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Democrats 2020

New Survey Shows Young People Are Staying Liberal and Conservatives Are Dying Off

For obvious reasons, the broadly liberal demographic trends in American politics have received much less attention since the 2016 election. Yet the fact remains that America is politically sorted by generations in a way it never has before. The oldest voters are the most conservative, white, and Republican, and the youngest voters the most liberal, racially diverse, and Democratic. There is absolutely no sign the dynamic is abating during the Trump years. If anything, it is accelerating.

Not surprising, since this has always been the trend. However, these surveys are snapshots, not moving pictures. What they fail to give a clear picture of is how individual politics trends over a lifetime. Usually, people become more conservative as they age. Many of today's young liberals will become moderates and conservatives later on. Many baby boomers in the 60s and 70s would be horrified at the political profile of baby boomers today.

Exactly! I was a socialist when I was in my late teens, but now I'm a center left liberal, which according to some of the younger posters here, makes me a far right conservative. :) Being center left allows me to move further to the left or closer to the center without having a nervous breakdown.
 
Not surprising, since this has always been the trend. However, these surveys are snapshots, not moving pictures. What they fail to give a clear picture of is how individual politics trends over a lifetime. Usually, people become more conservative as they age. Many of today's young liberals will become moderates and conservatives later on. Many baby boomers in the 60s and 70s would be horrified at the political profile of baby boomers today.

Exactly! I was a socialist when I was in my late teens, but now I'm a center left liberal, which according to some of the younger posters here, makes me a far right conservative. :) Being center left allows me to move further to the left or closer to the center without having a nervous breakdown.

It doesn't make you a conservative, but it shows a lot about your principles and how far you're willing to go to defend them. Your last sentence is just pure gold as a demonstration of that, by the way. It reads like you started from a neutral position in a vacuum with no ideological leanings, and strategically selected the place on the political spectrum that would give you the kind of flexibility demanded by today's modern lifestyle. You're highlighting the social and psychological consequences of having a certain point of view rather than arguing why it's the most moral option, and that's extremely telling in my opinion. If anything, it makes you very different from modern conservatives, who if nothing else are committed to their beliefs and relish being ostracized for them.
 
Not surprising, since this has always been the trend. However, these surveys are snapshots, not moving pictures. What they fail to give a clear picture of is how individual politics trends over a lifetime. Usually, people become more conservative as they age. Many of today's young liberals will become moderates and conservatives later on. Many baby boomers in the 60s and 70s would be horrified at the political profile of baby boomers today.

Exactly! I was a socialist when I was in my late teens, but now I'm a center left liberal, which according to some of the younger posters here, makes me a far right conservative. :) Being center left allows me to move further to the left or closer to the center without having a nervous breakdown.

It doesn't make you a conservative, but it shows a lot about your principles and how far you're willing to go to defend them. Your last sentence is just pure gold as a demonstration of that, by the way. It reads like you started from a neutral position in a vacuum with no ideological leanings, and strategically selected the place on the political spectrum that would give you the kind of flexibility demanded by today's modern lifestyle. You're highlighting the social and psychological consequences of having a certain point of view rather than arguing why it's the most moral option, and that's extremely telling in my opinion. If anything, it makes you very different from modern conservatives, who if nothing else are committed to their beliefs and relish being ostracized for them.

I think that your analysis of her last sentence shows us a great deal more about how far you are willing to go to bash liberals that shun extremist positions. "Left of center" is not neutral. "Center" is neutral. Sohy has gone to great length to defend her point of view as "the most moral option" from her perspective. The fact that it disagrees with yours makes you try to characterize her as somehow not "committed" to her beliefs. In all the time I've known her, I've known her to be quite committed and passionate about her beliefs. If she weren't, she would bother spending so much time discussing them here.
 
It doesn't make you a conservative, but it shows a lot about your principles and how far you're willing to go to defend them. Your last sentence is just pure gold as a demonstration of that, by the way. It reads like you started from a neutral position in a vacuum with no ideological leanings, and strategically selected the place on the political spectrum that would give you the kind of flexibility demanded by today's modern lifestyle. You're highlighting the social and psychological consequences of having a certain point of view rather than arguing why it's the most moral option, and that's extremely telling in my opinion. If anything, it makes you very different from modern conservatives, who if nothing else are committed to their beliefs and relish being ostracized for them.

