How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine and occupy it. They can however mercilessly destroy much of Ukraiane. A campaign of terror and genocide. Russia would get only a desolate wastelend. If I was Ukraine, I would set up a sreaming platform, and document these horrors 24/7. Let the world see what Russia is all about. Even Russians would be horrified.

That's more or less what Ukraine is already doing. By stroke of luck, the current Ukrainian leaders are former TV producers. They know how to make a good show.

The problem is that Russia can block all the news it doesn't like and threaten anyone who even speaks about the war crimes with prison sentences. And rest of the world is getting desensitized and bored already.

Like the good German cirizens that were forced to tour the Nazi death camps. And help quell the fatigue of arming and helpin Ukraine Putie will be counting on.

 

[steve_bank]

Russia is looking like the latter days of the Rmman Empire in some ways.

Incompetent emperors. The quality of military leadership and the soldiers declined. They faced organized determined adversaries. Their traditional Roman military tactics did not work.

 

[marc]

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

but somehow their planes and helicopters are still getting shot down regularly.

No, not regularly, in fact I have not heard such a thing for a few months now.
Of course your lying piece of shit media is still stuck in February.

Not regularly as of late because Russia has learned its lesson. Fly over Ukraine, get shot down. Russia has stopped sending as many flying targets for Ukraine's stinger anti-aircraft teams

 

[bilby]

What could be funnier than Mister “There will be no invasion” complaining about “western media” being full of shit?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If Ukraine can get any land back, Kherson is probably the most likely place it'll happen. Ukraine has been able to constrain Russian logistics by damaging the three bridges over the Dnipro river, and Russia hasn't yet finished the replacement pontoon bridge. But Russia has multiple barges, plenty of troops and equipment already on the right bank of the river, and the upcoming pontoon bridge is partly shielded by the actual Antonivskyi bridge and maybe harder to disable.

EDIT: If I had to guess, I'd say it's just a political proclamation and Ukraine will not be able to make any progress. At worst, the Ukrainian politicians (including Zelensky) are pushing for the military to advance when they're not ready, which will lead to huge casualties.

The Russian supply lines are severely hampered, both by the bridges and the HIMARS hitting their supply points. Harassing them in the cut-off area will weaken them still further.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine has been able to constrain Russian logistics by damaging the three bridges over the Dnipro river, and Russia hasn't yet finished the replacement pontoon bridge.

Russia were using rail road dam bridge for logistics.
It's much harder to destroy. And people in the know say Ukraine just wasted limited amount of expensive american ammunition, which could have been used more efficiently elsewhere.
In reality, ukrainian regime is more concerned with media coverage, than with millitary sense. That's why they bomb such targets. They need to show something and the only thing they can show are random hits which have no military significance.

Bridges are always prime targets in wartime. There's a reason for that!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Based on satellite fire data, Russian artillery has been reduced by quite a lot since Ukraine started using HIMARS. The hits are not random: they target ammunition dumps, command centers, bridges, railways. Russian logistics has taken a very big hit, but it's not a fatal blow: if you start with 20x artillery advantage and the enemy reduces it by half, you still have a 10x advantage.

If the bridges were not militarily important, why is Russia forced to use barges and build half a mile long pontoon bridge over the river? Why move command centers from Kherson city to the left bank of the river?

Furthermore, Ukraine has to continue to disrupt the bridges. Hitting the same places over and over again is like treading water: you're not getting anywhere but if you stop, you drown. And while the GMLRS ammunition is insanely accurate, Ukraine lacks UAVs and skills to use them for counter-battery fire, so stationary targets are currently the best that they can do.

It doesn't even matter what the ratio of artillery is. Guns without rounds are useless--and the Russian guns are starving.

 

[barbos]

 

[barbos]

and the Russian guns are starving.

According to your talking heads.

 

[barbos]

Bridges are always prime targets in wartime. There's a reason for that!

Captain Obvious, is that you?
Give us more random wisdom.

 

[barbos]

but somehow their planes and helicopters are still getting shot down regularly.

No, not regularly, in fact I have not heard such a thing for a few months now.
Of course your lying piece of shit media is still stuck in February.

Not regularly as of late because Russia has learned its lesson. Fly over Ukraine, get shot down. Russia has stopped sending as many flying targets for Ukraine's stinger anti-aircraft teams

Yes, if you are flying helicopter and criminal western governments supply portable air defense systems. Having said that, Russia does fly jet fighters over Ukraine hunting down what Ukraine still has. They are flying higher than range of the crap you send these overdosed terrorists.

 

[barbos]

For very mild values of "crippling". Fuel is a bit more expensive and Germans probably have to wear sweaters next winter. The real risk is that people might be stupid enough to vote in useful idiots who think appeasing Russia is going to work again, when it didn't work in 2014.

Russia will never tolerate Nazi controlled Ukraine.

I was talking about Europe and US.

Ukraine probably won't have elections until after the war, next round isn't even scheduled until 2024. If Ukraine is still free then, they're not going to give a flying fuck about what Putin wants.

