How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Pretty good summary on Al Jazeera

I like the “Drinking the Kool-Aid” section at the end. Sounds like the Kremlin is pulling back on the propaganda, trying to take the public eye off the war. I had read earlier of their telling their military bloggers to tamp down on the negative reporting. Also Putin praising pro-Russian DRP and LDR forces while admonishing the poor performance of Russian troops sounds like he is trying to inspire DRP/LDR and may be relaying they might be on their own soon. It all hints of Putin trying to back out of this impossible situation. Perhaps I’m overreaching.

Ukraine has taken the initiative on all fronts and Russia simply does not have the troops to hold their ground.

 

[lpetrich]

Looking in Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) / Twitter I find not only the attacks near Kherson, but also one where Ukrainian forces have penetrated into Russian-controlled territory southeast of Kharkiv.

 

[Jayjay]

It seems like Russia sent all its forces to reinforce Kherson, and attack near Donetsk city, and left the Kharkiv and northern Donbas manned by skeleton crews. Ukraine took advantage of that and is now threatening Russian supply lines in Kupiansk.

Now Putin will have to scramble to send some troops to defend Kupiansk, which will be away from other fronts.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yes, it looks like Ukrainian forces are able to hold their own/make incremental advances in the South and East while exploiting the lack of Russian troops in the Kharkiv area.

Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing approximately 400 square kilometers of ground. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops began deploying reinforcements to the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping in this area was likely understrength due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and support the southern axis. Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Kherson Oblast have forced Russian forces to shift their focus to the south, enabling Ukrainian forces to launch localized but highly effective counterattacks in the Izyum area. Russian milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory. These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains, and claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort. The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces. While it is unlikely that the southern counteroffensive and effort to attrit Russian forces in southern Ukraine is a feint for renewed operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces likely took prudent advantage of a reallocation of Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives toward critical points in Kharkiv Oblast.

If Russia does not have or will not commit the manpower and or equipment to reinforce their efforts, they will have to contract yet once again likely giving up on Kharkiv.

 

[Jayjay]

If Russia does not have or will not commit the manpower and or equipment to reinforce their efforts, they will have to contract yet once again likely giving up on Kharkiv.

I think Russia will double down and can repel the Ukrainian advance.

 

[steve_bank]

The VN war comes to mind.

The leaked Pentagon Papers showed that by 1967 0r 68 the military leadership in DC knew there was no military solution. Yet we herad from the militarily leaders publicly in VN we just need a some more troops and we will win. Westmoreland.

We are killing more of them them they are killing us therefore we are winning.

Schwarzkopf talked about hs eerince in VN in his bio. A general level of incompetence. Same with Chuck Yeaer in his bio. He was fighter group leader in VN.

Nixon came up with 'peace with honor' and Vietnamization. Hand vber the war to the VN military and pull out.

It took a long time for our military to recover.


Officers on the ground undoubtedly know they are in a a bad situation that is not going to change.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russian officials propose overthrowing Putin, charging him with treason

Deputies said they felt the proposal to remove Putin from power has "nearly zero" chances of being heard by the State Duma.

www.newsweek.com

A group of Russian officials has appealled to the state' Duma to remove Putin from power on the charge of high treason, a document shared by one of the Russian deputies who co-signed the proposal reveals

 

[lpetrich]

Treason???

Why not recklessness or incompetence?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Russia does not have or will not commit the manpower and or equipment to reinforce their efforts, they will have to contract yet once again likely giving up on Kharkiv.

I think Russia will double down and can repel the Ukrainian advance.

Just like we doubled down in Nam, repeatedly, and made gains every time. Long term, however, none of that was ever a permanent solution. Russian proxies operating in occupied areas are being assassinated. There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine anymore than they could in Afghanistan or we could in Nam unless Orange Goon is reelected, in which case he'll probably send military aid to Putin.

 

[Oleg]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

If Russia does not have or will not commit the manpower and or equipment to reinforce their efforts, they will have to contract yet once again likely giving up on Kharkiv.