I think that your analysis of her last sentence shows us a great deal more about how far you are willing to go to bash liberals that shun extremist positions. "Left of center" is not neutral. "Center" is neutral. Sohy has gone to great length to defend her point of view as "the most moral option" from her perspective. The fact that it disagrees with yours makes you try to characterize her as somehow not "committed" to her beliefs. In all the time I've known her, I've known her to be quite committed and passionate about her beliefs. If she weren't, she would bother spending so much time discussing them here.

The way it was phrased didn't indicate that, though. It seemed like she was saying, "I used to be further to the left, but then I decided to become more moderate because it was better for my mental health." Is that a good reason to have the opinions you may have? I don't know, but it was honestly astonishing to me to see that as the thing she chose to highlight about her shift over the years. And for the love of god, center is not neutral. There is no such thing as ideological neutrality.
 
We seem to be ignoring the women running for president | TheHill
The women running for president are qualified, talented, charismatic, hardworking — and nearly invisible. If it t feels like more of the male candidates and expected candidates are getting all the coverage, it’s because they are. Tracking of media mentions of candidates by Five Thirty Eight showed that mentions of male candidates have been consistently higher than women, even as Kamala Harris’s fundraising and polling numbers are nearly on par with her male rivals.

But perhaps even more importantly, much of the media women candidates are getting is unflattering. A recent study by Storybench, a media watchdog out of Northeastern University, found that women candidates have indeed received disproportionately negative coverage.

The words used to describe their campaigns routinely emphasize scandal and discord. It’s just the kind of media bias that contributed to the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. One would hope we’d have learned something since then.
Seems to me that Elizabeth Warren makes Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg seem like male bimbos.
 
It doesn't make you a conservative, but it shows a lot about your principles and how far you're willing to go to defend them. Your last sentence is just pure gold as a demonstration of that, by the way. It reads like you started from a neutral position in a vacuum with no ideological leanings, and strategically selected the place on the political spectrum that would give you the kind of flexibility demanded by today's modern lifestyle. You're highlighting the social and psychological consequences of having a certain point of view rather than arguing why it's the most moral option, and that's extremely telling in my opinion. If anything, it makes you very different from modern conservatives, who if nothing else are committed to their beliefs and relish being ostracized for them.

I think that your analysis of her last sentence shows us a great deal more about how far you are willing to go to bash liberals that shun extremist positions. "Left of center" is not neutral. "Center" is neutral. Sohy has gone to great length to defend her point of view as "the most moral option" from her perspective. The fact that it disagrees with yours makes you try to characterize her as somehow not "committed" to her beliefs. In all the time I've known her, I've known her to be quite committed and passionate about her beliefs. If she weren't, she would bother spending so much time discussing them here.

The way it was phrased didn't indicate that, though. It seemed like she was saying, "I used to be further to the left, but then I decided to become more moderate because it was better for my mental health." Is that a good reason to have the opinions you may have? I don't know, but it was honestly astonishing to me to see that as the thing she chose to highlight about her shift over the years. And for the love of god, center is not neutral. There is no such thing as ideological neutrality.


Lighten up PH. Some of my comment was meant to be humorous. Do you really think that I seriously meant that I hold a position for my mental health! Seriously? I just strongly believe that any type of absolutism is wrong and dangerous. The only way that progress can be made is to take into account the positions of others and then find some compromise where everyone gets at least part of what they want. Nothing in life is perfect.

To me, the center is just a place where left meets right and the two sides come together to work things out. Nobody ever gets everything that they want. Not me and not you. Unfortunately, we seem to be living in an era where tribalism has become extreme and people aren't even listening to each other. I am not the enemy, and I'm not even a moderate. I'm center left, by any historical definition of that concept.
 
