Egypt Air Flight 804 missing

[bilby]

How many of these fatal pilot errors occur during cruising? I bet hardly any. And I do not think you are suggesting pilot error was responsible for this crash, so it's still mostly between terrorism and equipment failure.

Don't be so sure; AF447 was due largely to pilot error.

Your guess was that terrorism has a 33% chance of being the cause based on your mangling of the raw statistics I presented; the real number is 9%. 33% is a VERY significant overestimate. In short, when you said

"Half as common" would mean terrorism would still have 1/3 probability.

you were quite simply wrong.

That was based on your "twice as likely" and assuming these two are principal possibilities. After all, there wasn't any adverse weather and fatal pilot error during cruising is not very likely.

Nothing is very likely. Fatal pilot error in cruise is not as uncommon as you seem to think.

For one thing, the MetroJet bombing was quickly claimed by ISIS as their responsibility; if the same group attacked MS804, why are they keeping so quiet this time around?

That's actually the best point you have made yet.

How do you know this? Citation Needed.

The distance to the fuselage skin is mentioned here. The dependence of shock wave on distance and stuff that's in the way is basic physics.

That car looks like something Top Gear would use in one of their challenges.

"Somebody they interviewed on TV" is only slightly more reliable as a source than "a guy I met in the pub".

I can't recall the specific person or channel but usually they get aviation experts on after an event like this.

Indeed; But some 'experts' are not very expert at all.

Well it is certainly far more complex than 'Aircraft + Muslims = Terrorism', which seems to be the prevailing (and rather stupid) attitude, particularly amongst US commentators and politicians.

Well, can you blame them? There has been Muslim terrorism involving aircraft almost as long as there has been mass airplane travel.

Americans really need to grow a pair - it's been 15 years since 9/11, and yet you guys are still disproportionately terrified of jihadists;

You are relatively safe down under. Not least because you have a more sane migration policy than EU or US.

It's been 25 years since the end of the cold war, and yet you are still so terrified of communism that a moderate like Bernie Sanders has you all quaking in your boots;

On the contrary, he is rather popular and has better likability factors than either of the presumptive nominees.

And many of you dare not even go to a school play, or to see a movie, without hiding a gun in your sock for the purpose of 'self defense'. What the fuck happened to the 'Home of the Brave' thing you used to have going? Is that even still a thing? It seems to me that the people who most lament how 'soft' America is getting, are the ones who are in fact shit-scared of trivial threats. You have nothing to fear, save fear itself.

"Home of the brave" has always been predicated upon packing heat.

Perhaps 'Home of the heavily armed' didn't scan well enough to make it into the lyrics.

 

[iolo]

I've always wondered why, if America is 'the home of the brave', it is so full of cowards relying on bang-bangs instead of men.. I think the key point to remember about 'freedom' is that Freud's nephew (I think it was) came over there and showed advertisers how to fix simple heads, and the rich have gone from strength to strength since.

 

[ZiprHead]

I think it's up in the air.

Not anymore. Too soon?

 

[Artemus]

Actually I was being critical of all mainstream news sources here. CNN and CBS have been particularly irresponsible. I wouldn't know about Fox News in this case.

Well, shit. This morning all the mainstream outlets were parroting an AP report that an unnamed Egyptian forensics expert had said that the condition of the bodies indicated that there was an explosion, but now they are reporting that named Egyptian forensics experts have that the reports are baseless and "has not come from the Forensic Medical Department or any forensic doctor among its employees." When the **** are they going to learn????

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Actually I was being critical of all mainstream news sources here. CNN and CBS have been particularly irresponsible. I wouldn't know about Fox News in this case.

Well, shit. This morning all the mainstream outlets were parroting an AP report that an unnamed Egyptian forensics expert had said that the condition of the bodies indicated that there was an explosion, but now they are reporting that named Egyptian forensics experts have that the reports are baseless and "has not come from the Forensic Medical Department or any forensic doctor among its employees." When the **** are they going to learn????

Are they being paid to lie? Otherwise, why would Egypt want to create an illusion that you shouldn't go to Egypt due to the threat of terror? I mean other than the whole, Egyptair is in huge fucking trouble if this was a maintenance issue.

 

[TSwizzle]

I wonder if the latest news is down to just plain old incompetence. Egypt don't seem capable of leading this investigation.

 

[Artemus]

Well, shit. This morning all the mainstream outlets were parroting an AP report that an unnamed Egyptian forensics expert had said that the condition of the bodies indicated that there was an explosion, but now they are reporting that named Egyptian forensics experts have that the reports are baseless and "has not come from the Forensic Medical Department or any forensic doctor among its employees." When the **** are they going to learn????

Are they being paid to lie? Otherwise, why would Egypt want to create an illusion that you shouldn't go to Egypt due to the threat of terror? I mean other than the whole, Egyptair is in huge fucking trouble if this was a maintenance issue.

