Egypt Air Flight 804 missing

[Jimmy Higgins]

Unfortunately, with the rampant speculation from the press and the need for people have an instantaneous answer, most Americans are going to believe this was terrorism no matter what the real cause is ultimately found to be. The attention span of the public is way too short to even the notice the actual report when it comes out.

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

I think Artemus hit a nerve.

 

[TSwizzle]

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

I think Artemus hit a nerve.

I think Artemus is just tedious.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think Artemus hit a nerve.

I think Artemus is just tedious.

Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President. So no... I don't think Artemus is being tedious. Some people seem to mistake relying on experience and knowledge with being tedious, but that itself is foolish.

 

[TSwizzle]

I think Artemus is just tedious.

Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President. So no... I don't think Artemus is being tedious. Some people seem to mistake relying on experience and knowledge with being tedious, but that itself is foolish.

Oh for fucks sake.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President. So no... I don't think Artemus is being tedious. Some people seem to mistake relying on experience and knowledge with being tedious, but that itself is foolish.

Oh for fucks sake.

Yeah... your post is a good example of that.

 

[TSwizzle]

Oh for fucks sake.

Yeah... your post is a good example of that.

*yawn*

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah... your post is a good example of that.

*yawn*

So, do you have anything to add regarding the assumption of terrorism in a crash that seems to have evidence that points otherwise, or are you just going to continue to be argumentative for the sake of it?

 

[TSwizzle]

*yawn*

So, do you have anything to add regarding the assumption of terrorism in a crash that seems to have evidence that points otherwise, or are you just going to continue to be argumentative for the sake of it?

zzzzzz

 

[KeepTalking]

Unfortunately, with the rampant speculation from the press and the need for people have an instantaneous answer, most Americans are going to believe this was terrorism no matter what the real cause is ultimately found to be. The attention span of the public is way too short to even the notice the actual report when it comes out.

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

So, what's your excuse, then?

 

[Artemus]

Unfortunately, with the rampant speculation from the press and the need for people have an instantaneous answer, most Americans are going to believe this was terrorism no matter what the real cause is ultimately found to be. The attention span of the public is way too short to even the notice the actual report when it comes out.

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

Actually I was being critical of all mainstream news sources here. CNN and CBS have been particularly irresponsible. I wouldn't know about Fox News in this case.

 

[TSwizzle]

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

So, what's your excuse, then?

What the fuck are you on about ?

 

[TSwizzle]

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

Actually I was being critical of all mainstream news sources here. CNN and CBS have been particularly irresponsible. I wouldn't know about Fox News in this case.

I wouldn't know.

 

[bilby]

Unfortunately, with the rampant speculation from the press and the need for people have an instantaneous answer, most Americans are going to believe this was terrorism no matter what the real cause is ultimately found to be. The attention span of the public is way too short to even the notice the actual report when it comes out.

Agreed. Most Americans are baseball watching, gun toting, inbred, ignorant dumb fuckers so that is is the natural conclusion most of them will come to after watching Faux News all day.

Now that's going a bit far.

Some Americans don't watch baseball at all.

 

[bilby]

Say a plane leaving from Egypt wouldn't be surprising. A plane leaving London, Paris, Berlin would be surprising.

Should not be. You can bring a bomb through some Egypt airport and then board some plane transit through Berlin and give it to your accomplice in Berlin airport transit zone.

Actually, that's not been possible for a few years now; all airports in the EU segregate arriving from departing passengers, for exactly this reason. If you are in transit from outside the EU, you have to go through security screening to move from one stream to the other.

 

[TSwizzle]

An EgyptAir flight that crashed in the Mediterranean did not swerve and change direction before disappearing, an Egyptian official says.
The Airbus A320 was en route from Paris to Cairo with 66 people aboard when it vanished from radar early on Thursday. Greece's defence minister said the plane turned 90 degrees left and then did a 360-degree turn towards the right before plummeting. But a senior Egyptian aviation official said there was no unusual movement. Ehab Azmy, the head of Egypt's state-run provider of air navigation services, told Associated Press the plane had been flying at its normal height of 37,000ft (11,280m) before dropping off the radar. Some debris has since been found. "That fact degrades what the Greeks are saying about the aircraft suddenly losing altitude before it vanished from radar," he said.

