How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

The New Statesman World on Twitter: "Why are China and India sending troops to Russia? @katiestallard explains (link)" / Twitter
noting
Why China and India are sending troops to Russia - New Statesman (paywalled)

Then a Twitter thread. Russia is holding military exercises in the Russian Far East, and China, India, Mongolia, Belarus, Tajikistan, and others have sent some delegations there.

Both Beijing and New Delhi rely on arms sales from Russia, including advanced weapons systems and fighter jets, and both also import Russian oil.

In fact, since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia to become India’s second-largest supplier of oil.

China’s relationship with Russia goes much further, with Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping sharing a “best and bosom” friendship.

However, there are clear limits to the relationship.

Like China avoiding sending Russia any military assistance.

 

[Jayjay]

WithUkraine 24/7 on Twitter: " On September 4, the national flag flew in liberated Vysokopillya in #Kherson Oblast - Deputy Head of the Office of the President of #Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko.
This village had been under occupation for about six months. (pic link)" / Twitter

Showing a soldier putting a Ukrainian flag on some utility pole on top of some building.

Like  Raising the Flag on Iwo Jima - a famous picture from WWII of some soldiers raising a US flag on a mountain in that island.

Or  Raising a Flag over the Reichstag - another one from WWII of a soldier raising a Soviet flag on the Reichstag building in Berlin.

I think those comparisons are a bit overboard. Vysokopillya is a small town, not Berlin or Iwo Jima. But it's nice to see Ukraine have even a small victory.

To put propaganda into perspective, the town was alleged to be surrounded by Ukraine almost two months ago:

More than 1,000 Russian troops encircled by Ukrainian Forces in Kherson region

During the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces encircled three battalion tactical groups of the Russian Army, including a special forces (VDV) company and a tank company. Up to 2,000 Russian troops are in the operational encirclement near the village of...

uawire.org

I think this is bullshit.

The fighting is still going on and Ukraine doesn't really control the surrounding territory. But it would be nice if it turns out to be true.

I suspect most Russians got out.

 

[bilby]

I think those comparisons are a bit overboard. Vysokopillya is a small town, not Berlin or Iwo Jima.

Berlin is the outlier here. Vysokopillya and Iwo Jima were both places that were so unimportant, even some of the folks who actually lived there had never heard of them*, until someone took a picture of soldiers raising a flag.





*OK, that's hyperbole. But I doubt anyone here knows of any events on Iwo Jima, off the top of their head, that pre-date WWII.

I consider myself fairly well read, but I don't know anything about pre-War Iwo Jima at all.

 

[Jayjay]

I think those comparisons are a bit overboard. Vysokopillya is a small town, not Berlin or Iwo Jima.

Berlin is the outlier here. Vysokopillya and Iwo Jima were both places that were so unimportant, even some of the folks who actually lived there had never heard of them*, until someone took a picture of soldiers raising a flag.

Wasn't Iwo Jima some sort of important air base that had given US navy a lot of grief? Not just some place nobody ever heard about.

A better Ukrainian equivalent of Iwo Jima is Snake Island.

 

[bilby]

I think those comparisons are a bit overboard. Vysokopillya is a small town, not Berlin or Iwo Jima.

Berlin is the outlier here. Vysokopillya and Iwo Jima were both places that were so unimportant, even some of the folks who actually lived there had never heard of them*, until someone took a picture of soldiers raising a flag.

Wasn't Iwo Jima some sort of important air base that had given US navy a lot of grief? Not just some place nobody ever heard about.

A better Ukrainian equivalent of Iwo Jima is Snake Island.

Iwo Jima was a fly-speck island a thousand miles from mainland Japan, with a population of about 1,000, and a small naval station of little importance, until WWII.

It became strategically important only because it happened to be in the way of the US Navy advance on the Japanese home islands. Like a lot of previously obscure and unimportant islands in the region, both sides wanted it for airfields, and both sides wanted to deny it to their enemy.

It wasn't a very important outpost of the Japanese Navy until well into 1943.

Snake Island is, likewise, a nowhere place of little interest or importance, other than as a marker of the maritime border between the USSR and Romania; It is strategically (and politically) important in the current Ukraine-Russia war, but wasn't a significant location before the outbreak of hostilities.

Snake Island wasn't even inhabited until 2007, and the settlement then was entirely aimed at establishing the position of maritime borders, rather than because the island had any particular attraction as a place to live.

Both islands were just some place nobody ever heard about.

The same isn't really true of Berlin.

