Democrats 2020

[Derec]

You really think that there are "rapid base" liberals in Texas?

Sure there is. Have you never been to Austin?
But my comment about the rabid base was about pushing β for president in 2020, not so much about his Senate run.

If he can come close against an established republican in one of the most conservative states in the country, he could win a general election.

- Cruz was not exactly popular.
- Texas is not one of the most conservative states. Only 52% of Texans voted for Trump in 2016, which places Texas around the midfield among states carried by Trump. In 2012 57% voted for Romney, but again Texas was in the midfield, nowhere close to the top. Texas is the 2nd biggest state and that makes its influence large in terms of electoral college, but it isn't close to being among the most conservative states.

Dems don't need to carry Texas. We just need to win a couple moderate states to win an election. More importantly, he's not a boring policy wonk. People want someone who is inspirational.

But he seems all flash, no substance. Let him accomplish something first. In 2024 or 2028 he could be just as inspirational.
Note, I find him way too hard left, esp. on illegal immigration - a more moderate Dem could have beat Cruz. But that is beside the point for the experience argument I am making.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Dude, low bar there.

Not really. Beta cucks all get their talking points from the same places and dutifully follow the leaders. The more stridently they object to any given point, the higher the threat level of that point.

They hated Hillary Clinton. They hated Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. They railed against John Kerry and his military record and voted for a guy that went AWOL in the National Guard.

These people hate. It is what they do.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Dude, low bar there.

Not really. Beta cucks all get their talking points from the same places and dutifully follow the leaders. The more stridently they object to any given point, the higher the threat level of that point.

They hated Hillary Clinton. They hated Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. They railed against John Kerry and his military record and voted for a guy that went AWOL in the National Guard.

Precisely. So by looking at who they hate and with what disproportionate degree, you can use them as perfect reverse barometers. What elicits the biggest response is the "tell" as to who they fear the most.

Hillary Clinton is a perfect example of the rule. She was so feared--and her 2016 popular vote victory showed precisely the reason--that they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past three decades on all manner of ridiculous, blatantly false conspiracies, outright lies and shit that doesn't even rise to the level of misdemeanor taken to the level of being equivalent to premeditated murder--eliciting chants of "lock her up" no less--all because they knew that one day she would run for the Oval.

You don't do any of that unless you fear such a person the most.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

They hated Hillary Clinton. They hated Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. They railed against John Kerry and his military record and voted for a guy that went AWOL in the National Guard.

Precisely. So by looking at who they hate and with what disproportionate degree, you can use them as perfect reverse barometers.

Clinton was hardly a liberal. Saying that they hate Clinton therefore she'd be perfect, they hate O'Rourke therefore he'd be perfect isn't establishing a barometer, it is a meaningless litmus test. A barometer changes with pressure. The right-wing just hates anything without an R and or is subservient to their agenda.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

They hated Hillary Clinton. They hated Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. They railed against John Kerry and his military record and voted for a guy that went AWOL in the National Guard.

Precisely. So by looking at who they hate and with what disproportionate degree, you can use them as perfect reverse barometers.

Clinton was hardly a liberal.

I disagree, but irrelevant. She was a threat, is the point.

it is a meaningless litmus test. A barometer changes with pressure.

Still not getting it. The more pressure that is applied indicates the level of fear from the threat.

The right-wing just hates anything without an R and or is subservient to their agenda.

Not true. They supported Sanders. Why? Because they feared Clinton more than they feared Sanders.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Yeh, the Dems do seem to be inept at that sort of thing. But really - how hard could it be? Those extremists on the right are stupid enough to swallow virtually any bait that is dangled in front of them. Get someone like David Duke or worse into the mix as an independent, and start pimping him to the teabaggers & neocons - they'd never see it coming.

It's--ironically--what Trump supposedly did in 2000 to push Buchanan off the Reform Party ticket (allegedly orchestrated by the Bush team, according to Robert Novak).