BBC

I don't think the Egyptian authorities should be the ones to be leading the investigation ! I expect once the "black boxes" are recovered and examined a clearer picture will emerge.

 

[bilby]

An EgyptAir flight that crashed in the Mediterranean did not swerve and change direction before disappearing, an Egyptian official says.
The Airbus A320 was en route from Paris to Cairo with 66 people aboard when it vanished from radar early on Thursday. Greece's defence minister said the plane turned 90 degrees left and then did a 360-degree turn towards the right before plummeting. But a senior Egyptian aviation official said there was no unusual movement. Ehab Azmy, the head of Egypt's state-run provider of air navigation services, told Associated Press the plane had been flying at its normal height of 37,000ft (11,280m) before dropping off the radar. Some debris has since been found. "That fact degrades what the Greeks are saying about the aircraft suddenly losing altitude before it vanished from radar," he said.

BBC

I don't think the Egyptian authorities should be the ones to be leading the investigation ! I expect once the "black boxes" are recovered and examined a clearer picture will emerge.

The responsibility for the investigation is determined by international treaty; It was an Egyptian registered aircraft, and it's last known position was in Egyptian controlled airspace, so Egypt gets to lead the investigation. The aircraft departed from France, and carried a number of french nationals, so the BEA can demand (and have taken) a cooperative role; and wreckage was located in the Greek search and rescue zone, so Greece also has a right to a cooperative role with the Egyptians, as do the investigation bureaux of any other nation whose citizens were on board.

The BEA also have a role as the aircraft was manufactured and first registered in France, and no doubt the Egyptians will lean heavily on the BEA's resources and expertise.

The Egyptian Authorities are not as 'media friendly' as those of us with an amateur interest in the facts might like; But I don't see any reason to believe that they are not competent to lead the official investigation. Just take anything they say that is not a part of an official air accident report with a grain of salt.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Interesting, one story suggests not terrorism. Egypt's claim screams terrorism. But was the plane within their radar when things went down hill?


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[barbos]

Should not be. You can bring a bomb through some Egypt airport and then board some plane transit through Berlin and give it to your accomplice in Berlin airport transit zone.

Actually, that's not been possible for a few years now; all airports in the EU segregate arriving from departing passengers, for exactly this reason.

That's fine but transit passengers need to get to their next plane.

If you are in transit from outside the EU, you have to go through security screening to move from one stream to the other.

OK, I did not know that. Is Albania in EU yet?

 

[Derec]

Nope. Pilot error is responsible for over 50% of fatal crashes. As I posted earlier in the thread:

How many of these fatal pilot errors occur during cruising? I bet hardly any. And I do not think you are suggesting pilot error was responsible for this crash, so it's still mostly between terrorism and equipment failure.

Your guess was that terrorism has a 33% chance of being the cause based on your mangling of the raw statistics I presented; the real number is 9%. 33% is a VERY significant overestimate. In short, when you said

"Half as common" would mean terrorism would still have 1/3 probability.

you were quite simply wrong.

That was based on your "twice as likely" and assuming these two are principal possibilities. After all, there wasn't any adverse weather and fatal pilot error during cruising is not very likely.

For one thing, the MetroJet bombing was quickly claimed by ISIS as their responsibility; if the same group attacked MS804, why are they keeping so quiet this time around?

That's actually the best point you have made yet.

How do you know this? Citation Needed.

The distance to the fuselage skin is mentioned here. The dependence of shock wave on distance and stuff that's in the way is basic physics.

That car looks like something Top Gear would use in one of their challenges.

