How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

Or 'There are Neo-Nazis in America".

Or “there are Neo-Nazis in America and we’re not allowed to punch them in the nose”.

That is the basic principle of the west in general. Even the ACLU back in the 80s or 90s defended the right of KKK and Neo Nazis to hold a parade.

I don't knw about France, I believe Germmanyy prohibits any Nazis symbolism and paraphernalia.

 

[lpetrich]

Recon Ghost Fella on Twitter: "Here’s a gif of the Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv Oblast from before the counteroffensive began 4 days ago until today. This is based on maps from @War_Mapper.
#Kharkiv #Ukraine #UkraineFrontLines #RussiaIsATerroristState #NAFO #UkraineWillWin #Kupyansk #Balakliia #Balaklia (pic link)" / Twitter

Ukraine's armed forces are now poking into Russian-held territory SE of Kharkiv, going Balakliya - Shevchenkove - Kupyansk at the N end of a long, thin reservoir, going 41 mi / 66 km.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "To the north of Kherson, forces took back control of Ternovi Pody. (pic link)" / Twitter
About 19 mi / 30 km north.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "Note that this is a very conservative estimate of the advance so far. I have a list of 20+ other settlements in this area awaiting confirmation. With so many claims I would rather be cautious, I'm sure we will get clarification in the coming days." / Twitter

A commendable response to the  Fog of war

 

[TV and credit cards]

Recon Ghost Fella on Twitter: "Here’s a gif of the Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv Oblast from before the counteroffensive began 4 days ago until today. This is based on maps from @War_Mapper.
#Kharkiv #Ukraine #UkraineFrontLines #RussiaIsATerroristState #NAFO #UkraineWillWin #Kupyansk #Balakliia #Balaklia (pic link)" / Twitter

Ukraine's armed forces are now poking into Russian-held territory SE of Kharkiv, going Balakliya - Shevchenkove - Kupyansk at the N end of a long, thin reservoir, going 41 mi / 66 km.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "To the north of Kherson, forces took back control of Ternovi Pody. (pic link)" / Twitter
About 19 mi / 30 km north.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "Note that this is a very conservative estimate of the advance so far. I have a list of 20+ other settlements in this area awaiting confirmation. With so many claims I would rather be cautious, I'm sure we will get clarification in the coming days." / Twitter

A commendable response to the  Fog of war

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

 

[Jayjay]

Recon Ghost Fella on Twitter: "Here’s a gif of the Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv Oblast from before the counteroffensive began 4 days ago until today. This is based on maps from @War_Mapper.
#Kharkiv #Ukraine #UkraineFrontLines #RussiaIsATerroristState #NAFO #UkraineWillWin #Kupyansk #Balakliia #Balaklia (pic link)" / Twitter

Ukraine's armed forces are now poking into Russian-held territory SE of Kharkiv, going Balakliya - Shevchenkove - Kupyansk at the N end of a long, thin reservoir, going 41 mi / 66 km.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "To the north of Kherson, forces took back control of Ternovi Pody. (pic link)" / Twitter
About 19 mi / 30 km north.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "Note that this is a very conservative estimate of the advance so far. I have a list of 20+ other settlements in this area awaiting confirmation. With so many claims I would rather be cautious, I'm sure we will get clarification in the coming days." / Twitter

A commendable response to the  Fog of war

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

At some point the pendulum will swing and Russian counter-attack is going to stop Ukraine. Also, I suspect that we spectators have too rosy a picture of what's actually going on. Russian war mappers have suddenly started to make very pessimistic projections, but that could just be a way to cope with the situation. The reality on the ground could very well be much less favorable than the maps show.

Or they could be more favorable for all we know. But I think it's better to err to the side of caution.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Recon Ghost Fella on Twitter: "Here’s a gif of the Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv Oblast from before the counteroffensive began 4 days ago until today. This is based on maps from @War_Mapper.
#Kharkiv #Ukraine #UkraineFrontLines #RussiaIsATerroristState #NAFO #UkraineWillWin #Kupyansk #Balakliia #Balaklia (pic link)" / Twitter

Ukraine's armed forces are now poking into Russian-held territory SE of Kharkiv, going Balakliya - Shevchenkove - Kupyansk at the N end of a long, thin reservoir, going 41 mi / 66 km.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "To the north of Kherson, forces took back control of Ternovi Pody. (pic link)" / Twitter
About 19 mi / 30 km north.

Ukraine War Map on Twitter: "Note that this is a very conservative estimate of the advance so far. I have a list of 20+ other settlements in this area awaiting confirmation. With so many claims I would rather be cautious, I'm sure we will get clarification in the coming days." / Twitter

A commendable response to the  Fog of war

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

At some point the pendulum will swing and Russian counter-attack is going to stop Ukraine. Also, I suspect that we spectators have too rosy a picture of what's actually going on. Russian war mappers have suddenly started to make very pessimistic projections, but that could just be a way to cope with the situation. The reality on the ground could very well be much less favorable than the maps show.

