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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

barbos

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Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
 

barbos

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Kőrösi studied at the Moscow Institute of International Relations (Russia), the University of Leeds Institute of International Relations (United Kingdom), the Truman Institute for Middle East Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel), and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (United States of America).[4]

That explains his nearly perfect russian.
 

barbos

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Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
 

Jayjay

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Hungarian delegation member addressing UN meeting, in ...... russian.

Csaba Kőrösi is the president of the 77th UN General Assembly. Not part of the "Hungarian delegation". He represents the UN.

His 12 minute speech, in English, included a portion where he switched to different languages. I could recognize French and Russian, maybe Arabic, and at least one more. So it's not some sort of concession that Hungary or the world are siding with Russia on this war. It just happened to be one of the languages he speaks.
 

Jayjay

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Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
What also explains it is that Russian MoD is full of shit. It has lied before, why wouldn't it lie now?

Shoigu had to make up some number not to seem completely detached from reality, and to not let the Ukrainian published numbers dominate conversation at a time when reservists are starting to calculate their odds of coming back alive from Ukraine.
 

barbos

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His 12 minute speech, in English, included a portion where he switched to different languages.
Do you have a link to full speech?
it's not some sort of concession that Hungary or the world are siding with Russia on this war.
Hungary or the world are not siding with US/UK neocons.
Interestingly enough. Pakistan has sided with Russia. That is after US reportedly overthrew their previous PM for being too pro-russian. In reality new PM is even more pro-russian :)
 

barbos

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Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
What also explains it is that Russian MoD is full of shit. It has lied before, why wouldn't it lie now?

Shoigu had to make up some number not to seem completely detached from reality, and to not let the Ukrainian published numbers dominate conversation at a time when reservists are starting to calculate their odds of coming back alive from Ukraine.
No, that's not a lie. He said it's russian army losses. Total losses are estimated by various independent millitary experts to be 15-25K. Ukrainian losses are estimated to be 60-100K dead.

Ukrainian Defence Minister lied about ~9K losses of ukrainian millitary.
 

Jayjay

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Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
What also explains it is that Russian MoD is full of shit. It has lied before, why wouldn't it lie now?

Shoigu had to make up some number not to seem completely detached from reality, and to not let the Ukrainian published numbers dominate conversation at a time when reservists are starting to calculate their odds of coming back alive from Ukraine.
No, that's not a lie. He said it's russian army losses. Total losses are estimated by various independent millitary experts to be 15-25K. Ukrainian losses are estimated to be 60-100K dead.
Use your brain. If Ukrainian losses were "100k dead", there would be no one left, because the amount of wounded would make the effective casualties 3-5 times that.

If you take Russian official figures at face values, then you should do the same with Ukraine: 9000 dead a month ago. So maybe over 10k now. I have a rule that Ukraine lies by a factor of 2 (and Russian by a factor of 10), so that would make it 20k. In the same ballpark as Russia. But the fact is that nobody outside Ukrainian and Russian top military and government officials knows the exact figures.
 

barbos

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Use your brain. If Ukrainian losses were "100k dead", there would be no one left, because the amount of wounded would make the effective casualties 3-5 times that.
In the beginning they had 200K army+nazis.
Then they had 300+K mobilization. Original 200K no longer exist as military force, they are either dead or wounded beyond millitary use.

So yeah, that's estimates from experts - 60-100K

9K number is laughable. 9K is what they lost in this September offensive alone
 

Jayjay

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Starts at about 31 minutes.
He does not speak arabic/french there. It's someone else translating him.
Did you listen to it or does Russian youtube has a different audio track? The translators are translating from French/Russian/etc. to English. I'm not confident enough about my ability to recognize Arabic, but the French portion starts at 33:15. If that's not French, I'm Napoleon Bonaparte.
 

barbos

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Did you listen to it or does Russian youtube has a different audio track? The translators are translating from French/Russian/etc. to English.
On your link he is only heard speaking english. What language he speaks when he is translated to french-arabic I don't know, could be english too. I don't read lips.