Who knows who the "unnamed forensics expert" was in the first place? The initial report was irresponsible...a plane hitting the water at hundreds of miles per hour is perfectly capable of doing very serious damage to the human body...and now they are trying to backtrack. The press needs to wait until there is actually something to report before "reporting."

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I wonder if the latest news is down to just plain old incompetence. Egypt don't seem capable of leading this investigation.

Egyptair may be out of business if someone screwed up with the plane, which would be a good motive to fabricate information.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

/mod

 

[Artemus]

Who knows who the "unnamed forensics expert" was in the first place? The initial report was irresponsible...a plane hitting the water at hundreds of miles per hour is perfectly capable of doing very serious damage to the human body...and now they are trying to backtrack. The press needs to wait until there is actually something to report before "reporting."

Should probably let it go, but  Swissair Flight 111 went down in the ocean due to a fire and

...the force of impact was "in the order of at least 350 g" meaning that the bodies of nearly everyone on the flight were fragmented...

At this point it could be anything.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Should probably let it go, but  Swissair Flight 111 went down in the ocean due to a fire and

...the force of impact was "in the order of at least 350 g" meaning that the bodies of nearly everyone on the flight were fragmented...

I remember that one. Remember the news crews at Peggy's Cove and thinking, 'I've been there.'

At this point it could be anything.

So you aren't ruling out those things that John Lithgow saw then?

 

[Artemus]

At this point it could be anything.

So you aren't ruling out those things that John Lithgow saw then?

Of course not. It's John Frikkin Lithgow!!!

 

[Derec]

Don't be so sure; AF447 was due largely to pilot error.

That is one case and also it was a combination of technical failure and pilots not responding to the emergency properly. A fatal "unforced" (to borrow a term from tennis) pilot error would be rather rare I would think.
Also, that breakdown of causes applies to planes above 19 passengers. So it would include some rather small planes, which would be more susceptible to pilot error (as they tend to have less skilled/experienced pilots) and less susceptible to terrorism (not a high profile enough target).

Indeed; But some 'experts' are not very expert at all.

Fair enough. Bottom line is, we still don't know what happened.

Perhaps 'Home of the heavily armed' didn't scan well enough to make it into the lyrics.

I think a lot of the infatuation Americans have with guns has to do with the conquering frontier thing. Between Indians on war path to French and Spanish there has been a lot of fighting to do. On the other hand, in Australia you only had a few Aborigines. And as far as I know there are no "jackaroos and Aborigines" movies out there.

 

[bilby]

I wonder if the latest news is down to just plain old incompetence. Egypt don't seem capable of leading this investigation.

There's no evidence of that. Just that Egypt doesn't seem capable of managing the media.

There is a reason that western society is lousy with PR hacks and media liason officials, and why everyone else in a western organisation has a clause in their employment contract banning them from speaking to the press.

I'm not at all convinced that the lack of management and manipulation of the news by the Egyptian authorities is a bad thing; perhaps it will teach reporters some valuable lessons about the fundamental unreliability of unofficial spokesmen, and the need to check the facts before reporting. Of course, it probably won't; but at least their clownish 'news' reports provide some much needed light relief.

None of this reflects on the actual investigation, from which we have yet to hear anything - so it is extremely premature to suggest that we know how capably it is being conducted.

 

[TSwizzle]

I wonder if the latest news is down to just plain old incompetence. Egypt don't seem capable of leading this investigation.

Egyptair may be out of business if someone screwed up with the plane, which would be a good motive to fabricate information.

I think Egyptian authorities have tried to dodge around what has really happened in previous place crashes. I read somewhere they turned over an air crash to French authorities and didn't like their conclusion.

 

[barbos]

The ACARS messages remind me of this:

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/2500360/ao-2009-027%20final.doc

OTHER WINDSHIELD EVENTS
Following the occurrence involving VH-EBF, the ATSB was alerted to several other incidents also associated with electrical arcing and burning from the vicinity of the windshield connectors on Airbus A320 and A330 aircraft. Three of the failures are summarised below.

All Nippon Airways: On 19 May 2009, during cruise at 37,000 ft, the flight crew of a Japanese-registered A320 aircraft reported that a loud ‘bang’ was heard followed by the immediate observation of sparks and smoke from the left windshield. In response, the pilots put on oxygen masks per the ‘Smoke/Fumes/Avionics Smoke’ checklist and continued the flight.

Asiana Airlines: On 2 July 2009, the flight crew of a South Korean-registered Airbus A330 aircraft reported a burning smell and electrical arcing around the right windshield heating connector. The aircraft manufacturer reported that ‘power to the windshield heater was cut by the WHC’. The aircraft operator reported that the post-flight report recorded a ‘R WSHLD/WHC 2 fault, with the corresponding ECAM message ‘A.ICE R WSHLD HEAT’. After landing, that windshield was also sent to the component manufacturer (see section titled Additional testing).