Or they could be more favorable for all we know. But I think it's better to err to the side of caution.

I don't disagree. Better to be pessimistic.

But I really want to see more of this:

Ukrainians Cheer Russia's Defeats After General Told Putin They Backed War

 

[barbos]

Here is my problem. You've also posted that you thought the Ukrainians were hopeless and too indoctrinated, citing alleged quotes from some Ukrainians. So which is it?

Yes, younger generation, who grew up in "independent" Ukraine.
I was surprised at utter historical retardation which was promoted by ukrainian school books.

And getting people to talk in front of a camera isn't exactly providing a broad view of the people. There were old people in front of the camera back in the Yeltsin days, yearning for communism to remain.

What do you mean they were? They still live. And pretending that they are irrelevant and is what west does. And by the way, Yeltsin would have lost elections to communists if it were not for US meddling and outright fraud, meaning he actually lost.
I don't deny that there are people in Eastern Ukraine who support Kiev regime, but they are minority.

 

[barbos]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

I think that I'd prefer to leave that up to the Ukrainians to decide. As far as I'm concerned, the Russians have earned zero good will in their favor to deserve zero sympathy.

Well, you are horribly wrong. Not surprising, considering that your media lies to you.

 

[barbos]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

One more thing. Ask yourself this:

If it was propaganda aimed at Russians, why would it end with calls for harsher russification measures in the occupied territories? If you were an Ukrainian propagandist just making up the whole story, why not end it with an anti-war message?

Dude, it was propaganda aimed at ukrainians and CNN.
And stop trying to find logic and rationality in ukrainian propaganda.
These people are stupid scam, they don't care if their propaganda is stupid, as long as they are paid they will keep doing. Arestovich himself said exactly that. Yep, he said exactly that.

 

[barbos]

If they were, anti-Semitism in Russia would be rare. But we know racism is very powerful in that country.

You are projecting again. You're always projecting what you see in US to other countries.
And don't bother with examples (soccer fans and shit) which you think refute my claim.
These retarded soccer fans merely emulate british soccer fans. Russia does not have blacks to be racist about, except of course soccer players
Same with Jews, it was all imported from Poland. Again, educate yourself.

 

[barbos]

Putin allies in Russia are finally starting admit Putlers mistakes and admitting losses in Ukraine:

MSN

Would love to hear Barbos's reaction to this.

Not a fan of Soloviev, who is interestingly a jew (since anti-semitism was mentioned here)
But I know that he is a die-hard hard-line propagandist. I can see him being unhappy with the soft military approach toward this "operation".

As for ukrainian "gains". Lets wait and see, Russia did not have much forces in these regions. Ukrainians basically drove through bunch of villages and towns with no opposition whatsoever. The same thing happened in spring, they were later expelled.
My suspicion it's just a massive PR stunt and ukrainian forces would pull back without even trying to hold to these places. If not, they will be exterminated.
Of course, NATO commanders may have big hopes about this new "cavalry" tactic.

 

[Jayjay]

This didn't come from Ukrainian propaganda, but telegram channel of "Rusich", a group of Russian neo-nazi mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Even the translator isn't Ukrainian, he's an Estonian living in UK.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

One more thing. Ask yourself this:

If it was propaganda aimed at Russians, why would it end with calls for harsher russification measures in the occupied territories? If you were an Ukrainian propagandist just making up the whole story, why not end it with an anti-war message?

Dude, it was propaganda aimed at ukrainians and CNN.

I cannot find any mention of it in CNN, or major news. Not sure if it's even published in Ukrainian news.

And it doesn't make any sense for propaganda that's aimed to Ukrainian or western audiences, to be distributed in Russian telegram groups, in Russian language, and to be apparently convincing enough that Russians themselves keep sharing it.

And stop trying to find logic and rationality in ukrainian propaganda.
These people are stupid scam, they don't care if their propaganda is stupid, as long as they are paid they will keep doing. Arestovich himself said exactly that. Yep, he said exactly that.

The point is that if it was a fabrication, it wouldn't be stupid. It would be impossibly well-crafted and so convincing that Russians shared it among themselves and agreed with its message of cracking down on Ukrainians in occupied territories... for some incredibly convoluted plot. That's why I know it's not propaganda.

Fact: You have given ZERO evidence to suggest the story was fabricated or propaganda. Heck, most of the things that that Russian occupier wrote is the same nonsense you're spreading here on this forum. How do we know you are not a product of Ukrainian propaganda aimed at western audiences to make Russians look bad?

 

[Jayjay]

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

Well that prediction didn't last long. It seems that both Kupyansk and Izyum have been liberated. Ukraine is having trouble keeping up with the pace Russian troops are withdrawing.

