How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think we may be inching towards a war with Russia. Part of Putin's appeal is his macho Russian male image. Sanctions are targeting his daughters. For someone like Putin a punch in the gut and severe loss of face.

I oinder if NATO is waiting for Russia to make te first strike against a NATO country, like Poland.

What?! The military is moving over to Eastern Ukraine, so back up the existing occupation forces to steal away 1/4 to 1/3 of Ukraine in a "peace" treaty. They don't have a military worth a darn to invade Poland. They are getting cut down by the Ukrainian soldiers, in the western part of the country (and maybe a bit in the eastern).

 

[Jayjay]

I think we may be inching towards a war with Russia. Part of Putin's appeal is his macho Russian male image. Sanctions are targeting his daughters. For someone like Putin a punch in the gut and severe loss of face.

I oinder if NATO is waiting for Russia to make te first strike against a NATO country, like Poland.

I think that's a complete mischaracterization of what drives Putin. He keeps his family out of limelight so noboby will probable even notice these sanctions. There is no "loss of face" if evil westerners go after his family. If anything, that bolsters his claim (and belief?) that US and NATO are spiteful anti-Russian bullies.

Only thing that can embarrass Putin is military failure in Ukraine. To avoid that, he might use nukes, or chemical weapons, or staged terror attacks in Russia (like he may have done earlier in his career to justify the war in Chechnia). I doubt he's attack Poland or any other NATO country though, unless NATO sends troops or planes to Ukraine.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Copernicus]

I think we may be inching towards a war with Russia. Part of Putin's appeal is his macho Russian male image. Sanctions are targeting his daughters. For someone like Putin a punch in the gut and severe loss of face.

I oinder if NATO is waiting for Russia to make te first strike against a NATO country, like Poland.

I think it highly unlikely that Russia will be attacking any NATO country in the near future. Here is why:

Russia's military suffers toll from its Ukraine invasion

 

[SLD]

I think we may be inching towards a war with Russia. Part of Putin's appeal is his macho Russian male image. Sanctions are targeting his daughters. For someone like Putin a punch in the gut and severe loss of face.

I oinder if NATO is waiting for Russia to make te first strike against a NATO country, like Poland.

I think it highly unlikely that Russia will be attacking any NATO country in the near future. Here is why:

Russia's military suffers toll from its Ukraine invasion

Concur. His military is incompetent. Logically, it would make no sense to attack a NATO country. But I wonder if he could do something desperate when he’s backed into a corner by Ukrainian victories due to all of the support they are getting from NATO? Perhaps surrounded by sycophants, he muses about striking at Ukrainian supply lines back in Poland, and claim it was a mistake in the hopes that NATO won’t do anything. I can see some dumbshit advisor say, “Sure, boss! Great idea!” And suddenly it has a life of its own. No one dares to contradict the leader for fear of their own position.

Not that I anticipate such. But unfortunately, it’s not entirely implausible. He’s also under a lot of stress, and may not be thinking clearly.

One other crazy idea is that Poland could accidentally trigger a conflict. What if they were to supply troops to Ukraine? Nothing in the NATO alliance prohibits it. What if they just allow soldiers to “vacation” in Ukraine and get involved on their own? Lots of foreigners have already joined the fight. Many Belorussians in fact. American veterans too. Could that trigger a response from Russia?

I still think we should initiate moves that at least force Putin to be concerned about such an attack. By positioning large numbers of troops in Eastern Europe, and even signaling hostile intent, we could force Russia to divert resources away from Ukraine. We should be flying sorties close to Russian airspace. We should consider carrier battle groups north of Murmansk and maybe sailing near Vladivostok. Perhaps he’d realize it’s a ruse and ignore them, but given his irrational paranoia about the West, I suspect he won’t.

 

[steve_bank]

I have heard people outsde of Rusia who know Putin say ir is the west that does not undertand how Putin thinks.

He is venting his failure by reducing Ukrain to rubble. It is no less than genocide.

Russia is the largest country in the world with plenty of resources. Taking Ukarine is simply ego and domination. The power of imposing will on people.

For a Hitker or Putin no amount f power is enough.

If Hitler had stopped and consolidated after his first success in Europe leaving Russia and Britain alone the world would be a different lae today.

Putin I suspect can not sit still, power has to increase. Putin could have stood pat and enjoy his dictatorship and his money, but it was not enough. The comoarison to Hitler is good. Hiter ade maey as an author, he was not poor although his political image was humble German. He managed to get legal dispensation from taxes. He and his oligarchs-kleptocracy lived in luxery.

There s a threshold where facing humiliation at home he would attack NATO to extend his existence in power. It is an old paradigm. Trouble at home, go to war.