We seem to be ignoring the women running for president | TheHill
The women running for president are qualified, talented, charismatic, hardworking — and nearly invisible. If it t feels like more of the male candidates and expected candidates are getting all the coverage, it’s because they are. Tracking of media mentions of candidates by Five Thirty Eight showed that mentions of male candidates have been consistently higher than women, even as Kamala Harris’s fundraising and polling numbers are nearly on par with her male rivals.

But perhaps even more importantly, much of the media women candidates are getting is unflattering. A recent study by Storybench, a media watchdog out of Northeastern University, found that women candidates have indeed received disproportionately negative coverage.

The words used to describe their campaigns routinely emphasize scandal and discord. It’s just the kind of media bias that contributed to the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. One would hope we’d have learned something since then.
Seems to me that Elizabeth Warren makes Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg seem like male bimbos.

Buddy: do you honestly think that Warren has any chance against Trump? Trump currently has a 48% approval rating. He only needs about 42% of the voting population in order to win. I'd agree with you that women are getting overlooked right now. But Warren absolutely has zero charisma. She's so whinny. I agree that the women running are being overlooked. But I think that Harris, Kloboucher, and Gillibrand are being overlooked and will come back. Stacey Abrams is very impressive also.

I'm extremely worried that we're going to have another Trump administration. All the odds are in the republicans favor. Our only chance is with a dynamic, bold, charismatic leader who can appeal to a broad (very broad) spectrum.
 
The way it was phrased didn't indicate that, though. It seemed like she was saying, "I used to be further to the left, but then I decided to become more moderate because it was better for my mental health." Is that a good reason to have the opinions you may have? I don't know, but it was honestly astonishing to me to see that as the thing she chose to highlight about her shift over the years. And for the love of god, center is not neutral. There is no such thing as ideological neutrality.


Lighten up PH. Some of my comment was meant to be humorous. Do you really think that I seriously meant that I hold a position for my mental health! Seriously? I just strongly believe that any type of absolutism is wrong and dangerous. The only way that progress can be made is to take into account the positions of others and then find some compromise where everyone gets at least part of what they want. Nothing in life is perfect.

To me, the center is just a place where left meets right and the two sides come together to work things out. Nobody ever gets everything that they want. Not me and not you. Unfortunately, we seem to be living in an era where tribalism has become extreme and people aren't even listening to each other. I am not the enemy, and I'm not even a moderate. I'm center left, by any historical definition of that concept.

All of the things you're saying are wrong, though, which is why I don't take it lightly. The dismissal of any position that unequivocally rejects the opposition as "absolutism is wrong and dangerous", holding compromise up as a virtue for its own sake, the reduction of all problems to a vague tribalism that could be solved if everyone just gets along. I disagree with it all from bottom to top and think it has ruined the world.

When people advocate racism and oppression, I don't want to listen to them anymore. I don't want to meet them halfway, and I don't want to elect anyone who does. Civility and compromise did not gain us independence, end slavery, give women the right to vote, shorten the work week to 40 hours, nor anything else of lasting consequence in our history. If you want to understand where I'm coming from, you need to understand that people in my ideological wheelhouse want to transform society, not maintain its stability or return it to a prior state. That's the most important thing that has to happen, and harping on about meeting in the middle and making incremental changes is nothing but an obstacle to it, even though when the dust clears everybody who makes those noises pats themselves on the back thinking it was all their doing. I have nothing against you or liberals personally, but unfortunately you're at least as much of an enemy politically as conservatives are.
 
The way it was phrased didn't indicate that, though. It seemed like she was saying, "I used to be further to the left, but then I decided to become more moderate because it was better for my mental health." Is that a good reason to have the opinions you may have? I don't know, but it was honestly astonishing to me to see that as the thing she chose to highlight about her shift over the years. And for the love of god, center is not neutral. There is no such thing as ideological neutrality.


Lighten up PH. Some of my comment was meant to be humorous. Do you really think that I seriously meant that I hold a position for my mental health! Seriously? I just strongly believe that any type of absolutism is wrong and dangerous. The only way that progress can be made is to take into account the positions of others and then find some compromise where everyone gets at least part of what they want. Nothing in life is perfect.

