How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Yesterday

I don't know if this amounts to a hill of beans but at least they have the courage to speak out. Their grievances read like content right out of the Western news. I'm starting to think Barbos had it all wrong.

Municipal deputies for the Smolninskoye District in St. Petersburg plan to submit a petition to the State Duma (the Russian parliament) to charge Russian president Vladimir Putin with high treason for unleashing the war in Ukraine. Deputy Dmitry Palyuga announced the intention on Twitter.

According to Palyuga, “the majority of deputies in attendance supported the decision.” In conversation with The Insider, he specified that seven out of ten voted in favor of the initiative.

According to its sponsors, Putin’s actions since the beginning of the “special military operation” fall under Article 93 of the Russian Constitution, which stipulates for the president's impeachment based on charges of high treason or other serious crimes brought against them by the State Duma.

The president's decision to attack Ukraine is “detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens”, the petition reads, because the Russian army is losing its fighting-fit units and its servicemen become disabled. The authors of the petition also point out that the withdrawal of foreign players from the Russian market and the “brain drain” accelerated by massive emigration are bound to leave a dent in “the Russian nation's economic wellbeing”. The deputies also underline that NATO is pushing its frontiers eastward, contrary to the announced goals of the special operation, while Ukraine is receiving state-of-the-art weapons.

“While the Russian president declared the demilitarization of Ukraine as one of his goals, we are witnessing the opposite happen. This is not to say that we stand in full support of the goals declared by President Putin, but even in his own terms, he is harming Russia's national security,” Palyuga explained to The Insider. “We want to let people know that there are deputies who are opposed to the current policy and who believe that Putin is harming Russia. We also want to let them know we are not afraid to speak out.”

Today
Police summons deputies who said Putin should be charged with treason.

Tomorrow
Job openings.

 

[Harry Bosch]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

I think that I'd prefer to leave that up to the Ukrainians to decide. As far as I'm concerned, the Russians have earned zero good will in their favor to deserve zero sympathy.

 

[Jayjay]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?
I have posted a fair number of videos of people in the streets in Kherson region telling their opinion about Ukrainian regime. You really think that you can beat that with some anonymous text on some telegram channel?

The argument isn't that everyone in Kherson is against Russia. Even if we generously assume that some of the people in Russian propaganda videos are not just actors, it in no way means that the majority of people in Kherson like Russian presence. It can both be true that Russia has found one or two pro-Russian collaborators to pose for the camera, and that Russian occupiers are feeling that the locals hate them.

Sure, writing a piece of text is easy. But there's no reason to assume it's not real (because many on Russian side seem to agree with it) and it matches pretty well with many other sources. A big clue is also that propaganda is often too one-sided, and too sensationalist. As for other accounts supporting the claim that Kherson people don't like the occupiers, take this interview with an Ukrainian who lived in Nova Kakhokva throughout the invasion and escaped in August:

WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

Russian-English language translation of intercepted call & other materials from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to improve understanding of the conflict for the broader Western audience.

wartranslated.com

What about the locals, is there any way you could indicate how many people in Nova Kakhovka support Ukraine and Russia? I realise there is never anything black and white, but could you give an approximate percentage number for the support of both countries?

Well, initially, in the first 2-3 months the support for Ukraine was high taking into account those who don’t mind either. It was probably just a few percent for Russia. But now, given that over half of the city has left…

So only the pro-Russian people have stayed?

Actually, no, not at all. If only those supporting Russia have stayed, the AFU wouldn’t be so careful and accurate with their strikes. My wife still has some contact with pro-Ukrainian people who stayed, those people continue helping the AFU, some help with adjusting strikes, and others are simply communicating with each other, happy about new arrivals on Russian positions, or taking photos of them.

Some of my family members are still in Nova Kakhovka, they support Ukraine despite being Russian. They don’t even know Ukrainian too well. They were forced to get humanitarian aid as they had no money for anything after the post office in Kherson was captured by Russians and the pension from Ukraine stopped coming. Internet banking was also blocked. You cannot cash out easily. They are trying to adapt… but they are waiting for Ukraine to return. They say it is fine if they get bombed, they haven’t much to lose. It’s both sad and joyful, on the one hand, you are scared for them, but on the other…

Does that mean you can generally say that people are waiting for Ukraine to return?

Yes! Right now, I think the ratio is about 50/50, since what started happening recently is that all this Russian propaganda began affecting people, and Ukraine has been gone for a while, so even if people get the smallest thing, it comes from Russia. Some people are losing their minds.

When there are multiple accounts from various sides telling the same story, lies and propaganda fabrications become outliers.

Yes, they speak in russian and your media would not show it, let alone translate it.