 

[Jayjay]

There s a threshold where facing humiliation at home he would attack NATO to extend his existence in power. It is an old paradigm. Trouble at home, go to war.

He is already at war. Attacking NATO would surely backfire immensely. And even Putin knows it. He's already got his hands full with Ukraine, and some cards that he's yet to play if it seems like conventional methods don't bring him victory: mobilization of reserves, chemical or biological weapons, and if all else fails, nuclear weapons.

 

[Elixir]

I think we may be inching towards a war with Russia. Part of Putin's appeal is his macho Russian male image. Sanctions are targeting his daughters. For someone like Putin a punch in the gut and severe loss of face.

I oinder if NATO is waiting for Russia to make te first strike against a NATO country, like Poland.

I think it highly unlikely that Russia will be attacking any NATO country in the near future. Here is why:

Russia's military suffers toll from its Ukraine invasion

Concur. His military is incompetent. Logically, it would make no sense to attack a NATO country. But I wonder if he could do something desperate when he’s backed into a corner by Ukrainian victories due to all of the support they are getting from NATO? Perhaps surrounded by sycophants, he muses about striking at Ukrainian supply lines back in Poland, and claim it was a mistake in the hopes that NATO won’t do anything. I can see some dumbshit advisor say, “Sure, boss! Great idea!” And suddenly it has a life of its own. No one dares to contradict the leader for fear of their own position.

Not that I anticipate such. But unfortunately, it’s not entirely implausible. He’s also under a lot of stress, and may not be thinking clearly.

One other crazy idea is that Poland could accidentally trigger a conflict. What if they were to supply troops to Ukraine? Nothing in the NATO alliance prohibits it. What if they just allow soldiers to “vacation” in Ukraine and get involved on their own? Lots of foreigners have already joined the fight. Many Belorussians in fact. American veterans too. Could that trigger a response from Russia?

I still think we should initiate moves that at least force Putin to be concerned about such an attack. By positioning large numbers of troops in Eastern Europe, and even signaling hostile intent, we could force Russia to divert resources away from Ukraine. We should be flying sorties close to Russian airspace. We should consider carrier battle groups north of Murmansk and maybe sailing near Vladivostok. Perhaps he’d realize it’s a ruse and ignore them, but given his irrational paranoia about the West, I suspect he won’t.

Totally! (Been thinking that since week2 of the invasion)
Spread the fucker out. Spread him thin. Make him defend his fucking Country, or lose it.
He NEEDS to be forced to pay attention to Vladivostok!

 

[Copernicus]

I still think we should initiate moves that at least force Putin to be concerned about such an attack. By positioning large numbers of troops in Eastern Europe, and even signaling hostile intent, we could force Russia to divert resources away from Ukraine. We should be flying sorties close to Russian airspace. We should consider carrier battle groups north of Murmansk and maybe sailing near Vladivostok. Perhaps he’d realize it’s a ruse and ignore them, but given his irrational paranoia about the West, I suspect he won’t.

The problem is that such provocations can lead to our side making a mistake that triggers a nuclear response from Russia. It is simply too risky and irresponsible to play brinkmanship with Putin, as he has already put his nuclear forces on high alert. Nobody is really certain what kind of failsafes exist on the Russian side to prevent an accidental nuclear war. And a nuclear war with Russia is a true existential threat for the human race. So far, the war in Ukraine has not escalated to that point, but we are inching closer to the brink. The right way to handle Putin is to continue doing what we have been doing--providing Ukraine with defensive equipment and assistance in resisting and pushing back the invading force. So far, Russia has simply sent its ground equipment into a graveyard for armored vehicles. What Ukraine really needs now is help with air defenses, since Russia is now resorting to cowardly bombardment from a distance.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Tigers!]

The Brits need to bring themselves into the modern democratic era and get rid of a king and queen,.

Watching the 3-ringed circus that is your presidential system from afar, I'll stick with the Queen thank you.

 

[bilby]

The Brits need to bring themselves into the modern democratic era and get rid of a king and queen,.

Watching the 3-ringed circus that is your presidential system from afar, I'll stick with the Queen thank you.

Monarchy is pretty medieval, but the British version is mostly harmless. Chop off one king's head, depose another in a religious sectarian coup d'êtat Glorious Revolution, and then steadily erode their soft power for a few centuries, and you could almost forget that they're unjustifiably influential and parasitic on society.

At least they can't have people killed on a whim anymore, so I guess we can be grateful for that.

 

[Politesse]

The Brits need to bring themselves into the modern democratic era and get rid of a king and queen,.

Watching the 3-ringed circus that is your presidential system from afar, I'll stick with the Queen thank you.

Clearly you have never read a British tabloid.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Tigers!]

The Brits need to bring themselves into the modern democratic era and get rid of a king and queen,.

