How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=623870614f71af55b461536d%26How%20widespread%20is%20rationing%20in%20Russia%3F%262022-03-21T12%3A53%3A50.237Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:72e8b8e2-4e30-46a9-b1d8-0331db3a4a6b&pinned_post_asset_id=623870614f71af55b461536d&pinned_post_type=share

We're getting more reports about rationing of some staple foods in Russia. There has been particular demand for sugar.

In the far eastern Maritime Region, supermarkets have imposed limits of 2kg per customer for sugar, flour, rice, buckwheat, salt and macaroni; 2L of vegetable oil and three jars of baby food. The rationing was reported by Russia’s business daily Kommersant.

In Khabarovsk, a city in that region, there has been panic-buying of sugar, and it has disappeared from many supermarket shelves, a local news agency reports.

However, deputy industry and trade minister Viktor Yevtukhov insists “there is no problem with sugar”, as Russia produces enough for itself and has banned sugar exports.

The St Petersburg supermarket chain Vkuster told Kommersant that it was also limiting sugar sales to 2kg per customer. “When one customer fills a whole basket with bags of sugar, others look at him and think about stockpiling too,” said Vkuster director Sergei Plis.

Last week the national statistics service Rosstat said sugar prices had jumped nearly 13%.

 

[Elixir]

13%?

 

[SLD]

An inside look at how Putin operates and officials reactions of the decision to go to war.

"They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf*ck"

How Russian officials and members of parliament really feel about Putin’s decision to send troops to Ukraine

faridaily.substack.com

they’re already calling their invasion a clusterfuck. It is. The bank head is in mourning because everything he built has just come crashing down. Putin never really told anyone what he planned on doing. Like me, everyone on the inside thought he would stop at just the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk. But they were all surprised that he would go on to bomb Kiev. Now they are trying to keep their heads down and survive like they were under Stalin.

This really questions Russia’s staying power in this war. It will take months of losses and significant reinforcements to capture any of these cities and with so many insiders against it, can they really sustain it for that long? Something has to give. Either Putin institutes martial law in Russia and they all bend to his will, mobilizing their entire forces for a victory (even that is not assured though) or there is such rising dissatisfaction that eventually somebody deep in the Kremlin takes action like a Stauffenberg wanna be. In the meantime, tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die.

 

[Thomas II]

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine may not win the war, but they will win the Eurovison Song Contest for sure.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

@Jayjay By "win," we need more clear definition.

At this point, I do not believe that anybody, even anybody with sense in the Russian government, believes that Russia is going to march confidently into Kyiv, rename it "Kiev," and install an obedient jumping jack with a rigged vote. Only a lunatic still thinks that's going to happen.

However, the government of Ukraine has not managed to take back Crimea after several years. I do not know enough about the situation in either Donetsk or Donbas to say for sure what their future is.

I am reasonably hopeful that Ukraine will be able to take back Kherson and Melipotol with adequate international support.

Hell will freeze over solid before Russia holds Mariupol. If Putin is mentally handicapped enough to think he can hold that hornet's nest, then he is more daffy than I originally thought. Mariupol's babunyas are more vicious than his most murderous general. Those people are crazy.

Whether or not Ukraine can succeed at holding all of their territory and throwing off Russia's unlawful occupation of Crimea, which I am not certain they cannot, I believe that Ukraine will ultimately come out of this situation better than Russia.

After all, Ukraine has never had more moral credibility in the international community. Furthermore, they have kindled that rare but magical political alchemy between progressive liberalism and national pride, which almost guarantees a vigorous progressive government for at least a couple of generations. Culturally, intellectually, and economically, Ukraine would still thrive even if they lost substantially more territory than they are conceivably likely to lose, at this point in the war. Furthermore, as hard as it makes me sound if I seem to treat human life as if it were fungible, which I assure you I really do not, Ukraine is nevertheless likely to have a population boom in the wake of the war, so their population is likely to be increased within a generation, rather than decreased.

