"Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

[zorq]

It is in my city now. There are five confirmed cases within two kilometers of my home. I got about 20 safety alerts on my phone today warning me of all the restaurants and transportation hubs the infected people visited in the last couple days. I usually only get one or two of those things a week, and only if some exceptional weather is in the forecast.

There was huge explosion in Korea this week. It went from 15 to more than 200. I can't say I am very surprised. In my observation, I would say that only about 10% of the population here covers their mouths when they cough or sneeze. They are also quite lazy when it comes to hand washing. It is so frustrating that little precautions like those have never really caught on here. Of course face masks are a big thing here even when there aren't novel pandemics spreading. But I think that these are not terribly effective when it comes to tiny airborne viruses. They also don't do anything to help in a restaurant setting.

I am not too worried about myself or my wife though. I think we have pretty good immune systems and stay healthy-ish. If we get it, we have a great chance of beating it.

Cheers

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But to be clear I don't know where barbos gets his data.

Why the "but"? Did you also mistrust American government statistics about the health of its citizens during the H1N1 outbreak of 2009? If not, why not?

Thankfully this virus wasn’t super deadly because China fucked up on containment.

 

[steve_bank]

The first American was here in Washington state. He was hospitalized about 30 miles from where I live. People are staring to wear surgical masks in Seattle.

You would think the Chinese leadership at this point would accept the modern world is interconnected and interdependent. They can not act like an isolated kingdom. There are international responsibilities and obligations.

 

[PyramidHead]

Genuinely curious as to what China could or should have done differently, especially when comparing this to the H1N1 outbreak in 2009

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Genuinely curious as to what China could or should have done differently, especially when comparing this to the H1N1 outbreak in 2009

1) Truthful numbers.

2) It looks like my suspicion from some time ago might have been right: A biolab accident rather than natural cases.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

 

[Copernicus]

Genuinely curious as to what China could or should have done differently, especially when comparing this to the H1N1 outbreak in 2009

They might have had a much better chance of slowing it down if they had a more open, criticism-tolerant society, but I don't believe that President-for-Life Xi can conceive of that. So low-level officials are always going to punish anyone who hints at doing or saying anything that casts the Party as flawed in its methods of governance. In this case, they instinctively suppressed information about the outbreak until it could no longer be suppressed. By that time, huge numbers of infected tourists had pollinated tourist spots throughout Asia.

 

[steve_bank]

Genuinely curious as to what China could or should have done differently, especially when comparing this to the H1N1 outbreak in 2009

You can not possibly be serious. The doctor who initially spoke out about it was initially arrested. The Chines xenophobia precluded asking for western help. And that face saving image protection horseshit. China demanded an apology for some of reporting on the situation. Thousands of people are dying and China is playing politics.

That says it all about Chinese government.

 

[barbos]

Genuinely curious as to what China could or should have done differently, especially when comparing this to the H1N1 outbreak in 2009

1) Truthful numbers.

2) It looks like my suspicion from some time ago might have been right: A biolab accident rather than natural cases.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

 

[zorq]

It is in my city now. There are five confirmed cases within two kilometers of my home.

There was huge explosion in Korea this week. It went from 15 to more than 200.

More than 200 more declared infected in Korea yesterday pushing the number over 430, including 19 in my city. What a mess.

 

[rjh01]

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

It is not a problem with the Chinese, it is a problem with the source of material. The New York Post is a Murdoch newspaper. Any Murdoch newspaper is not a very reliable source.

 

[barbos]

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

It is not a problem with the Chinese, it is a problem with the source of material. The New York Post is a Murdoch newspaper. Any Murdoch newspaper is not a very reliable source.

well, they claim it's not a speculation and that at least in once case "researchers" was convicted of selling lab animals (monkeys) for a total $1mil

 

[Copernicus]

It is not a problem with the Chinese, it is a problem with the source of material. The New York Post is a Murdoch newspaper. Any Murdoch newspaper is not a very reliable source.

well, they claim it's not a speculation and that at least in once case "researchers" was convicted of selling lab animals (monkeys) for a total $1mil

It is not really a good idea to use the NY Post. They have a reputation as a tabloid newspaper, and they have worked hard to maintain that reputation for several decades now. Occasionally, they have accurate reporting, but you always need to verify from other sources.