 

[Jayjay]

Here is my problem. You've also posted that you thought the Ukrainians were hopeless and too indoctrinated, citing alleged quotes from some Ukrainians. So which is it?

Yes, younger generation, who grew up in "independent" Ukraine.
I was surprised at utter historical retardation which was promoted by ukrainian school books.

Which is mostly bullshit promoted by Russian propaganda.

'Saviors of Ukraine': Russian textbooks littered with demonization of Ukrainians

***

www.haaretz.com

Following a review of 12 textbooks from the Russian and Ukrainian national curricula published between 2015-2021 – a period covering most of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict prior to this year’s full-scale invasion – the Jerusalem-based Institute for Monitoring Peace and Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se) concluded that Russian educational materials “are full of unsubstantiated, one-sided statements about the Ukrainian people and their government.”

Consistent with Russian messaging since the outbreak of war in 2014, and especially since this February’s invasion, Russian educational messaging portrays President Vladimir Putin and Russia as “saviors of the Ukrainian people,” the report found.

Ukrainian nationalism, it added, is frequently “described as being an extension of Western interests, rather than as a legitimate national sentiment” and Russian textbooks “cite Ukraine’s involvement in the Holocaust to claim that Ukrainian nationalism is inextricably linked with Nazism.”

(...)

According to researcher Anatoly Petrov, who examined the Russian textbooks for the study, the Russian authorities are on a “big mission of the dehumanization and demonization of the Ukrainian people” so “it’s not surprising that it’s the same in the textbooks.”

Although Ukraine isn't completely innocent either:

“(...) Ukrainian textbooks strive for objectivity but notably, fail to mention atrocities perpetrated by Ukrainians during the Holocaust, including the Babi Yar massacre of Jews and to explain Ukrainian collaboration with the Nazi regime.”

(...)

According to Maria Sokolovsky, the researcher who examined the Ukrainian textbooks, there was “a lot” of glorification of Bandera, who was presented as “just a person who was very pro-Ukrainian” whose “main goal and approach was just to free Ukrainian people.”

So while there are some inaccuracies in Ukrainian textbooks, they're still more objective than Russian ones.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

Well that prediction didn't last long. It seems that both Kupyansk and Izyum have been liberated. Ukraine is having trouble keeping up with the pace Russian troops are withdrawing.

I was wondering what was going on. ISW had a Sep. 9 update page up earlier and now it's pulled, showing Sep. 8.

 

[barbos]

I cannot find any mention of it in CNN, or major news. Not sure if it's even published in Ukrainian news.

So?

And it doesn't make any sense for propaganda that's aimed to Ukrainian or western audiences, to be distributed in Russian telegram groups

"In russian" != "russian" let alone pro-russian.
telegram channels are generally garbage. I mean if you don't know for sure you can trust it then it's most likely garbage.

The point is that if it was a fabrication, it wouldn't be stupid. It would be impossibly well-crafted and so convincing that Russians shared it among themselves and agreed with its message of cracking down on Ukrainians in occupied territories..

Bullshit. Total bullshit. It is 190000009% fabrication. ukrainian trolls shared it among themselves.

Fact: You have given ZERO evidence to suggest the story was fabricated or propaganda.

That's not how it works. I don't need to refute every single piece of ukro-nazi propaganda. I can show few cases and declare the rest as trash.

 

[barbos]

Which is mostly bullshit promoted by Russian propaganda.

Bullshit

 

[barbos]

So while there are some inaccuracies in Ukrainian textbooks,

inaccuracies??
You call 400 thousand years old Ukraine inaccuracy?

I thought these were jokes. But there is this thing called Chat Roulette and when this shit started it became popular and it turns out they were really teaching that garbage in schools. It really really made me mad and support this operation to the end.
As far as I am concerned all authors of these books should be caught, tried and send to prison to the rest of their lives.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Next Thursday and Friday, SCO in Uzbekistan. Putin to meet with Xi Jinping. I expect Putin will be staring at his shoes the whole time.

 

[bilby]

Fact: You have given ZERO evidence to suggest the story was fabricated or propaganda. Heck, most of the things that that Russian occupier wrote is the same nonsense you're spreading here on this forum. How do we know you are not a product of Ukrainian propaganda aimed at western audiences to make Russians look bad?

That's a novel idea.

How do you know it's not ukrainians pretending to be that?

How do we know you're not a Ukrainian, pretending to be a hopelessly unbelievable Russian propagandist?

Certainly your contributions to date in this thread have served very effectively to bolster the general feeling that Russia are the baddies.

 

[barbos]

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

Well that prediction didn't last long. It seems that both Kupyansk and Izyum have been liberated. Ukraine is having trouble keeping up with the pace Russian troops are withdrawing.

You mean occupied... after russians left.
Russian strategy is different from ukrainian, russian forces are averse to man power losses, for obvious reasons.