Russia, on the other hand, could only get all of the sanctions against them removed and restore their image in the eyes of the world if they handed Putin over trussed-up like a chicken on a silver platter and said "Hang the bastard, for we are tired of him, now." As long as Putin remains in power in Moscow, he will be a political liability to that country. The Russian government has most likely caused irreversible damage to their international relations, and I honestly doubt they can realistically recover short of the European Enlightenment finally reaching Russia, centuries late. Furthermore, they have proved to Europe what folly it is to let themselves into a position where they need to depend upon Russian fossil fuels, and politicians in Europe that call for the further development of solar and wind energy and other efforts at achieving energy independence are likely to be profoundly popular throughout their polity: this is ultimately going to cost Russia more, in the long-run, than they could have possibly imagined. Finally, western Europe has not been this politically unified in centuries.

Even if Russia were to succeed at clinging to a few ill-gotten postage-stamps of territory, to call this a real triumph for their country would be delusional. The only way that Russia could even hold that territory would be if they gave up before Ukraine finished butchering their army. If it never occurs to them to retreat, then they will even lose Crimea. Ukraine has become a death-trap for their army, and retreating to soil that they have a chance of being able to hold is their only hope for gaining anything at all by this fool's errand.

 

[Copernicus]

A NATO intelligence officer has offered his analysis of how the war is trending:

NATO official sees Russia-Ukraine war entering a stalemate: ‘Neither side here can win’​

It appears that Russia now wants to bring involve Belarus by using its army and stationing nuclear weapons inside of Belarus.

 

[lpetrich]

Opinion | In Ukraine, It’s Putin’s Plan B vs. Biden’s and Zelensky’s Plan A - The New York Times by Thomas Friedman

He speculates on Pres. Putin's possible plans.

After a confusing month, it is now clear what strategies are playing out in Ukraine: We’re watching Vladimir Putin’s plan B versus Joe Biden’s and Volodymyr Zelensky’s plans A. Let us hope that Biden and Zelensky triumph, because Putin’s potential plan C is really scary — and I don’t even want to write what I fear would be his plan D.

I have no secret source in the Kremlin on this, only the experience of having watched Putin operate in the Middle East over many years. As such, it seems obvious to me that Putin, having realized that his plan A has failed — his expectation that the Russian Army would march into Ukraine, decapitate its “Nazi” leadership and then just wait as the whole country fell peacefully into Russia’s arms — has shifted to his plan B.

Plan B is that the Russian Army deliberately fires upon Ukrainian civilians, apartment blocks, hospitals, businesses and even bomb shelters — all of which has happened in the past few weeks — for the purpose of encouraging Ukrainians to flee their homes, creating a massive refugee crisis inside Ukraine and, even more important, a massive refugee crisis inside nearby NATO nations.

So far, Ukrainian refugees are being accepted much better than Syrian ones, and Eastern European NATO countries have united against this attack.

So Putin won't get an easy victory, and it looks like he will be joining the General Pyrrhus Fan Club.

I say “maybe” because Putin may feel he cannot tolerate any kind of draw or dirty compromise. He may feel that anything other than a total victory is a humiliation that would undermine his authoritarian grip on power. In that case, he could opt for a plan C — which, I am guessing, would involve air or rocket attacks on Ukrainian military supply lines across the border in Poland.

But Poland is a NATO member, and Putin might not want to pick a fight with that alliance.

If Putin’s plans A, B and C all fail, though, I fear that he would be a cornered animal and he could opt for plan D — launching either chemical weapons or the first nuclear bomb since Nagasaki. That is a hard sentence to write, and an even worse one to contemplate. But to ignore it as a possibility would be naïve in the extreme.

 

[Harry Bosch]

A NATO intelligence officer has offered his analysis of how the war is trending:

NATO official sees Russia-Ukraine war entering a stalemate: ‘Neither side here can win’​

It appears that Russia now wants to bring involve Belarus by using its army and stationing nuclear weapons inside of Belarus.