 

[barbos]

I doubt they would flat out lie. Put some conspiracy theories - fine, but flat out making up facts - doubtful.
And Chinese themselves are saying their original stories were BS.

 

[4321lynx]

It is not a problem with the Chinese, it is a problem with the source of material. The New York Post is a Murdoch newspaper. Any Murdoch newspaper is not a very reliable source.

well, they claim it's not a speculation and that at least in once case "researchers" was convicted of selling lab animals (monkeys) for a total $1mil

It is not really a good idea to use the NY Post. They have a reputation as a tabloid newspaper, and they have worked hard to maintain that reputation for several decades now. Occasionally, they have accurate reporting, but you always need to verify from other sources.

Same applies to Chinese sources.

 

[bilby]

I doubt they would flat out lie. Put some conspiracy theories - fine, but flat out making up facts - doubtful.
And Chinese themselves are saying their original stories were BS.

There's plenty of documented cases of Murdoch tabloids flat out making up facts.

 

[Rhea]

It has been very interesting from a mathematical standpoint to watch these numbers. And from a psycological standpoint watching the reactions.

One part that interests me is the "mortality rate" which is an estimate up until the outbreak is at steady state. For example, calculating the number of OUTCOMES is the deaths divided by deaths plus recovereds - currently showing a 10% mortality rate, though this is down from 20% a couple of weeks ago. Not the deaths divided by the number of cases. Using diagnosed cases info, you'd have to calculate in the number of weeks between diagnosis and death or recovery (so far tyupically 2-3 weeks), and then subtract anyone diagnosed between those times to be accurate. Worldometers has a nice discussion of it. They also have a very informative COVID-19 data page.

One piece I read by the initially reporting doctor who has since died is that people in critical condition usually get there in the 2nd week of symptoms. Death usually occurs in week 3. If you survive 3 weeks you are usually okay. (That's a long time to be sick!) People who do not get to critical condition are usually sick just 2 weeks. (That's still a long time to be sick!).

Then looking at numbers to calculate the effect of various quarantines, airline closures, public closures, etc versus the time they were implemented minus incubation period. It's fascinating stuff numerically.

So add that in to government reactions and public reactions - the psych part. Are governments reacting appropriately? Are people?

Then add that in to the anecdotes - like the Italian couple diagnosed the day after they went and visited their child in the hospital, or the Korean cult lying about their travel history and continuing to proselytize to the public.


Then there's the comparison to the flu - and how many more people are dying from it, except it has to include how many more are exposed to it. And then just doing the math on, so say they are the same, it's like there are two flus happening at the same time and that is a big deal. Will it increase flu vaccine rates so that even if the flu vaccine is only 50% effective, that is totally worth doing it? What about if you get flu and COVID-19 at the same time?


A lot to watch and ponder.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

California city fights coronavirus quarantine plan; judge halts moving patients to Costa Mesa

They said in court documents that local officials were not included in the planning effort and wanted to know why the Fairview Developmental Center was considered a suitable quarantine site and what kind of safeguards were in place to prevent the possible transmission of the virus that has spread worldwide.

“The city has not been part of any of the process that led to the consideration of the site, and it would be unfair to not include us in this kind of significant decision that has great impact on our community," Mayor Katrina Foley told the Orange County Register.

Interesting stuff. The feds don't really seem to know what they're doing either. They're just reacting.

 

[steve_bank]

Rod Sterling covered it in Twilight Zone stories. Rational individuals given the right circumstances turn into scared mobs.

The last reports I heard said the CDC says we may be headed towards a pandemic.

I watched a documentary on how bad TB really was. People were warehoused.

I for one will practice my Vulcan like detachment and observe with interest....

 

[Keith&Co.]

The feds don't really seem to know what they're doing either. They're just reacting.

In this administration? Any voice for a rational approach is silenced as partisan attack on Il Trumpce.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

It is not a problem with the Chinese, it is a problem with the source of material. The New York Post is a Murdoch newspaper. Any Murdoch newspaper is not a very reliable source.

While it's the first I heard of a guy busted for selling the animals I have heard of other leaks from biolabs due to atrocious biosafety. Furthermore, there's an extreme culture of get away with whatever you can. While neither proves the alleged crime it's quite consistent with what else we have seen from China.