The Republicans have for a long time been better at the 3rd party game, ever since Perot they actually pay attention ... if only to destroy those that are threats. They work hard to undermine any third parties that might be considered on their side, and work hard to support any third parties that can undermine Democrats. It is no secret that many of Nader's 2000 donations came from Republicans. They didn't donate because they agree with or believe in the positions Nader put forward.

If you were to ask a Democrat to donate to the Constitution Party, for example, they'd get the vapors, and protest "but they're evil, I can't give to them." I'm suspicious that Buchanan went Reform in 2000 specifically to help bring the party down, and when Keyes took the CP ballot line in California under the affiliate American Independent Party in 2008.

 

[Elixir]

The Republicans have for a long time been better at the 3rd party game...

Yeah, they're a lot more comfortable than the Democrats in general, when operating dishonestly, outside legal limits etc.. I expect there will be another crossroads some day that will force the choice upon Democrats to either fight fire with fire, or go down proudly and stupidly, proclaiming themselves travelers on the "high road". But I don't think it will be real soon: the Rethuglicans have pushed it a bit too far this time, backing a treasonous felon who committed felonies to get elected, surrounded himself with felons, served the leader of a hostile foreign power, and demanded fealty from the whole spineless lot of 'pugs. All the perfume and lipstick in the world isn't going to make this pig look good or smell good in two years.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

The Republicans have for a long time been better at the 3rd party game...

Yeah, they're a lot more comfortable than the Democrats in general, when operating dishonestly, outside legal limits etc..

Sorry, but sending one donation check to Bush Jr and sending another to Nader isn't illegal, even if the end net effect is to donate twice to Bush.

Sorry, but sending Buchanan to the Reform Party, Keyes to the Constitution Party, and Barr to the Libertarian Party in order to neuter those parties as threats isn't illegal.

 

[Elixir]

The Republicans have for a long time been better at the 3rd party game...

Yeah, they're a lot more comfortable than the Democrats in general, when operating dishonestly, outside legal limits etc..

Sorry, but sending one donation check to Bush Jr and sending another to Nader isn't illegal, even if the end net effect is to donate twice to Bush.

Sorry, but sending Buchanan to the Reform Party, Keyes to the Constitution Party, and Barr to the Libertarian Party in order to neuter those parties as threats isn't illegal.

Yeah? So what?
It's not like there's any lack of evidence or testimony to the fact that Trump is a scumbag criminal...

 

[lpetrich]

The comically large 2020 Democratic field, explained - Vox

Vox’s internal tracking document of who is “considering” running for president currently includes 34 names on the Democratic side. That’s a huge field.

The list doesn’t track who has said they’re running in 2020. Hardly any Democrat has said so at all. Instead, our tracker includes candidates who are doing everything but saying it.

There’s Kamala Harris, a California senator who keeps finding reasons to visit Iowa. There’s Sherrod Brown, the senator from Ohio whose wife (herself an accomplished journalist) tweeted that they’re thinking about it. There’s Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who keeps rolling out splashy legislation while developing a sudden interest in foreign policy. And, of course, there’s Joe Biden, who’s made no secret of his continued interest in the White House, and Bernie Sanders, whose team has been holding meetings all year. There’s even former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, the one actually declared candidate in the race.

The field includes a lot of senators, a few governors, a couple of business leaders — even mayors and a Senate candidate who lost.

I checked everybody that they mentioned against the OP's list, and I've found an additional one:

• Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro

 

[lpetrich]

With The First Pick In The 2020 Draft, Our Staffers Select… | FiveThirtyEight -- I could recognize Stacey Abrams, Oprah Winfrey, and Michelle Obama among their possibilities.

Who’s Behaving Like A 2020 Presidential Candidate | FiveThirtyEight
On the Democratic side,

• Basically running right now: Lawyer Michael Avenatti; South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Montana Gov. Steve Bullock; former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Former Attorney General Eric Holder; former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu; Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon; former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley; Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts; Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; Rep. Eric Swalwell of California; businessman and pro-impeachment activist Tom Steyer; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
• Taking steps but not being as aggressive: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii
• Doing fairly little: Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; businessman Howard Schultz
• On the sidelines: Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, former first lady Michelle Obama, media mogul Oprah Winfrey

The article mentioned already-declared candidate John Delaney and also anti-Trump Republicans Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska.

