Democrats 2020

[lpetrich]

Democratic Party Activists May Be Cooling On Warren And Warming To Biden | FiveThirtyEight
Looking at the numbers, it's hard to call it much of a trend.

Journey to power: The history of black voters, 1976 to 2020 - the share of black primary voters has increased from 14% in 1980 to 24% in 2016. Though going up to 21% in 1988 and dropping to 14% in 1992 before heading upward again.

The decade since that landmark Obama campaign has brought further changes to each party’s demographic makeup. The divide between white voters with college degrees and those without, a phenomenon that had long been building, has in the Trump-era turned into a gaping rupture. Within the Democratic Party, this has served to expand the influence of African American voters, who could make up a larger share of the 2020 primary electorate than ever before.

Opinion | Quiz: Let Us Predict Whether You’re a Democrat or a Republican - The New York Times

Most Democratic - The group most likely to be Democrats are black women older than about 30.

Reliable Republicans - White, religious Protestants lean Republican, but those who are male and live in the South are even more likely to identify with the party.

Sorting has occurred on both sides, but the Republican Party has tended more toward homogeneity: whiter, more Christian and more conservative. Democrats are a far more diverse party. So although the term “identity politics” is often wielded to criticize the Democrats for focusing on race and gender, Republicans are typically more susceptible to appeals based on their shared identity than Democrats, according to research by Julie Wronski and Lilliana Mason, political scientists at the University of Mississippi and the University of Maryland, College Park.

Personal identities have split the parties - From 1968 to 1978, white men who attended church frequently were 6 percentage points more likely to be a Democrat than a Republican. From 2008 to 2016, they were 43 points more likely to be Republican. The party identification of young, unmarried women stayed about the same — but the average American became significantly more likely to identify as Republican, magnifying the difference between these two groups.

...
“Religious” refers to those who said they attend church every week or almost every week.

The middle-aged black women are +91D, while the middle-aged religious heterosexual Southern white men are +75R.

I'm +48D. I tried scoring the Presidential candidates, and Bernie Sanders is +48D, Elizabeth Warren +24D, Joe Biden +46R, Kamala Harris +91D, Pete Buttigieg +7D. Of other politicians, Nancy Pelosi is +13R and AOC is +72D.

 

[Trausti]

So Castro is out.
Booker says: "Here's the reality. It seems like billionaires with bottomless checkbooks have a clearer path to the nomination than talented, experienced, qualified candidates" like Castro.

Good comment. It should help put Bloomberg and to a lesser extent Steyer in a negative light.

Ah, darn it. Who now will fight for the right of trans-women to get abortions?

 

[Derec]

I don’t want Bloomberg pulling so much as a vote from any other candidate. At least Steyer has put in the time and has been burning cash since Trump has been in office. Everyone else is putting in the time and miles.

I really can't stand Steyer. Luckily, he is not gaining support despite several debate appearances and many ads.

Bloomberg wants to win the presidency while getting lunch and a massage.

I really don't get his strategy unless he thinks Biden will mysteriously collapse and he will be there to swoop in and take over his lane.

 

[Derec]

So Castro is out.
Booker says: "Here's the reality. It seems like billionaires with bottomless checkbooks have a clearer path to the nomination than talented, experienced, qualified candidates" like Castro.

Good comment. It should help put Bloomberg and to a lesser extent Steyer in a negative light.

How does either one have a "clearer path" to nomination? Neither is anywhere close to being in the top tier.
In any case, Castro was on the debate stage since the Summer. He was hovering around 1% despite the attention he garnered being the only hispanic in the field. That's not the fault of Steyer and Bloomberg.

 

[Derec]

Another one bites the dust.

And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "I’m really proud of @JulianCastro and his campaign.
He ran with true purpose and intentionality. His team uplifted important conversations and took on issues that most candidates shy away from.
At their best, campaigns can be acts of service. Julián’s campaign exemplified that. https://t.co/rhiFyRgiPf" / Twitter

What, like wanting to decriminalize illegal border crossing when the illegal migration crisis demands that we take illegal crossings more seriously, not less?

In his campaign-farewell video, Julián Castro noted that the cops arrested Dylann Roof without hurting him, even after murdering 9 people. He stated that the cops ought to have done much better with Michael Brown and Tamir Rice and Aiyana Jones and Eric Garner and Laquan McDonald and Stephon Clark and Antonio Arce.