 

[Jayjay]

I think those comparisons are a bit overboard. Vysokopillya is a small town, not Berlin or Iwo Jima.

Berlin is the outlier here. Vysokopillya and Iwo Jima were both places that were so unimportant, even some of the folks who actually lived there had never heard of them*, until someone took a picture of soldiers raising a flag.

Wasn't Iwo Jima some sort of important air base that had given US navy a lot of grief? Not just some place nobody ever heard about.

A better Ukrainian equivalent of Iwo Jima is Snake Island.

Iwo Jima was a fly-speck island a thousand miles from mainland Japan, with a population of about 1,000, and a small naval station of little importance, until WWII.

It became strategically important only because it happened to be in the way of the US Navy advance on the Japanese home islands. Like a lot of previously obscure and unimportant islands in the region, both sides wanted it for airfields, and both sides wanted to deny it to their enemy.

It wasn't a very important outpost of the Japanese Navy until well into 1943.

Snake Island is, likewise, a nowhere place of little interest or importance, other than as a marker of the maritime border between the USSR and Romania; It is strategically (and politically) important in the current Ukraine-Russia war, but wasn't a significant location before the outbreak of hostilities.

Snake Island wasn't even inhabited until 2007, and the settlement then was entirely aimed at establishing the position of maritime borders, rather than because the island had any particular attraction as a place to live.

Both islands were just some place nobody ever heard about.

That was my point. A spec of land in a right place at the right time can become important.

But the village of Vysokopillya is unimportant both strategically (unlike Iwo Jima / Snake Island), and politically (Berlin). It's just another village among hundreds. Only thing that makes it special is that Ukraine managed to win it back, which is rare.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I think those comparisons are a bit overboard. Vysokopillya is a small town, not Berlin or Iwo Jima.

Berlin is the outlier here. Vysokopillya and Iwo Jima were both places that were so unimportant, even some of the folks who actually lived there had never heard of them*, until someone took a picture of soldiers raising a flag.

Wasn't Iwo Jima some sort of important air base that had given US navy a lot of grief? Not just some place nobody ever heard about.

A better Ukrainian equivalent of Iwo Jima is Snake Island.

The islands incluing Iwo Jima were an important base for Japanese military radio communications. Relaying communications to bases in the Pacific.

 

[steve_bank]

For the Japanese Iwo JIma was a tunneled fortress rock. A comparison might be the Japanese fought to the death and Ukrainians are in the same frame of mind.

Strategicay for the USA it was an airfield for land based bombers.

With cruise missiles and anti ship missiles and long range bombers a small island is of little value. It is symbolic.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine's armed forces poised to 'bag a bunch' of Putin's 'stupid, drunk and brutal' soldiers: military expert

Appearing on MSNBC on Labor Day afternoon, retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "in a box" and on the verge of suffering a humiliating defeat in Ukraine due to the unsuitability of the military forces he has been sending to prop up his invasion of the...

www.rawstory.com

"This is pretty surprising. tactically," McCaffrey replied. "They have been stupid, drunk, brutal, out-of- control, low morale, bad leadership, bad operational directive and right now in the Kherson area, a better part of 15,000 Russians are stuck north and west of the Dnieper River, and Ukrainians are going to try and take them apart, deliberately, piece by piece."
"They have conducted over 400 artillery strikes over 40 air sorties, that have blown up a lot of ammunition and hit a lot of their command and control. They're doing partisan and special operation attacks deep in the Russian zone," he elaborated. "It is astonishing to me."

 

[TV and credit cards]

Putin's New 3rd Army Corps Suffers Setbacks, Equipment Not Ready: Kyiv

Ukrainian intelligence official Vadym Skibitskyi said Russia faced problems with training its personnel in the 3rd Army Corps.

www.newsweek.com

Ukraine's armed forces poised to 'bag a bunch' of Putin's 'stupid, drunk and brutal' soldiers: military expert

Appearing on MSNBC on Labor Day afternoon, retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "in a box" and on the verge of suffering a humiliating defeat in Ukraine due to the unsuitability of the military forces he has been sending to prop up his invasion of the...

www.rawstory.com

"This is pretty surprising. tactically," McCaffrey replied. "They have been stupid, drunk, brutal, out-of- control, low morale, bad leadership, bad operational directive and right now in the Kherson area, a better part of 15,000 Russians are stuck north and west of the Dnieper River, and Ukrainians are going to try and take them apart, deliberately, piece by piece."
"They have conducted over 400 artillery strikes over 40 air sorties, that have blown up a lot of ammunition and hit a lot of their command and control. They're doing partisan and special operation attacks deep in the Russian zone," he elaborated. "It is astonishing to me."

