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Democrats 2020

PyramidHead said:
...honesty, consistency, anti-imperialism, theory of change, grassroots support, incorruptibility...
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No one man will change DC. The largest issue I see with non-pragmatic liberals is that they seem to think the White House is where legislation is written, passed, and executed.

The second largest issue is that they seem to ignore just how much the right-wing apparently is willing to hold their nose. This was perhaps excusable prior to Trump getting elected, but post Trump, the left-wing needs to realize that the right-wing will vote for almost anyone because of Roe v Wade, instead of voting for the Democrat (rather they voted third party) to keep a woefully unsuitable man from becoming President. So there won't be any turnover from the right-wing voting for the moderate Democrat. This means we need the Independents voting for the Dems. The difference in 2016 for independents voting for Trump over Clinton was approximately 80,000, more than the difference.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
PyramidHead said:
...honesty, consistency, anti-imperialism, theory of change, grassroots support, incorruptibility...
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No one man will change DC. The largest issue I see with non-pragmatic liberals is that they seem to think the White House is where legislation is written, passed, and executed.

The second largest issue is that they seem to ignore just how much the right-wing apparently is willing to hold their nose. This was perhaps excusable prior to Trump getting elected, but post Trump, the left-wing needs to realize that the right-wing will vote for almost anyone because of Roe v Wade, instead of voting for the Democrat (rather they voted third party) to keep a woefully unsuitable man from becoming President. So there won't be any turnover from the right-wing voting for the moderate Democrat. This means we need the Independents voting for the Dems. The difference in 2016 for independents voting for Trump over Clinton was approximately 80,000, more than the difference.
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None of what you wrote is true, including what you think the Sanders movement thinks it takes to get legislation through a hostile system of institutional barriers. Hint: it's the campaign slogan
 
Also, why is it simply assumed that moderates and Republicans won't vote for Bernie, when polls in red states show him beating Trump by larger margins than his more moderate opponents? Maybe it's not moderation on the classical left/right spectrum that moderates want, but other qualities such as those I mentioned in ellipses above, which could explain why Bernie is consistently the politician with the most favorable opinion in the US. The latest poll from Georgia, which went to Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012, has Bernie beating Trump by more than Biden does. Warren loses to Trump in the same poll, and so does Pete. This isn't about moderation in the sense you and Harry are thinking. It's about integrity and, dare I say it, electability.

zogby.JPG
 
I can't make sense of Zogby's numbers.

"Sanders cut into Trump's base by winning with men (Sanders leads 51% to 41%)"

How does Sanders win Georgia by just 5 points, while winning men by 10 points? That'd mean Sanders loses women to Trump. Sanders winning men in Georgia by that much would be a 33 pt swing verse 2016. Clinton won women by 11 pts.
 
Uh, its a poll, a snapshot of the moment, a small sampling of probable voters which can, despite corrective measures, be unrepresentative of what is the actual sentiment at the time. There's that. Then poll understanding is a game where believing is to be suspended awaiting other polls including exit polls. If you really want to gamble go to a Casino.
 
fromderinside said:
Uh, its a poll, a snapshot of the moment, a small sampling of probable voters which can, despite corrective measures, be unrepresentative of what is the actual sentiment at the time. There's that. Then poll understanding is a game where believing is to be suspended awaiting other polls including exit polls. If you really want to gamble go to a Casino.
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You are of course correct in general, but the point was to show that there are data points that grate against the narrative of Sanders as a fringe candidate who only appeals to the left. Regardless of whether the poll is accurate in terms of magnitudes, it at least provides a direct comparison among the candidates. It could be the case that none of the candidates are preferable to Trump in the minds of Georgians who end up voting, or that all of them are. The poll simply shows that within that spectrum, the more centrist candidates do not have the advantage that is claimed for them by pundits.
 
Rhea said:
PyramidHead said:
Another reason Bernard is the only choice for president
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"Only" ?

Not best, but "only"?