That's because Roof surrendered without fight. He didn't attack a police officer like not-so-gentle giant Michael Brown. What was the cop supposed to do? Fight him hand to hand, risking that Brown disarm him? Tamir Rice was a tragedy of errors on all sides, but it started with the orange tip being removed from his pellet gun, making it look like a firearm. Aiyana Jones' killing was accidental, but the people I hold most responsible are her uncle and father. They set the whole tragedy in motion by killing a high school kid. Eric Garner's death was also accidental and was largely the result of his poor health. The hold police had on him after he resisted arrest only triggered it. Note that his daughter died recently too - and just like her father she suffered from asthma. Laquan McDonald was armed with a knife and was menacing the neighborhood. When police showed up he attacked them. The cop in question should not have emptied his clip, but I think deadly force was justified.

Ken Thomas on Twitter: ".@JulianCastro suspends his 2020 presidential bid. "With only a month until the Iowa caucuses, and given the circumstances of this campaign season, I have determined that it simply isn’t our time.”" / Twitter

¡Hulian! is definitely not a Goonie then.

He was outspoken when Senator Kamala Harris of California made a surprise exit from the race in early December, saying that “Kamala was treated very poorly” and had been “held to an unfair standard” by the media.

Oh please! Name me one thing where Kamala was held to an unfair standard or treated unfairly. She simply didn't have the fight in her any more. When she quit, she wasn't doing THAT bad and she was qualified for the following debate.

“The media’s flawed formula for ‘electability’ has pushed aside women and candidates of color,” he said that day on Twitter. “Our party’s diversity is our strength.”

What formula would that be? Media is looking at same metrics as DNC for the debate qualification to gauge support - polls and donations. Race and gender are not part of the "flawed formula". He is just a sore loser.

For some, Ms. Harris’s departure bolstered the case Mr. Castro had been making about the primary system. On the day she announced she was dropping out, Mr. Castro had his best fund-raising day of the quarter.

He probably found a few quarters between the couch cushions.

“Ganaremos un día!” The translation is offered only in the subtitles: “One day we’ll win!”

 

[lpetrich]

The Border Between Red and Blue America - The New York Times - Now in the suburbs, with the inner suburbs pro-Democratic (blue) and the outer suburbs and exurbs pro-Republican (red).

Inner suburbs are urban-like, while outer suburbs are rural-like. "Inner ring" and "outer ring".

The article has a graph by density, grouped into deciles (division by a factor of 10).

Deciles 1 and 2: Trump 65%, Clinton 30%
Both Trump and Clinton go in straight lines until we reach
Decile 10: Trump 18%, Clinton 78%

Rural - 25% - Outer Suburb - 55% - Inner Suburb - 85% - Urban

One sees that trend in blue states, purple states, and red states.

 

[angelo]

By the look of things, Kennedy was the last real Democratic President the US ever had! None of the others from Johnson onward, although he was honest enough to admit that he couldn't win the Vietnam war and stepped aside, have been piss-weak culminating in the Appeaser in Chief Obuma himself. Who took a worldwide trip apologising and telling every tinpot regime on Earth what a terrible country America was and how he was determined to change all that. Music to every tinpot leader of every shithole on Earth's ear.
I believe most Americans will remember that when they're in a polling booth come election day 2020.

 

[Elixir]

By the look of things, Kennedy was the last real Democratic President the US ever had! None of the others from Johnson onward, although he was honest enough to admit that he couldn't win the Vietnam war and stepped aside, have been piss-weak culminating in the Appeaser in Chief Obuma himself. Who took a worldwide trip apologising and telling every tinpot regime on Earth what a terrible country America was and how he was determined to change all that. Music to every tinpot leader of every shithole on Earth's ear.
I believe most Americans will remember that when they're in a polling booth come election day 2020.

So you have to be a philandering badass type to be a "real democrat"? Who knew?
I guess El Cheato is a democrat in your eyes, just without the class of a Kennedy.

 

[Worldtraveller]

By the look of things, Kennedy was the last real Democratic President the US ever had! None of the others from Johnson onward, although he was honest enough to admit that he couldn't win the Vietnam war and stepped aside, have been piss-weak culminating in the Appeaser in Chief Obuma himself. Who took a worldwide trip apologising and telling every tinpot regime on Earth what a terrible country America was and how he was determined to change all that. Music to every tinpot leader of every shithole on Earth's ear.
I believe most Americans will remember that when they're in a polling booth come election day 2020.

So you have to be a philandering badass type to be a "real democrat"? Who knew?
I guess El Cheato is a democrat in your eyes, just without the class of a Kennedy.