The article also ranked the candidate by count of features: visiting IA, NH, and SC, having a book, poll, and magazine profile, and campaigning.

• 7: Sanders
• 6: Biden
• 5: Booker, Bullock, Castro, Garcetti, Holder, Ryan, Steyer
• 4: Avenatti, Buttigieg, Flake, Gillibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Kasich, Landrieu, Merkley, Moulton, O’Malley, Swalwell, Warren
• 3: Bloomberg, Inslee, Klobuchar, McAuliffe, Schatz
• 2: Hassan, Patrick, Sasse
• 1: Schultz

 

[Elixir]

With The First Pick In The 2020 Draft, Our Staffers Select… | FiveThirtyEight -- I could recognize Stacey Abrams, Oprah Winfrey, and Michelle Obama among their possibilities.

Who’s Behaving Like A 2020 Presidential Candidate | FiveThirtyEight
On the Democratic side,

• Basically running right now: Lawyer Michael Avenatti; South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Montana Gov. Steve Bullock; former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Former Attorney General Eric Holder; former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu; Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon; former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley; Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts; Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; Rep. Eric Swalwell of California; businessman and pro-impeachment activist Tom Steyer; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
• Taking steps but not being as aggressive: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii
• Doing fairly little: Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; businessman Howard Schultz
• On the sidelines: Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, former first lady Michelle Obama, media mogul Oprah Winfrey

The article mentioned already-declared candidate John Delaney and also anti-Trump Republicans Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska.

The article also ranked the candidate by count of features: visiting IA, NH, and SC, having a book, poll, and magazine profile, and campaigning.

• 7: Sanders
• 6: Biden
• 5: Booker, Bullock, Castro, Garcetti, Holder, Ryan, Steyer
• 4: Avenatti, Buttigieg, Flake, Gillibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Kasich, Landrieu, Merkley, Moulton, O’Malley, Swalwell, Warren
• 3: Bloomberg, Inslee, Klobuchar, McAuliffe, Schatz
• 2: Hassan, Patrick, Sasse
• 1: Schultz

Where's O'Rourke, and why is Avenatti still on there?

 

[Derec]

The comically large 2020 Democratic field, explained - Vox

Vox’s internal tracking document of who is “considering” running for president currently includes 34 names on the Democratic side. That’s a huge field.

Republicans had problems doing debates with 17, which is exactly half. Everybody remember the kids' table debates?

 

[Derec]

Where's O'Rourke,

Maybe he didn't visit Iowa yet. But apparently he is riding high on PredictIt. I really don't get it. I am thinking of buying some shares of not-β. Anybody know if "PredictIt" is reputable. I want to collect my winnings ...

and why is Avenatti still on there?

Is Stormy going to be his Veep?

 

[lpetrich]

I was quoting from the articles that I could find, and those articles were written before Michael Avenatti dropped out.

We'll see who else drops out when this holiday season ends. Kamala Harris will reportedly be deciding in the next few weeks, and here is where she was two months ago: Harris makes a big first impression in Iowa - POLITICO

 

[Elixir]

Anybody know if "PredictIt" is reputable. I want to collect my winnings ...

I love Predictit... started with a $15 investment back in the 2016 primaries. Bet on Bernie to win the MI primary, have been in and out of "Will Trump be president on 12/31/19?", taking the "no" position. If you pay attention to the news it's pretty predictable - my portfolio is now worth $95, with possible payouts of about $240. I almost wish I had gone in with a "real" investment - I think it's limited to $10k.
They'll credit your card when you cash out...
Highly recommend - and the comments are priceless.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

With The First Pick In The 2020 Draft, Our Staffers Select… | FiveThirtyEight -- I could recognize Stacey Abrams, Oprah Winfrey, and Michelle Obama among their possibilities.

