which repeats itself in other areas it's spreading to.

 

[Worldtraveller]

I'm rooting for coronovirus!

 

[PyramidHead]

I'm rooting for coronovirus!

Absolute depraved sociopathic bullshit

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I'm rooting for coronovirus!

Absolute depraved sociopathic bullshit

Or comedy. Channeling Jimmy Higgins perhaps.

 

[steve_bank]

The doctor that raised the alarm was initially arrested for speaking on it without permission. The report said it was for 'Interfering with social order'. I think it is the difference between central and distributed control and authority. Washington state initialed action on its own behalf. No federal permission required.

 

[barbos]

Dead 1,018
infected 43,101

 

[barbos]

link

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.

I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!

Well, it's been 20 days.

IF asymptomatic infected people are able to pass this on at any significant rate, and IF the asymptomatic but infectious period is around two weeks, THEN by now we should be seeing an explosion of cases presenting in the US, Europe, Australia, etc - all the places where small numbers of cases were reported three weeks ago.

So where are these cases?

The Chinese national who was hospitalised on the Gold Coast had been in Melbourne for some days, and then flew into Coolangatta before presenting to the hospital; So the absence of cases in Melbourne, or amongst the other passengers on that internal flight, strongly suggests that this disease isn't sufficiently communicable, or isn't sufficiently dangerous, to be a major problem - at least, not an existential threat to humanity.

I don't think superiority of western health care explains such a disparity in infections rates.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Well, it's been 20 days.

IF asymptomatic infected people are able to pass this on at any significant rate, and IF the asymptomatic but infectious period is around two weeks, THEN by now we should be seeing an explosion of cases presenting in the US, Europe, Australia, etc - all the places where small numbers of cases were reported three weeks ago.

So where are these cases?

The Chinese national who was hospitalised on the Gold Coast had been in Melbourne for some days, and then flew into Coolangatta before presenting to the hospital; So the absence of cases in Melbourne, or amongst the other passengers on that internal flight, strongly suggests that this disease isn't sufficiently communicable, or isn't sufficiently dangerous, to be a major problem - at least, not an existential threat to humanity.

I don't think superiority of western health care explains such a disparity in infections rates.

I'm not aware of markets in the U.S. selling dead bats, monkeys, snakes, and lizards for food. This is common in China. Make of it what you will.

 

[barbos]

Well, it's been 20 days.

IF asymptomatic infected people are able to pass this on at any significant rate, and IF the asymptomatic but infectious period is around two weeks, THEN by now we should be seeing an explosion of cases presenting in the US, Europe, Australia, etc - all the places where small numbers of cases were reported three weeks ago.

So where are these cases?

The Chinese national who was hospitalised on the Gold Coast had been in Melbourne for some days, and then flew into Coolangatta before presenting to the hospital; So the absence of cases in Melbourne, or amongst the other passengers on that internal flight, strongly suggests that this disease isn't sufficiently communicable, or isn't sufficiently dangerous, to be a major problem - at least, not an existential threat to humanity.

I don't think superiority of western health care explains such a disparity in infections rates.

I'm not aware of markets in the U.S. selling dead bats, monkeys, snakes, and lizards for food. This is common in China. Make of it what you will.

According to last research it was dead pangolin. In any case it explains why it started in China, does not explain why it stay there it seems.
Some suggested bad air quality and therefore compromised lungs have some effect on the spread of the virus. Plus hygiene habits, exacerbated by population density.

 

[fromderinside]

Unfortunately hearing something with one ear isn't very useful for localization.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I'm not aware of markets in the U.S. selling dead bats, monkeys, snakes, and lizards for food. This is common in China. Make of it what you will.

According to last research it was dead pangolin. In any case it explains why it started in China, does not explain why it stay there it seems.
Some suggested bad air quality and therefore compromised lungs have some effect on the spread of the virus. Plus hygiene habits, exacerbated by population density.

...and poor government intervention?

 

[barbos]

I'm not aware of markets in the U.S. selling dead bats, monkeys, snakes, and lizards for food. This is common in China. Make of it what you will.

According to last research it was dead pangolin. In any case it explains why it started in China, does not explain why it stay there it seems.
Some suggested bad air quality and therefore compromised lungs have some effect on the spread of the virus. Plus hygiene habits, exacerbated by population density.

...and poor government intervention?

You honestly believe they had a chance to contain it? I get that they could have prevented it but once it had started there was vert little they could have done to contain it.

 

[Treedbear]

...
Some suggested bad air quality and therefore compromised lungs have some effect on the spread of the virus. Plus hygiene habits, exacerbated by population density.