To me, the center is just a place where left meets right and the two sides come together to work things out. Nobody ever gets everything that they want. Not me and not you. Unfortunately, we seem to be living in an era where tribalism has become extreme and people aren't even listening to each other. I am not the enemy, and I'm not even a moderate. I'm center left, by any historical definition of that concept.

All of the things you're saying are wrong, though, which is why I don't take it lightly. The dismissal of any position that unequivocally rejects the opposition as "absolutism is wrong and dangerous", holding compromise up as a virtue for its own sake, the reduction of all problems to a vague tribalism that could be solved if everyone just gets along. I disagree with it all from bottom to top and think it has ruined the world.

When people advocate racism and oppression, I don't want to listen to them anymore. I don't want to meet them halfway, and I don't want to elect anyone who does. Civility and compromise did not gain us independence, end slavery, give women the right to vote, shorten the work week to 40 hours, nor anything else of lasting consequence in our history. If you want to understand where I'm coming from, you need to understand that people in my ideological wheelhouse want to transform society, not maintain its stability or return it to a prior state. That's the most important thing that has to happen, and harping on about meeting in the middle and making incremental changes is nothing but an obstacle to it, even though when the dust clears everybody who makes those noises pats themselves on the back thinking it was all their doing. I have nothing against you or liberals personally, but unfortunately you're at least as much of an enemy politically as conservatives are.

Nobody is talking about compromising with racists, killers, or any other type of harmful extremists. :rolleyes: And, it's so nice of you to judge me by calling me an enemy. I strongly disagree with your positions, but I don't refer to you as an enemy. I just think you are not being realistic, assuming you still support communism or pure socialism.

Have you ever seriously studied the impact of communism or pure socialism with an open mind? It might look good on paper, but it's never worked out very well. It's always lead to more poverty, less innovation, and corruption by the leaders. I was a socialist during my late teens because I didn't know any better. I had this utopian dream where we would all have a nice middle class life style, decent paying jobs etc. That's not what happens in communist or socialist countries. What happens is such systems stifle creativity and new ideas. Free speech is attacked. The leaders become corrupt, while the people suffer in poverty. I'm not referring to countries which mix elements of capitalism and socialism, which are often places where people are happier and don't have to worry about their basic needs. But, there are still some extremely wealthy people in those countries. Why should I care, as long as other people have their basic needs?

I support well regulated capitalism with an excellent social safety net, and more progressive taxes. The extreme wealth inequality that we currently have in the world, not just in the US, is immoral and harmful imo. But, if Bernie makes a million from his book, I don't care, anymore than I would care if my neighbor has twice the amount of wealth that I have. I abhor unnecessary wars and excessive wasteful military spending. I want the minimum wage to be raised and SS and Medicare/Medicaid to remain solvent. Most importantly, I want a cleaner environment and an emphasis on transitioning to cleaner sources of energy. I want racial and sexual equality. I want UHC, but there are many ways of doing that. But, I also realize that everything that I want is unlikely to happen, at least not in my lifetime. I will at least hope that we make some progress. Right now, our biggest problem is the man in the WH.

I spent my entire working life advocating for people who were often poor and in need of help, but as a professional nurse it was always extremely important to me, not to ever judge my patients, not even when they were conservatives or religious fanatics. I was there to care for them when they were powerless and dependent. That doesn't make me any better than you, but may I ask you, other than insulting people who disagree with your politics, what exactly have you done to make the lives of anyone better? None of us can change the world in significant ways, but most of us can do little things for people that help make their day a little better. Insulting people that you disagree with on the internet certainly doesn't qualify as an accomplishment. Why attack people who disagree with you? It certainly doesn't change minds. Being unable to understand that we all must compromise every single day of our lives might help you understand why your views seem extremist to most of us.
 
We seem to be ignoring the women running for president | TheHill
The women running for president are qualified, talented, charismatic, hardworking — and nearly invisible. If it t feels like more of the male candidates and expected candidates are getting all the coverage, it’s because they are. Tracking of media mentions of candidates by Five Thirty Eight showed that mentions of male candidates have been consistently higher than women, even as Kamala Harris’s fundraising and polling numbers are nearly on par with her male rivals.