Why would any real media give air time to obvious Russian propaganda? There are plenty of non-biased sources to use also.

 

[Jayjay]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

One more thing. Ask yourself this:

If it was propaganda aimed at Russians, why would it end with calls for harsher russification measures in the occupied territories? If you were an Ukrainian propagandist just making up the whole story, why not end it with an anti-war message?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?
I have posted a fair number of videos of people in the streets in Kherson region telling their opinion about Ukrainian regime.

Here is my problem. You've also posted that you thought the Ukrainians were hopeless and too indoctrinated, citing alleged quotes from some Ukrainians. So which is it? Your position on this particular issue appears to be based on argumentative necessity rather than the actual conditions in Ukraine and the Russian invasion of it.

And getting people to talk in front of a camera isn't exactly providing a broad view of the people. There were old people in front of the camera back in the Yeltsin days, yearning for communism to remain.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

One more thing. Ask yourself this:

If it was propaganda aimed at Russians, why would it end with calls for harsher russification measures in the occupied territories? If you were an Ukrainian propagandist just making up the whole story, why not end it with an anti-war message?

This can be reduced so much more. I'm not much to believe anything people say or show regarding Ukraine and Russia. It is way too simple to propagandize it. All this talk about Nazis is stupid. Anti-Semitism and racism is rich in the Balkan states and Russia. The idea that Russia has some sort purity from -isms is a joke.

What I do know is that Russia is still fighting in Ukraine, which means a lot more Ukrainians are against the Russian invasion than could possibly be for it. If they were enduring all of this suffering because of their Government, and didn't like it, there is a remedy to it. However, they seem to think the remedy to the current problem is across the border.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jayjay]

This is obviously bullshit.

Why would a general prance around in front lines, "disguised" as a colonel? And the people don't even look like each other. Look at the nose, ear, the (missing) birth mark on the cheek, eyebrows.

 

[Jayjay]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

One more thing. Ask yourself this:

If it was propaganda aimed at Russians, why would it end with calls for harsher russification measures in the occupied territories? If you were an Ukrainian propagandist just making up the whole story, why not end it with an anti-war message?

This can be reduced so much more. I'm not much to believe anything people say or show regarding Ukraine and Russia. It is way too simple to propagandize it. All this talk about Nazis is stupid. Anti-Semitism and racism is rich in the Balkan states and Russia. The idea that Russia has some sort purity from -isms is a joke.

Granted, the "nazi" connection was a bit tenuous. A story distributed over channels of mercenary group with a leader who once said he was a nazi, is like playing six degrees of Kevin Bacon, if Kevin Bacon was a nazi.

But that wasn't the point. The point was that it was a story from Russian side, which gives insight to how the occupiers (some of them anyway) see themselves and the Ukrainians. I don't think it's propaganda, but if it is, I'd like to see some evidence to support that claim before complete dismissing it. We can't just categorically ignore everything coming out of Ukraine or Russia as propaganda. Rather, we should try to see as many accounts as possible, and some common themes will emerge. Truth tends to be consistent, but lies and fabrications all contradict each other.

 

[Harry Bosch]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

One more thing. Ask yourself this:

If it was propaganda aimed at Russians, why would it end with calls for harsher russification measures in the occupied territories? If you were an Ukrainian propagandist just making up the whole story, why not end it with an anti-war message?

This can be reduced so much more. I'm not much to believe anything people say or show regarding Ukraine and Russia. It is way too simple to propagandize it. All this talk about Nazis is stupid. Anti-Semitism and racism is rich in the Balkan states and Russia. The idea that Russia has some sort purity from -isms is a joke.

Granted, the "nazi" connection was a bit tenuous. A story distributed over channels of mercenary group with a leader who once said he was a nazi, is like playing six degrees of Kevin Bacon, if Kevin Bacon was a nazi.

But that wasn't the point. The point was that it was a story from Russian side, which gives insight to how the occupiers (some of them anyway) see themselves and the Ukrainians. I don't think it's propaganda, but if it is, I'd like to see some evidence to support that claim before complete dismissing it. We can't just categorically ignore everything coming out of Ukraine or Russia as propaganda. Rather, we should try to see as many accounts as possible, and some common themes will emerge. Truth tends to be consistent, but lies and fabrications all contradict each other.

How is it possible to "prove" that Ukrainians aren't Nazis?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Putin allies in Russia are finally starting admit Putlers mistakes and admitting losses in Ukraine:

MSN

Would love to hear Barbos's reaction to this.

 

[Jayjay]

How is it possible to "prove" that Ukrainians aren't Nazis?

Can't prove a negative. I think the burden of proof is on those who claim they are.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Granted, the "nazi" connection was a bit tenuous. A story distributed over channels of mercenary group with a leader who once said he was a nazi, is like playing six degrees of Kevin Bacon, if Kevin Bacon was a nazi.