"Somebody they interviewed on TV" is only slightly more reliable as a source than "a guy I met in the pub".

I can't recall the specific person or channel but usually they get aviation experts on after an event like this.

Well it is certainly far more complex than 'Aircraft + Muslims = Terrorism', which seems to be the prevailing (and rather stupid) attitude, particularly amongst US commentators and politicians.

Well, can you blame them? There has been Muslim terrorism involving aircraft almost as long as there has been mass airplane travel.

Americans really need to grow a pair - it's been 15 years since 9/11, and yet you guys are still disproportionately terrified of jihadists;

You are relatively safe down under. Not least because you have a more sane migration policy than EU or US.

It's been 25 years since the end of the cold war, and yet you are still so terrified of communism that a moderate like Bernie Sanders has you all quaking in your boots;

On the contrary, he is rather popular and has better likability factors than either of the presumptive nominees.

And many of you dare not even go to a school play, or to see a movie, without hiding a gun in your sock for the purpose of 'self defense'. What the fuck happened to the 'Home of the Brave' thing you used to have going? Is that even still a thing? It seems to me that the people who most lament how 'soft' America is getting, are the ones who are in fact shit-scared of trivial threats. You have nothing to fear, save fear itself.

"Home of the brave" has always been predicated upon packing heat.

 

[bilby]

Interesting, one story suggests not terrorism. Egypt's claim screams terrorism. But was the plane within their radar when things went down hill?


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There are four different 'boundaries' to be considered:

1) Territorial airspace extends (at most) 12nm (22km) off a nation's coast, so the aircraft went missing in international airspace.
2) International airspace doesn't belong to any particular nation, but to avoid leaving gaps in coverage, all airspace is allocated to a specified control facility, and the airspace for which a given facility has responsibility is called a Flight Information Region (FIR). The boundary on airway UL612 between the Athinai (Athens) and Cairo FIRs is at waypoint KUMBI, 33° 42' 50N 28° 45' 0E, about 178nm from Egypt and about 101nm from Karpathos in the Greek Dodecanese islands.
3) When a vessel or aircraft goes missing, Search and rescue responsibility is determined by the SAR boundaries, set by international convention, under the Auspices of the International Maritime Organization; The Egyptian SAR boundary coincides with the Cairo FIR boundary.
4) Radar coverage - this is dependent only on the technical capabilities of the radar, and areas of coverage often overlap. Military radar has shorter range than ATC radar for a given power output, but can track aircraft without a working transponder. I don't know the capabilities of the Cairo area control radar, but I would be surprised if MS804 was not visible to both Cairo and Athinai when contact was lost.

The aircraft crossed the Athinai/Cairo FIR boundary about 10nm (19km) before it disappeared from ATC radar; but that's a secondary radar, so its loss can imply simply that the transponder on board stopped - ATC radar these days almost always relies on active responses from aircraft transponders, so a plane disappearing from radar does NOT imply that it is no longer there.

Typically, only the military use much primary radar, and they are tight-lipped about exactly how far they can see, and at what altitudes they lose contact for a given location.

Given the last known position from ATC, it seems likely that military radar in both Greece and Egypt could see the aircraft at FL370, and it wouldn't be surprising if the US Navy also have some primary radar data from the Carrier Battle Group in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey and Israel are probably a bit too far away to have any data - and they won't be publishing their capability to see that far over the horizon if they do have it.

There is some speculation that the Greek military tracked the flight on primary radar making turns after loss of contact with ATC, but these rumors are now being disputed by the Egyptian authorities, and it is doubtful that anyone will provide much military radar information unless they can do so without revealing classified details of its capability.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually, that's not been possible for a few years now; all airports in the EU segregate arriving from departing passengers, for exactly this reason.

That's fine but transit passengers need to get to their next plane.

If you are in transit from outside the EU, you have to go through security screening to move from one stream to the other.

OK, I did not know that. Is Albania in EU yet?

No.