That is so weird.
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Indeed, especially since he voted for the same "stop and frisk" legislation that is going to kill Bloomberg, has manifest health issues that are ripe fruit for Republican picking and has refused to go on the offensive regarding guns...
God help us all if Bernie (for whom I caucused in 2016) is our ONLY choice. :rolleyes:

I admit that I think Bernie is much stronger on economic inequality issues than the rest of the field. I also fear that because of that, should he actually get the nomination, there are forces that will silently rejoice should he meet an untimely (but of course not unusual at his age) demise, and identifying the polonium tracks could take decades.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
PyramidHead said:
I know, being an actual leftist and evaluating primary candidates based on those principles is highly weird.
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You should try it some time. Which one is the most anti-war? It ain't Bernie.
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Dude: please don't tell me that you're not nominating Tulsi for most anti-war? I'm sure due to that little war in Syria that you aren't!
 
Harry Bosch said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Which one is the most anti-war? It ain't Bernie.
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Dude: please don't tell me that you're not nominating Tulsi for most anti-war? I'm sure due to that little war in Syria that you aren't!
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Being antiwar? That seems to be the main thing that TG is running on, and it isn't getting her very far.

She has also announced that she won't run for Representative again -- since she's not likely to be elected President, she'll be out of a job. What does she plan to do?
 
lpetrich said:
Harry Bosch said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Which one is the most anti-war? It ain't Bernie.
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Dude: please don't tell me that you're not nominating Tulsi for most anti-war? I'm sure due to that little war in Syria that you aren't!
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Being antiwar? That seems to be the main thing that TG is running on, and it isn't getting her very far.

She has also announced that she won't run for Representative again -- since she's not likely to be elected President, she'll be out of a job. What does she plan to do?
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She's anti certain wars. She has no problem with all the deaths in Syria and the war against Al-Qaeda.
 
lpetrich said:
Harry Bosch said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Which one is the most anti-war? It ain't Bernie.
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Dude: please don't tell me that you're not nominating Tulsi for most anti-war? I'm sure due to that little war in Syria that you aren't!
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Being antiwar? That seems to be the main thing that TG is running on, and it isn't getting her very far.

She has also announced that she won't run for Representative again -- since she's not likely to be elected President, she'll be out of a job. What does she plan to do?
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War secretary?
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
No one man will change DC. The largest issue I see with non-pragmatic liberals is that they seem to think the White House is where legislation is written, passed, and executed.
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I agree. I get annoyed at all the "AOC for President" people. I think that AOC is doing a great job in where she is at now, and I think that she ought to stay there in the near future. If anything, I think that AOC is a good advertisement for a career in Congress.

What JH said was also the calculation of certain 2016 Bernie Sanders campaigners. They looked at the Obama years, and they decided that even the best possible president could not do much without Congress helping him out instead of obstructing him (or her, as might someday be the case). So they formed a political action committee that they called Brand New Congress. They proposed to operate like a European-style political party, though inside of the two main American parties. They would have a unified platform and unified messaging, and they planned to send out some 400 candidates, to challenge nearly every open seat.

They wanted people who had good records in community-based activism, and who would not be in it for their own egos. They ended up recruiting only 30 people, with one of them running as a Republican, one as an Independent, and all the others as Democrats. Only 10 of them won in the primaries, all Democrats, and only one of them won the general election: AOC.

The second largest issue is that they seem to ignore just how much the right-wing apparently is willing to hold their nose.
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I agree also. Look at how all the Never Trumpers fell into line and became indistinguishable from Trumpies.
 
The thing that liberal Democrats never seem to understand (as Politesse and Jimmy Higgins demonstrate by assuming a coalition forming behind a candidate can only mean that candidate is expected to unilaterally fix everything) is that campaigns are not supposed to be factual predictions about what things will happen in a future administration. Campaigns are when you enter the negotiation process with your strongest hand rather than by immediately giving up any advantage you may have. I'll explain by using a central policy debate of the primary as an example.

The first point everybody has to acknowledge is this: Medicare for All will never pass in our system of government.

There is no incremental path to it, as the ACA should have proven to everyone. The courts are packed with Trump appointments who will strike it down or reverse it, and the health insurance industry still dictates the parameters of what we can hope for. No President will pass Medicare for All legislation in the current political climate. Period.

