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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

lpetrich said:
Harry Bosch said:
Oleg said:
Future generations are gonna call him Vladimir the Green.

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Europe was foolish to rely on an imperialist rogue state for its critical energy needs.
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That's a problem with oil. It corrupts the politics of its producers. It's the resource curse - oil and democracy don't mix very well.
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25 years ago, with fracking, Texas started getting vast amounts of natural gas. And a number of companies started setting up liquified natural gas projects. Texas is now exporting large quantities of gas to Europe. Europe's present problem is near capacity storage. As that gets used over winter, more LNG is coming from Texas. Over the next decade we will probably see more LNG storage built in Europe, more LNG tankers built and big pushes for alternative energy sources.

Russia will lose eventually. They are not reliable.
 
lpetrich said:
Harry Bosch said:
Oleg said:
Future generations are gonna call him Vladimir the Green.

Click to expand...
Europe was foolish to rely on an imperialist rogue state for its critical energy needs.
Click to expand...
That's a problem with oil. It corrupts the politics of its producers. It's the resource curse - oil and democracy don't mix very well.
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And it's not just oil. It's the parts and precision machine equipment the West has sold to Russia over the years that has enabled it to make these weapons of war.
 
lpetrich said:
Harry Bosch said:
Oleg said:
Future generations are gonna call him Vladimir the Green.

Click to expand...
Europe was foolish to rely on an imperialist rogue state for its critical energy needs.
Click to expand...
That's a problem with oil. It corrupts the politics of its producers. It's the resource curse - oil and democracy don't mix very well.
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Oil is not the problem of itself. It is our attitude to it that is the problem.

To paraphrase an old quote
"Love of oil is the root of all sorts of evil"
 
And electronics. Like everybody else, Russia relies on Taiwan. But Taiwan has now passed a law outlawing any digital chips to Russia over 25 mhz. The speed of an 80's Intel 386 SX chip.
 
Oh my sides.

markets.businessinsider.com

China's top energy firms are sending natural gas to European nations struggling with Russia's supply cuts

China's largest energy groups are shipping liquefied natural gas to crisis-ridden Europe as Moscow cuts the tap on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com

Last year, China was the world's biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas. However, Beijing's stringent COVID-19 lockdowns have resulted in 20% lower demand this year.

Meanwhile, Russia's Gazprom said Tuesday it plans to sell gas to China in both rubles and yuanto shift away from the euro.

The Kremlin's state-run gas giant said the payments would take effect immediately.
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ZiprHead said:
TV and credit cards said:
Zelinskyy is planning some announcement tonight regarding Kharkiv.

U.S. says Russia buying North Korea shells and rockets for Ukraine war
They'll be shooting these shells out of guns who's barrels are worn to the point of exploding.
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Does this mean they are running out of their own?
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It would suggest they are. But there is also the issue of barrel wear. Indications are Russia will be seriously depleted of replacements by the end of the year.

This story predates the likely North Korean purchase:
From The Insider
Not the first time I’ve read comment to this effect.
Besides the shells, there is also the problem of wear and tear of barrels. While the guides on multiple launch rocket systems have a long service life if properly maintained, the barrels of rifled artillery guns, as well as tank guns, wear out much faster. For example, Russian tank barrels have a service life from 210 rounds of armor-piercing sub-caliber rounds to 840 rounds of high explosive and shaped charge rounds. At the same time, rifled artillery barrels, depending on caliber, projectile type and range, have a life of up to 2,000-3,000 rounds. For comparison, some of the German PzH2000 self-propelled howitzers supplied to Ukraine were out of action after a month of use at an intensity of 100 rounds per day per gun.

And even if we assume that Russian soldiers do not neglect maintenance procedures for barrels and other gun mechanisms, and that Russia has an unknown, but not an infinite, number of them in reserve (especially on guns from storage depots), by the end of 2022 wear and tear of artillery will lead to a drastic reduction in its effectiveness. In addition, the Russian military itself cautiously pointed out problems with the survivability of artillery pieces as early as 2020, as well as insufficient efficiency of the field maintenance and repair system for artillery pieces.
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The story goes on and brings attention to the fact Russia is using S-300 and S-400 anti air missiles to hit ground targets. Another indication they are running short of the right tool for the right job.
If we see the Russians rolling out the trebuchets, we’ll know something is definitely up.
 
Here's an interesting description by Russian occupiers about life in Kherson:

In the city of Kherson itself, you feel like an English officer in a newly captured India. Local residents consider us occupiers, although, unfortunately, we do not show any signs of occupation, but I think it would be worth it.

The local population on the streets mostly thumps and begs. Beggars in Kherson are not only homeless people and marginal alcoholics living on the streets but also completely ordinary people. Middle-class kids find it normal to walk up and ask a passerby for ice cream. The locals lack courtesy and a culture of communication, they simply ask “Give”, without using the word “please”.
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At the same time, there are employment centers in Kherson, there is enough work, but people simply do not want to do anything. Russia’s position is to pay pensions in rubles, to give benefits and all sorts of bonuses, but, unfortunately, this does not in any way stimulate the recovery of the region’s economy. Instead, we just feed the freeloaders who think they are owed everything.

In Kherson there is water, gas, electricity, communications, almost complete security, the shops have absolutely all the goods from the assortment of Russian supermarkets. Medicine with the advent of Russia became free, Russian pensions are almost four times higher than Ukrainian ones. How do Kherson crests react to this? Hatred. Undisguised public hatred.
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In the early morning of August 24, I was drinking coffee in the square and heard the janitor shouting “Alena, Mashaa! Happy holiday!”. The locals are not shy of calling people in camouflage or Z T-shirts “Fucking Orcs”, in the supermarket in response to my phrase “I beg your pardon” (I asked to let me through to the window) a local sow with a hohol child responds with a haughty look at the camouflage and the phrase “Yes, beg for forgiveness.”

The impunity of such behavior is the cornerstone problem of Kherson’s integration.

Kherson hohols are cowardly, so they don’t take any special actions, mainly fighting with the help of Ukrainian graffiti and whining on social networks, but there are enough sabotage groups in the city and every week they blow up the cars of Russians. We had to remove reg plates from our car and check underneath it every hour, walking in the city alone is strictly not recommended. An open pro-Russian stance in Kherson today requires either real courage or desperate recklessness, most of the people who support Russia simply do not express their views in public, fearing censure or violence from their fellow countrymen.
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The report ends with calls for harsher and more draconian Russification measures, such as criminalizing Ukrainian language, art, graffiti, currency, and music. It's clear that very few people in Kherson ever wanted to live under Russian rule.
 



Retired four-star U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey said Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has his country stuck "in a box" against Ukraine as the war intensifies on the Dnieper River, and strategies seem to be dwindling.

An underwater mine clearance team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine prepares to deactivate an explosive object found in the Dnieper River in the town of Cherkasy on August 19, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
An underwater mine clearance team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine prepares to deactivate an explosive object found in the Dnieper River in the town of Cherkasy on August 19, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.© GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images

McCaffrey made the comment during an interview on MSNBC amid unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian officials that Russian soldiers are voluntarily choosing not to engage in combat due to a lack of resources like water. Another report indicated that Russia is recruiting volunteers from a mental health unit in St. Petersburg, offering various incentives like lump-sum payments, compensation for housing and communal services, and educational opportunities in order to encourage military service.
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