Trying to piece together an effective fighting force made of the worst society has to offer and they can't even mange to arm them. I think they are there to terrorize the civilian population and if they make it back, they get paid.
Word should be put out, if this scum of the earth is found amongst the civilian population, they will not be taken prisoner. Suspected summary executions will not be investigated.

 

[steve_bank]

Sounds plausible. On paper Kiev should have been quickly occupied.

I suspect both Trump and Putin think they know better than the military leadership.

Ukraine is undoubtedly getting intelligence from the US and Brits. I doubt Russia can do anything that the Ukrainians are not aware of.

That they are operating behind Russian lines is likely. There is probably much that neither Russia nor Ukraine is reporting. The idea that the Ukrainians are roaming around hem affects Russian morale. Psychological warfare.

On the initial run on Kiev the Ukrainians did hit and run on the Russian unprotected flanks. They changed road signs. Tanks were abandoned on the retreat.

I read that Eisenhower's iconic optimistic smiling face was practiced. He knew any hint of pessimism could spread and destroy morale.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "In Kherson have retaken Blahodativka, Vysokopillya, and Lyubymivka. (pic link)" / Twitter

Vysokopillya is at the northern end of the occupied part of the west bank of the Dnipro River.

The Ukrainians have pushed inward a little at nearby Lyubymivka and farther at Blahodativka, halfway to Kherson.

 

[Patooka]

Boris Johnson Kherson counter-offensive is not going so well, is it?

I missed this, but quoted for hilarity.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Sounds plausible. On paper Kiev should have been quickly occupied.

I suspect both Trump and Putin think they know better than the military leadership.

Ukraine is undoubtedly getting intelligence from the US and Brits. I doubt Russia can do anything that the Ukrainians are not aware of.

That they are operating behind Russian lines is likely. There is probably much that neither Russia nor Ukraine is reporting. The idea that the Ukrainians are roaming around hem affects Russian morale. Psychological warfare.

On the initial run on Kiev the Ukrainians did hit and run on the Russian unprotected flanks. They changed road signs. Tanks were abandoned on the retreat.

I read that Eisenhower's iconic optimistic smiling face was practiced. He knew any hint of pessimism could spread and destroy morale.

One of Eisenhower's great strengths was handling personal conflicts among various generals. He did this very well and managed severe disgreements well.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Boris Johnson Kherson counter-offensive is not going so well, is it?

I missed this, but quoted for hilarity.

I think that it's going to be quite a shock for Russians when Kherson falls to the home team!

 

[steve_bank]

Sounds plausible. On paper Kiev should have been quickly occupied.

I suspect both Trump and Putin think they know better than the military leadership.

Ukraine is undoubtedly getting intelligence from the US and Brits. I doubt Russia can do anything that the Ukrainians are not aware of.

That they are operating behind Russian lines is likely. There is probably much that neither Russia nor Ukraine is reporting. The idea that the Ukrainians are roaming around hem affects Russian morale. Psychological warfare.

On the initial run on Kiev the Ukrainians did hit and run on the Russian unprotected flanks. They changed road signs. Tanks were abandoned on the retreat.

I read that Eisenhower's iconic optimistic smiling face was practiced. He knew any hint of pessimism could spread and destroy morale.

One of Eisenhower's great strengths was handling personal conflicts among various generals. He did this very well and managed severe disgreements well.

His management skill can not be overstated. Churchill was not a great military leader, but kept morale high at the lowest darkest moments.

If Ukraine pulls through Zelenskyy will at the top.

.

 

[Patooka]

Boris Johnson Kherson counter-offensive is not going so well, is it?

I missed this, but quoted for hilarity.

I think that it's going to be quite a shock for Russians when Kherson falls to the home team!

I'm even more confused as to what the fuck BoJo had to do with it.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

From Business Insider.

Ukranian hackers have been setting up fake social accounts, pretending to be beautiful young Russian women. They get lonely and stupid Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine to interact with them. And eventually get them to post pictures. Geodata gives away the ccordinates of their bases. Boom!

 

[TV and credit cards]

From Business Insider.

Ukranian hackers have been setting up fake social accounts, pretending to be beautiful young Russian women. They get lonely and stupid Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine to interact with them. And eventually get them to post pictures. Geodata gives away the ccordinates of their bases. Boom!

She's da bomb.

 

[lpetrich]

Wikipedia has a big article on  Sexpionage - catfishing for espionage