My video shows him clearly speaking russian with his own mouth. Again, excellent pronunciation with a slight georgian accent.
 

Jayjay

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Use your brain. If Ukrainian losses were "100k dead", there would be no one left, because the amount of wounded would make the effective casualties 3-5 times that.
In the beginning they had 200K army+nazis.
Then they had 300+K mobilization. Original 200K no longer exist as military force, they are either dead or wounded beyond millitary use.

So yeah, that's estimates from experts - 60-100K
You said 100k dead. That means half a million casualties including the wounded, and if that were true, the war would have been over a long time ago, and there would certainly be no need for Putin to resort to mobilization.
 

Jayjay

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Did you listen to it or does Russian youtube has a different audio track? The translators are translating from French/Russian/etc. to English.
On your link he is only heard speaking english.
Get a hearing aid. The part where he speaks Russian is there too. The audio of the translators is distracting, but you can clear hear at least some words when the translators pause between sentences.
 

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Jayjay

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Minor protests in St. Petersburg. But not very many, and obviously they'll be put down if they haven't been already.



Most Russian people are sheep.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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It's pretty clear that Pewtin fears western freedom because the closer it gets the more his theft, corruption and gangsterism is threatened. He'll use any means those around him will allow. He's typical Ruski in this regard. Western aid to Ukraine and western democracy notwithstanding the only real threat to his ability to continue to enrich himself is his ability to manipulate the population. The guy chose between driving a cab and being a ruthless, wealthy murderer.
 

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FdKy4FdWQAAsUVt
 

bilby

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I hope barbos is already out.
I'm pretty sure anyone with unmitigated internet access even now as the war machine spins up is already immune to the draft.
 

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steve_bank

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It was in the news that flights out of Russia were totally booked.

The old saying goes people vote with their feet.
 

Copernicus

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Protests now breaking out all over Russia:

Hundreds arrested in protests across Russia after announcement of partial mobilization, monitoring group says


More than 500 people have been detained across Russia in a crackdown on anti-war protests across two dozen cities in Russia, according to the independent monitoring group OVD-Info.

About 100 arrests were made at protests in St. Petersburg after President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a partial mobilization to increase the availability of troops for the war in Ukraine.

Photos released on OVD-Info's Telegram channel showed police in Saint Petersburg using batons against protesters. Videos show police attempting to contain a crowd gathering at Isakiivskiy Cathedral behind barriers, amid chants of “no mobilization."

Social media video geolocated by CNN showed protests in several cities, each involving what appear to have been a few dozen people.

Videos from Moscow showed protestors being carried away by the police at a demonstration in the center of the city.

One video posted by a journalist from the Moscow web publication The Village includes dozens of people in Arbatskaya street chanting “let him go” as one man is carried away.

There was also video from the city of Yekaterinburg of a struggle between police officers and protesters.

As of 8 p.m. Moscow time, 535 people had been detained in 30 cities across Russia, according to OVD-Info.

Arrests took place in Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Novosibirsk, Ulan-Ude, Tomsk, Ufa, Perm, Belgorod and Moscow, according to the OVD-info tally.

Moscow prosecutor's office published a statement Wednesday warning citizens against participation in protests, threatening those with up to 15 years in jail.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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If barbos was in soviet service thirty years ago and is in country he's possibly a fucked duck. They're taking people into their 60s. He'll get to sing patriotic songs about the motherland while he awaits an ignominious death.
 

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Независимый правозащитный медиа-проект ОВД-Инфо - "Independent human rights media project OVD-Info"
with
Списки задержанных в связи с акциями против мобилизации 21 сентября | ОВД-News - "Lists of detainees in connection with actions against mobilization on September 21 | OVD-News"

I looked for patterns in the locations of where people have been arrested for protesting this mobilization order, and I couldn't find any clear patterns. OVD has discovered arrests all over Russia, except in the Russian Far East.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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Независимый правозащитный медиа-проект ОВД-Инфо - "Independent human rights media project OVD-Info"
with
Списки задержанных в связи с акциями против мобилизации 21 сентября | ОВД-News - "Lists of detainees in connection with actions against mobilization on September 21 | OVD-News"

I looked for patterns in the locations of where people have been arrested for protesting this mobilization order, and I couldn't find any clear patterns. OVD has discovered arrests all over Russia, except in the Russian Far East.
Does Russia have a civil society. Isn't it like North Korea? There haven't been free elections for a couple decades and there are no freedoms in Russia like in the west.
 