But perhaps even more importantly, much of the media women candidates are getting is unflattering. A recent study by Storybench, a media watchdog out of Northeastern University, found that women candidates have indeed received disproportionately negative coverage.

The words used to describe their campaigns routinely emphasize scandal and discord. It’s just the kind of media bias that contributed to the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. One would hope we’d have learned something since then.
Seems to me that Elizabeth Warren makes Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg seem like male bimbos.
I have already named Harris the presumptive nominee. Warren isn't going anywhere.
 
We seem to be ignoring the women running for president | TheHill
The women running for president are qualified, talented, charismatic, hardworking — and nearly invisible. If it t feels like more of the male candidates and expected candidates are getting all the coverage, it’s because they are. Tracking of media mentions of candidates by Five Thirty Eight showed that mentions of male candidates have been consistently higher than women, even as Kamala Harris’s fundraising and polling numbers are nearly on par with her male rivals.

But perhaps even more importantly, much of the media women candidates are getting is unflattering. A recent study by Storybench, a media watchdog out of Northeastern University, found that women candidates have indeed received disproportionately negative coverage.

The words used to describe their campaigns routinely emphasize scandal and discord. It’s just the kind of media bias that contributed to the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. One would hope we’d have learned something since then.
Seems to me that Elizabeth Warren makes Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg seem like male bimbos.
I have already named Harris the presumptive nominee. Warren isn't going anywhere.

With folks like you leading the Democratic Party, we have nothing to worry about. Have you chosen Harris's running mate yet?
 
We seem to be ignoring the women running for president | TheHill
The women running for president are qualified, talented, charismatic, hardworking — and nearly invisible. If it t feels like more of the male candidates and expected candidates are getting all the coverage, it’s because they are. Tracking of media mentions of candidates by Five Thirty Eight showed that mentions of male candidates have been consistently higher than women, even as Kamala Harris’s fundraising and polling numbers are nearly on par with her male rivals.

But perhaps even more importantly, much of the media women candidates are getting is unflattering. A recent study by Storybench, a media watchdog out of Northeastern University, found that women candidates have indeed received disproportionately negative coverage.

The words used to describe their campaigns routinely emphasize scandal and discord. It’s just the kind of media bias that contributed to the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. One would hope we’d have learned something since then.
Seems to me that Elizabeth Warren makes Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg seem like male bimbos.
I have already named Harris the presumptive nominee. Warren isn't going anywhere.

Probably a safe bet. Warren just came out for impeachment. So she's throwing in the towel. Trump's at 48% approval, dems start going after him for impeachment - he'll go over 55% shortly! Warren is getting desperate.
 
48? Maybe in Rasmussen, but nowhere else.
 
I have already named Harris the presumptive nominee. Warren isn't going anywhere.

Probably a safe bet. Warren just came out for impeachment. So she's throwing in the towel. Trump's at 48% approval, dems start going after him for impeachment - he'll go over 55% shortly! Warren is getting desperate.


538
Trump approval rating - 41.6%
Disapproval rating - 53.2%

RCP
Trump approval rating - 41.6%
Disapproval rating - 53.1%

The Real Clear Politics poll listings show no Trump approval rating even getting close to 48% Not even Faux or Ratmuffin.
 
How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight Also compares previous presidents.

Trump: 41.6% approve, 53.2% disapprove -11.6% (all polls), 42.8% - 52.6% = -9.8% (likely or registered voters), 40.2% - 54.1% = -13.9% (adults)

This is typical of his approval rating over the last year, and before that, it went even lower.

President, whether re-elected, popular-vote margin, net approval around election
  • Obama - Re-elected +4% +3.9%
  • Bush II - Re-elected +2% +2.4%
  • Clinton - Re-elected +20% +8.5%
  • Bush I - Failed RE -23% -5.6%
  • Reagan - Re-elected +30% +18.2%
  • Carter - Failed RE -17% -9.1%
  • Ford - Failed RE +2% -1.9%
  • Nixon - Re-elected +30% +23.2%
  • Johnson - Declined RE -9%
  • Kennedy - Died in first term
  • Eisenhower - Re-elected +50% +15.4%
  • Truman - Re-elected -5.9% +5.5%

Given that track record, Trump getting re-elected is *very* unlikely.
 