Who’s Behaving Like A 2020 Presidential Candidate | FiveThirtyEight
On the Democratic side,

• Basically running right now: Lawyer Michael Avenatti; South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Montana Gov. Steve Bullock; former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Former Attorney General Eric Holder; former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu; Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon; former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley; Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts; Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; Rep. Eric Swalwell of California; businessman and pro-impeachment activist Tom Steyer; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
• Taking steps but not being as aggressive: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii
• Doing fairly little: Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; businessman Howard Schultz
• On the sidelines: Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, former first lady Michelle Obama, media mogul Oprah Winfrey

The article mentioned already-declared candidate John Delaney and also anti-Trump Republicans Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska.

The article also ranked the candidate by count of features: visiting IA, NH, and SC, having a book, poll, and magazine profile, and campaigning.

• 7: Sanders
• 6: Biden
• 5: Booker, Bullock, Castro, Garcetti, Holder, Ryan, Steyer
• 4: Avenatti, Buttigieg, Flake, Gillibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Kasich, Landrieu, Merkley, Moulton, O’Malley, Swalwell, Warren
• 3: Bloomberg, Inslee, Klobuchar, McAuliffe, Schatz
• 2: Hassan, Patrick, Sasse
• 1: Schultz

Where's O'Rourke, and why is Avenatti still on there?

O'Rourke has not yet committed. But think Vice President for one of the candidates.

 

[lpetrich]

Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Other Democrats Shift into High Gear for 2020 - The New York Times

Senator Kamala Harris of California is eyeing Baltimore or Atlanta as a possible base of operations for her likely 2020 presidential bid and is close to bringing on a top aide to run her campaign.

Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts senator, has completed a detailed review of her writings and political record to identify potential vulnerabilities, and her aides have been scouting headquarters near Boston.

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey has been interviewing possible campaign managers, as well as strategists who could run his Iowa caucus effort.

And Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has been reaching out to more women than men for campaign roles, though she is expected to pick a man — her current top aide — to manage a campaign likely to be based near her upstate New York home.

"This kind of early frenetic activity — almost two years before the election — has happened before in primaries without a clear front-runner." The article then compared the Democrats now to the Republicans back in 2016. The Democratic race back then was pretty much a coronation of Hillary Clinton.

Like Ms. Warren, Ms. Harris has completed a substantial research project into her own political vulnerabilities, people in touch with their advisers said. Ms. Harris’s team has scrutinized her paper trail in public office, including her service as California’s state attorney general and San Francisco’s district attorney, while Ms. Warren has conducted an exhaustive review including her academic writings and Senate votes.

...
The number of male operatives under consideration for campaign manager posts has raised concerns among some female Democratic strategists who hoped the diversity of the 2020 field would prompt more hiring of female and minority staffers for senior roles.

The article also mentions Beto O'Rourke, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg, John Hickenlooper, Sherrod Brown, and Amy Klobuchar.

 

[lpetrich]

Elizabeth Warren launches 2020 presidential exploratory committee She has a video of her announcement at her site: Elizabeth Warren

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren announced Monday that she is establishing an exploratory committee to consider a 2020 White House bid, vowing to be a tenacious advocate for economic fairness and rebuilding the middle class.

In filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to allow her to begin raising and spending money to benefit her likely candidacy, Warren becomes the first big-name Democrat to take formal steps to enter what could be a crowded, expensive and extended contest for the party’s presidential nomination.

 

[southernhybrid]

I just unsubscribed from Warren's emails. She's not my first choice and I'm really tired of getting constantly begged for money from politicians. I gave to Stacey Abrams because I was a strong supporter but Stacey keeps asking me for money too. Give it a rest. I love Stacey but don't think she wants or is ready to run for president.

I have no idea who my first choice is right now. There is plenty of time to decide. I hope the field narrows quite a bit before the primary season. When you have too many candidates, you are likely to end up with the kookiest populist. That, imo, is how the Republicans ended up with Trump.