And then there's smoking in China:

Smoking in China is prevalent, as the People's Republic of China is the world's largest consumer and producer of tobacco: there are 350 million Chinese smokers,[1] and China produces 42% of the world's cigarettes. The China National Tobacco Corporation is by sales the largest single manufacturer of tobacco products in the world and boasts a monopoly in Mainland China generating between 7 and 10% of government revenue. Within the Chinese guanxi system, tobacco is still a ubiquitous gift acceptable on any occasion, particularly outside urban areas. Tobacco control legislation does exist, but public enforcement is rare to non-existent outside the most highly internationalized cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing. Outside the mainland however, enforcement is strong in the Hong Kong special administrative region. Furthermore, outside the largest cities in China, smoking is considered socially acceptable anywhere at any time, even if it is technically illegal.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

...
Some suggested bad air quality and therefore compromised lungs have some effect on the spread of the virus. Plus hygiene habits, exacerbated by population density.

And then there's smoking in China:

Smoking in China is prevalent, as the People's Republic of China is the world's largest consumer and producer of tobacco: there are 350 million Chinese smokers,[1] and China produces 42% of the world's cigarettes. The China National Tobacco Corporation is by sales the largest single manufacturer of tobacco products in the world and boasts a monopoly in Mainland China generating between 7 and 10% of government revenue. Within the Chinese guanxi system, tobacco is still a ubiquitous gift acceptable on any occasion, particularly outside urban areas. Tobacco control legislation does exist, but public enforcement is rare to non-existent outside the most highly internationalized cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing. Outside the mainland however, enforcement is strong in the Hong Kong special administrative region. Furthermore, outside the largest cities in China, smoking is considered socially acceptable anywhere at any time, even if it is technically illegal.

Excellent call. A correlation study would be most interesting.

 

[barbos]

...
Some suggested bad air quality and therefore compromised lungs have some effect on the spread of the virus. Plus hygiene habits, exacerbated by population density.

And then there's smoking in China:

Smoking in China is prevalent, as the People's Republic of China is the world's largest consumer and producer of tobacco: there are 350 million Chinese smokers,[1] and China produces 42% of the world's cigarettes. The China National Tobacco Corporation is by sales the largest single manufacturer of tobacco products in the world and boasts a monopoly in Mainland China generating between 7 and 10% of government revenue. Within the Chinese guanxi system, tobacco is still a ubiquitous gift acceptable on any occasion, particularly outside urban areas. Tobacco control legislation does exist, but public enforcement is rare to non-existent outside the most highly internationalized cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing. Outside the mainland however, enforcement is strong in the Hong Kong special administrative region. Furthermore, outside the largest cities in China, smoking is considered socially acceptable anywhere at any time, even if it is technically illegal.

That could be consistent with statistics that victims are mostly men. I am assuming women smoke less.

 

[spikepipsqueak]

I think you are right. It looks more like a quarantine ward to keep the infected away from the public. Quarantining people infected with serious communicable diseases is a quite old policy. During the plague in Europe there were islands designated where infected or those suspected of having been exposed were sent. There was a leper colony on an island in Hawaii until the mid 1900s. Today, there are several cruise ships that are quarantined to keep those aboard that are infected and those who may have been exposed from mixing with the general population.

But when you fail to make the quarantine at least as comfortable as staying at home it doesn't work very well.

Flu-type patients really just need to be kept warm and hydrated and a place to feel awful in. You could stack them, unless they get to a point of needing breathing assistance and specialised nursing, or get better. That type of accommodation is fine, for those in the early or recovery stages. There would be medical assistance for those needing it, though I bet those resources are stretched thin.

The doctor that raised the alarm was initially arrested for speaking on it without permission. The report said it was for 'Interfering with social order'. I think it is the difference between central and distributed control and authority. Washington state initialed action on its own behalf. No federal permission required.

That doctor has since died of coronavirus.

 

[steve_bank]

In the news Some Americans being evacuated are infected.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well, it's a viral outbreak. Countries with modern health care systems and open governments are able to deal with those quite effectively. What let it get out of control in China was their clamping down on the information about it early on and not allowing their heath care systems to prepare for it until way after it had gotten out of hand. That's not going to be a situation which repeats itself in other areas it's spreading to.

Here we are very aggressive about contact tracing and the sort of people likely to be exposed aren't going to be afraid of the authorities. Here medical people take biosafety seriously. We pounce on something like this and keep the R₀ low enough that we are able to stomp on it.

China has none of these and they had a banquet with 40,000 families in Hubei a few days before this blew up. Chinese eating habits are a big problem for this sort of thing--communal dishes, generally taken with one's own chopsticks rather than serving utensils in the dish. Whenever we are over there my wife fights against this, getting a separate set of chopsticks for each dish but it's hard to even get her family to go along.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't think superiority of western health care explains such a disparity in infections rates.

I'm not aware of markets in the U.S. selling dead bats, monkeys, snakes, and lizards for food. This is common in China. Make of it what you will.

While the wet markets were the likely source it is unlikely they are involved in the spread of the disease. Also, look at that picture of the "hospital". No infection barriers. If your symptoms weren't actually caused by Covid-19 you're probably going to end up infected anyway. The way it's being handled the hospital will be a last resort.