..

 

[Elixir]

By the look of things, Kennedy was the last real Democratic President the US ever had! None of the others from Johnson onward, although he was honest enough to admit that he couldn't win the Vietnam war and stepped aside, have been piss-weak culminating in the Appeaser in Chief Obuma himself. Who took a worldwide trip apologising and telling every tinpot regime on Earth what a terrible country America was and how he was determined to change all that. Music to every tinpot leader of every shithole on Earth's ear.
I believe most Americans will remember that when they're in a polling booth come election day 2020.

So you have to be a philandering badass type to be a "real democrat"? Who knew?
I guess El Cheato is a democrat in your eyes, just without the class of a Kennedy.

..

Aw c'mon - angelo is no 'bot. Just another innocent victim of da media, steeped in FOX News and regurgitating what he's been told.
But angelo's content is nicely filtered for humorous content, which I can appreciate. It does separate him from his half-dead fellows in delusion.

 

[lpetrich]

Guthrie Graves-Fitzsimmons on Twitter: "This is how @AOC defined "A Culture of Loving Thy Neighbor" as she campaigned for @BernieSanders in Iowa:
Medicare for all
Ending police brutality
Ending the policy of caging children and their parents
A living wage
A Green New Deal https://t.co/QkzGiiHzPb" / Twitter
Links to a snippet of her in a Bernie Sanders rally describing these policy positions as, to her, loving thy neighbor.

Mayor Pete vs. AOC on Religious Left Values - The American Prospect - "Rolling Stone says the religious left should welcome Pete Buttigieg’s ‘public embrace of Christianity,’ but AOC’s ‘love thy neighbor’ politics reflects the Catholic Worker roots of democratic socialism."

Quotes AOC in a rally in Coralville, IA, before Bernie Sanders spoke:

Having this be my first time in Iowa, I’ve learned and experienced firsthand the incredible amount of warmth and kindness there is in this state. Just this morning actually, I went out and knocked doors—because that’s the work, OK—and I was out knocking doors in Des Moines and it was really amazing. First of all, having knocked a lot of doors in New York City, knocking doors in Iowa is a much nicer thing. In New York they’re like, ‘I don’t want to change my cable.’ They’re like, ‘leave me alone.’ But in Iowa, you know, you just knock on a door and people are just open to a conversation.

And it’s really amazing and it’s beautiful and it’s a testament to the culture, the neighborly culture you all have here. And I think it’s incredibly important because building on that culture is what this campaign is all about. It’s the kind of culture we’re trying to transform within our country. It’s a culture of loving thy neighbor. A politics of loving thy neighbor.

To me, that’s what policies like Medicare for All are all about. They’re about loving thy neighbor. To me, ending police brutality in America is loving thy neighbor. To me, ending a brutal policy of caging children and their parents is about loving thy neighbor. To me, a living wage is loving thy neighbor. And to me, a Green New Deal is loving thy neighbor, our children, and our planet.

Though AOC composed a piece for a Catholic magazine using a lot of Catholic language in calling for being merciful to prisoners and ex-cons, there is very little she's said and written before or since that is specifically Catholic. She does not seem as orthodox as (say) Nancy Pelosi. However, she is an admirer of Martin Luther King, Jr. and Howard Thurman, both liberal Protestants, and after quoting the Bible on how we ought to protect our planet, she stated that "You shouldn't need a Bible to tell you to protect our planet, but it does anyway.” then giving her source for the Bible quotes.

MLK Jr. doubted the virgin birth of Jesus Christ, and he once delivered: "Loving Your Enemies," Sermon Delivered at Dexter Avenue Baptist Church | The Martin Luther King, Jr., Research and Education Institute

 

[lpetrich]

Mayor Pete vs. AOC on Religious Left Values - The American Prospect

Morris all but admits his subject’s centrism in the introduction, writing that Buttigieg’s biblical “fluency” and “Christian values” are “welcome correctives to both Republican religious branding and Democratic religious reticence.” This is code for political moderation. Similarly, Buttigieg summarizes his faith as “liturgically conservative and theologically a little more open”—in this context, surely the religious equivalent of saying, “I’m socially liberal but economically conservative.”

This is the third-way triangulation of Bill Clinton, not Jesus of Nazareth. It’s the same stale old neoliberal bread we’ve choked on before, wrapped in shiny new packaging and carried by a self-proclaimed altar boy who once declared war on the homeless.

