How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

In the VN wa we had daily video in the news that influenced opinions.

Sooner or later retrning Russian soldiers will spread what is really going on.

The EU is debating whether to have a blanket ban on Russia visitors or make it selected. The reasonng is Russians traveling on EU visas are working against EU governments, probably true. Poland, Lituania

Also in the news Russia is running out of rockets and missiles and is buying from North Korea.

Russia buying North Korean rockets and artillery, U.S. intelligence says

"This purchase indicates that the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine."

www.axios.com

Russia's Ministry of Defense is buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North orea to aid its war in Ukraine, according to recently downgraded intelligence, a U.S. official confirmed to Axios on Tuesday.

Why it matters: "This purchase indicates that the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions," the U.S. official said.

Poland Joins Baltic Pledge To Ban Most Russians By Late September

Poland and the three Baltic states have announced a "common approach" to ban access to their countries for most Russians with EU visas from later this month, moving all four beyond the curbs recently agreed by all 27 EU members.

www.rferl.org

Poland and the three Baltic states have announced a "common approach" to ban access to their countries for most Russians with EU visas from later this month, moving all four beyond the curbs recently agreed by all 27 EU members.

Russian politicians must see where Russia is heading, isolation.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

Why? Sending a bunch of hapless serfs to occupy an area while you exterminate the previous population doesn’t entitle Putler to ANYTHING.

It's about support of the locals.

Exactly. Those areas where Russia removed locals won't fly with Ukraine. Other areas, possibly, but I wouldn't bank on it at this point. The Putinator is going down. This is his war and he's not well. When he's gone if the Oligarchs have their way everything will go back to original borders, including Crimea.

 

[steve_bank]

In the news this morning. Russia has a long running population and labor problem. Russia uses cheap North Korean labor.

Nobody wants to move to Russia, except maybe Snoden. I hope he found the Russian govt to be less intrusive, just, and transparent than ours.

More than 1 million people, including nearly 200,000 children, have been taken from Ukraine to Russia in the past two months, Russia's Defense Ministry said Monday, according to the state-owned news agency TASS.May 2, 2022

To hell with it. A few NATO air attacks will probably obliterate Russian forces.

What Russia is doing is right upthtere with Emperial Japan and Germany in WII, and post war Stalinism.

 

[Jayjay]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

Why? Sending a bunch of hapless serfs to occupy an area while you exterminate the previous population doesn’t entitle Putler to ANYTHING.

It's about support of the locals.

Russia doesn't have the support of locals anywhere except Crimea. And maybe DNR/LNR, after 8 years of brainwashing and forced Russification.

This video of how Ukrainian soldiers are greeted in Kharkiv region tells volumes what the locals (or those who weren't able to flee) think:

 

[barbos]

A bit of russian propaganda:

 

[Patooka]

A bit of russian propaganda:

At least you're being honest about it being a lie now.

 

[barbos]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

I think part of the reason why Putin started the war in Donbas at the same time was to draw attention away from Crimea, like a lightning rod.

I sometimes wonder what is going on in heads of Europeans.
Seriously, why even think about that?

 

[barbos]

A bit of russian propaganda:

At least you're being honest about it being a lie now.

It's not a lie. Unlike your propaganda, russian one is truthful.

By the way, did you notice Australian accent? These damn russians, are so good, that they started faking austalian accent.

 

[barbos]

In other news, Ikea is getting back to Russia, reversing their March decision to leave Russia, claiming they were not really saying they were leaving.
Coca-Cola is staying as well, just changing the name (to something in russian ) of their poison So much for war on russian language. Speaking of which, these ukrainian refugees in Europe, Europeans were so nice that they started schools for their children, guess what language they use there? Please, guess it.
Hint, that will not make ukro-nazi happy.

You don't understand what's happening--those aren't the same companies. Russia is taking over the facilities and operating them like the originals, but without access to the authentic supply chain.

I understand. It's you who does not understand. Ikea knows that they will get back so they "sell" their facilities with buy back guaranty. It's really just a scam. Nobody wants to leave and some don't even bother to play this game. Some, like Burger King can't leave, because their russian part is pretty much owned by Russian companies.
Even whole pro-western countries are refusing to leave, South Korea is the biggest example. That's gotta hurt
And of course India, who pretty much told US to go pound sand.
Sanctions have failed. And they failed because 3rd World sided with Russia. You only have EU (not all) and Japan-Australia/NZ-Canada. And Japan is not that enthusiastic about it. I suspect they are looking at South Korea.
Ironic part is, US forced EU to shoot themselves in the foot with gas-oil, while buying Russian uranium.
3rd World countries look at Russia and finally see a country which can really stand to a bully which have bullied them for a century. So, no, they are not joining.