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Putin orders troop conscription in Ukraine war escalation | Reuters
Putin also effectively announced plans to annex four Ukrainian provinces, saying Moscow would assist with referendums on joining Ukraine's Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to Russia, and implement the results.
A strip across eastern and southern Ukraine, a strip with a lot of ethnic Russians.
Offering no evidence, Putin accused officials in NATO states of threatening to use nuclear weapons against Russia. They should know that "the weathervane can turn towards them", he said, adding that Russia "also has various means of destruction".

Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up | Reuters

Flights either sold out or expensive: Istanbul, Turkey; Yerevan, Armenia; Tbilisi, Eurasian Georgia; Dubai, UAE.
 

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More than 1,300 detained in anti-mobilisation protests across Russia -rights group | Reuters -- OVD-Info

Baltic nations say they will refuse refuge to Russians fleeing mobilisation | Reuters
On Twitter, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics cited security concerns for the refusal. The Lithuanian Interior Ministry said each asylum case would be weighted separately.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland.
The ban excludes Russian dissidents seeking refuge in the EU along with lorry drivers, refugees and permanent residents of EU countries as well as those visiting close family members.
 

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If barbos was in soviet service thirty years ago and is in country he's possibly a fucked duck. They're taking people into their 60s. He'll get to sing patriotic songs about the motherland while he awaits an ignominious death.
I'm pretty sure "propaganda spigot" is a profession exempted from military obligations. Or rather, a different form of fulfillment of duty to the war effort.
 

steve_bank

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People loved Mussolini when he brought order and prosperity. Not so much when he brought ruin to the country.
 

steve_bank

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With Putin saying he will use nuclear weapons does anyone doubt he is a madman?

Sometimes I think this can't be real and somebody is playimng a joke on me.
 

bilby

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With Putin saying he will use nuclear weapons does anyone doubt he is a madman?

He's a madman with nukes. How does the world best deal with a madman with nukes? That's the question.
In the past, the solution has been for other people with nukes to point out that the first person to use one will get his country (including himself, his family, and everything he cares about) turned into a sea of radioactive glass within the hour.

JFK said:
It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union.
 

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Putin just stopped men aged 18 to 50 from leaving the country by air.

I hope this turns into a total shit show. What better with my morning coffee.
I hope so too, but it'll probably not happen. They arrested over a thousand people back in February also during the initial protests against the war, but nothing came out of that. Mere 500 or less arrested today means it'll be less than a hundred tomorrow, then down to a trickle.

As long as Putin keeps the actual numbers of draftees low enough, people are not going to go to the streets. Protesting the war makes you a target for mobilization. Sane people will try to keep their heads down and hope that it's their neighbor that gets taken and not them. And insane people are already in Putin's corner, or in jail.
 

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More than 1,300 detained in anti-mobilisation protests across Russia -rights group | Reuters -- OVD-Info

Baltic nations say they will refuse refuge to Russians fleeing mobilisation | Reuters
On Twitter, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics cited security concerns for the refusal. The Lithuanian Interior Ministry said each asylum case would be weighted separately.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland.
The ban excludes Russian dissidents seeking refuge in the EU along with lorry drivers, refugees and permanent residents of EU countries as well as those visiting close family members.
That is absolutely the right policy. One might think that providing asylum to draft dodgers is a humane thing to do, but why give them an easy way out? If they don't want to be sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine, they can protest that in Russia and help end the war.

Also, if you're a country neighboring Russia, and see what's happened to Ukraine, do you really want to have a sizeable Russian population within your borders? One of Putin's pretexts for the war was to "protect" the Russian minority in Ukraine.
 
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