The convenient, politically expedient take on Christianity erases the most important part of the social gospel taught in both the Catholic and the Episcopal churches Buttigieg was raised in.

Pete Buttigieg on Christianity, the Primary and the Democratic Party - Rolling Stone

More specifically, he has argued that being married to his husband brings him closer to God; that one’s views of abortion should not be used by the religious right as a litmus test for one’s faith when it’s an issue that Jesus never even mentioned (though he did speak abundantly on charity and hospitality); and that the so-called “clobber” verses used to condemn homosexuality were cultural, along with so many other pronouncements the Bible makes that Christianity now disregards. “If me being gay was a choice, it was a choice that was made far, far above my pay grade,” Buttigieg said this spring at a brunch for the LBGTQ Victory Fund. “And that’s the thing I wish the Mike Pences of the world would understand. That if you got a problem with who I am, your problem is not with me — your quarrel, sir, is with my creator.”

I'd like to see how he figures that one out, about Biblical homophobia being "cultural". Why doesn't he go out and say that he takes what he likes and leaves what he doesn't like?

I expected him to compare his marriage to the relationship of David and Jonathan in the Bible, but he didn't.

 

[lpetrich]

Matthew Sitman on Twitter: "Wow. This is an incredible speech—or I should say, sermon—from Elizabeth Warren, former Methodist Sunday School teacher, on Matthew 25 and what we owe each other. https://t.co/3wIUVFQ1dY" / Twitter
Elizabeth Warren speaks at 2019 Rainbow Push Coalition Convention - YouTube
2019 Jun 29

Her explanation of it, starting at 11:00 in the video: "There is God in every one of us." She continues with saying that we are not called only to observe, but also to act. Also that we must act because it is right, not out of promise of reward.

About Matthew 25:31-46, especially Matthew 24:40 (NET, from biblegateway.com, footnote references edited out)

31 “When the Son of Man comes in his glory and all the angels with him, then he will sit on his glorious throne. 32 All the nations will be assembled before him, and he will separate people one from another like a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats. 33 He will put the sheep on his right and the goats on his left. 34 Then the king will say to those on his right, ‘Come, you who are blessed by my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world. 35 For I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, 36 I was naked and you gave me clothing, I was sick and you took care of me, I was in prison and you visited me.’ 37 Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? 38 When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or naked and clothe you? 39 When did we see you sick or in prison and visit you?’ 40 And the king will answer them, ‘I tell you the truth, just as you did it for one of the least of these brothers or sisters of mine, you did it for me.’

41 “Then he will say to those on his left, ‘Depart from me, you accursed, into the eternal fire that has been prepared for the devil and his angels! 42 For I was hungry and you gave me nothing to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me nothing to drink. 43 I was a stranger and you did not receive me as a guest, naked and you did not clothe me, sick and in prison and you did not visit me.’ 44 Then they too will answer, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and did not give you whatever you needed?’ 45 Then he will answer them, ‘I tell you the truth, just as you did not do it for one of the least of these, you did not do it for me.’ 46 And these will depart into eternal punishment, but the righteous into eternal life.”

Responses:

Tyler O'Neil on Twitter: "Elizabeth Warren twists Matthew 25 to suggest government should enforce Christian charity by law... Sorry, but Jesus didn't want you to get off the hook for serving the poor by forcing other people to do it. [url]https://t.co/iNUir6MPby @PJMedia_com https://t.co/vXRe7RGm7I" / Twitter[/url]
I love it when right-wingers seem like whiny teenagers.

Janet Mefferd on Twitter: "Also at LGBTQ Forum (start at 1:55:15), Elizabeth Warren answers “What does being moral mean to you?” by exegeting Romans 1 .. HAHA! JK! .. by eisegeting Matthew 25, of course! “There is God in every single human being and .. we are called on to act.”
Bible knowledge grade: F" / Twitter

Religion is constant part of Elizabeth Warren’s life - The Boston Globe

“Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me,” Warren said, quoting the Gospel. Then she shared her interpretation: “He’s saying to us, first, there’s God in every one of us, there’s Jesus in every one of us — however you see it in your religion, that inside there’s something holy in every single person.”

God in every one of us - that seems like some New-Age woo-woo.

Almost as big a heresy as Bernie Sanders's calling "God" recognition of our connectedness.

 

[lpetrich]

I'd like to see what Elizabeth Warren thinks about these parts of the Bible.