Ukrainian nazi regime does not even give fuck what their own people think, they elected that clown with only one task - to end war in Eastern Ukraine. Instead that drug addict started a war with Russia.

 

[barbos]

The advantage of having free press, unlike Russia, is that even if some media outlet lies, they get called on it.

In theory. In practice all "free" press is owned by some very interesting corporations.
Moreover, there is a revolving door between media and government.
So you don't really have a free press when it comes to mainstream media.
All you have are poor dissidents who, to be fair, are in much better shape than they would have been in Russia. This is true. But in the end, the average Joe is listening to CNN/FoxNews lies and believes it.

 

[fromderinside]

I didn't see, nor did Russia provide, any evidence of Ukrainians, or anybody else, sitting at those long tables from which Putin announced his "Special Operation".

 

[fromderinside]

The advantage of having free press, unlike Russia, is that even if some media outlet lies, they get called on it.

In theory. In practice all "free" press is owned by some very interesting corporations.
Moreover, there is a revolving door between media and government.
So you don't really have a free press when it comes to mainstream media.
All you have are poor dissidents who, to be fair, are in much better shape than they would have been in Russia. This is true. But in the end, the average Joe is listening to CNN/FoxNews lies and believes it.

Its a matter of being able to express beliefs sir.

Why do Russian press people keep getting thrown into prison for speaking other than what Putin demands while American press people who write negative things about the US stay at their posts?

Just sayin'

 

[Patooka]

I'm still trying to imagine a world where FOX, CNN and the BBC knowingly, willingly and actively collude with each other to prop up some multi-national government conspiracy to help nazis.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

[Duplicate copy removed]

but somehow their planes and helicopters are still getting shot down regularly.

No, not regularly, in fact I have not heard such a thing for a few months now.
Of course your lying piece of shit media is still stuck in February.

Not regularly as of late because Russia has learned its lesson. Fly over Ukraine, get shot down. Russia has stopped sending as many flying targets for Ukraine's stinger anti-aircraft teams

Yes, if you are flying helicopter and criminal western governments supply portable air defense systems. Having said that, Russia does fly jet fighters over Ukraine hunting down what Ukraine still has. They are flying higher than range of the crap you send these overdosed terrorists.

The U.S. is now in the process of getting Ukraine NAMRAMs anti-air raft systems. Russia will no longer be able to fly the unfriendly skies of Ukraine. These will allow Ukraine to locate and shoot down Russian aircraft at ranges up to 70 kms away.

 

[zorq]

Ukrainian nazi regime does not even give fuck what their own people think, they elected that clown with only one task - to end war in Eastern Ukraine. Instead that drug addict started a war with Russia.

Putin just wants to steal land from Ukraine.

Putin doesn't care about "Ukranian Nazis." When he sent his thugs to Crimea in 2014, there was no mention of Nazis. Only stealing land. When he sent his thugs to the Donbas in 2014, there was no mention of Nazis, because he knew he was trespassing evil murdering criminal and had to keep it secret. Oh, and because he wanted to pull a move like he did in Georgia in the Donbas in order to ... wait for it ... steal more land. Putin isn't a WW2 Nazi hunter, he's a dirty fucking thief. If anyone is the fucking NAZI in this scenario it is clearly Putin.

Only brain-damaged fucking Russian whores who have already drunk too so much of uncle Vlad's fetid semen (propaganda) from his flacid infested cock (propaganda ministry) No sensible people believe that this unprovoked war of aggression has anything whatsoever to do with "Ukranian Nazis." Why does that disgusting cocktail of lies taste so good to them, I wonder?

And it takes a truly deranged fool non-critical thinker to believe that Ukraine started the war. Are we to believe that a grocery store is really to blame when a robber breaks in, kills the cashier and demands all the money in the safe? No. We don't arrest the owner of the grocery store when an perverse asshole steals their money because we aren't deranged fucking psychopaths. Someone would have to shoot a bullet through my head to make me fucking stupid enough to think for a second that this war was started by Ukraine. But then, I don't have uncle Vlad's flacid cock hanging out of my mouth am careful with my sources.

 

[Jayjay]

If Ukraine can get any land back, Kherson is probably the most likely place it'll happen. Ukraine has been able to constrain Russian logistics by damaging the three bridges over the Dnipro river, and Russia hasn't yet finished the replacement pontoon bridge. But Russia has multiple barges, plenty of troops and equipment already on the right bank of the river, and the upcoming pontoon bridge is partly shielded by the actual Antonivskyi bridge and maybe harder to disable.

EDIT: If I had to guess, I'd say it's just a political proclamation and Ukraine will not be able to make any progress. At worst, the Ukrainian politicians (including Zelensky) are pushing for the military to advance when they're not ready, which will lead to huge casualties.

The Russian supply lines are severely hampered, both by the bridges and the HIMARS hitting their supply points. Harassing them in the cut-off area will weaken them still further.

I have my doubts whether it's enough.

Looks like Ukraine hit either the (unfinished) pontoon bridge or one of the ferries yesterday:



(Note that "Igor Girkin" in twitter isn't the actual Igor Girkin.)