"The Economy" is an abstraction. People vote based on how it has been presented to them, not based on how it is.
Stupid people do, certainly.
In November, Trump will tell his followers that the economy has recovered faster under his rule than any economy has ever recovered before. And even if they are eating their own shoes to survive, they will believe him. I've already met several people already who claim, illogically and counter to all seeming evidence, that a thousand dollar check with his name on it temporarily resolved their financial issues.
Well, here is the latest
YouGov Trump approval poll by party:
61% of Independents are in the "disapprove" camp, with only 18% "strongly approve." In general, you can look to the "strongly approve" numbers as the strongest indicator of a more or less reliable vote in your candidate's favor.
For Republicans, it's only 62% overall that strongly approve.
Now look at the breakdown of the approval measurement, which is asked only of those who approve (which, presumably, would be a combination of "strongly approve" and "somewhat approve" or a total of 91%):
Only 31% are in the blind devotion camp, so 31% of 91% would be 34% overall that are in the
he can do no wrong Kookoo Koolaid Kamp. 34% of 62% is 21% overall. So that's his core diehard
drink his cum happily and suck for thirds camp. 21% of Republicans overall are simply unreachable no matter what.
Which means 79% are--to varying degrees--reachable. So, it's a matter of how much? We can safely cut out at least half as not reachable enough and, because it's Trump, let's shave even closer, so we've looking at about 30% now let's say for a good conservative haircut to start us off.
From the poll data we see that a total of 9% are in the disapprove/not sure column. When it comes to Trump, a "not sure" nod is effectively a timid disapproval, so we can shave some of that and call it 8% as either a vote against or, more likely, a not going to bother voting percentage. Either way, samey samey.
So now we're looking at around 20-22% of Republicans that could either swing or, more likely, simply not vote. Of that lot, let's be overly cautious and cut it in half again in Trump's favor.
Down to 10% that are the most vulnerable/viable potential swing/non-voters. But it's Trump, so let's cut
that in half again in Trump's favor.
Now we're looking at 5% most vulnerable/most likely to at least not bother to vote.
But that gets combined with the 8% disapproval we already can count in that category, so we're at about 13% of Republicans--Republicans--that are low hanging fruit in regard to how close they are to simply not voting. We'll just toss away the idea of swing voting and focus only on apathy (non)votes.
But, it's Trump, so,
again, let's just cut that in half in Trump's favor and even round down and we're left with a fairly solid 6% of Republicans that are more than likely just not going to vote at all.
Now do the same thing for Independents, half of which are "right" leaning and all of which make up the largest voting bloc in America today, so they are the more important indicator.
Their disapproval/not sure column is as large as Trump's strongly approve, at 61%, with only 39% in the combined approval column (to Republicans 91%). But, Republicans only make up
27% of the total voting bloc to Independent's 39% (Dems are 31%), so, we're looking at a much larger percentage of right-leaning Independents in the likely
just won't vote low hanging fruit column, but, again, it's Trump so let's merely double the Republican number and add a point or two to compensate and we're up to around 15% vulnerability, let's say.
That's, again, the lowest of the low hanging fruit; the percentage of both Republicans and right-leaning Independents that most likely will simply not vote for Trump again. Even if we shave it
again to REALLY try to account for the impossible Trumpian bullshit misperception of teflon-Don and lower it to 10%, that's a death knell.
There is no way for Trump to win again if he can't surmount that
extremely conservative 10% non-voter vulnerability. And remember, that percentage isn't sitting on the fence waiting to jump back into Trumpland; that percentage represents those who voted for him in 2016 that have left him behind specifically because of the shitty job he's done since.
Even with all of the Republican dirty tricks--gerrymandering; poll closings; Russian influence (still in play)--all of the cheating Trump has to desperately rely on, the best case scenario for Trump already happened in 2016 and the only way he became President was by razor thin margins in blue states that are now firmly blue again.
The way that happened was due primarily to the Russian influence suppressing black voter turnout by 4%, which won't happen again, but even if it did, that STILL won't compensate for the right non-voters who, once again, are likely not going to vote for Trump again because of the last three years of gross and prolonged incompetence.
That conservative estimate are people who drank the koolaid once, woke up with the hangover and are not going to drink it again and are expressing that sentiment and have been expressing that sentiment consistently over the last three years. Those numbers are pretty much steady state starting after Trump's first year and certainly have been consistent over the past 18 months at least as this is not the first time I've broken this shit down.
So we're not talking about the 20% kum-guzzlers. They're irrelevant. We're talking about AT LEAST 10% previous Trump voters that are already most likely not going to vote again for Trump no matter what.
Which is why, of course, Trump has gone to such extreme measures--impeachable measures--to try to destroy Biden, not just tarnish him or insult him in the same manner as Hillary.
And before anyone regurgitates idiocy again, Hillary WON the election. She lost the WH, but she won the votes, with upwards of ten million in express preference, but no matter how you count the votes (actual or preference), she was undeniably the preferred candidate by the largest number of overall voters, NOT Trump.
He has never surmounted that fact and has only lost voters ever since--again, most notably in the largest voting bloc, the Independents, but ALSO among Republicans (from 68% strong approval in 2016 to 62% strong approval now)--not gained them.
He, of course, paints a picture of himself on top of Mt. Everest as he always has (and the kum guzzling 20% he always surrounds himself with to distort the picture lap it up), but the reality is that he's never made it beyond base camp and that was when he had all the advantages that he no longer has in his favor.
Iow, he didn't have the numbers in 2016 and has only lost more since, so absent truly extraordinary vote
tally manipulation methods this time (which I don't put past him in the slightest), he simply does not have the numbers and knows it.