Watching the 3-ringed circus that is your presidential system from afar, I'll stick with the Queen thank you.

Clearly you have never read a British tabloid.

(I suspect I am more familiar with British tabloids than you are.)

 

[Politesse]

The Brits need to bring themselves into the modern democratic era and get rid of a king and queen,.

Watching the 3-ringed circus that is your presidential system from afar, I'll stick with the Queen thank you.

Clearly you have never read a British tabloid.

(I suspect I am more familiar with British tabloids than you are.)

Is it more than, like, three?

Those royals get up to some crazy shit.

 

[lpetrich]

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter: "️Mariupol City Council: Russia uses mobile crematoriums to erase evidence of its war crimes.

According to the council, Russia’s special brigades collect and burn the bodies of murdered residents. Tens of thousands of civilians may have been killed in Mariupol, it added." / Twitter
No independent confirmation, however, but it does seem in character with what the Russian occupiers have been doing so far.

Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) / Twitter is good at keeping up to date about who controls what territory.

Russian troops are now gone from everywhere north of the Kyiv-Kharkiv line, except around Kharkiv itself. Those troops are in a strip that is roughly Kharkiv - Luhansk - Donetsk - Mariupol - Melitopol - Kherson, a strip on the E and S borders of Ukraine.

Russian troops are currently pressing southward from Izyum, halfway between Kharkiv and Donetsk, and I can only guess where Ukrainians are going to try to attack next. My first thought is to try to rescue Kharkiv by clearing Russians from nearby.

 

[lpetrich]

UN General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council | | UN News - at the United Nations site
noting from the UN's Twitter feed,
UN News on Twitter: "URGENT
The UN General Assembly votes to suspend Russia's membership in the UN Human Rights Council
@UN_HRC
In favor: 93
Abstained: 58
Against: 24
(pic link)" / Twitter

Against: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Congo, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe

Absent: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Rwanda, Sao Tome & Principe, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Zambia

So of the ex-USSR nations,

• For: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia
• Absent: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan
• Against: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan

The nations that abstained from voting were Latin American, African, Middle Eastern, South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Oceanian, though some of them voted otherwise, both for and against.

The vote took place on the anniversary of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, and the Ukrainian ambassador drew parallels with this dark page in recent history.

“The genocide in Rwanda was largely due to the indifference of the world’s community, when the UN did not respond to warnings in the UN Security Council and in the General Assembly, a year before the tragedy that we commemorate exactly on this day,” said Mr. Kyslytsya.

“Today, in the case of Ukraine, it is not even a year, because the tragedy is unfolding right now before our eyes.”

The Russian delegate did not take this verdict very well.

Speaking after the adoption of the resolution, Deputy Permanent Representative Kuzmin, suddenly stated that Russia had already decided that day, to leave the Council before the end of its term.

He claimed the Council was monopolized by a group of States who use it for their short-term aims.

“These States for many years have directly been involved in blatant and massive violations of human rights, or abetted those violations,” he said, speaking through an interpreter.

“In spite of their membership as members of the Council, they are not ready to sacrifice their short-term political and economic interests in favour of true cooperation and stabilizing the human rights situation in certain countries.”

China's UN Ambassador stated that this vote set a "dangerous precedent", a EU delegate praised this "rare decision", and the US ambassador called it “an important and historic moment”.

 

[lpetrich]

Let's see if they can get Russia out of the Security Council, like declare Ukraine the Soviet Union's successor state or else declare the Soviet Union's seat vacant.

Chapter V: The Security Council (Articles 23-32) | United Nations - of the UN Charter. Article 23 specifies which nations are in the Security Council, including its permanent members.

Can the UN Charter be amended, and how many times has this occurred? - Ask DAG!
After noting that the UN Charter can be amended, the article mentioned the five amendments to it, rather small ones, like increasing the size of the Security Council from 11 to 15, and the council's vote threshold from 7 to 9.

Noting
Chapter XVIII: Amendments (Articles 108-109) | United Nations

Amendments to the present Charter shall come into force for all Members of the United Nations when they have been adopted by a vote of two thirds of the members of the General Assembly and ratified in accordance with their respective constitutional processes by two thirds of the Members of the United Nations, including all the permanent members of the Security Council.

 

[lpetrich]

It's not very clear from that text what weight the permanent-member votes have. Can any permanent member veto a charter change? Or can permanent members be overriden by enough other votes?

There's also the question of why the US, Britain, France, the USSR, and the Republic of China as permament members. Those were the winners of WWII, and Britain and France were still big colonial powers.

But Britain and France aren't what they used to be.

Could Britain justify permanent UN Security Council seat after Brexit? | Al Arabiya English - 2016

Germany calls for France to give its UN Security Council seat to the EU - 2018