1 Corinthians 11:1-16. God is the head of Christ, Christ is the head of every man, and man is the head of woman. Men are not created for the sake of women, but women for the sake of men. Men don't come from women, but women from men. Men should pray or prophesy with their heads uncovered. But women should either cover their heads or shave their heads when they do that.

1 Corinthians 14:34-35. Women should shut up about religion and let their husbands instruct them.

1 Timothy 2:9-15. Women should dress modestly and plainly, they must learn quietly and submissively, and they must not be allowed to teach or have authority over any man. Women will be saved by having children.


Though in fairness, the Bible describes a female prophet, Deborah: Judges 4-5

 

[Rhea]

Bloomberg wants to win the presidency while getting lunch and a massage.

I really don't get his strategy unless he thinks Biden will mysteriously collapse and he will be there to swoop in and take over his lane.

I don’t think he wants the nomination. I get the sense that he wants to spend money to defeat Trump and this is the easiest way for him to get press. There is a discount for political ads if it is a candidate and not a PAC. i think he may be just going for that.

 

[ZiprHead]

I'd like to see what Elizabeth Warren thinks about these parts of the Bible.

1 Corinthians 11:1-16. God is the head of Christ, Christ is the head of every man, and man is the head of woman. Men are not created for the sake of women, but women for the sake of men. Men don't come from women, but women from men. Men should pray or prophesy with their heads uncovered. But women should either cover their heads or shave their heads when they do that.

1 Corinthians 14:34-35. Women should shut up about religion and let their husbands instruct them.

1 Timothy 2:9-15. Women should dress modestly and plainly, they must learn quietly and submissively, and they must not be allowed to teach or have authority over any man. Women will be saved by having children.


Though in fairness, the Bible describes a female prophet, Deborah: Judges 4-5

Paul was a nut case.

When using Biblical standards applied to today, I prefer to use John Fugelsang's method of sticking with what Jesus said or did. Jesus never said anything like the above.

 

[Elixir]

I'd like to see what Elizabeth Warren thinks about these parts of the Bible.

1 Corinthians 11:1-16. God is the head of Christ, Christ is the head of every man, and man is the head of woman. Men are not created for the sake of women, but women for the sake of men. Men don't come from women, but women from men. Men should pray or prophesy with their heads uncovered. But women should either cover their heads or shave their heads when they do that.

1 Corinthians 14:34-35. Women should shut up about religion and let their husbands instruct them.

1 Timothy 2:9-15. Women should dress modestly and plainly, they must learn quietly and submissively, and they must not be allowed to teach or have authority over any man. Women will be saved by having children.


Though in fairness, the Bible describes a female prophet, Deborah: Judges 4-5

Paul was a nut case.

When using Biblical standards applied to today, I prefer to use John Fugelsang's method of sticking with what Jesus said or did. Jesus never said anything like the above.

Jesus never said anything that we know of. Just a lot of other people telling us what Jesus said.
Religions are bullshit.

 

[ZiprHead]

I'd like to see what Elizabeth Warren thinks about these parts of the Bible.

1 Corinthians 11:1-16. God is the head of Christ, Christ is the head of every man, and man is the head of woman. Men are not created for the sake of women, but women for the sake of men. Men don't come from women, but women from men. Men should pray or prophesy with their heads uncovered. But women should either cover their heads or shave their heads when they do that.

1 Corinthians 14:34-35. Women should shut up about religion and let their husbands instruct them.

1 Timothy 2:9-15. Women should dress modestly and plainly, they must learn quietly and submissively, and they must not be allowed to teach or have authority over any man. Women will be saved by having children.


Though in fairness, the Bible describes a female prophet, Deborah: Judges 4-5

Paul was a nut case.

When using Biblical standards applied to today, I prefer to use John Fugelsang's method of sticking with what Jesus said or did. Jesus never said anything like the above.

Jesus never said anything that we know of. Just a lot of other people telling us what Jesus said.
Religions are bullshit.

Oh, I agree. But if it's going to be used, as above, use the words of the man himself.

 

[angelo]

Jesus never said anything that we know of. Just a lot of other people telling us what Jesus said.
Religions are bullshit.

Oh, I agree. But if it's going to be used, as above, use the words of the man himself.

Who, Geezus of a town called Nazareth himself? It's very doubtful such a one existed in real history.

 

[angelo]

But getting the thread back on topic.............The Dems manifesto seems to be built on the premise of envy in that anyone who has dared to study and work hard in trying to accumulate any form of wealth is by definition deemed bad and must be penalised.

The choice come November 2020 will be stark. Free-enterprise hope or a socialist no hope state!