I think Russia will double down and can repel the Ukrainian advance.

Just like we doubled down in Nam, repeatedly, and made gains every time. Long term, however, none of that was ever a permanent solution. Russian proxies operating in occupied areas are being assassinated. There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine anymore than they could in Afghanistan or we could in Nam unless Orange Goon is reelected, in which case he'll probably send military aid to Putin.

Yup. It looks like Russia is forced to play whack a mole with Ukraine... they can pull troops in one place and with great cost stop Ukrainian advances, only to be hit in another flank. Eventually it will wear Russia out, if only the west can keep Ukraine resupplied with weapons and training.

Russia does have some cards it has not played yet, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for Ukraine. It looks a lot brighter than it did two or three months ago.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Reports are coming in the Russia is beginning to learn their lessons. Roaring in with tanks and no infantry support does not work. But they still have isues with low quality infantry. Using elite troops as a spearhead has merely resulted in their slaughter. Raining destruction to destroy Ukraine's willingness to fight does not work. But they have little else.

 

[Jayjay]

Treason???

Why not recklessness or incompetence?

Do you think recklessness or incompetence are crimes in Russia?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Meanwhile, Russia's new Iranian drones seem to be having technical difficulties. And the U.S. is sending Ukraine Vampire anti-drone systems.

 

[Elixir]

Treason???

Why not recklessness or incompetence?

Do you think recklessness or incompetence are crimes in Russia?

That would be a meaningless distinction. If Putler doesn’t like what you do or say he can have you locked up or eliminated. He has made sure his subjects all know it, too.

 

[Jayjay]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

I think part of the reason why Putin started the war in Donbas at the same time was to draw attention away from Crimea, like a lightning rod.

 

[Elixir]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

Why? Sending a bunch of hapless serfs to occupy an area while you exterminate the previous population doesn’t entitle Putler to ANYTHING.

 

[Jayjay]

Meanwhile, Russia's new Iranian drones seem to be having technical difficulties. And the U.S. is sending Ukraine Vampire anti-drone systems.

Hope they don't get that order mixed up and accidentally send drones equipped with wooden stakes and holy water.

 

[Oleg]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

Why? Sending a bunch of hapless serfs to occupy an area while you exterminate the previous population doesn’t entitle Putler to ANYTHING.

It's about support of the locals.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I don't know if this amounts to a hill of beans but at least they have the courage to speak out. Their grievances read like content right out of the Western news. I'm starting to think Barbos had it all wrong.

Municipal deputies for the Smolninskoye District in St. Petersburg plan to submit a petition to the State Duma (the Russian parliament) to charge Russian president Vladimir Putin with high treason for unleashing the war in Ukraine. Deputy Dmitry Palyuga announced the intention on Twitter.

According to Palyuga, “the majority of deputies in attendance supported the decision.” In conversation with The Insider, he specified that seven out of ten voted in favor of the initiative.

According to its sponsors, Putin’s actions since the beginning of the “special military operation” fall under Article 93 of the Russian Constitution, which stipulates for the president's impeachment based on charges of high treason or other serious crimes brought against them by the State Duma.

The president's decision to attack Ukraine is “detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens”, the petition reads, because the Russian army is losing its fighting-fit units and its servicemen become disabled. The authors of the petition also point out that the withdrawal of foreign players from the Russian market and the “brain drain” accelerated by massive emigration are bound to leave a dent in “the Russian nation's economic wellbeing”. The deputies also underline that NATO is pushing its frontiers eastward, contrary to the announced goals of the special operation, while Ukraine is receiving state-of-the-art weapons.

“While the Russian president declared the demilitarization of Ukraine as one of his goals, we are witnessing the opposite happen. This is not to say that we stand in full support of the goals declared by President Putin, but even in his own terms, he is harming Russia's national security,” Palyuga explained to The Insider. “We want to let people know that there are deputies who are opposed to the current policy and who believe that Putin is harming Russia. We also want to let them know we are not afraid to speak out.”