48? Maybe in Rasmussen, but nowhere else.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/398796-poll-trump-approval-now-at-48-percent

Yea, over confidence is a real problem for democrats in my opinion. You may or may not like the Hill as a source. But here's the problem: all the factors favor a Trump reelection. His base is strong and united. The economy continues to be very strong. Trump only needs about 43 or 44% of the popular vote to win. The dems will need a great candidate to pull of the upset to beat Trump. We need someone who can appeal to a broad array of voters. Warren appeals to people who are pissed off at bankers, amazon, and facebook. Her base is too small...
 
I don't think the females are being ignored. They're just not the new "flavor of the week". Someone announces their candidacy, they become the hot news story and everyone jumps on them to get interviews and examine their background. This, of course, displaces those other candidates, some of which happen to be females.

Simple as that, imho.
 
48? Maybe in Rasmussen, but nowhere else.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/398796-poll-trump-approval-now-at-48-percent

Yea, over confidence is a real problem for democrats in my opinion. You may or may not like the Hill as a source. But here's the problem: all the factors favor a Trump reelection. His base is strong and united. The economy continues to be very strong. Trump only needs about 43 or 44% of the popular vote to win. The dems will need a great candidate to pull of the upset to beat Trump. We need someone who can appeal to a broad array of voters. Warren appeals to people who are pissed off at bankers, amazon, and facebook. Her base is too small...

Harry, the source for your poll is an organization called "HarrisX". The Hill is just a select group of commentators, not an endorser of specific polls that are cited by one of its commentators. Poll aggregators such as 538 and RCP provide a far more accurate picture of public sentiment, because they track categories consistently over a long period of time. Individual polls are just snapshots that vary from day to day and may tend to reflect the biases of those who design them. Rasmussen is a good example of a polling organization that consistently weighs slightly in favor of Republicans, so poll aggregators usually adjust for such biases.

I saw an interview with Warren on Rachel Maddow. She is well aware of the political liabilities involved in impeachment proceedings, but she believes that the principles inherent in the Constitution require Congress to open an impeachment hearing when there are serious charges leveled against a president. I don't think that the danger is quite as obvious or stark as you appear to think that it is. A slim but consistent majority of the public has disliked Trump and his administration since a few days after his taking office. They aren't going to change their point of view and vote for Trump just because they don't like Democrats doing what the Constitution prescribes in cases like this. In the end, it is the electoral college, not necessarily a majority of voters, that will decide the presidency. At this point, it is just too early to determine how impeachment hearings will affect the outcome of an election. Nor should that determine whether Congress has an obligation to hold this president accountable for his actions. That is the nature of their job.
 
How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight Also compares previous presidents.

Trump: 41.6% approve, 53.2% disapprove -11.6% (all polls), 42.8% - 52.6% = -9.8% (likely or registered voters), 40.2% - 54.1% = -13.9% (adults)

This is typical of his approval rating over the last year, and before that, it went even lower.

President, whether re-elected, popular-vote margin, net approval around election
  • Obama - Re-elected +4% +3.9%
  • Bush II - Re-elected +2% +2.4%
  • Clinton - Re-elected +20% +8.5%
  • Bush I - Failed RE -23% -5.6%
  • Reagan - Re-elected +30% +18.2%
  • Carter - Failed RE -17% -9.1%
  • Ford - Failed RE +2% -1.9%
  • Nixon - Re-elected +30% +23.2%
  • Johnson - Declined RE -9%
  • Kennedy - Died in first term
  • Eisenhower - Re-elected +50% +15.4%
  • Truman - Re-elected -5.9% +5.5%

Given that track record, Trump getting re-elected is *very* unlikely.

What's was their net approval by the first quarter of their third year in office?
 
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