Yes, it looks like a stalemate. A terrible one for the civilians. But of course, stalemate means that the Ukranians are home. The invaders are not. I really think that the west must continue to send supplies and weapons to Ukraine. And we need to continue increasing the sanctions. We need to bankrupt Russia if we can.

 

[blastula]

The denazification appears to be going as planned.

Putin finishes up Hitler's work on Borys Romanchenko.

Russian strike kills 96-year-old Holocaust survivor in Ukraine

By Jack Guy, Olga Voitovych, Tim Lister and Victoria Butenko, CNN (CNN) -- A 96-year-old Holocaust survivor, Borys Romanchenko, was killed Friday by a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.Romanchenko's death was confirmed by the Buchenwald

www.cbs58.com

 

[Swammerdami]

H.R.6968 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Suspending Energy Imports from Russia Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

The only Democrats to vote against this bill were Ilhan Omar and Cori Bush, because they don't like sanctions that would cause trouble for ordinary Russians.

The Republicans included MTG, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, Louie Gohmert, Madison Cawthorn, and Andy Biggs.
...

Yet again, I marvel at right-wingers' Russia-loving.

I don't know why MTG, Boebert et al voted Nay (perhaps to suck up to Putin who helps QOPAnon steal elections?) but Thomas Piketty, distinguished French Professor of Economics, agrees with Omar and Bush in a recent piece in The Guardian. Broad-based sanctions hurt the Russian people but leave the super-rich friends of Putin unscathed. Piketty writes that a big reason why sanctions are not focused on the super-rich is that the influential super-rich in the West do not want to set a precedent.

Much of the wealth of Putin's super-rich criminal friends is invested in Western Europe and the U.S.A. The Guardian has another article about that. I hope the West is active in seizing those assets to put pressure on Putin and his friends. Might such seizures target "innocent" billionaires or have doubtful legality? Sure. But Putin's bombing of women and children is illegal and also targets innocents. Not only would seizing this criminal wealth hurt Putin where it matters, but it would provide less excuse for him to escalate than military aid does.

 

[Harry Bosch]

My wife would tell you that the biggest con that I ever pulled on her was convincing her that buying a 28 foot sailboat would be an investment!

How old were you when you did that?
I got lucky...
First. my father (who died when I was 9) had a 50-something foot ketch that he went treasure hunting in, never found enough to pay for gas (which, since it is a sailboat, was minimal) but always needed help - even the help of toddler offspring - to clean and re-finish its wood.

Second, my mom hooked up with a lawyer when I was 13, and he had a 24' sailboat I was allowed to "live" on for a summer, on the condition that I (and my little brother - useless) took care of it.

That shoulda learnt me, but no.... ten years later found me babysitting a friend's 40-something foot Fellows and Stewart sloop that was all mahogany and teak and was both beautiful and a terrible PITA.

That pretty much cured me. Down to a kayak and a canoe now. My older brother has a flats fishing boat, and even that is too much trouble. You go out and catch redfish or tarpon or whatever for 4-6 hours, then spend another 3-4 hours giving it a freshwater bath, rigging the hoist, checking all the compartments and hauling stuff up and down the dock...

I'm sure your wife now knows about those holes in the ocean.

Yes sail boats, any boat in the ocean, and any boat with a motor are so expensive! They are expensive in terms of time and money. Love kayaks. I just bought a hobie kayak for fishing, check it out:

Hobie Mirage Pro Angler 12 Pedal Fishing Kayak

Product DetailsCommand the water with the Hobie Mirage Pro Angler 12 Pedal Fishing Kayak. This versatile kayak has all the big-boat fishing features you love but fits snug in the bed of most pickup trucks. Vantage seating provides you with adjustability and comfort and can be moved for more...

www.fishusa.com

Very fun. Hope to catch some fish with it this weekend.

Back to the topic: I think that the west needs to after the toys and wealth owned by the Russian fanboys of this war.