And do you know which candidate running for President is actually aware of this, as are his supporters? Bernard Goddamn Sanders. His movement is the only one with an awareness of one simple fact: Medicare for All is a weapon. It will never make through even a Democratic supermajority and stay alive long enough to be meaningful, for the simple reason that no health care policy has the potential to break the stagnant consensus of our petrified system. The system itself must be challenged and smashed, through popular mobilization and a rejuvenated labor movement. It will not go smoothly, and it will not be easy. Warren and her supporters, and anyone who like Rhea thinks that single payer health care can become a reality in America by taking baby steps through the minefield, are worse than useless in this fight; they don't even comprehend that the thing in their hand with a barrel and a trigger is a weapon, not some kind of oddly-shaped presidential stationary for drafting non-binding resolutions and making compromises. They don't grasp that this is a war, and surrendering your arms is exactly what loses wars. Medicare for All is the gauntlet that must be thrown down intact, not missing fingers and full of holes, because the point of throwing down a gauntlet is to make a bold statement.

Only Bernie thinks like this, and only his movement has the potential to break the logjam of our present political landscape, which is why he scares liberals with money. He threatens to shatter their cherished notion that working within the system to push forward savvy piecemeal reforms crafted by Harvard-educated elites is what this country needs, and reveals them for the gullible dupes they are. He is the only realist in the Democratic primary; the rest are hopelessly naive. And Elizabeth Warren's continued shedding of everything that makes Medicare for All an effective weapon is proof that she doesn't even know a war is going on, or worse, that she does and has chosen her side.
 
Elixir said:
Indeed, especially since he voted for the same "stop and frisk" legislation that is going to kill Bloomberg,
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Really? How did Bernie vote for a policy in NYC?
And I am really disappointed by Bloomberg for apologizing for stop&frisk. He will never win over the left fringe, so the apology doesn't even have a tactical benefit.

has manifest health issues that are ripe fruit for Republican picking
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True. A 78 year old who suffered a heart attack is not fit to run for president.

and has refused to go on the offensive regarding guns...
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His willingness to not follow all Democratic sacred cows, like in this case being against guns, is what I like most about Bernie. Or at least liked in 2016. In 2020 he has taken a lot more doctrinaire leftist positions on say identity politics and being anti-Israel (he even took Sharia and Hamas supporter Linda "Cockroach" Sarsour as a surrogate). It's just a matter of time he caves on guns, if he hasn't already.

and identifying the polonium tracks could take decades.
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Why would it take decades? If you want to detect Po-210 (half life: 138d), you will have an easier time detecting it sooner than later.
 
Class war was tried in Australia's recent elections and failed miserably. It frightened the shite out most people returning the government that was gone for all money according to most of the polling. In fact the Labor party was so cock sure of the result that bullshit Bill actually wrote a letter to the PM advising him to hand over the keys to the Lodge in an orderly manner.
 
Who won the November Democratic debate? Here are 4 winners and 3 losers. - Vox
Winners:
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Cory Booker
  • Stacey Abrams
Losers:
  • Joe Biden
  • Asylum seekers
  • Health care
At the Democratic debate, female moderators ask 2020 candidates about paid family leave - Vox
On Wednesday, something unheard of happened on the 2020 Democratic debate stage: Moderators asked candidates what they would do about high child care costs and the lack of paid parental leave in the US.

It just took five debates and a panel of all-women moderators for this to happen.
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Democratic debate: There is still no Democratic presidential frontrunner - Vox - Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg continue to be neck-and-neck.

Democratic debate: The single worst idea proposed at the debate - Vox - term limits for Congress. Several state legislatures now have them, and experience with them has not been good.
But even if congressional term limits were constitutional, they would still be a terrible idea. A 2006 report from the National Conference of State Legislatures examined states that imposed term limits on their state lawmakers. It found that term limits tend to increase the influence of lobbyists and lead to a “decline in civility” that “reduced legislators’ willingness and ability to compromise and engage in consensus building.”

Term-limited lawmakers, the NCSL explained, “have less time to get to know and trust one another” and “are less collegial and less likely to bond with their peers, particularly those from across the aisle.”

They also aren’t experienced enough to develop the knowledge and legislative skills they need to govern effectively. Term-limited lawmakers cannot spend enough time learning how the legislature works or mastering difficult policy issues. They also can’t rely on senior colleagues to give them this information because there are no senior colleagues.
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So the legislators become dependent on lobbyists, because lobbyists are not term limited.
 
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