 

[barbos]

And electronics. Like everybody else, Russia relies on Taiwan. But Taiwan has now passed a law outlawing any digital chips to Russia over 25 mhz. The speed of an 80's Intel 386 SX chip.

Too fast. Make it a Z80H (8MHz)

Funny eh?
Russia produce 90nm chips. That's 1Ghz stuff. It's for simple stuff like smart-cards and for weapons as well. For the rest Russia has China. And China already has 7nm. Yep, they have their own, unrelated to ASML, 7nm. It's still not open for orders but they have their own 7nm tech which is going to compete with Taiwan very soon.
And don't forget that what Taiwan did was a ban on making chips for Russia. They can't ban chips which are sold as a final product like cellphones.

 

[barbos]

The report ends with calls for harsher and more draconian Russification measures, such as criminalizing Ukrainian language, art, graffiti, currency, and music. It's clear that very few people in Kherson ever wanted to live under Russian rule.

You keep believing everything uikrainian propaganda says, even when they later admit "Yes, we lied"
Ukrainian regime is losing and they have to lie more and more. So they create "reports" which west repeats without checking.

 

[Jayjay]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

I think part of the reason why Putin started the war in Donbas at the same time was to draw attention away from Crimea, like a lightning rod.

I sometimes wonder what is going on in heads of Europeans.
Seriously, why even think about that?

Destabilized Ukrained, mired in a "anti-terrorist operation" e.g. war in Donbas, didn't have resources to do anything about Crimea. Not that Putin didn't have other reasons also, but keeping Ukraine busy in Donbas certainly helped. It's the basic stratagem of "escalate to de-escalate" that Putin has used everywhere.

 

[Jayjay]

The report ends with calls for harsher and more draconian Russification measures, such as criminalizing Ukrainian language, art, graffiti, currency, and music. It's clear that very few people in Kherson ever wanted to live under Russian rule.

You keep believing everything uikrainian propaganda says, even when they later admit "Yes, we lied"

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

Ukrainian regime is losing and they have to lie more and more. So they create "reports" which west repeats without checking.

Did you check the story? If you have information about this being fake, do share. Russian mercs who share it among each other seem to think it's valid.

Link to original Russian text is included in the article, you can use that to start searching:

Russian invader describes the situation in temporarily occupied Kherson • WarTranslated

This document describing the situation in the occupied Kherson was found on Telegram, shared by the neo-nazi group “Rusich” which is taking part in the war in Ukraine. The original can be found here: https://telegra.ph/Strah-i-nenavist-v-Hersone-09-06 The post mentions the contempt of locals...

wartranslated.com

 

[barbos]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?
I have posted a fair number of videos of people in the streets in Kherson region telling their opinion about Ukrainian regime. You really think that you can beat that with some anonymous text on some telegram channel?
Yes, they speak in russian and your media would not show it, let alone translate it.

 

[barbos]

Destabilized Ukrained, mired in a "anti-terrorist operation" e.g. war in Donbas, didn't have resources to do anything about Crimea. Not that Putin didn't have other reasons also, but keeping Ukraine busy in Donbas certainly helped. It's the basic stratagem of "escalate to de-escalate" that Putin has used everywhere.

You are not making any sense.

 

[bilby]

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

How do we know you're not a Ukrainian, pretending to be a hopelessly unbelievable Russian propagandist?

Certainly your contributions to date in this thread have served very effectively to bolster the general feeling that Russia are the baddies.

 

[Ford]

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

How do we know you're not a Ukrainian, pretending to be a hopelessly unbelievable Russian propagandist?

Certainly your contributions to date in this thread have served very effectively to bolster the general feeling that Russia are the baddies.

In addition to being the baddies, Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger. An incompetent, thumbs-up-their-asses paper tiger. Barbos' favorite country was supposed to steamroll over poor little Ukraine in a weekend. Over 6 months later, Russia's once-vaunted military isn't even able to hang onto the gains they made in that first weekend. What was once a prelude to Mother Russia building a new wall on the doorsteps of NATO has turned into a fiasco so bad that Putin needs to arrest anyone who says "hey...this isn't going so well."

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

 

[barbos]

How do we know you're not a Ukrainian, pretending to be a hopelessly unbelievable Russian propagandist?

One more time, we are comparing real people in videos on the streets of eastern Ukraine cities with bots in telegram.

 

[barbos]

Certainly your contributions to date in this thread have served very effectively to bolster the general feeling that Russia are the baddies.

Likewise.