 

[Elixir]

LOVE that Hobie!
Always wanted to try ocean fishing from a platform like that. A big tarpon could probably drag you for miles.
Let us know how it goes this weekend!!!

Is that a transom mount for a trolling motor??

/derail

 

[thebeave]

I love outdoor water adventures, but you guys can have the ocean. I'll stick with nice calm, beautiful mountain lakes. Worst day of my life (still) was ocean fishing on a charterted boat. Dry heaving none stop from 7:30 am to 3pm. A few years later, I even got a little queezy kayaking off the Monterey coast for a couple of hours. The curious otters were adorable though, so that was worth it. Anyway, what were we talking about? Was it bewbs? Oh yeah, Ukraine...

 

[steve_bank]

Damn!!! In the news the Ukrainians have taken back a city.

It is reported Zelensky will agree to not join NATO if Russia withdraws. That is puzzling as Putin obviusly can not be trusted. Putin wants the port city and a stretch of land to connect Crimea to Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

Damn!!! In the news the Ukrainians have taken back a city.

Makariv. A small town. According to google, its pop. was less than 10k.

And it seems that this is the second time it's been reported to be taken back from Russia. I guess Ukraine has to find its small victories where it can.

It is reported Zelensky will agree to not join NATO if Russia withdraws. That is puzzling as Putin obviusly can not be trusted. Putin wants the port city and a stretch of land to connect Crimea to Russia.

Actually I think it's smart. Russia claims that there is a plot by US and NATO to bring nuclear weapons to Ukraine and to eventually attack Russia. That's a lie, and by saying that Ukraine is fine with staying out of NATO and not having nukes, Zelensky can expose Putin's war as what it is: a land grab.

 

[bilby]

NATO is a mutual defence treaty. Ukraine might benefit from membership (though on current form they don't really need it), but NATO gains little, except a heightened risk of war, by having Ukraine join up.

Far better for all concerned would be for Ukraine to join the EU. The EU may not (yet) have an army, but the consequences of a military attack on an EU member state would certainly be devastating economically to any aggressor. And the peacetime benefits of membership are huge. Ukraine would absolutely boom economically as an EU member state.

 

[Jayjay]

NATO is a mutual defence treaty. Ukraine might benefit from membership (though on current form they don't really need it), but NATO gains little, except a heightened risk of war, by having Ukraine join up.

Far better for all concerned would be for Ukraine to join the EU. The EU may not (yet) have an army, but the consequences of a military attack on an EU member state would certainly be devastating economically to any aggressor. And the peacetime benefits of membership are huge. Ukraine would absolutely boom economically as an EU member state.

EU has some internal problems right now and it can't really accommodate new members. But the mere process of applying has some benefits. The key part is to get into a mutual customs and trade union which would be a huge boon to a developing country like Ukraine, just like it was for Poland for example.

 

[steve_bank]

Damn!!! In the news the Ukrainians have taken back a city.

Makariv. A small town. According to google, its pop. was less than 10k.

And it seems that this is the second time it's been reported to be taken back from Russia. I guess Ukraine has to find its small victories where it can.

It is reported Zelensky will agree to not join NATO if Russia withdraws. That is puzzling as Putin obviusly can not be trusted. Putin wants the port city and a stretch of land to connect Crimea to Russia.

Actually I think it's smart. Russia claims that there is a plot by US and NATO to bring nuclear weapons to Ukraine and to eventually attack Russia. That's a lie, and by saying that Ukraine is fine with staying out of NATO and not having nukes, Zelensky can expose Putin's war as what it is: a land grab.

Do you think Putin would actually`let it all go and respect Ukrainian boundaries?

I don't think it will unless Russia is defeated.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Do you think Putin would actually`let it all go and respect Ukrainian boundaries?

I don't think it will unless Russia is defeated.

Defeated, disarmed and democratized. The sociopath Russian Pig only wants power so he can steal more and more wealth.