I have no doubt there are anti-Semites fighting for Russia and Ukraine. That seems indisputable. The point is, it is a red herring. Russia isn't fighting a war against a fascist nation run by Neo-Nazis. If they were, anti-Semitism in Russia would be rare. But we know racism is very powerful in that country. So "Nazi" is just a nice convenient, if not dated, excuse for their aggression.

But that wasn't the point. The point was that it was a story from Russian side, which gives insight to how the occupiers (some of them anyway) see themselves and the Ukrainians. I don't think it's propaganda, but if it is, I'd like to see some evidence to support that claim before complete dismissing it. We can't just categorically ignore everything coming out of Ukraine or Russia as propaganda. Rather, we should try to see as many accounts as possible, and some common themes will emerge. Truth tends to be consistent, but lies and fabrications all contradict each other.

If it isn't professionally vetted, I don't care what was allegedly claimed.

 

[Harry Bosch]

How is it possible to "prove" that Ukrainians aren't Nazis?

Can't prove a negative. I think the burden of proof is on those who claim they are.

I'm far from a historian of Russia/Ukraine relations. But I have a Russian friend who claims that much of the Nazi nonsense from WW2. When German Nazis originally invaded Ukraine area, Ukrainians welcomed them in open arms as they absolutely sick of Russian rule. They looked at the Nazis as liberators. It didn't take long for the Nazi brutality to change this feeling though. But many Russians have harbored bitterness about this since WW2. Putin is playing on this meme. Ukrainians don't want to be ruled over by Russia. The sooner Russians understand this the better off they will be in the future.

 

[Elixir]

Putin allies in Russia are finally starting admit Putlers mistakes and admitting losses in Ukraine:

Would love to hear Barbos's reaction to this.

Prob'ly something like "Putin's allies are Nazis!"

 

[Jayjay]

Granted, the "nazi" connection was a bit tenuous. A story distributed over channels of mercenary group with a leader who once said he was a nazi, is like playing six degrees of Kevin Bacon, if Kevin Bacon was a nazi.

I have no doubt there are anti-Semites fighting for Russia and Ukraine. That seems indisputable. The point is, it is a red herring.

That I can agree on.

Russia isn't fighting a war against a fascist nation run by Neo-Nazis. If they were, anti-Semitism in Russia would be rare. But we know racism is very powerful in that country. So "Nazi" is just a nice convenient, if not dated, excuse for their aggression.

But that wasn't the point. The point was that it was a story from Russian side, which gives insight to how the occupiers (some of them anyway) see themselves and the Ukrainians. I don't think it's propaganda, but if it is, I'd like to see some evidence to support that claim before complete dismissing it. We can't just categorically ignore everything coming out of Ukraine or Russia as propaganda. Rather, we should try to see as many accounts as possible, and some common themes will emerge. Truth tends to be consistent, but lies and fabrications all contradict each other.

If it isn't professionally vetted, I don't care what was allegedly claimed.

To each their own. I like to browse through things that I know are mostly propaganda (e.g. twitter), to get a feel of where the winds are blowing. I also think it's made me better at seeing through it, and to counter false claims.

 

[steve_bank]

How is it possible to "prove" that Ukrainians aren't Nazis?

Can't prove a negative. I think the burden of proof is on those who claim they are.

I'm far from a historian of Russia/Ukraine relations. But I have a Russian friend who claims that much of the Nazi nonsense from WW2. When German Nazis originally invaded Ukraine area, Ukrainians welcomed them in open arms as they absolutely sick of Russian rule. They looked at the Nazis as liberators. It didn't take long for the Nazi brutality to change this feeling though. But many Russians have harbored bitterness about this since WW2. Putin is playing on this meme. Ukrainians don't want to be ruled over by Russia. The sooner Russians understand this the better off they will be in the future.

That is what I read in a book onthe the war in Russia. Initially they saw the Germans as liberators.

 

[TomC]

How is it possible to "prove" that Ukrainians aren't Nazis?

Can't prove a negative. I think the burden of proof is on those who claim they are.

There are US citizens who proudly describe themselves as Nazis and espouse the values and policies of Hitler.
So "Americans are Nazis" is demonstrably and literally true. But not everything that is technically true is especially important.
Tom

 

[steve_bank]

"American's are Nazis" infers all or a majority is Nazi.

What is correct is to say Neo-Nazis are a small extremist group within the United States.

Or 'There are Neo-Nazis in America".

 

[Elixir]

Or 'There are Neo-Nazis in America".

Or “there are Neo-Nazis in America and we’re not allowed to punch them in the nose”.