Sichuan Airlines: On 9 August 2009, 21 minutes after takeoff, the flight crew of a Chinese-registered Airbus A320 aircraft reported a burning smell and electrical arcing near the left windshield heating connector. The A.ICE L WINDOW HEAT ECAM message was triggered and a portable fire extinguisher was used in the vicinity of the windshield connector. That windshield was subsequently removed from the aircraft and sent to the component manufacturer for examination (see section titled Additional testing).

Well, according to some reports they had temperature increased in the area of right window. So yeah, it looks more and more similar to that.
Does not look good for Airbus, they had multiple warnings and did nothing to fix the problem.

 

[bilby]

The ACARS messages remind me of this:

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/2500360/ao-2009-027%20final.doc

Well, according to some reports they had temperature increased in the area of right window. So yeah, it looks more and more similar to that.
Does not look good for Airbus, they had multiple warnings and did nothing to fix the problem.

Well, that's not quite fair; they did quite a lot. The question is, was it enough to fix the whole problem?

From the same ATSB report:

Airbus advised the ATSB that they were working with the windshield manufacturer in order to mitigate the possibility of recurrent windshield overheat events. Improvements to the windshield manufacturing processes include:

• polysulfide sealant (PR1829) is no longer used within the body of the terminal block

• the crimping process for electrical connectors has been improved

• the braided wire lengths inside the connector block and the electrical connector pin installation method have been optimised, which has resulted in the reduced potential for contact to occur between the power and sensor wires.

The windows have to be heated to prevent icing, and it's bloody cold at cruising altitude, so that takes a lot of power. If that power is delivered to heating up insulation via a short circuit, rather than heating the window glass, then bad things will result.

 

[barbos]

Well, according to some reports they had temperature increased in the area of right window. So yeah, it looks more and more similar to that.
Does not look good for Airbus, they had multiple warnings and did nothing to fix the problem.

Well, that's not quite fair; they did quite a lot. The question is, was it enough to fix the whole problem?

From the same ATSB report:

Airbus advised the ATSB that they were working with the windshield manufacturer in order to mitigate the possibility of recurrent windshield overheat events. Improvements to the windshield manufacturing processes include:

• polysulfide sealant (PR1829) is no longer used within the body of the terminal block

• the crimping process for electrical connectors has been improved

• the braided wire lengths inside the connector block and the electrical connector pin installation method have been optimised, which has resulted in the reduced potential for contact to occur between the power and sensor wires.

The windows have to be heated to prevent icing, and it's bloody cold at cruising altitude, so that takes a lot of power. If that power is delivered to heating up insulation via a short circuit, rather than heating the window glass, then bad things will result.

They should have had detectors and automatic shutdown of faulty circuits.

 

[iolo]

I think a lot of the infatuation Americans have with guns has to do with the conquering frontier thing. Between Indians on war path to French and Spanish there has been a lot of fighting to do. On the other hand, in Australia you only had a few Aborigines. And as far as I know there are no "jackaroos and Aborigines" movies out there.

The native Australians were less accustomed to warfare, and very poorly armed, after all. The Americans are a much more mixed people, too, and many of their forebears worshipped bullies in a way that British-derived people seldom do. I think that the main point, though, is that America is so divided into (often imagined) communities who fear and dislike one another that it is fairly easy to sell them bang-bangs to kill their bugbears, as if they could have concentration camps without the moral cost. It seems to have been in the South that the alleged 'right to bear arms' flourished, so that they could kill black people.

 

[Playball40]

So you aren't ruling out those things that John Lithgow saw then?

Of course not. It's John Frikkin Lithgow!!!

You know William Shatner saw them first!!!

- - - Updated - - -

That is one case and also it was a combination of technical failure and pilots not responding to the emergency properly. A fatal "unforced" (to borrow a term from tennis) pilot error would be rather rare I would think.
Also, that breakdown of causes applies to planes above 19 passengers. So it would include some rather small planes, which would be more susceptible to pilot error (as they tend to have less skilled/experienced pilots) and less susceptible to terrorism (not a high profile enough target).

Indeed; But some 'experts' are not very expert at all.

Fair enough. Bottom line is, we still don't know what happened.

Perhaps 'Home of the heavily armed' didn't scan well enough to make it into the lyrics.

I think a lot of the infatuation Americans have with guns has to do with the conquering frontier thing. Between Indians on war path to French and Spanish there has been a lot of fighting to do. On the other hand, in Australia you only had a few Aborigines. And as far as I know there are no "jackaroos and Aborigines" movies out there.

Indians on the 'war path'? Really??