Three weeks ago, every Republican and almost every Democrat I talked to in the state save for a handful of fellow "radical progressives" (ie literate, engaged citizens) told me it was "paranoia" to suppose that Trump could or would unilaterally end the Department of Education. Two weeks ago, our district chancellor ordered us all to stop "spreading rumors" about the likelihood of a closure, because it was freaking out the students and might "negatively impact enrollment trends".
Well, here we are. And wouldn't you know it. Trump did exactly what he told everyone he was planning to do. It will absolutely affect enrollment trends.
Clue me in. I'm assuming you're talking about community college or university enrollments? What drives the impact - is it grants and loans? What did Dept. of Ed do prior to this that materially affects post-secondary schooling?
Yes. The Department of Education plays quite a few functions in keeping education afloat, from providing students with direct grants and scholarships, funding student work-study positions, facilitating certain loans, providing critical sources of research funding to the R1s that allow them to take on far more graduate students than they would otherwise, and funding outreach programs to underfunded districts. In theory, none of those functions have been ended as such, but they have all been put on pause and there is no hope of any awards reaching students in time for the second set of Spring term disbursements. They are on the mercy of their institutions, who may be straight up unable to afford much grace. Trump will be trying to cancel as much as he can for the future, in particular scientific research on any topic he considers politically driven or that might be seen as encouraging "DEI", as he promised to do during his campaign. The DOE also collects data on enrollment and many other trends, and with most of the people who collect and analyze that data (seemingly?) fired over the last week, who knows when any of us will get our hands on it? Luckily California gathers and processes a lot of our own data of that kind, but not all states have been so farseeing as to maximize autonomy in that arena. In general, if he cuts the already slim staff of the DOE (only 4000 souls managed the entire department under the Biden regime!) down to some fraction of what it was, expect delays in all of the department's core functions for the next many years, as China and Europe cheerfully suck up all the international capital and prestige that US colleges once enjoyed, makign them more and more of a draw for our best and brightest who do not want their research defunded. If you were thinking of beginning a research project right now and had the flexibility, would you be trying for an NSF grant that might never be awarded, or apply to a European program that is drastically more certain to be followed through on?
Presuming his plan proceeds unhindered, which is
not a given, or even likely. But when it comes to enrollment and funding, uncertainty is almost worse than certainty. Uncertain people don't like to take big risks, surprisingly enough. A lot of our students and potential student aren't exactly huge news readers, they get all of this through the grapevine and thus receive a confused and usually greatly exaggerated version of events.
In the community colleges, fear of ICE raids, or neighorhood posses and the like harassing students, are also playing a role. As yet (thank god) unfounded worries, but not irrational. Again the state of California is in a slightly better position, having explicitly protected student privacy and defined clear rules and boundaries of interaction with law enforcement, but students in some other states have no such protection or support at the state level.
Alabama is a good example of a state that is looking incedibly endangered by recent events. A single university system employs about one tenth of the state's workforce and generates roughly a fourth of Alabama's GDP as well as doubling as a major health care provider, so even a small shock to the system could have disastrous long term effects even for people with no direct connection to the school, but they have no plan in place for coutnering the federal attack on their solubility, and very few meaningful state protections against abuse of governmental powers.
